Tag: Second American Revolution

I Definitely Have The Creative White Hot Rage Necessary To Finish This Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This novel, from the beginning, has been powered by my center-of-the-sun rage over the Trump Era. Now that the fucker has been acquitted AGAIN by the Senate, all systems are go to throw myself into this novel.

I’m enraged by the fact that the United States is officially hurtling towards either a civil war / revolution or MAGA-based autocracy. We are now living in something akin to the American Weimar Republic. This is the calm before the storm. We’re going to be in political neutral for about two years. Once the Republicans win Congress back, then they’ll impeach Biden and plot how they’re going to steal the 2024 election.

If they manage to steal the 2024 election without bungling it, then we get an autocracy very, very quickly. If they bungle it, then we get a secession crisis, civil war, revolution, you name it.

These are macro forces at work. Something on a strategic level would have to change for this not to happen. The Singularity. First Contact. A limited nuclear exchange. That type of stuff.

Anyway, the emotional, mental and creative energy I need to finish this novel is back on line. I’m apoplectic that Democrats did not have the guts to at least TRY to get Trump convicted by calling additional witnesses. Ugh. Idiots.

But I guess I have to just throw myself into this novel as best I can. And also keep an eye on the exits — if I mange to sell this novel, I may use the funds to bounce to, say, Asia so I can drink BeerLao and watch as the nation I love is consumed by American Nazis.

Of ‘Cancel Culture’

Shelt Garner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue for me is, does cancel culture even exist? I would say, in real terms — no. So many people who should be “canceled” never are. In fact, it can get so bad when a white male is involved that you’re surprised when someone who has a cannibalism fetish scandal has to face any sort of accountability.

Or, let me put it to you this way — if “cancel culture” does, in fact, exist, are we really prepared to give power to deranged would-be autocrats like Donald Trump in an effort to rid ourselves of it? It seems to me that “cancel culture” is part of a broader problem — the MAGA Right longs for a time when women and minorities “knew their place” and, as such, white men could do whatever the fuck they wanted. It helped that this was also a moment in time when an white man without a college education could support a family of five on his income and his income alone. Such men, who are, in a real sense, the backbone of any liberal democracy now feel “stuffed” as the book title says.

They feel fucked over.

Because the liberal-progressive movement hasn’t figured out how to bridge the gap between Modern America and the America of when it was “great” for white men without a college education…we’re in the situation we’re in right now. And, honestly, I don’t see what we can do about it.

As I keep saying, either we have a revolution / civil war in about four years, or we turn into an autocracy. The end game for people who rant about “cancel culture” is to be in a position to “cancel” anyone who objects to any policy they may want to implement. People who rant about “cancel culture” ultimately will make the issue moot because the people who would otherwise be “canceled” are going to be the ones throwing people into ICE camps, never to be seen again.

Or, put another way, enjoy the next few years of liberal democracy. We’re totally fucked. The end is coming for the America that we know now. People like me are going to be rounded up, put in ICE camps and probably murdered in cold blood.

Either get out of the country while you can, be prepared to submit to Big Brother, or be willing to risk your “life and scared honor” to what you believe in when the Bad Guys finally win.

The Second American Civil War of 2024-2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s pretty obvious that America is tearing itself apart. The successful election of Joe Biden in 2020 simply punted down the road a crisis that is brewing in the American political system. For historical context a lot of the shit that happened in 2020 with Republicans happened to a far lesser extent with Democrats in 2016 and so it’s logical to assume a similar problem will — only worse — will happen one way or another in 2024.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.

Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or anther) in 2024 and that will be that.

The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…

There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.

Armageddon 2025-2030


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For a number of significant macro trends, it seems as though what will be marketed as World War 3 will likely happen around 2030. I say this for the following reasons.

Fortress America
The United States is going to implode into itself sometime around 2025 when the Republican fascists take control. They will proceed to “Make America First” and pull all our troops out of countries across the globe. The United States will leave NATO, etc. This will destabilize the world order in a rather spectator fashion.

