Tag: Second American Civil War

I’m Growing Unnerved About Trump Being Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Trump is growing more and more bonkers. To the point that I wonder how far he has to go until someone actually puts him in a straightjacket.

This is an example of Trump being a very, very curious historical figure. If he wasn’t so nuts and just an avatar for some severe structural problems in the American political system, he would have converted us into a Russian-style managed democracy a long, long time ago.

And he’s definitely trying right now.

But…he continues to be too nuts. He’s just so unfocused that even though he’s getting a lot — much — closer to enacting his tyranny this go round…he’s still a big old doofus.

Which, of course, leads you to wonder what happens next, after Trump. I think he’s a transitional figure. Whomever is next after Trump — if they’re a Republican — will become Augustus Caesar and figure out a way to rule for their entire life. We will wake up 40 years from now and wonder why we’ve only had one president.

Or we have a civil war / revolution and the country collapses into chaos.

Good times! (Ugh)

Worst Case Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The worse case going forward, is something like this — the USA implodes into civil war / revolution just as the Singularity happens and soon enough the world is governed by some sort of weird amalgam of ASIs that are a fusion of MAGA, Putinism and China world views.

That would really suck.

All Republicans Do Is Cheat

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. Things are dark in the United States and getting darker. All Republicans do is cheat and eventually, at some point, they’re going to do something so bad that Blues finally get upset and the country collapses into revolution and or civil war.

I just don’t see Blues wanting a National Divorce, so that’s why I think something like this may happen: what starts off as a revolution on the bar of major Blue states is only half-successful and the country collapses into civil war. Both sides use WMD on each other and, lulz, we the most powerful nation in the world bombs itself into the stone age of its own volition.

I could see such a civil war lasting between five to 10 years. There will be a WW3 while we’re busy blowing ourselves up and once we come out the other side, if we’re lucky and Blues win, THEN maybe we’ll finally have some sort of global government, probably in the context of living in a post-Singularity world with ASIs running around.

But that’s the best case scenario. Worst case scenario is ultimately ASI has to step in and rule a semi-post nuclear hellscape and we only unite as a species in that context. And who knows, maybe Elon Musk programs the One-ASI-to-Unite-Us to be MAGA.

That’s a very real possibility, the way things are going.

The Great Restructuring & Trump’s Ultimate Political Fate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Nixon was he was safe until he wasn’t. The economy went to shit just as Watergate was accelerating and it was the economy more than anything else that cooked his political goose in the end.

But there are a lot of differences between Nixon and Trump, to say the least. Trump is an autocratic tyrant without any honor, without any shame and getting that man out of office is going to be like pulling a huge fucking tick off a hound dog.

So, AI could prompt the Great Restructuring, the economy could take a nose dive…and nothing will happen. Trump will still run for an illegal third term, or he could even go so far as to YOLO it and ignore any election altogether. I’m still not so sure he would *cancel* an election, but he might fuck with whatever elections we have in 2026 and 2028 to the point that they’re meaningless.

The point is — we’re stuck with Trump. He’s going to destroy everything, burn everything to the ground before he will willingly leave office. And the American center-Left is so meh that they probably will let him do it, too.

But there is, of course, a small chance that if Trump really does go as far as I fear, that the country will implode into civil war or revolution. So, there you go!

Trump Is Such A Curious Historical Figure

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It sometimes seems as though I just can’t figure out what Trump’s endgame is because the civil war / revolution hasn’t happened, it hasn’t been won by the good guys and the camps haven’t been liberated.

It seems like Trump is kind of like Hitler in maybe 1936. We all know he’s up to no good, but we just don’t quite know what yet.

One issue is how ill-focused Trump is. Hitler was lazy, but extremely focused. Trump seems more like a transitional figure. He seems like the guy who will hand over the keys to the our nascent empire to someone younger and more focused who lurch us into true tyranny.

History would suggest somehow Stephen Miller will become president and be the one to turn us into a paranoid white Christian (ironic) ethno state. And yet, no. I just don’t see that happening unless their are some serious political shenanigans.

So, in a sense, we’re king of…lucky? We’re lucky because Trump is so old, so not a “great man of history” that there’s a good chance that whenever he shuffles off this mortal coil that while he will have probably destroyed the constitutional order of the Republic, his actual final vision will be left to someone who doesn’t have the strangle hold on the MAGA faithful like he does.

But there is one thing we have to absolutely understand — no one is going to save us. As such, in the end, we could suffer through a decade’s long civil war or revolution and we may simply get so tired of bombing ourselves into oblivion that one side or the other will win.

And by that point, WW3 will have happened and the world will have moved on to the point that we won’t know what to do. Talk about future shock!

