Is The United States A Modern Austro-Hungarian Empire….Or The Ancien Regime?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is an unsettled place at the moment. We all sense that we’re careening towards a dark future, a momentous event of some sort that would start within the next 18 months.

But there are a lot of theories about what we should compare modern American to. Some people point to the collapse of the multi-ethnic Austro-Hungarian Empire at the end of WW1, while people like me see a closer analogy to the state of affairs with the French Ancien Regime in the days leading up to the French Revolution.

I just don’t see a comparison to the Austro-Hungarian Empire being adequate to explain what’s going on in the United States at the moment. The Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed because it was a bunch of small nations fused together. The United States, meanwhile, has a very clear sense of national unified national identity that is being frayed by a combination of a growing sense of white nationalism and more economic agency for women.

I do think that we face not one, but three main possible futures starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The first, most obvious, option is we peacefully slide into some sort of MAGA-themed autocracy. About 1 million smug, wealthy liberals leave the country and there is a total re-alignment of the post WW2 liberal global order as the United States leaves NATO and South Korea and forms an alliance with Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

The second, less likely option is Biden wins and Trump, in an effort to avoid going to prison, freaks the fuck out and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce. The country implodes into civil war. WW3 happens in conjunction with this and about 1 billion people die.

The third, far less likely option is a French Revolution type situation when Trump’s tyrannical, erratic behavior grows so unbearable to enough people that there is some sort of collective uprising against MAGA. The country breaks apart, but only in conjunction with the broader effort on the part of Blues to re-unite the country under a Third Republic. All of this might happen in the context of the U.S. Military stepping in at some point, as well.

But, in general, the issue is a number of macro trends are all heading to a conclusion around the same point in the future. What’s more it’s possible that we may be heading towards something akin to a “Petite Singularity” that would involve AI eliminating an unpreceded number of jobs a very short amount of time.

All of this is, of course, very speculative. Anything can happen in the future. I totally misjudged what happend with Trump in 2020. I can’t predict the future, but that doesn’t stop me from being….alarmed.

Mulling The Implications of Trump’s Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems these days that America has collectively given the fuck up. A solid 38% of the electorate hates democracy and wants the establishment of a white Christian autocratic ethnostate. As such, it makes one wonder what Trump’s second term might be like.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

I think a lot depends on if Democrats take the House in 2024 or not. I don’t think they will be a very effective check on Autocrat Trump, but there is a real chance that he will be impeached again for various dictatorial actions. And given all the pretty dark things we know Trump wants to do in his second term, it does make you wonder about if there are any conditions that might cause the Senate to convict.

The short answer, is, of course, no. And even if they did somehow convict Trump, I can only imagine that his veep would be even fucking worse than Trump for various reasons.

So, I think we have to accept that Trump’s second term will likely cause a significant center-Left brain drain out of the United States starting Election Day night. All those fucking smug Twitter liberals with their circle jerk podcasts will use their second passports to decamp to various places around the globe. We Poors will be forced to fend for themselves.

What’s more, I think early in Trump’s second term, the demand for a Constitutional Convention will reach a critical mass. Soon enough, a MAGA-run Constitutional Convention will reimagine the Constitution so it has MAGA Enabling Acts built into it.

Even before that happens, Trump will fire several hundred thousand members of the “deep state” in an illegal act that will produce chaos and will only eventually be sorted in the courts one way or another. But, lulz, Trump may just ignore whatever rulings go against his tyrannical desires.

And, really, there is one thing that Trump might do that could potentially cause his downfall — if he somehow manages to fuck with America’s self-perception of itself as a democracy. Just as the Romans hated kings, so, too, do Americans perceive themselves as a democracy, even if the MAGA fucktards babble on about how we’re “actually a constitutional republic.”

It is also possible that should Trump do what we all fear he will do — weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure — that a lot of well meaning Traditionalists who, to date, have supported Trump’s bonkers fascist policies might, at last, sit up and take notice because people close to them might be “disappeared.”

