Tag: the Fourth Reich

Is Trump America’s Hitler?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ahh, the curious case of one Donald J. Trump in the context of America’s inevitable slouch towards autocracy. It is easy to see Trump as “America’s Hitler” but the more I read up on Hitler, the more I have my doubts. Hitler was a Great Man of History. He bent history to his will and road it like a tamed tiger to great heights.

Reasons why we may have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
  8. SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept.
    I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.

Meanwhile, ding-dong Trump is too lazy and stupid to do even the most basic of Great Man plays. I mean, if Trump really was America’s Hitler he would currently be working on his plans for his third term in office and rounding up people like me so we could be put in an ever-burgeoning camp system.

While Hitler was a Great man of History, Trump just limps along, being a vessel, an avatar for the rage of your typical white Christian who is fed up with the so-called “woke cancel culture mob.” He doesn’t do anything. Yeah, he almost destroyed American democracy in 2021, but he was so vague and half-assed in his efforts — waiting until the very, very last possible moment to stay in power — that he was bound to fail.

I would like to take moment to note that one a macro level, it definitely seems as though January 6th, 2021 was the high point of MAGA. Or, if nothing else, it was the one moment when Trump actually had a chance to break the back of American democracy once and for all and effective rule as a dictator, at least on a political level.

We came so close to the end of our democratic republic. So. Very. Close.

Trump’s second term after January 6th would have been violent and chaotic, with the country constantly being on the edge of civil war as Trump consolidated power.

But being a lazy idiot, Trump blew it and so here we are. I think the question we should be asking ourselves is not “Is Trump America’s Hitler” but, “Who will be America’s Putin?”

That’s because it’s more likely at this point that the United States is going to become an “illiberal democracy” like found in Russia as opposed to some MAGA themed Nazi state. Although MAGA becoming American Nazism is still a very real possibility for various reasons because of America’s original sin of race….I think we’re probably going to just slide into autocracy without a shot being fired.

Gradually at first, then more rapidly, someone like DeSantis — or name a Republican — throttle what’s left of American democracy and that will be that. Millions of wealth Blues will flee the country for various parts of the globe. The Constitution will be changed with the addition of MAGA-themed Enabling Acts and away we go.

Some 20 years from now, we’ll wake up and DeSantis — or someone like him — will still be a MAGA POTUS and he’ll be explaining to us why we absolutely have to “deNazify” Canada for this or that reason. I wish I was joking. I’m not. That definitely seems to be our immutable fate at the moment

In fact, the only wild card is, and always has been, Trump himself. If we’re going to have a civil war it will be because either Trump and his allies steal the 2024 election in a rather brazen manner, or their incoming agenda is so fascist in nature that Blue states begin to leave the Union.

And there is, of course, the issue of the “Independent Legislature” concept that SCOUTS is going to take up on December 7th. If they agree with that radical, bonkers concept…the idea that Blues might leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 grows exponentially more likely.

At the moment, of course, all that sounds bonkers. And maybe it is. But it’s definitely something to think about going forward as we careen as a nation towards a very turbulent and dark future.

The 2022 Mid-Terms May Be A MAGA Counter-Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I do not believe that the American press has done a very good job of preparing the public for how dark things may get if Republicans control the House and or the Senate. Republicans are now so radical that they’re fascist and autocratic. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy unless you win the election.

And, really, the curious thing is what doesn’t seem to be on the cusp of happening — Speaker Trump.

Trump being Speaker of the House is something that would be a basic autocratic play for any other person in Trump’s position. But Trump is such a lazy idiot and has such poor abstract thought abilities that he just can’t process in his mind how politically advantageous it would be for him to be Speaker.

But the key issue we have to remember is the only way we end the MAGA Republican threat is probably a civil war. That’s it. I say this because MAGA is now American Nazism and, in the end, the only way to end MAGA is how we ended Nazism — in the field of battle.

Let me be clear, however — I hate violence. I don’t want any form of violence, so what I just wrote is just an abstract, back of the envelope statement. So, we have to accept that we’re probably going to turn into a political clone of Nazi Germany at some point after Republicans steal / win the 2024 election. Then everyone who can will flee the country, just like people did when the Nazis took over Germany.

The point is — if Republicans take the House and or Senate, they are going to do everything in their power to destroy what’s left of American democracy so they can prime conditions for the final coup de grace. Or, put another way, the years 2023 – 2024 will be extremely dark and turbulent if Republicans have any sort of meaningful power.

I don’t know what to tell you. Get a passport. Game out where you might be able to flee to when the final darkness of autocratic MAGA fascism drapes across the country.

Dave Chappelle, Or How I Learned To Quit Worrying & Love The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes when I talk to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m aghast at how different they perceive the world relative to me. At the very forefront of their mind is the idea that the “woke cancel culture mob” is not only “grooming” children, but they will “cancel” anyone who is conservative enough to question their aggressive “gay agenda.”

