Tag: House Trump

We Have To Be Willing To Risk Things In The Real World Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to sound so dark and dystopian. I wish I could give you “hope” that somehow, some way House Trump will be defeated in the fall and we can go back to “normal.” Sadly, there’s no metric I can point to that suggests that. Everything points to a spectrum of autocratic rule.

On one end, House Trump “wins” reasonably easily. If that’s the case, then we will continue or gradual drift towards an autocratic managed democracy. We’ll look back, rightly, at Trump’s acquittal by the Senate as the end of the First Republic. On the other end of the spectrum there’s a civil war of some sort. The more difficult it is for House Trump and its enablers to maintain power, the more radical they will become for no other reason than they’ll be desperate and won’t care what they have to break to keep power.

I continue to talk to liberals who are completely delusional about all of this. They scoff that Trump has it in him to do anything so drastic. What they miss is while Trump is a criminally incompetent autocrat, he’s still an autocrat that has a personality cult to back him up and absolutely no institution with the power to check his craven need to protect his own hide.

We have to begin to think about some pretty basic concepts about what it means to be American. Just like how the Roman Empire gradually declined and then fell really, really fast, so, too, will the First Republic go. Americans are simply too divided and / or apathetic to do anything, in real terms, about House Trump. The logic necessary for House Trump and MAGA to run roughshod over the Constitution in an effort to stay in power is already there.

As such, there’s going to come a point when the milquetoast “resistance” on social media is going to be faced with some very real world decisions. I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas, but I’m absolutely never fucking shutting up about the tyranny of House Trump. If that means I get snatched off the street or pushed out a window by ICE or Little Green Men, so be it.

The cold, hard reality that America is now nothing more than a fascist state does give one pause for thought. The simple act of not shutting up, no matter what, about House Trump’s tyranny will soon enough be a radical act. The whole thing is rather unexpectedly existential. I mean, all I want to do is exercise my 1st Amendment right to free speech.

Once House Trump purges the media of all the “fake news,” then lulz, I’m going to be in serious, serious trouble. How is anyone going to know that people are being pushed out of windows if there’s no press to report it?

I keep thinking about the original “V” miniseries about lizard people aliens taking over the world. There was an old woman who fought back in her own personal way as it became clear who the “visitors” really were. And, I guess that’s my fate if the worst happens. I’ll figure out some way to do my part to help whatever meager “resistance” there may be to the tyranny of House Trump in the coming years.

It will definitely be interesting to see how, exactly, things shake out. I guess in the end there will be some sort of alliance with Russia as the United States pulls out of NATO. That will be interesting.

But, if anything, I’m a survivor.

The Twilight Of The First American Republic



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The First American Republican is now in its final days, its twilight. House Trump has been established and there’s nothing to stop its final consolidation of power. The coming 2020 election won’t even be a speed bump to this inevitability. At this point, the only issue is on what end of the spectrum will House Trump’s victory be.

Will it on Election Day or soon there after, or will it be a few months later when House Trump forces the issue via a civil war. I guess if you wanted to be extremely optimistic, you might suggest that there’s a chance House Trump might lose such a civil war, but I seriously doubt it. House Trump always wins no matter what, so why should a civil war be any different?

The easier it is for House Trump to win the 2020 Election, the longer this final twilight period in the First Republic’s existence will linger. In the end result will be the same, however — America will be an autocratic managed democracy and a vassal state of Russia, to boot.

The media is going to be purged. People across the country will simply vanish. And those opponents of House Trump who don’t vanish will be pushed out a window. The only way any one living in the Trumplandia will know this happened is because of reports from the BBC and others. The once vibrant press in the former United States will be dead.

A Constitutional Convention will be convened and House Trump vision of America will be codified once and for all. All of this will last for about 40 years until long-term demographic trends are simply too powerful for House Trump and it becomes possible that some sort of Second Republic may struggle out of the rubble of the First. But even that is iffy.

In the 2021-2022 timeframe, Trumplandia will leave NATO and sign an alliance with Russia. Ironically, this will allow the peaceful long-term ascent of China on the world stage as Trumplandia gradually begins to pull its forces back to the homeland. America First, after all.

This is our future. The details my be wrong, but in general, all that is America’s future. We just can’t see it because it’s on the macro historical scale. I’m not saying I have any sort of reveled truth, but it seems pretty obvious to me America is a fascist state.

I simply don’t see anything possibly stopping House Trump from consolidating power at a rapid clip.

Prove me wrong.

