Tag: Mad King Trump

Our Craven Ding-Dong POTUS Faces His Final Political Test



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of different things are happening at the same time. One issue is that several different macro trends in American politics have come to a head. The rage that 38% of the electorate feels about the changing nature of American society combined with how white working class men can’t get laid has led to significant rot in the American political system.

Red State rural areas and Blue State urban areas simply have a fundamental difference of opinion about what constitutes America. MAGA and MAGA friendly people think that by definition to be conservative is to risk being “canceled” — have their life ruined — for simply being conservative. And that, is the source of a lot of the rage and willful ignorance on the part of such people.

There are a number of pretty huge problems standing in the way of MAGA getting want they apparently want right now — 4 more years of Trumplandia. The biggest obstacle to this goal, ironically enough, is Trump himself. If he struck in some autocratic fashion before the election was called — or even before the election — then he probably would have gotten away with it. There are many, many different autocratic things he could have done that would have allowed him to stay in office to varying degrees of success.

But he didn’t do any of them and now that the Electoral College has voted, it’s now much, much harder for Rudy to use his usual disinformation techniques to run slipshod over democracy since we’re now, again, in a political crisis. The reason we’re in a political crisis — even if we don’t see it for that — is only through extra-political measures can Trump stay in power.

Or, put another way, the soft coup techniques he used in the courts recently would have to be replaced by hard coup techniques of an actual autocrat. But there are a lot — a lot — of problems for Trump going forward to pull such a thing off.

Many of his followers are begging Trump to go full-autocrat and declare martial law, or what have you. But there’s an important element of this they miss — Trump can’t just do this out of the blue. If he did — no one would follow his order.

What he COULD do, is goad his followers into some sort of Reichstag Fire event which he could then, in turn, use to invoke the Insurrection Act and attempt to maybe stay in power no matter what. But, again, even then, now that the Electoral College has voted…that’s a pretty dubious strategy. Even if something happened out of the blue — like a war with Iran or the DPRK or a coordinated series of political killings or Oklahoma City type bombings — Trump’s time in office is growing to an end.

Really, it seems to me Trump has one ace up his sleeve — in a sense: he could just snap and go completely fucking bonkers and thrash around, trying to destroy the country as much as possible on his way out. There are any number of pretty insane things he could do. He could start tweeting about how Red states need to leave the Union before January 20th. He could attempt to arrest any number of people he doesn’t like as a negotiating tactic so HE doesn’t go to prison after he leaves office.

But, remember, pretty much at any moment now, some pretty lit extra-political events might happen because Trump is hoping he can win in Congress Jan. 6th because that’s a POLITICAL event.

And, yet, I’ve overestimated Trump’s actual political ability so many times over the years, that what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to drift into the Biden Era. Things will be in political neutral for about two years until the House flips and Biden is impeached for Hunter Biden’s laptop (or whatever) and there will be a lot — a lot — of surreal political discourse as suddenly our political norms snap back into place while, at the same time, Trump keeps doing what he’s always been doing an we just shrug.

Like we always do.

But there is a good chance that the weeks leading up to Jan. 20th are going to be unpredictable, unstable and extremely bumpy. How, exactly, all the plays out is anyone’s guess.

The Phony Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are very surreal right now. The reason — what should have happened after the election, hasn’t happened yet. What SHOULD have happened, given the metrics of the moment is a Second American Civil War.

Trump SHOULD have struck in some way before the race was called, Blue States SHOULD have reacted violently, Trump SHOULD have used the Insurrection Act and then the United States SHOULD have imploded into a full blown civil war.

But, thankfully, that’s not at all what happened.

It feels like everyone has put their affairs in order for a civil war….and nothing has happened. So, in a sense, many of us are kind of looking around in a daze, wondering why we still have lights and ready access to food. Everything is there, right now, for a violent civil war in the United States and yet the country continues to miraculously run on fumes.

So, in a sense, America is extremely lucky — to date — because the specific person who would otherwise destroy the United States, Donald John Fucking Trunp — is such a lazy opportunist that he just hasn’t done what many, many, many people in the Republican Party are begging him to do — take “total control.”

It’s a very surreal situation.