Not canceled.

Ugh.

A prime of example of this bizarre world view is Dave Chappelle. My Traditionalist relatives believe that because of his aggressive anti-trans stance, that Chappelle’s career is dead and he now lives under an assumed name along with all the other “canceled” conservatives of Hollywood.

Of course, this is complete bullshit.

Chappelle is doing fine. He’s very popular and continues to have a robust career. But the expression my Traditionalist conservatives give me when I point this out is complete disbelief. They really believe that the “woke cancel culture mob” is so absolutely powerful that by definition if you have the temerity to cross them that you burst into flames and descend into some sort of “canceled” hell to be with a groomer Satan or some such.

This is why I just don’t believe there is any hope for America anymore. The idea that the people who otherwise would be the bedrock of our democracy now apparently, in the abstract, live in abject fear of having their lives ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” just for being conservative is extremely alarming. They are primed and ready to, when the time comes, support America’s transition into autocracy.

Then, of course, the only question we face is do we endup around Hungary and Turkey politically or do we careen towards something closer to Russia or Nazi Germany. At the moment, I honestly can’t game things out that far.

And, yet, it definitely seems that this is it. Call it the Fourth Turning, or the “Great Reset,” or whatever the fuck you want, but the United States is far less stable than you might otherwise think. And, really, the issue is — when MAGA demands Blues bend a knee to autocratic fascism, do they do it or do they serve papers on a National Divorce?

At the moment, I think Blues are going to be so sucker punched by how rapidly the transition to fascism happens in the United States that they’ll just shrug and let it happen. After a brief moment of panic in late 2024, early 2025, we’ll just slip into autocracy, probably through a process that will ultimately end in a Constitutional Convention.

There is a small chance of a military junta, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re going to flee once the American Nazis known as MAGA finally consolidate power.

‘I Just Want To Be Left Alone’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the go-to talking points of one of my well meaning, sincere conservative relatives is the idea that he just wants to be”left alone.”

I really struggle with what he means by this. If I brought up how the state telling a woman what she can and can’t do with her body definitely goes against his mantra, I doubt he would process what I was implying the same way. In his mind, he doesn’t really hold a coherent ideological stance other than a vague, abstract fear that the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to either force him to turn gay or ruin his life just because he’s conservative.

This mentality is also why he just can’t validate my fears of what will happen to ME if the United States becomes a MAGA themed autocracy. Not until I’m abducted by ICE and tortured will it become real to him that maybe he should have joined forces with me and people like me when he had a chance to save democracy.

There is a real crisis in the United States when it comes to Traditionalists. Something about the second Obama Administration broke their minds. Something about how there was a sudden, abrupt change in social expectations and gender dynamics really spooked them. Whatever was that happened spooked them to the point that they are gleefully waiting for a MAGA themed fascist autocracy to consume the United States so things will go back to the way they were — America will, at last, be great again.

But in their eagerness to murder American democracy, they are totally oblivious to how they are directly connected to people — ME — who probably will have an ICE bullet put in his head when he simply refuses to shut the fuck up about our Very American Autocrat is a piece of shit who can suck his cock.

I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment. But when the United States turns into a white Christian ethnostate — which seems to be an immutable, inevitable aspect of our future history at the moment — people like me will have a choice.

Either we leave the country, never to be seen again, or we risk being “disappeared” by ICE (or whatever agency the autocracy ultimately weaponizes.)

But back to the idea of my relative just wanting to be “left alone.” It’s my impression that much of the rage of my well-meaning conservative relative comes from the regular sensitivity training he has to undergo as part of his corporate job. What is that, however, but the free market working? If it’s a private company doing that sort of “woke” things, then they’ve decided for some reason that it’s in the best interest of their shareholders for the employees to at least be aware of how some people have a different perception of race and gender roles.

And, yet, that’s not how my conservative relative sees things. Without even realizing what he’s articulating, he’s pontificating on his support for white identity politics. He doesn’t believe in democracy because he wants keep white people on top, even as the white birth rate plummets and America becomes a majority minority nation.

There is so much more to talk about, but I’ll cut it short to make this specific point – all things being equal, Blues should secede from the United States and found a Blue Union that is on the same page about what we expect from each other on a whole host of issues.

But, by definition, such a National Divorce would grow horrifically violent and I don’t want that. So, autocracy or military junta it is, I suppose.

It’s Like America, as a Nation, Has Collectively Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want the most recent reason why I think all those earnest, well meaning yet racist and mysgonistic MAGA cocksuckers can fuck off, look no further than Elon Musk amplifying this particular gem.

So, instead of taking responsibility for spewing hate and inciting stochastic terrorism, all those ernest, well meaning, well educated MAGA dickheads continue to double down on all their lies and hate. They just can not accept that they’re in the wrong on this one.

