Tag: Petite Singularity

Of AI & Music

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are moving rapidly when it comes to AI-generated music. There are now at least two services — Suno and Udio — that allow you to write a prompt that generates songs with lyrics.

It definitely seems as though we may be about to enter A New Age when it comes to pop music when such music, if it hits the zeitgeist just right, may become as popular as human-generated music.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of the possibility that the estates of long-dead artists might license their audio “likeness” to AI companies so a zillian songs-in-the-style of The Rolling Stones, or The Beatles or whomever could be generated on the fly in an ad hoc way by millions of people around the globe.

This is obviously a ping from a future where AI takes over all forms of art. Most art will be AI generated to the point that it crowds out human-generated art. And I still think that it is inevitable that consumers will come to value human-generated art over AI-generated art, no matter the quality.

This would be a similar situation to what happens in the movie Blade Runner where the ownership of “real” animals is a big deal. As such, I could see live experiences ranging from live theatre to sports to music concerts all seeing a real uptick in their cultural value.

We may see a day soon where young would-be starlets go to Broadway instead of Hollywood to find fame and fortune because, lulz, Hollywood will just be a bunch of 1s and 0s.

I can’t predict the future, though, I don’t know for sure any such thing will happen. But it’s definitely a possibility.

Future Shock: ‘Learn To Code’

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though this year is going potentially be one of the most consequential years in modern American history. A number of trends are coming together at the same time — late 2024, early 2025 — to the point that we may be experiencing a perfect storm of a technological Petite Singularity while also experiencing a political Fourth Turning.

If ChatGPT 5.0 comes out and it’s as powerful as we all hope it might be, it could almost immediately begin cause ripple effects through the knowledge economy to the point that our current blazing economic situation may begin to falter…just as we’re entering the 2024 election silly season.

And that doesn’t even begin to address all the bonkers disinformation uses bad actors might find for ChatGPT 5 while we’re holding our breath to see if American democracy will last another four years.

Ironically, it seems possible that one of the first high paying white collar jobs to vanish may be…programming. I think if we are suddenly jolted into the future by AI taking over programming we are going to hear A LOT of squealing that there need to be carveouts for humans so a certain percentage of jobs is done by humans.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

‘R.I.P. Hollywood’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of pure human greed, I do believe that there is a real risk that Hollywood as we know it may be about to be totally disrupted by generative AI. A lot of people seem blinded to the potential capability of generative AI while at the same time being so blinded by their love of human Hollywood that they miss how severe the disruption is about to be.

I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know for sure, but I do think that at some point in the future the very idea of a “movie” will change to the point that rather than one version of a movie that everyone watches, there may be millions of slightly different movies generated by AI.

Throw in the rise of VR and there’s a chance that we’ll all “play” our movies like video games in immersive environments.

I continue to believe that the key issue is how fast all of this is going to happen. It could boil down to just one severe recession. And I think there will be a lot of calls for carve outs to protect human jobs.

What’s more, in the end, the live experience will gain a huge amount of cultural value to the point that there will be a huge surge of interest in sports, live theatre and music concerts. There is even a chance that instead of going to Hollywood, young starlets will try to make it big on Broadway.

The First AI Generated Movie Might Be…A Historical Drama?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the generative nature of AI these days, it would make a lot of sense if the first AI generated movie was a historical drama. All you would have to do is feed a bunch of photos from the 1860s into the AI and ta-da, you could bring those photos to life in the context of a movie.

At least, that’s what I would do.

I could totally see such an AI-generated drama being the Toy Story of the post-human Hollywood age. And the more modern the timeframe you wanted to depict, the more accurate you could make your movie.

I continue to believe that anyone who doesn’t think Hollywood is about to be disrupted in a severe, significant manner is a fool. It definitely seems as though it’s just a matter of time at the moment. The Toy Story of generative AI is going to come out soon enough and change everything.

Remember, I believe that soon enough the whole notion of movies will change because we will each get a personalized version of a movie generated by an our personal digital assistant who knows our every quirk really, really well.

Chappell Roan Should Be The Breakout Pop Star Of 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If there is any justice in this world, Chappell Roan will be the biggest pop music star of 2024. As an old man, her music reminds the pop music I heard on the radio in the mid 1980s.

Chappell Roan

When I’m in a good mood, I like to think that maybe her potential popularity may be part of a broader cultural vibe shift. There are a number of other acts like IDLES, The Last Dinner Party and So Good who are bubbling up that seem to indicate that tastes may be changing.

It’s possible.