So, either something unexpected happens pretty quick, or we simply punt this problem down the road a few years. The traitors who hate America — the Republican Party — will continue to be a cancer on our politics, but not enough to start any violence. Until, of course, something changes and what SHOULD have happened in the Winter of 2020 finally happens.

But we’re not out of the woods yet.

America is on edge and pretty much all it will take is something, anything that puts a little bit of extra pressure on our political system and the rolling political violence that would be the first stage of the country’s implosion will happen.

But it could be the fall and winter of 2024 that that happens.

Just be thankful we apparently have managed to escape our destruction for the time being.

So, Are We Going To Have A Civil War or Not, Trump?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that the events surrounding the Dec 11th decision on the part of SCOTUS will be seen as a turning point in American history. In a sense, we know who America’s enemies are now.

If you were involved in the failed coup of Dec 11th, then we know should things get hot which side you’re going to be on. If we were honest with ourselves — which, to date, we haven’t been — we shouldn’t seat the 126 Congressmen who supported the failed coup.

As it stands, we STILL don’t have the political willpower to do such a thing, even though that’s definitely a debate I’d like to see — I’d like to see that question go to SCOTUS, if nothing else. It would be a way of naming and shaming the coup participants in a somewhat value free manner.

One tragic thing we have to admit to ourselves is all things being equal, we’re probably hurting ourselves long-term by not slicing this particular political boil now. So, in a strictly abstract way, I would suggest that in the name of making a more perfect Union, we need to call the secessionists bluff. Draw this issue to a tipping point and let the chips fall where they may.

We may have dodged a bullet.

Blue States have bigger economies, more population in more concentration and far better educated people. None dare call it treason — the center will not hold because it can happen here, to use a few political clichés in one sentence.

And, yet, we’re not there yet. (Which is a good thing.)

It’s very possible we’re going to punt this problem down the road and the 126 Congressmen and 19 State governments will continue to be traitors from within in. They will do everything in their power to destroy the United States because they don’t see anyone but Trump as their rightful ruler. Given that I’m a man of peace and ideas, that’s a far better option that the alternative of a hot civil war.

I will note that if Trump was, in any way, an actual political genius, he would strike NOW, while he was still president to destroy the country. He would still “legally” be president and, as such, the U.S. Military would likely follow his orders — as long as they had a thin veneer of legality to them.

Once he’s out of office, any shenanigans he did would evoke the deep historical echo of the Civil War and, as such, would fit a ready media narrative for the incoming Biden Administration –roll up your sleeves, folks, we defeated secession once, we can defeat it again.

But Trump is such a ding-dong, he’s more likely to self-own in a pretty massive fashion than think up some clever way to be in power to put down the rebellion of center-Left people caused by his own doings. Or, put another way, he’s more likely to simply go insane — or start a war with the DPRK / Iran — than he is to have any sort of clear-cut path to using his existing power to stay in control of the government.

In fact, that’s probably be my biggest mistake when gaming out ding-dong’s possible actions — he’s just an empty suit. That’s it. He’s nothing more than an avatar for the rot and rage that exists in the modern American political system. He’s a very lazy opportunist.

So, I can predict he’s going to go after Electors personally…and then he doesn’t. Or any number of different things he might do to destroy the United States…when he’s just a ding-dong. An useful idiot to the Russians. He’s a value free historical figure. At least to date.

Therefore, if American finally collapses, in a sense we will do it to ourselves. Trump will just be the guy blamed for it.

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.

Trump Being Bonkers Is A Lulz, Until…


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, for some time now, Trump’s mental acuity has been in self-evident decline. In short, he’s slowly going bonkers. But he’s been bonkers for so long in a very publish fashion that at this point we see it as white noise.

So, what has to happen is Trump really, really, REALLY has to go bonkers for it to matter. Specifically, he has to do something that would hurt himself politically because it’s so bad that it would puncture the bubble of “I haven’t see the tweet” that currently surrounds him.

What, exactly, would that be?

Well, all I got is he starts to actually spew racist vitrol on Twitter. He starts to use the N-Word on Twitter. He starts to call AOC obscene names on Twitter. He does has to do something so batshit insane and offensive that it actually causes people to sit up and take notice.

Or, lulz, he starts a war.