The Curious Case Of Joe Rogan


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is one stolen election away from formally becoming an autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia. One of the more curious media phenomena in this politically overheated moment in our history is Joe Rogan.

Now, let make it absolutely clear that this “media commentary’ on my part is cursory and breezy. I’m just using what I feel I know off the top of my head, so I’m going to be rather fuzzy about some details.

But, anyway, in general, it seems as though Rogan wants it both ways. He was main stream acceptability, while at the same time refusing to pick a side in the political division America finds itself in. He wants to, with a wink and a nod, support MAGA without coming out and saying it. He hides behinds a facade of masculine earnestness, which is why he has earned the nickname “Oprah for Dudes.”

He knows that if he can have a thin veneer of main stream credibility, his cultural relevance will be significantly greater. But it seems to me that this whole thing is a massive cop-out. There simply is no credible reason not to pick a side and this point. Besides, we all know if push comes to shove Rogan is MAGA.

Which raises an interesting question.

Now that the United States is a fascist state, is it possible that Rogan is playing the long game? He’s a young guy, if he plays his cards right he could very well find himself in line to be far, far close to the Oval Office than any of us could possibly otherwise imagine.

It might be a decade or so before House Trump allows anyone other than a Trump to be president, but the possibility is very real. Things will be so dark by then, of course, that Rogan may be one of the few independent voices left in the media, period.

Anyway, Rogan is a reasonably good interviewer. The only real problem I have with him is he’s kind of a media gateway drug to the Alt Right and Qanon.

The Politics Of Fascist America



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is now fascist. This started the moment Trump was aquitted by the Senate. Trump is going to brazenly and successfully steal the 2020 Election in rather astonishing fashion.

In fact, his theft of the 2020 Election may be so staggering in its autocratic nature that it, in itself, may lead to another impeachment. But, obviously, American politics is now so broken that even if we all know Trump stole the election that there simply will not be the political will necessary to do anything about it.

So, that leads to an interesting question: what will the politics of Trump’s stolen, fascist term be like?

This is all very nebulous for a number of reasons. We know general trends, but the specifics of this absolute certain future remain difficult to predict. Once Trump is successfully in his stolen second term, it would make sense that he goes after the last institution that has any ability to check him: the press.

Once he uses his “German Industrialist” allies to buy up and the purge the free press, House Trump’s consolidation of power will accelerate considerably. He obviously is going to start ranting about the need for a Constitutional Convention and without a free press to slow him down, he’ll get it.

This leads to another, more specific question: how bad are things going to get?

Well, there’s a real chance that things could get far, far worse than any of us can possibly imagine. I say this because of Qanon. Once Qanon is the central tenant of the Republican Party, there’s every reason to believe House Trump will use this darkly vicious loony idea to use ICE to round up any and everyone they don’t like and put them in a camp — or push them out a window.

Remember, history is very, very strange at times. So, I would go so far as to suggest that Trump “unbound” will mean there are American Killing Fields. Using the support of the now completely Qanonized Republican Party, House Trump will murder in cold blood any and everyone they disagree with in a rather breathtaking fashion.

Given the momentum involved and the size of the population, I would estimate the death toll could begin to creep up to 10 million, maybe more. This is our future, this is going to happen. We might pause it now and again, but the conditions for this nightmare to happen are locked in.

Now, I will admit that sounds rather hysterical. But I simply can’t imagine any possible scenario where Trump in his second term doesn’t burn everything to the ground. The forces that he has unleashed are far more powerful than his ability to control them and, as such, watch out.

There is also a chance that a number of Blue States will be converted to military districts and Congress (and the courts) will be purged of anyone seen as not loyal to House Trump.

I could be wrong. I hope I am. If Trump doesn’t do all that and we simply drift into a quasi-autocrat situation, I could see the center-Left radicalizing much the way the center-Right in America did during Obama’s second term. So much so that by 2024, someone like Jon Stewart might run for office.

But it’s extremely difficult to sketch out anything that far out. All I know is, all signs point to House Trump ruling Trumplandia for around 40 or more years and then demographics being such that a new nation of some sort arising from the rubble of the United States.

It probably will be far smaller than the United States and the Blue States will hunker down to a Singularity of MAGA.

I hope I’m wrong with the dystopian nightmare I predict above. I really do. Something pretty spectacular that I simply can’t predict would have to happen, however. The macro trends are simply too powerful at this point for that not to be the case.

Life After COVID19: A New Era Is About To Begin (One Way Or Another)



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since the end of WWII there have been a number of major eras in the United States. They go something like this:

1945-1963
1963-1974
1974-1981
1981-1991
1991-2001
2001-????