Power Vacuum
It will take a little while to do this — maybe five years or so, and, so, by about 2030, the world will descend into something akin to a world war.

Wildcard: American Civil War / Revolution
Now, the above assumes that the United State’s transition into an autocratic managed democracy will be peaceful. It’s possible that the United States will violently implode in the 2024-2025 timeframe and World War 3 will happen then, not in 2030.

Regardless, we’re fucked.

Anyone Who Thinks The Republican Party’s Embrace of Qanon Will ‘Destroy’ It Is Very, Very Naive


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welcome to Weimar America. The clock is ticking for the American Nazi, er Republican…Party to seize control. Probably in the 2024-2025 time frame. The only thing that will stop it at this point is, I don’t know, the Singularity or First Contact. Or maybe Jesus coming back.

I say this because if you look at the Nazi Party, it was into some pretty bonkers things. It was very much into mysticism and conspiracy theories. The dead hand of history is just too powerful — the bad guys are going to win. We’re doomed and you need to either leave the country or move to a Blue State.

Now.

The next time the Republicans control all the branches of government, we won’t be as lucky as we were last time. Even if it’s Trump that comes back, he’s likely to be just a deranged figure head, with Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton being the organized, youth autocrat who really pulls the strings.

As such, American democracy is dead. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. Enjoy the few years of a liberal democracy while you can. Once the Republicans take over again, they’re going to weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure, purge the media and start to pull all our troops out of our various bases across the world

Fortress America will be here and American Killing Fields will be just around the corner. In fact, I would say the only thing that might bring down our new autocratic overloads will be their excesses. But Putin has been in power for 20 years now, so there’s no reason to believe President Tom Cotton won’t be president for 20 to 40 years as well. Soon enough, the United States will be identical to Putin’s Russia without even a civil war or a revolution.

It’s over.

How Red States Could Win A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You wanna know how Red States “win” a Second American Civil War? Don’t have one — just be patient. Wait until 2024, win that election — one way or another — and then turn the United States into an autocratic managed democracy like they have in Russia.

It’s when Red State people grow so bloodthirsty and impatient that they start jumping the gun and wanting a civil war NOW that they get themselves in trouble. Red States have a huge political advantage. Trump showed how weak and ineffectual liberal-progressives are on a political level. What happens, of course, is Red State cocksuckers see that and think, “Just imagine what we could get if we started murdering people in cold blood!”

Why that misses the point is as long as you’re dealing with things on a political level, then Red States win. Much like with Slave Power in the 19th Century. They were pretty much getting everything they wanted on a political level and it was when they freak the fuck with the election of Lincoln that they lost everything. Even the biggest fey soyboy might get a bit more spunky if a gun is pointed in his face.

But the point of all of this, I think, is we have to take seriously the idea that the Republican Party is now a full-blown fascist party. And, what’s more, it’s far more powerful in real terms than the Nazis were in the 1931-1932 era. The Republican Party is only one of two major parties in the United State. So, all they have to do is get the presidency and Congress again and that’s it — they can strangle liberal democracy once and for all in the United States and slowly turn us into Fortress America.

There will be white minority rule for decades to come and all without firing a shot. Sure, some of the bigger Blue States might grumble about leaving the Union, but I just don’t see them doing it. But if President Pompeo or Cotton drives them out of the Union in an effort to reconstruct them in MAGA’s image, then, well, all bets are off.

Or, put another way, the United States is already an autocracy without an autocrat. MAGA can stroke one out all it wants to the idea of revolution or civil war, but it would be extremely self-defeating. If you REALLY want to destroy America and turn it in to Trumplandia — just be patient, you fucking cocksuckers.

Time To Do Preemptive Triage


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a macro level, the United States is doomed. We have a very stark choice ahead of us — fascist autocracy or civil war / revolution. The election of Joe Biden simply punted the crisis down the road about four years. And that punt happened because of one person and one person only: Donald Trump.