So, I think the weakness of apparently inevitable transition into a white Christian ethnostate will be in the implementation. If Trump rushes the final strangle of American democracy because he’s a fucking chaos agent, then it’s possible there COULD be some sort of popular revolt against his tyranny. But that’s very, very speculative.

There are just way too many known unknowns. In general, America is probably going to peacefully transition into a white Christian ethnostate. But….it’s at least possible that something rather historic might happen if Trump manages to fuckup or decent into that new form of government.

Who knows.

Life In Weimar America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is far less stable than any of us realize. All the conditions exist on a macro basis for a dramatic shift in everyday life in the United States starting in late 2024, early 2025. The only question is, of course, what shape that dramatic shift will take.

I can’t predict the future. I just don’t know.

At the moment, it seems as though the United States is going to go from the middle status between democracy and autocracy known as anocracy to shifting into full blown autocracy like exists in varying degrees in Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

And it’s not like MAGA Nazis are hiding that sort of transformation is their goal They want the United States to be an autocratic state of blood and soil. They want a one party state. They want to “burn it all down” to the point that the United States leaves NATO, pulls troops out of South Korea and potentially goes so far as to form some sort of alliance with Russia.

But for how big and diverse the United States is, I would say it was all over but the shouting for such a dystopian hellscape to happen. Add to this volatile mix how stupid and lazy Trump is and you have a recipe for fucking disaster. There is at least a small chance that Trump bungles our transition into a full-blown autocracy and there is some sort of “Resistance Revolution” bent on toppling his regime.

And, yet, as I keep saying, I just don’t see that happening — the smug, wealthy Twitter liberals who would lead such a revolution will be too busy using their second passports to worry about the fate of us Poors.

Meanwhile, if the Good Guys “win,” and we think we’ve punted our problems down the road another four years, there is a really good chance that Trump will single-handedly, unto himself, cause a “National Divorce” because he doesn’t want to go to jail.

The point is — late 2024, early 2025 has the potential to live up to its billing as the so-called point at which the “Fourth Turning” will happen. All the conditions, on a systemic basis, are there for absolute chaos to erupt in the United States between Election Day and Certification Day, no matter who the fuck wins.

And, yet, who knows. I didn’t predict the “third way” that we managed to squeeze out in 2020 – 2021, so it’s at least possible that MAGA really is all talk and they just don’t have it in them to burn the country to the ground if they don’t get what they want.

But things aren’t looking so great in late 2023.

The Real Threat In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for late 2024, early 2025 has nothing to do with another January 6th type situation. The real danger is that, on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has grown so radical that if Trump somehow magically manages to lose the 2024 election that they will begin to leave the Union.

As such, people who are focusing on some sort of repeat of January 6th are totally missing the point. The is a real risk of a Second American Civil War if Trump loses in 2024.

Let me be clear — at the moment, in July 2023 — I just don’t see Trump losing. He’s going to win and he — and his successor — will lurch American into a Russian-style autocracy. I say this because Trump’s fate remains in the hands of 60,000 voters in five swing states.

That’s it.

So, baring something I can’t predict, Trump is the next president of the United States and he’s going to be a tyrant and a thug in ways that are unprecedented in American history. And, remember, Biden is very old. And history is replete with instances where the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen, happens.

So it is VERY EASY to imagine that Biden, tragically, shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between when the 2024 ballots are printed and Certification Day. If such a thing happened, mass chaos would ensue. The last time any such thing happened was in 1872 and the solution wasn’t great — they equally distributed the dead guys Electoral Votes among everyone else.

Yikes!

Anyway, if Trump does somehow manage to lose, there is a real risk that we’re going to have a civil war. The greatest, most powerful nation in the world, is going to destroy itself because of “vibes.”

The other alternative is, of course, Trump wins and we have something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.” I seriously doubt such a thing would happen — too many of the people who would otherwise spear head such a historic event will simply bounce — but it’s at least possible, I guess. If it happened, Blues across the country would actively work to prevent tyrant and thug Trump from becoming president.

If we’re lucky, it would be a “Glorious Revolution” if we’re not…oh fucking boy.