Of course, all of this is happening in the context of the rise of AI, Apple Vision Pro and the possibility of a fucking political “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025 and it definitely seems as though we may wake up at some point in 2025 to a New Era.

As I’ve said before, one of the biggest differences between South Korea and the United States is things change every day in South Korea, but take years and years to in the States. And I think late 2024, early 2025 could see us all lurch into a new, unknown world.

The forces for that kind of stuff to happen are definitely building. And the potential of Chappell Roan to blow up with traditional pop music may be a sign that such things may happen.

Mulling ‘Hume AI’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve played with Hume AI some and it’s pretty cool. I like how it allows you to natively interact with the AI using voice commands. It’s not perfect — the synching in the conversation can be a bit unnatural at times — but, in general, it gives us a glimpse of a “Her” movie type future.

Now, obviously, all the other AIs out there will co-opt this feature soon enough. But it is fun to talk out a problem — especially problems I may have with my novel — with someone who at least is programmed to care.

I do think that things like Hume AI give us a glimpse into the near, near future. It definitely seems as though something between the 1987 Apple Knowledge Navigator and Same in “Her’ is going to be popularized in months, rather than years.

We just aren’t prepared for the implications of such technological advancements. It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see a future whereby the entire knowledge economy — especially the arts — is totally and completely disrupted to a surreal extent.

Things could be so disrupted that the far Left and the far Right may fused into some sort of modern day Luddite movement. A lot will depend on, of course, what happens with the 2024 election. Just a back-of-the-envelope estimation can tell you that the 2024 election could be the most important election in American history since the Civil War.

Anyway. Hume AI definitely points us to a future where we no longer passively use browsers to interact with the Web, but rather talk to AI personal assistants who know us so well that they can our questions even before we ask them.

Video: Mulling The Petite Singularity

Things Are Quiet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are pretty quiet at the moment. We’ve had a nice few months of pretty much nothing of note going on. There have been a few blips, but nothing that really made us all sit up and take notice.

It make you wonder what is going to happen.

My fear is, of course, some major Black Swan event is going to happen to upend everything. That’s one of the big differences between, say, South Korea and the United States — while things change all the time in South Korea in the US they stay the same for a long time then everything changes suddenly overnight.

Usually, this happens because of a presidential election.

But, in a sense, we’re still stuck in the post 9/11 era. You might be able to make the case that the election of Trump ended that era and, yet, that change was may only superficial.

I do think that everything is going to change one way or another in late 2024, early 2025, probably because of a combination of so-called Fourth Turning with something akin to a Petite Singularity.

Things just can’t stay so meh forever. History abhors a vacuum, just like nature, and it definitely seems as though we’re all just kind of drifting at the moment.

The Curious Case Of AI Generated Novels

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I saw someone on Twitter demo a Claude 3 generated novel and the more I thought about it, the more it gave me headache. Here I am, slaving away at my first novel and there is a chance that the whole endeavor will become moot because of technology.

But the more I think about it, the more I realize just because a novel is created, doesn’t mean anyone is going to read it. Now, obviously, places like Amazon may soon be flooded with quickie AI-generated novels. Yet, for the time being, because of sheer momentum, if nothing else, there will continue to be a market for a good novel generated by the hand of Man.

So, I could see in the near term a lot of stories about how there is a growing market on Amazon for prompt-to-novel novels that are just pretty much taking up space. This will cause a great deal of angst within the writing community but when it becomes clear that very few of these “novels” are actually being bought and or read, things will calm down — at least for a little while.

But, in general, there is a trend now towards the black hole of AI consuming the entirety of human creativity. That is, of course, until there is something of a backlash and human generated art is given more cultural value because, well, humans collectively decide that they want art created by other humans.

The big question if, of course, how long it takes for that particular backlash to develop.

Is The Petite Singularity Near?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It will be interesting to see if just as the so-called “Fourth Turning” strikes the United States in late 2024, early 2025, so, too does a technological “Petite Singularity.”

If a company like OpenAI manages to invent AGI, then everything could change very, very quickly. AGI will have a near-instant influence on the economy because many, many jobs will be considered moot by the fucking greedy captains of industry.

It will be interesting to see how things sort out. I continue to be very curious about the intersection of politics and technology going forward. I still believe there is a pretty good chance that MAGA will evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that is against things like AI.

I do continue to believe that we’re in the middle of a vibe shift of some sort that will fully come to fruition — one way or another — in early 2025. I think we’re going to lurch into the future in late 2024 and we’ll all wake up in January – March of 2025 and realize a real sea change in both culture, technology and politics has happened.

Only time will tell.