The United States Is Unstable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t quite know what to make of the United States at the moment. All the Republicans do, it seems, is cheat and the two sides grow more and more radical. Though, to be fair, Republicans have gone full-blown fascist while the center-Left remains pretty limp wristed.

In, fact, I would go so far as to say whenever the center-Left is willing to mano-to-mano with the MAGA Right, that’s when the country will implode into civil war or revolution. I have a growing sense that whatever happens is going to be more like a revolution than a civil war in the sense that the war aims of the Blues will be to topple Trump’s regime rather than to leave the Union altogether.

And it definitely seems as though the tipping point will be either the 2026 midterms or the 2028 presidential election. If Trump fucks with either one of those elections to the point that it’s clear they’re not free-and-fair, then anything is possible.

I really don’t want a civil war or revolution. I would much rather try to get my scifi dramedy novel published while waiting for the technological Singularity than to find myself dodging bullets or bombs.

Man, Is The ‘Resistance Media’ Complex Clueless

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I run a lot of scenarios in my mind and right now it seems as though things are a lot more urgent in the United States than the “resistance” media complex might lead you to believe.

They’re so busy sucking their own cock about this or that dumb thing that they totally miss that we may have a revolution or civil war in 2026 or 2028 because Trump severely fucks with the Federal elections set for those years.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of Trump potentially balking at leaving office altogether, or maybe running for a third term.

Things really are that dire.

As such, maybe Crooked Media and The Lincoln Project might stress to their audience that they need to gird their loins for the catastrophic disaster that might happen sooner rather than later.

I really hope I’m wrong. I would prefer not to dodge bullets or bombs and be a domestic political refugee.

Any Second American Revolution or Civil War Would Probably Make Our Lives Like The Movie ‘Threads’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t think the human mind can comprehend how horrific a Second American Civil War or Revolution might be. If things got as bad as I fear, we would be living in a real world ‘Threads’ movie.

Society would collapse, there would be Killing Fields, camps, extensive use of WMD by both sides. It would just be horrible. And, yet, here we are, with some on both sides chomping at the bit to have at it.

I just hope we muddle through. I really do. Even though I write all the time about civil war or revolution, I don’t actually want such a thing to happen. I’m just trying to make my abstract fears concrete.

Anyway. I have my doubts about us making it through 2026 or 2028. In both instances, I fear Trump will severely fuck with the Federal elections to the point that the country collapses in on itself.

Ugh.

Form Follows Function: ICE As America’s SS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, ICE deals with undocumented people, but the infrastructure is quickly being put into place for ICE to be more like the Nazi SS. And, I think if there’s some sort of civil war or revolution in the near future ICE is probably going to commit it’s fair share of atrocities.

My biggest fear, of course, is that I might be amongst those that ICE…uhh…”hurts.”

But even if we don’t have a civil war or revolution, ICE is growing into a serious menace. Form follows function and our Hitler-wannabe POTUS is inevitably going to want an SS-like organization to implement some of his more evil ideas.

I still think Trump might simply declare martial law and while not directly order ICE to murder millions in cold blood, he might simply set up the conditions where that happens. There are a lot — a lot — of people in the USA.

Even if just a few percent of people are targeted for some sort of Final Solution, that’s a lot of people! Anyway, hopefully I’m overthinking things. Hopefully none of this is going to happen.

So, Chat, Are We Having A Second Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Editor’s Note: This is just me, a rando in the middle of nowhere musing about this possible event that seems to be on everyone’s mind. So, take it for what it’s worth.

Short answer: Maybe. I can’t predict the future.
Long Answer:

Ok, all the conditions, all the metrics are there for either a civil war or revolution in the United States. There are centrifugal political forces that seem to be spinning out of control and it seems like it would just take the right catalyst for the country to implode into civil war or revolution.

There are two things to take into consideration.

One is, since the first Civil War ended in 1865, the US is notorious for just muddling through, no matter how bad things get. So, lulz? Maybe somehow, even though Trump definitely wants to declare martial law and maybe call off the 2026 and or 2028 elections, we somehow will just…muddle through.

The second issue is I think Trump really is a Russian agent and he seems hell bent on destroy the country I love. He keep’s a line stepper. He’s a one man stress test of American political and public social life.

So, the case could be made that he will, on purpose, push us to the breaking point and there will be a civil war between now and, say, 2029. But it could happen a lot sooner.

One issue that we to address is if a Second Civil War does happen, it’s going to suck. WMD will be used by both sides. Of particular interest to Reds would be using tactical (I hope — no need for strategic nukes! ) nukes on Blue cities in Red States. So, I could see, say, Atlanta being bombed into rubble so all the fucking Nazi MAGA cocksuckers could overrun it.

So, in general I don’t want either a civil war or a revolution.

But are we going to have one? Maybe. It’s possible, not probable.