Taking The Prospect Of A ‘Resistance Revolution’ in Late 2024 – Early 2025 Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I hate violence! So, think of this as just some mental masturbation that is toying with the abstract idea of there being some sort of “Glorious Revolution” in the United States in late 2024, early 2025 in reaction to the ding-dong thug and tyrant Trump becoming POTUS again.

First, the reason why I’ve latched on to the idea of a “revolution” rather than a “civil war” is, lulz, I don’t want to leave the US. I love America and what I want is an opportunity found a Third American Republic, not build a new, separate one from scratch.

It’s take me a loooooong time to realize what it was I wanted. It took so long because I was confused and distracted by all the talk about a “National Divorce.” It took me a long time to realize that I don’t want a National Divorce! I just want the opportunity to force through some much-needed political reforms.

So, in my mind a “Resistance Revolution” would begin not with a lot of Blue States deciding to leave the Union, but something far more broad in scope. The issue would not be state level objection to the establishment of “Trumplandia” but, rather millions of individuals across the country take a stand and refusing to allow a tyrant ding-dong like Trump from seizing and consolidating power in the first place.

But as I keep saying, I just don’t think that’s even going to come anywhere near happening. At the moment, at least, it just doesn’t seem viable. Trump is going to win in 2024 and we turn into a MAGA Nazi-themed autocracy soon there after.

I just hope my Trump-branded concentration camp has Wifi.

I Don’t Think People Realize How Serious The Stakes of The 2024 Election Are

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the 2016 election is people voted for an autocrat and what they got was a dumb, lazy, ding-dong who had no idea what he was doing. He just thrashed around, yelling to the point that he could not do something as simple as steal the 2020 election.

F

With that in mind, he and his toadies, according to The New York Times, have decided to do all kinds of things in 2025 once they’re in power again. Apparently, they’re going to purge the government of the “deep state” and pretty much turn us into Russia.

As such, late 2024, early 2025 is probably going to be lit. The issue is, what are we going to do about it? At the moment, I think nothing is going to happen. Smug, wealthy liberals will use their second passport they got through their refugee grandparents and simply flee the country — probably Europe. So, there will be a massive America diaspora that could radically change world culture. I just don’t think the people who would lead any “Blue Revolution” or “Resistance Revolution” have it in them to do it.

But I suppose there is a greater-than-zero-sum possibility that something like that might happen. I hate violence to much to support any such thing, but on a purely abstract basis, it is an intriguing possibility. I continue to worry about Mike Flynn’s brother, who in charge of U.S. Pacific Command. If there was any sort of “Resistance Revolution” he would be in a position to help squash it. UGH.

The crazy part of all of this is even if The Good Guys win in 2024, there is a good chance that rather than a revolution, we’ll have a civil war as Reds decide to leave the Union.

The point is — my long-held prediction that late 2024, early 2025 is going to be a shitshow is holding up.

The Myth That Joe Biden Missed An Opportunity To Be A ‘Statesman’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the news that the U.S. economy is doing exceptionally well, despite the “vibes” telling us everything sucks, I’m reminded by how people on the Right have complained that Biden has been to partisan.

People who talk like this obviously pretty much just want Biden to be something he’s not — “statesman” is code for “Joe Manchin.” Given how divided the country is, and how 38% of the Republican electorate is all-in on the idea of fascism…I just don’t see how Biden becoming some darling of the non-existent Center would have worked.

Yes, he could have said he wasn’t going to run again. And, yes, he could have muted some of his more center-Left policy movies…but who would have that placated? You have an entire MAGA bullshit echochamber designed specifically to juice the MAGA base at any perceived “woke” slight.

As such, Biden would be pretty much only making the Green Room at Face The Nation happy if he tried to “statesman” route. The country is tearing itself apart and we’re either going to become a MAGA-themed autocracy or we’re going to start blowing shit up.

I think and hope we just become an MAGA autocracy. I hate violence too much to think otherwise. But there is a real risk that the most powerful nation in the world is going to destroy itself over “vibes.”