I just don’t see any of that happening, though. Even as bonkers as he is, Trump would really, really be out of it if he actually did something concrete that was actually impossible to defend.

Who knows.

No One Is Going To Save Us


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone in Europe looked at this site for about 20 minutes. I don’t know what they looked at — they were able to hide that information — but they first came in with abrupt wave of viewers from Europe and Russia, so it leads me to believe they might be connected to the Russians.

I really am pulling all of this out of my butt, but given what they were originally interested in — my talk about Russians hacking directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with House Trump — it seems reasonable to assume that maybe my paranoid rants might be a bit closer to the truth than I originally realized.

But, really, the point is no one is going to save us.

The Russians are going to successfully hack into our election systems and if there are any suspicions about it happening, House Trump will simply stone wall the whole thing until after the Electors vote. After Trump is safely in his second term, he can purge the media and, by the way, fuck you.

And, honestly, there’s only one person who could possibly fuck up this perfect crime — Donald J. Trump.

He’s such a massive self-own artist that in his craven desire to absolutely win, he could very well fuck everything up at just the right moment so there is at least the illusion that we might punt the death of American democracy down the road a little bit.

But that’s really a stretch.

I mean, the moment election night is over, the clock starts ticking. And, even then, for Trump not to win outright election night, a lot of things would have to go wrong for him. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where by the time we figure out what the Russians did with House Trump, it’s way, way, way, way WAY too late.

It’s not like the Electors are going to do anything. Though I still think human Electors are, by far, the weakest link in the entire Constitution. It’s a liberal fever dream to think Electors might have the wherewithal to change their votes if it became clear that Trump directly conspired with the Russians to rig the election. And, really, things are so fucked up in the United States that we could actually HAVE proof that happened and Trump would simply throw Rudy at the press just long enough for the Electors to vote and, by the way, fuck you.

What’s more, I don’t think Twitter liberals appreciate the harder it is for House Trump to steal the election, the more likely something akin to an actual civil war will break out. MAGA-Qanon is chomping at the bit to murder people like me and it is extremely easy to imagine a situation where things get completely out of control and the entire country implodes — leaving House Trump on top.

But the point is — we’re fucked. House Trump has won. We’re going to continue to slide into an autocratic managed democracy in fits and starts until by 2024, the very idea of a free-and-fair election will be quaint. America will be Russian and Russia will be America. Politically, we will be identical. And that doesn’t even take into account House Trump demanding a Constitutional Convention so its rule can be codified.

So, really, I would suggest you either get out of the country or start thinking how you’re going to avoid being pushed out a window. It’s very possible that MAGA-Qanon will go full Pol Pot on us and there will be American Killing fields. The process of dehumanizing liberals et al is pretty much complete. Trump will just tell the U.S. Military to stand down while MAGA-Qanon descends upon major metropolitan areas and murders everyone they don’t like –which is a lot of people.

As far as I can tell, House Trump will have Putin-levels of control over the country for at least 30-40 years. The dead hand of demographics, however, will begin to make their power a bit more untenable.

Then history will, again, wake up and we’ll see what happens next.

Maybe a 2nd Republic will be founded. Who knows.

What Might Go Wrong For House Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me be clear that the bad guys have already won and there’s nothing we can do about it. America is now a fascist state and the sooner we start to internalize this new normal, the better. So the following is more a bit of summer daydreaming than anything else. But I like to run scenarios and, as such, I thought it might be interesting to case out the ever-so-slight weaknesses to House Trump’s consolidation of power.

Trump’s Mental State
This is a very unpredictable variable. The reason I say this is it’s too easy for people like me to simply wave my hand and say, “Oh, by that point, Trump will finally go bonkers.” But it’s also a very real possibility that Trump will simply become an American Brezhnev and never quite get so bad as to be forced to leave office. To call him a functioning adult is already an extremely charitable assessment and absolutely nothing is being done about it, so, lulz.

So, it seems to me that what might happen is as Trump gradually grows even less functioning that people like Jared and Interior Minister Bill Barr will pick up the slack. It’s my impression that they already do that, but they still have a lot of room for growth in their power behind the throne.