The argument could be made a new era started either in 2009 with the Obama Administration or 2017 with the Trump Administration. And, yet, several of those post-war eras ended or began with a rather dramatic extra-political event that happened totally out of the blue without warning.

As such, a pretty strong argument could be made that no matter what else happens in the near future, the COVID19 pandemic, in itself, marks the delination between eras. And, yet, given the political instability in the United States right now, you could also make the argument that not until we finally figure out who POTUS is will the actual new era begin. No matter what happens with the election, we’re in for a new era.

If Trump wins (which he will by brazenly stealing the election), then we’re REALLY in a new era because, lulz, any and all pretense of America being a “free” country will end. We’re going to be nothing more than a managed democracy like they have in Russia and a new, darker era will have begun. Or, actually, if you wanted to be more technical about it, in hindsight, we’ll say that the “new era” began when Trump was acquitted by the Senate and everything else was simply us catching up to what happened.

Things grow far more complicated if Biden somehow miraculously wins despite Trump throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the election to steal it.

I say this because then the macro trends that have led to us finding ourselves in this clusterfuck to begin with will be momentarily paused, or at least become less obvious while we all sigh a huge sigh of relief. We’ll probably have a few months to enjoy a return to “normal” before House Trump strikes back in some way and fucks everything up again.

When, exactly, the over due “new era” begins will thus be far more muddled and difficult to pinpoint at the time. We’ll mark the “before times” of before the pandemic, but it won’t be until House Trump comes roaring back in some way that the thing that was going to happen anyway — fascist America — happens.

I still contend that the only way House Trump doesn’t formally establish Trumplandia is something so unexpected and tragic that no one, regardless of political point of view, will be very happy about it. Whatever it is would have to be jaw dropping. Something along the lines of President Ivanka screwing up a war with the DPRK and being blamed for millions of deaths. (That may very well happen with her dad in his stolen second term, but, lulz.)

Anyway, the point of all of this is America is a fascist state and we’re deluding ourselves for a few months while we wait for Trump to steal the 2020 Election.

Most of my posts to this blog these days begin with hope then simply return back to a very dark reality — the moment Trump was acquitted by the Senate, he attained absolute political power in the United States and there’s not a goddamn thing we can do about it.

I say this in the context of knowing Trump is a huge self-own artist and he’s literally the only person who could somehow screw up the absolute certainty that the United States becomes little more than a vassal state of Russia.

An Update On The #Novel



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are going well with the novel. I’m just about to reach the point of the novel where there’s a huge hole in the outline, so things are going to slow down a little bit.

But my deadline is wrap up the first draft is still Election Day, so I’m going to think of something. I’m quite pleased with how smooth things are going as of right this moment. Things are really beginning to fall into place in a way I’m comfortable with.

I’ve figured out my own style of development and what I want to say. As such, things are moving at a pleasant clip.

Since I ABSOLUTELY believe Trump is going brazenly steal the 2020 Election, the themes of the novel should be quite popular should I ever manage to sell it. I do have a little bit of unease that fascist House Trump may crack down on free speech so much just about when I’m trying to sell the book that it won’t happen, even if I do a really good job otherwise.

But I believe in my heart that there is a little bit of a window of opportunity for this novel. There might be just enough time before the final boom falls on the First Amendment that I might find a modicum of success.

I have to think of something to keep me going.

Fascist America: Of Trump’s Taxes



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have come to believe that on a political level, at least, there’s absolutely nothing stopping from Trump from his final consolidation of power. The great irony is, of course, that Trump is extremely bad at being an autocrat. This leads to a lot of people lulzing the process of America becoming an managed democracy like Russia.

But let’s talk about Trump’s taxes in this context.

There are a number of ways to look at all of this. On one hand, you could definitely posit that the whole thing is a sham. It’s not that there’s anything all that scandalous in them, it’s just Trump doesn’t want to release them and he’s willing to fight until the end of time to do it. Under this theory, the worst thing we might find in them is that Trump simply isn’t a very “liquid” billionaire. The whole thing is a facade. Some people think that would be a mortal political blow for House Trump, but now that we have Qanon people running around, I doubt this very much.

The other theory is that something REALLY BAD is in his taxes. Like, something that would prove something criminal or implicate Trump in having a fiduciary reason for loving Putin so much.

But, really, even that would be a lulz at this point.

I don’t think people appreciate how dark things are on an existential level in the United States. We’re a fascist state and have been since Trump was acquitted by the Senate. The usual political rules of a liberal democracy simply don’t exist anymore and Trump is going to brazenly steal the 2020 election no matter what, so lulz.