Trump is such a lazy idiot that the very thing that any other thug in his position would have done, he didn’t do. If Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo was president in 2017 I probably wouldn’t be writing this now because I would be locked up in an ICE concentration camp — or worse. Every republic has to fall and so here were are — the United States is an autocracy without an autocrat.

No one is going to save us. We’re doomed. The Republican Party will grow more radical and powerful over the next four years, not less so. And, so, in the end, the only real question is how violent will the transformation from liberal democracy to fascist autocracy be. Will there be a civil war / revolution as we transition, or will it be such a historical sucker punch that when the media is purged and people like me are snatched off the street will anyone even care?

I’m talking about macro trends here. On a macro level, the United States is fate is sealed. It’s over. The forces of white identity politics are simply too strong. Someone like Trump was going to rise in the 2016-2024 time frame, it just happened to be Trump. What everyone missed, however, was Trump was strictly an avatar — he was successful for simply being himself. A sizable chunk of the electorate sees liberal democracy as a threat and, as such, they wanted the guy from The Apprentice.

Thankfully for everyone else, when they elected “the guy from The Apprentice” what they got was Chauncey Gardner from Being There.

But this is simply a historical quirk that will work itself out soon enough. We have, in fact, crossed the Rubicon and we’re all in Rome waiting for Caesar’s forces to reach the city. As such, we have to accept that it’s over. America’s decline is set to accelerate to the point that we leave NATO and pretty much pull all our troops from the entire world so we are Fortress America. This is now a historical absolute. Trump simply sliced the seal on fascist autocracy. A big chunk of the American electorate wants a fascist autocracy because they’re afraid of the browning of America.

As such, we have to do triage. As I’ve suggested before, you need a passport. And if you don’t have the means to leave the country within four years, move to a Blue State. When the Final Fall happens, it’s likely to be a historical thunderclap. And, as I keep saying, my only question at this point is literally will there be a revolution / civil war in the 2024-2025 timeframe or will the fascist autocracy be established peacefully?

From my Webstats, I can tell that there is a huge amount of interest in second civil war porn. If my tiny little blog is getting most of its traffic now from people wanting to stroke one off to my dystopian hellscape scenarios, then, well, we got a problem.

Let me be clear — the extremism of the Republican Party is a feature, not a bug. As America grows more diverse, the Republican Party is only going to grow more radical and fascist. And, as such, we have to get woke to what’s really going on — the Republican Party is a fascist party and in the end they either split into the Patriot Party (MAGA) and the Republican Party or fascist Trumpism completely consumes the Republican Party. From what I can tell, it definitely seems as though any civil war in the Republican Party is over and MAGA won.

So, get out while you can. Move to Europe. Or Australia. The United States is rotting from within politically and will buckle soon enough. Something pretty big — something I could never possibly imagine — would have to happen to prevent this transformation. The era of indecision is over. Pick a side. Or it will be chosen for you.

‘Q Nation’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to break it to you, but the bad guys are going to win. There continues to be a lot of chatter around that the Republican Party is going to wither away because it’s too growing too extreme and is too consumed with the bonkers Q conspiracy theory.

Sadly, I think the opposite is true — we have to accept that for a sizable chunk of the population liberal democracy is no longer seen as a legitimate form of government. There are a lot — a lot — of reasons for this, but generally I would say it boils down to white blue collar men without a college education not being able to settle down and expect “the American Dream” to be waiting for them as they grow older.

As such, they voted for “the guy from The Apprentice” in 2016, hoping for a Putin-style autocrat. That’s what they wanted. But that’s not what they got. Yes, plutocrats got their massive tax cut. And social conservatives got their hundreds of young hack MAGA judges. But, in the end, when America was spread eagle in front of Trump, he, well, he couldn’t get his figurative autocratic cock up. He turned out just to be an idiot, like Chauncey Gardner from Being There. So, while he had plenty of autocratic or fascist impulses and inclinations, in reality he just didn’t have it in him.