Really, I guess what might cause some problems for House Trump is if Trump himself is confronted with an outside event that his mind simply isn’t able to process. This has already happened with the COVID19 pademic, but he’s largely righted himself. Hence, something else would have to happen that would lay bare that Trump should no longer be in office, fuck how close we are to the election.

The only things I can think of that might trigger such an unlikely situation is either a war or Trump’s criminality fusing with his insanity in such a way that his popularity dips from 38% to something closer to 20%. But that is really something we can’t predict. It would be something extremely unexpected. So, in a sense, it’s simply a liberal fever dream to think it might happen at all. The only reason why I bring it up is, well, maybe it’s part of my personal effort to process that I now live in a fascist state?

Electoral College Shenanigans
Another possibility is something happens that causes Trump is finally snap in a demonstrable fashion. It’s possible that the very thing I see as the single biggest existential flaw in the Constitution — that we have to rely upon Electors who are human being to vote for president — might cause House Trump some problems. Humans are notoriously weird — especially when power is involved — and if Trump simply can’t process that the Electors might vote against him despite his best efforts to steal the election, he might do a very ham-handed power grab that would turn the country against him in a major way.

I used to think that might be his possible downfall, but the more I think about it, since we’re a fascist state now, Interior Minister Barr would simply pick up the slack and Trump would continue to be president. Things are really, really politically dark in the United States right now and I fear Twitter liberals are rather oblivious to how nasty things are going to get in the coming days.

Really, as I’ve said before, the only clear cut way I could see House Trump facing any accountability for the next 20 to 40 years would be Trump bungling a war with the DPRK and being personally held accountable for, say, Alabama being vaporized by a off target DPRK ICBM.

That might do the trick. Maybe.

Countdown To American Fascism: Ode To Roy (Cohen)



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently TODAY is 96 days until the election. Anyway. Something I’ve long predicted is shaping up to be our future: Trump is never leaving office. Now, I say that with some qualifications. What I mean is, he’s never leaving office willingly.

It seems as though should it become clear that Republicans, sated on a huge tax cut and 1/3 of the Federal bench being young, hack MAGA judges, have finally decided to turn their back on him — he’s still never physically leaving the White House.

And, remember, him actually getting to the point where we all agree that he’s lost and has to be removed one way or another would be the culmination of about three months of legal struggle. Every aspect of the election will be litigated and fought over in an extremely dramatic fashion. We simply won’t know who the president will be until the Electors themselves vote. Who can be a voting Elector will be up in the air to such an extent that there may even be competing Electors voting. And that doesn’t include the doxxing and threatening of individual human Electors that Trump is likely to do on Twitter.

This it the point where we make some observations. One is, Trump is his own worst enemy. He could very well be on his way to “legally” stealing the election, only to do some sort of massive self-own. Though, we have to note that should it begin to sink in to House Trump that there may be an Interregnum, there’s going to be some seriously surreal things that take place. A number of MAGA lowlifes will be appointed to positions with terms that last well into the Biden Administration. (This is DL already happening.) I could see a least two Republican SCOTUS seats rather abruptly opening up as well. Trump might also try to start a war with either the DPRK or Iran. Anything and everything is on the table.

And don’t forget that Trump is probably going to pardon as many people as he possibly can — including himself! — even if holds up in the Oval Office thinking he is still president.

As of right now, the only thing stopping Trump from lulzing the whole thing and simply staying in office no matter what is American self-perception. It’s not even a “norm” or a “tradition.” It’s about who we are as a nation, how we view ourselves. Just like how the Romans may have had an empire but never a king, having elections and the peaceful transfer of power is so much a part of who we are that we don’t even think that it’s possible it might not happen.

So, in a sense, should the absolute worst happen — which would be not really a civil war but rather rolling political violence in support of Trump’s claim to the presidency — we really would be crossing the Rubicon. Whatever the outcome, it would mark the end of the United States as we know it. Once you cut the seal on a violent transfer of power, it’s likely to happen again.

Literally the only thing stopping Trump from pulling all this off is he’s a moron. He’s not a political mastermind and, to date, he’s benefited greatly from some existential macro trends in American political culture. The violence might occur when he presses things to their absolute to such an extent that people will have to take a side, no matter what.

Then the issue will be what the military will do.