In a sense, you could even argue that if Trump really was the political genius that Maggie Haberman says he is, that he would release his taxes on his own and then laugh in everyone’s face as nothing, absolutely nothing, happen, no matter what is in them.

We’re simply too divided and too much of the electorate too apathetic for anyone’s minds to be changed by anything that happens between now and election day. The battle lines are drawn and Trump is going to use everything in his power to steal the election, anyway, so the entire thing is moot.

Everything is moot. Nothing matters. We’re a fascist state.

Apocalypse America: Why A Civil War Is The Ultimate Endgame Of The 2020 Election



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, autocrats never lose. The reason for this is they fight dirty and don’t give a shit about what you think. All they care about is still having power when the sun sets.

The issue is, Democrats are STILL delusional about the lengths House Trump will go to to stay in power. So, it’s painfully clear that a civil war or military coup is in America’s near future.

Get used to it.

Let me put this in context.

It could very well be that for various reasons, House Trump cruises to an easy victory. We know election night or soon there after that House Trump is victorious and that’s that. The final consolidation of power will take place at a fast clip, only slowed by Trump’s innate incompetence. America’s final decent into tyranny will be gradual, culminating in a Constitutional Convention after House Trump has purged the media of all opposition voices.

But suppose that doesn’t happen.

Suppose things aren’t settled — then what happens?

Well, because House Trump controls the levers of power, they will win. If it takes Interior Minister Bill Barr really pulling some crazy legal interpretations out of his ass to do it, it will happen. And, really, in the end, if all else fails, House Trump will force the issue and start a civil war of some sort. This will happen because both sides will believe absolutely their their guy won the election and then people will start killing each other.

Then there is the absolute last moment before total darkness falls — what will the U.S. Military do?

I honestly don’t know. But there’s a chance that in a desperate last gasp effort to keep the tradition of peaceful transitions of power, there might be some sort of Unity Government forced upon us by a reluctant American Military.

But, as I’ve said, that’s probably wishful thinking.

More likely what will happen is the U.S. Military will follow Trump’s orders because there is, in their eyes, some legal justification for it. Depending on how bad things get, I could see a number of major Blue States being turned into military districts such as we had during Reconstruction.

Then things that were going to happen anyway, will still happen a lot quicker and in a far more jarring manner.

The whole point of this is, barring something completely unexpected that I can’t predict, the bad guys have won. On a macro level, House Trump has been established. The moment Trump is sworn into his stolen second term, he will have served his purpose.

Some younger, more focused fascist like Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo will proceed to snatch people off the street, push them out of windows or send them to American Killing Fields.

This is our future.

This does make one wonder how long this dystopian hellscape will last.

I honestly don’t know. But it does seem that House Trump will have power for a solid 40 years. Once the last of the Baby Boomers drop dead, they’re demographic control over the country will begin to diminish. As things grow more unstable for them, it’s likely House Trump will grow ever more radical.

Then, really, it’s a matter of history simply being history and things like the Great Man theory kick in, or a fluke, or things I simply can’t predict.

The reason why I keep ranting about this is I want people to take our fate seriously. Stop trying to score points on Twitter and realize that for decades to come, your “resistance” to House Trump is going to involve risking things that are important to you in the real world, like your life, your family and your career.

Night has fallen on America. Our Republic is no more.

Struggling To Imagine A House Trump ‘Interregnum’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s only one thing that might, temporarily, end the reign of House Trump — Donald Trump. That’s it. I say this because there’s entire industry of sycophantic enablers, namely the Republican Party, that are all-in on defending and protecting the rule of The Thousand Year Trump. The Republican Party isn’t going anywhere, no matter how radical or insane it becomes. If anything, if Trump screws up and somehow is miraculously removed from office at some point, the party is going to grow even more radical and bonkers as a result.

But,simply to have some fun, let’s imagine there’s a House Trump Interregnum. What would it be like?

A lot depends, of course, on how it happens.

I’ve written about this before, but given how difficult it will be to ever remove Trump for office for any reason, we’re going to have to assume House Trump loses a short, but violent civil war of some sort. Or, something. Something I can’t predict would have to happen. But, the point is, House Trump will have taken a pound of flesh out of America’s psyche on its way out the door.

As an aside, the more I think about this subject, the more I realize how even contemplating this scenario is a ridiculous waste of time — House Trump has been established and is never going anywhere for any reason. America is Russia and Russia is America. We live in Trumplandia, not America.

But, let’s continue. I’ve gotten this far, I might as well finish the idea.