My ‘Revolutionary’ Agenda

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a nobody. But I do like to make abstract concepts concrete and here is what my “revolutionary” agenda would be if I had the power, should Blues have a revolution starting in late 2024 – early 2025. Remember, I’m assuming this happens after Blues have won a Blue Revolution. So, these would be taken care of via Constitutional Amendments.

SCOTUS Reform
I would increase the size of SCOTUS to 13 to match the number of Federal circuits. I would also require retirement ages for Justices. I would also have a very strict code of ethics for the court too.

Mandatory Financial Disclosure
This is specific so someone like Trump would have to release his taxes.

Sitting Presidents Would No Longer Be Above The Law
I would make it clear in the Constitution that someone like Trump could be criminally charged, even if they were in office.

Mandatory Mental Evaluation
This would be specifically so someone bonkers like Trump could not allowed to run for POTUS or be POTUS.

End to Gerrymandering
This would really help make political life in the United States better.

Increase the size of the House
This is a simple reform that would have a huge change in our politics for a number of reasons.

Public financing of elections
I would have very strict public financing laws built into the Constitution so a lot of the problems we currently have would no longer exist.

Limit the length of Election cycles
I would figure out a way to limit how long the election cycle was allowed to last.

Eliminate the Electoral College
This would really help fix a lot of problem in modern American politics.

Limited Second Reconstruction
Red States that fought — and lost — the Second American Revolution would be reconstructed to be more democratic — I’m looking at YOU fucking Texas.

Constitutional Convention
I would see this as an option only if there were safeguards in place to prevent it from going rouge.

MAGA Is A Bunch Of Pussies — In The End, It Will Be Blues You Have To Worry About

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here is a two stage scenario whereby America….uhhhh….has a kind of bumpy historical moment?

Stage 1
Trump wins in November 2024 and it becomes clear he’s going to be a tyrant. So exercising their Constitutionally protected right to Revolution, Blue States — and Blues across the country — work actively to topple “Magadonia.” There’s a functioning General Strike. Blue States actively work to overthrow Trump’s tyrannical reign. Because of how conflicted things are, the U.S. Military — except, maybe, Mike Flynn’s brother who controls the Pacific Command — stays out of all of this. It all happens pretty quickly and a Constitutional Convention is called with the specific purpose of renewing our democracy. The reforms implemented are fair and equitable.

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Stage 2
The PROBLEM is, that MAGA cocksuckers will freak out and because they want to fuck their guns, they do a counter-revolution just as we all think everything is figured out — we have a secession crisis. Then, well, things get totally out of control and before you know it, America looks like Afghanistan.

Good job, everyone!

Anyway. I can’t predict the future. But I do think we should keep an eye on Blues just as much as Reds. I do think — and hope — that we’ll just peacefully slip into a MAGA themed autocracy without any violence. Too many wealthy, smug liberals won’t stand their ground to be the leadership of a Blue Revolution. So, lulz.

Could The +60% Of The American Population That Hates MAGA Topple The ‘Magadonia’ Regime In A Glorious Revolution In Late 2024, Early 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a revolution rather than a civil war should Trump win re-election is it wouldn’t involve any sort of dumb National Divorce. It would be people all over the country working together to bring down a tyrant. There are a lot of complicated problems with such a scenario.

First is — I hate violence and the whole thing could spiral out of control, no matter how peaceful and “Glorious” such a Revolution might be. Add in how even a quick, peaceful Glorious Revolution in the United States would probably both spark WW3 AND cause the DPRK to lob a few nukes our way and…oh boy.

What’s more, the very people who we would need to topple the incoming tyrant Trump…already have their second passports lined up and will flee the country at the first hint of trouble. They’re smug, wealthy and don’t give a shit about The Poors — that is, people like me.

Anyway, the whole situation sucks. I just want to live in a liberal democracy and it definitely seems as though but for us not having a Republican president at the moment — those days are over. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat –an anocracy.

And I really think I’m being delusional to think Americans care enough to do anything about Trump. He’s so dumb and lazy that he is probably going to thrash around in his second term and cue up his successor who will REALLY be our first autocrat.

I just hope I can somehow — somehow — get out of the country before ICE tracks me down and murders me in cold blood, probably by throwing me out a window.