So where does that leave us?

Well, barring something I just can’t predict, we have about four years of something akin to a Weimar Republic ahead of us. Or, even more specifically, we have TWO years of being in political neutral, then another two years of the Republican Party plotting how they can consolidate power once they win back the presidency in 2024.

Republicans now wallow in white identity politics to such an extent that when they do get back to 2017-levels of control, they aren’t going to let the opportunity slip through their fingers again. It will either be the Velvet Fist of Lara Trump / Mike Pompeo or just Mike Pompeo (or someone like him) being full autocrat.

And, really, at this point, the question is not so much if America is an autocracy without an autocrat, it’s when President Pompeo has two years to consolidate power does he cause a secession crisis / civil war / revolution, or do we just slip into an autocratic fascist state without so much as a struggle.

I honestly don’t know the answer to that question.

All I know is the ICE infrastructure is going to be weaponized in about five years and people like me are going to be thrown into concentration camps. All my nightmares from the Trump Era were simply a few years too early. They would have happened if Trump had anywhere near the political acumen that I — and people like The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman — ascribed to him.

The next time around, however, I’m going to be right. And probably starving to death in an ICE Camp somewhere.

Preparing For America’s Inevitable Descent Into Fascist Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, here we are. If ever there was reason to believe the Great Man theory of history, this particular moment in time is it. But for the sheer stunning stupidity and incompetence of one Donald John Trump, America would be little more than a managed democracy like Putin’s Russia. Existing ICE camps would begin to welcome liberals (or anyone who’s generally a loudmouth like me) and we would continue our steady march towards Fortress America.

But Trump just wasn’t up to the task.

As such, as I keep saying, the United States is now an autocracy without an autocrat. About half the population longs for the white security of a Christian Entho state that re-assures them that they will always be the most politically powerful race in the United States, no matter their dwindling numbers in real terms.

I keep saying — America’s future is South Africa’s past.

There are a few — but significant — unknowns on a macro level for the United States as we stumble into our very own Fourth Reich. Will there be a civil war? How violent will the process ultimately be? How long will the Fourth Reich last and who, specifically, will be the craven thug who finally pulls the plug on the First American Republic?

For me, one question that looms large is — how does one prepare for this dystopian hellscape?

Since we have about four years to prepare, I would first suggest you get a passport if you can. Also, I might suggest you take concrete steps to connect to like-minded people who will be willing to risk things in the real world. When the Fourth Reich comes into existence, it will be so quick as to be something of a historical suckerpunch.

And, really, I might even suggest if you have the means that you make sure you’re living in a Blue State by 2025. That way, should the American autocrat of 2025 bungle things and the Blue States are able to bounce from the Union before he finally consolidates power, at least you’ll be in the right place.

Otherwise, you’re on your own.

Good luck.

Comparative Political History: The Paris Commune And The American Capitol Riot Of Jan. 6th, 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I barely know anything about the Paris Commune, but I know enough to know that it may be the closest comparison one can think up when it comes to the Capitol Riot of January 6th in Washington.

But there are some pretty big differences.

If you look back at what happened on January 6th, we were extremely lucky for a number of reasons — the riot didn’t really have any leaders and it didn’t really have any long-term agenda or ideology. It was just a smash-and-grab coup attempt.

But imagine if there had been some sort of leadership on January 6th. They could have established a security perimeter around the Capitol. They could have taken hostages and they could have formed a “government” at the Capitol building.

If they had had any organization or forethought, they could still be there right now, hold up at the Capitol in their own “commune.” I doubt they would have called it a commune, but that’s what it would have been.

They had a very specific historic opportunity and — thankfully — they completely blew it. They “caught the car” and then didn’t know what to do with it. There won’t be a next time.

Any coup-like event that occurs in the future is going to require a shit ton more work by those involved. I still think given macro trends that while there may still be significant political violence in the coming years, it’s the 2024-2025 period we need to keep an eye on.