Be The Power
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It definitely seems as though in our 250th year, the USA will stop being a functioning democracy. It definitely seems as though Trump will serve out his historical function and end American democracy.
This year is it, it’s over.
We will finally transition from an anocracy into a managed democracy / autocracy and that will be that. We will never have another free-and-fair election in my life time, if ever.
Good luck.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I fear America has entered an extended era of decline and there’s no going back, just like what happened with Argentina. I think what’s going to happen is because of the “K shaped” economy that the decline will be hidden for a long time.
The average wealthy person will be “what decline?” while the average poorer person will definitely sense it all around them.
As such, the smug media that is general directed at wealthy people and their problems won’t notice the decline as well.
I also think we need to keep an eye on the budget deficit. If we go bankrupt then al bets are off, the entire world may implode into chaos. And if you throw the potential rise of ASI into things, the next 10 years could be some of the most dramatic in human history.
But only time will tell, as the old song goes. It could be that we will, as always — to date — muddle through.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m reading a book about the death of Germany democracy in the days leading up to the Nazi take over in 1933 and I keep thinking about how much the MAGA movement is similar in its dynamic to the Nazis.
So, barring something really unexpected, I suspect MAGA will be the death of American democracy sooner or later.
But how?
Well, as far as I can determine, there are two main ways it happens.
One would be a major domestic terrorist attack. This would give Trump the cover he needs to seize control in a more direct manner than he has to date. If something as big as 9/11 happened under Trump’s watch I’m *sure* he would suspend elections and probably declare martial law.
The other way is not as exciting, but just as potent — it’s ultimately not Trump but his successor who snuffs out American democracy. I have a growing sense that it might be Ivanka Trump who is Trump’s hand-chosen successor and that she might be the “velvet fist” that ends American democracy.
She would be the happy face to while her actual administration might be done under the watchful eye of a fucking fascist like Stephen Miller. Something like that. Something whereby she ostensibly is a “friendly” MAGA while in fact the actual government is fascist in an unpresendent way.
Anyway, I just don’t see American democracy rebounding. At least not in my life time. It’s on a death watch — its in hospice, if you will — and soon enough we’ll be a true “managed democracy” like they have in Russia.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Instead of “making America great again,” Trump has decided to burn everything to the ground. At long last, the long predicted decline of the United States has actually demonstrably begun.
We’re just not the nation we used to be.
It definitely will be interesting to see how that decline plays out going forward. But it is happening. And it may just accelerate no matter what happens because of the series of events that Trump has set in motion.
I still think that it’s possible that Ivanka or Lara Trump will be Trump’s hand picked successor. Let the “good times” roll, as they say, I suppose.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
What’s going on at 60 Minutes makes no sense. None. Why “fix” something that doesn’t need to be fixed unless there is some ulterior motive? It seems pretty obvious that the whole point of the screw up at 60 Minutes is to placate Trump so the Warner Bros – Paramount merger can take place.
But, sad to say, I think there’s a broader issue at play — Trump is causing something akin of a revolution across American culture as he continues to consolidate power.
It definitely makes you wonder what might happen once Trump leaves the scene. I’ve heard some chatter that maybe Ivanka or Lara Trump might be Trump’s direct successor in 2028.
That would make a lot of sense.
But I think the key thing to remember is no matter what happens, America is changed because of Trump. There’s no going back. No amount of AOC presidency will bring the old America back.
We’re a nation in macro decline.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It definitely seems as though CBS’ 60 Minutes has rather abruptly imploded in the last few days. I mean, Nick Bilton as head of the storied news program just makes no sense.
This weird series of events makes me think of two things.
One, what the fuck happens once Trump is gone? It seems as though Trump will be, in hindsight, one of the meaningful political figures in America history. Up there with TR, FDR and LBJ. It’s really very unsettling.
Two, the issue of what is going to happen to the USA in a macro basis is something I really think about a lot. All the conditions are there for some sort of “Great Reset.” We seem to be careening towards a rather dramatic event that could be as big as the French Revolution, only on a global scale, given how interconnected the globe these days.
Anyway, I just hope things work out and we muddle through, like aways.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
As much as I want James Talarico to win the Texas U.S. Senate race…I just don’t see it happening. On paper, yes, but I just don’t know how his win is possible given that 2024 may have been the last free-and-fair election the USA may have ever had.
But I will note, that if Talarico wins in Texas, he will be the 2028 Democratic frontrunner for POTUS. To win in Texas as a Democrat is a Big Deal. I say this in the context of AOC being the obvious choice.
Yet sometimes I think given how fucked up everything is, we have to go the Hungary path if we ever want to live in a democracy again — have Democrats nominate someone like George Conway or Liz Chaney instead of AOC.
I still feel a little bit uneasy that there might be some sort of “reset” in the next 20 to 40 years. I don’t know how it would work out, but…who knows.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Oh boy. I have to accept that there is a greater-than-zero chance that the Trump Justice Department may come after even anonymous nobodies like me. I’m prepared for that to happen, even if it would s u c k.
The issue is, what’s the point of having principles if you aren’t willing to suffer for them? So, yes, it would be scary and frightening if I had to deal with the Justice Department then, that would be the consequences of my actions one way or another.
Maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe I’m really am such an anonymous nobody that I really am such a nobody that they won’t come after me.
I don’t know. I just don’t know. But I have to be brave, no matter what.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
As I understand it, the only way that Viktor Orban was defeated in Hungary was that his opponent was a break away conservative. So, as such, it seems like if Democrats are ever going to win again maybe they need to find someone who is conservative yet opposes Trump.
So, in a sense, maybe The Lincoln Project is going to be the source of any Democratic candidate that might actually have a chance of winning. America is a conservative nation with liberal ideals and we continue to drift towards a more and more conservative future.
As such, maybe someone like George Conway might be just the person to at least make sure the United States ensures a traditional liberal democracy for…a little bit longer?
I have no illusions that this might actually happen. In fact, I think we’re stuck with MAGA candidates and policies for the foreseeable future. We’re all kind of doomed.
Baring something really unexpected, I think America will continue to drift into being a more and more craven, idiotic place.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I think we have to come to grips with the fact that Trump’s second term is something of a revolution. There’s no going back. The whole tenor of the country is changing — not to mention the creation of a MAGA “Deep State” — in such a way that simply can not, will not be fixed no matter what.
America is in an extended period of decline.
The only question is, what happens next? Where do we end up after Trump FINALLY ends his reign of dumb terror.
I think, ultimately, the moment we get a young MAGA leader that that will be that. We will never have another free and fair election — or we will have about 20 years of MAGA leaders.
Now, there is one cavate.
The issue of the Singularity. I could see the Singularity so totally fucking with our political system that the traditional Left-Right divide is totally switched around. How, exactly, I don’t know.
But it’s very possible.
But it’s also possible that we’re just fucked. That at least for my lifetime we’ll have a series of MAGA leaders that make us sicker, dumber and poorer (except for plutocrats.)
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