MAGA As American Fascism



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about fascism is they don’t play by the rules of democracy. Or, if they do, they use the rules for their ultimate goal — to win. So, it seems as though 100 days before the 2020 election there are two macro trends happening at the same time.

On one hand, we have about 240 years of liberal democratic tradition all pointing towards Biden having a decent shot at winning a major victory against Trump in the fall.

Meanwhile, we have the “new rules” of the fucking fascist MAGA movement, which means, lulz, fuck you Trump’s never leaving office.

So, what I guess I’m saying is, when the dust settles, Trump is going to still be in office come Jan. 20, 2021. He’s simply never leaving office. I say this with the likelihood that he’s going to demand a Constitutional Convention at some point in his stole second term in the back of my mind. He’s going to be around for the next 10-15 years being more and more crazy and more and more criminal. Then we’re going to have a series of Trumps for the next few decades until the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America and AOC, I don’t know, manages to overthrow the government about 2050.

I can’t predict the future — I don’t know exactly how this is all going to work out — but that’s definitely where the macro political trends in the United States are pointing right now. The center-Left is so busy scoring density politics points on Twitter, that they’re completely oblivious to how they might need to address the fascist infection in real life.

Real “resistance” is hard work. You have to risk things that are important to you. There’s no assurance that you will live. There’s no assurance that you won’t be anymore than a number. And, really, the actual number of people who will resist MAGA tyranny is probably going to be pretty small.

It’s kooks and cranks like me who will have to take up the burden because I have principles and will refuse — absolutely — to shut up when everyone around me tells me I had better do so “for my own good.” I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. And I’m not going to be violent. That’s just not me. But will note that sometimes you can have a shit tone of guns and not do jack squat.

For instance, when Napoleon escaped from Elba in 1815, he famously stood before a huge army and told them to shoot “their emperor” if felt so inclined. They had all those weapons. They could have killed him on the spot. But they didn’t they made him their leader and they rode to Paris, starting the 100 Days.

I’m not comparing myself to Napoleon — that would be pretty bonkers — but I am saying that history is made by people with nothing to lose. For me — a bonkers loser in the middle of nowhere — to be of note in anyway, things would have had to have grown extremely dire.

So, hopefully, while things are obviously going to get REALLY BAD in Trump’s stolen second term, they won’t get SO BAD that I have to use my native skillset for anything other than developing and writing a novel.

America As Fascist State



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of MAGA’s favorite talking points these days is that United States is “a constitutional republic not a democracy.” They can get quite snotty about it, in fact.

Laying aside why they wouldn’t WANT to live in a democracy, this is their way of establishing the groundwork for why it’s “totally cool and totally legal” that Trump brazenly, in an astonishing fashion, steals the election in the fall. When it happens, they can shout at the top of their lungs that we rubes are fools for being enraged that American democracy is dead. “Buht America’s a constitutional republic,” they’ll crow.

As usual, this is MAGA tactically owning the moment in the short term to deflect what fucking fascists they are. Them being soooooo absolute about this conflation of terminology either gets you upset and the conversation devolves into screaming or you waste way too much time trying to explain something with, until recently, was simply assumed — there are “norms” that we all follow that make sure the while, yes, we are a “constitutional republic” we all agree that there should be free and fair elections and it’s like a bloodthirsty fight simply to get the ruling party to accept defeat in an election.

But that’s just the beginning of the clusterfuckery.

The issue of Trump’s goons snatching people off the streets of Portland to make campaign videos for the Trump campaign is another, more important issue. In general, I’ve come to believe that you can pretty much figure out if someone is a fascist by their response to this Authoritarian turn for the worse. The further they are away from “Oh my GOD, what’s happening?” they are, the more, well, fascist they are. If they’re quibbling about stupid shit how the people snatched are let go after a little while or that these Little Green Men have “police” on them, then, well, you’re talking to a fascist.

Everyone involved would be better off if MAGA simply embraced their fascism. Then we’d all be on the same page. Of course, I guess, in a sense, they will at some point down the road when MAGA pivots from any argument at all about Trump to whispering in harsh tones that people like me “should shut up if you know what’s good for you.” The implication being, of course, that Little Green Men will come for YOU now.

I would prefer if I was able to finish and sell my novel before Trump finally comes after people like me for good.