One of the many things Twitter Liberals are delusional about is the idea that somehow the Republican Party is going to “die” or deny Trump was ever president. This is crazytalk. The Republican Party is far more likely to embrace Trump as its new Ronald Reagan than anything else.

Remember, the base of the Republican Party is made up of a bunch of fucking fascists who see Trump as the Dear Leader. As such, even if the main stream media doesn’t cover Trump’s ranting as much because he’s not president, the party faithful will continue to listen to all his batshit insane rantings and act accordingly.

Remember, for the base, Trump gave them two things that they absolutely wanted — a plutocrat tax cut and 30% of the Federal bench being young, hack MAGA judges. That’s not going anywhere.

As such, after the shock of Trump being physically removed from the Oval Office wears off, there’s going to be some reflection on the part of the Republicans. Some will see MAGA as “the lost cause” that was foiled only because of the COVID19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, most of the others will see the Biden Administration as illegitimate. They will see the Biden Era as simply a House Trump Interregnum. A pause in the reign in the rightful rulers of Trumplandia, House Trump.

One darkly amusing thing about any possible Biden Administration is because America has been so inward looking during the reign of Mad King Trump I, when the Biden Administration begins to re-engage with the world in a normal manner, the rest of the world is going to look at us like we’re crazy. It’s been proven that the world can function quite well without America and so we’re going to have to get used to no longer being viewed as the “indispensable nation.”

Or, put another way, any House Trump Interregnum is going to be extremely surreal for a number of reasons.

But none of this is going to happen. Trump would rather burn everything to the ground and establish himself as a military dictator than ever leave office. Autocrats never lose, not even criminally incompetent ones like Trump.

Russians Are Going To Hack Directly Into Our Election Systems, Now What



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know for a fact that this is going to happen, but all signs point towards it — the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems at the behest of the Trump campaign.

The reason why I say this is two fold.

One, Trump has removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany. It’s a direct quid pro quo. Two, Trump is absolutely desperate to meet Putin in person before the election. It definitely sounds as though if they haven’t agreed to such a quid pro quo, Trump is going to beg in person to make it a reality.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where, much to our surprise, Trump wins on Election Night in pretty much the same way he did in 2016 — he loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College. There might be some isolated protests and a lot of gnashing of teeth, but we’ll all begin to process that American democracy has been murdered.

Then, gradually, after a few weeks, we start to hear rumblings about how some of the voter numbers don’t make any sense. Of course, Trump will do everything in his power to obstruct any investigation until after the Electors vote, so, lulz.

And that will be that.

I guess there are a few ways this pretty much perfect plot might go wrong for those involved. They might get greedy and fuck with the results in New York State in such a way that it begins to raise questions. Or Trump, who absolutely can’t keep a secret, might begin to allude to things that while they don’t make any sense because we don’t know the context, gradually people realize he’s confessing to stealing the election.

But there are some things to keep in mind, even if we realize the plot exists. One, autocrats always win. They don’t care about anything but power, so fuck you. No amount of protesting or pressure on social media will change the verdict. Also, there would be a pretty tight deadline for any of it to matter. Even if we found absolute proof that it happened, the same mechanisms that have saved Trump to date will be used yet again.

Really, the only teeny-tiny obstacle to Trump’s success in stealing the election this way is the Electors. And, even then, a lot of things would have to go wrong for House Trump in quick succession for that even to be an issue. And, as we all know, that never happens. Any problems Trump ever gets into are of his own making. There are no institutions strong enough to stop him at this point.

Of course, there is one last thing that might be an obstacle to House Trump’s final consolidation of power — a civil war. I don’t know how it would all work out, but we had absolute proof that Trump got the Russians to hack into our election systems, pretty much the only way it would matter is if there was significant violence. Not only would it have to be severe violence across the country, the U.S. Military would have to, in essence, stage a coup of sorts. I’m not in any way advocating that, I’m simply stating a cold hard fact. Also, there’s every reason to believe that if the American military was forced to get involved, they would take House Trump’s side.

A million people could protest peacefully for weeks across America and, just like the protests associated with the Women’s March and BLM, after the initial shock wore off, the protests would not get much media attention. And what media attention they did get would be about how Trump’s Little Green Men were beating the shit out of people.

So, in short, we’re doomed. It’s over. America is nothing more than a Russian vassal state at this point. America is Russia. Russia is America.

If I was a Blue Check Liberal writing for Vox, I would at this point tell you some woke way that you, as an individual could fix this problem and, lulz, who am I kidding. There’s no hope, only Zuul.