I continue to be at a loss as to how otherwise normal people can be so consumed by hate that they gleefully spread disinformation about people like Paul Pelosi. Or they take the attack as an opportunity to joke around.

It makes you wonder what will happen if something REALLY BAD happens. My guess is all those well meaning MAGA fuckheads will go silence for a few days while the Powers That Be at Fox News and Right wing podcasts think up their talking points so they can continue to “own the libs.”

Usually, what happens is, once they come out the other side, their talking points are all spin. They try to rationalize the Bad Thing out of existence, or say “thoughts and prayers” or even “we have a national mental health crisis.” But what if a major center-Left figure is seriously hurt as part of stochastic terrorism?

I can only assume that the only difference will be the length of their radio silence. But in end result would be the same — MAGA simply refusing to accept that they are to blame with all their frothy rhetoric about how center-Left people “groom” children.

So the country continues to circle the drain. The forces of fascist MAGA continue to gain power and will ultimately force Blues to make a choice — bend a knee to autocracy, or demand a National Divorce. There is the possibility that the U.S. Military may step in and we’ll be ruled by some sort of military junta for a little while as we wait for the passions of the 2024 election to cool down.

Or not. Good luck. And fuck MAGA cocksuckers.

It Can Happen Here

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading a political biography about the rise of Hitler — as one does — and the key takeaway so far is: it can happen here. We like to make ourselves feel better by believing that the rise of the Nazis was something unique to the German psyche after The Great War.

But the more I read about Hitler’s ascent, the more I realize that it Can Happen Here. Though, of course, Trump could not be more different than Hitler. I’m just at the book where Hitler’s personal characteristics are described and Trump is no Hitler.

The way Hitler is described really lays bare how Trump is just an empty suit who happened to at the right place at the right time to be a vessel, an avatar for white Christian rage over the browning of America and the rise of economically liberated women. (All the bitching and moaning about “wokeness” and homophobia is just something that happens on the Right because it’s politically expedient.)

Anyway, all signs point to A Very American Autocracy. And there is one specific problem which could very well cause Nazi-like genocide in the United States: race.

Once the United States is no longer a democracy, the more vile elements of the American experience could grow dangerously amplified to the point that there are Killing Fields in upstate New York and in various places around the South. The United States could implode into a situation where the only way we get rid of our American Nazi overlords is they grow so extreme that there is some sort of mass revolt.

Or, I don’t know, NATO, Japanese and Korean forces swoop in and topple the MAGA fascists who are murdering millions at an alarming clip by that point.

The point is — be very alarmed. Everything from Election Night 2022 to January 2025 (and beyond) could be historic and flabbergasting. Something’s gotta give. Call it the Fourth Turning or the Great Reset — America is in for a very, very bumpy ride.

America Is Ripe For Fascism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say, politically, I’m the red headed stepchild of my family. Everyone else in my family is a bedrock Traditional conservative. Even though I hate talking politics with them now, I still find myself doing it and, as such, I use them as an impromptu focus group.

They key takeaway is — Traditionalists no longer believe in democracy. They’re primed and ready for the United States to transition into an autocratic, illiberal democracy like they have in Hungary or Turkey. And, as long as the transition is peacefully, they probably wouldn’t mind all that much if we ended up somewhere closer to Russia or Nazi Germany.

That’s because, from what I can tell, my relatives have only two red lines — violence and the personal. So, yeah, if MAGA freaked out and there was violence in the streets on their part, my relatives might have some pause for thought as our democracy was strangled. But as long as the transition is peaceful — lulz.

The other red line is, well, me.

So, my relatives — whom I love dearly — are looking forward to living an autocratic white Christian ethnostate because then, at last, they won’t have to worry about having their life ruined — canceled — simply because they’re conservative. They think my personal fears about fascists using hard power against me once we’re an autocracy are hysterical and ridiculous.

But we do turn into an autocracy, all bets are off. None of our rights — even freedom of speech — will be off the table. And, given my tendency to get drunk and rant in bars, it’s within the realm of possibility that at some point after 2025 I could very well get drunk, start to rant about how I think our Very American Autocrat can suck my dick and before you know it…my relative’s red line will be crossed.

Of course, it could be too late — I could be dead in a ditch somewhere at the hand of an ICE agent who was tipped off about my rant.

But at least my relatives won’t have to worry about being canceled, huh?

Jesus Christ, Is America In Fucking Political Denial

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Traditionalist conservatives I know love Trump because he’s a fighter. They feel “oppressed” because the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “groom” little kids and otherwise turn everyone gay.

They feel they risk having their life ruined — or “canceled” if they should happen to do or say something that doesn’t follow the “woke” media agenda. They think all their favorite stars are having their lives ruined by the “woke mob.”

They are aghast at the potency of the transgender movement — especially when children are involved — and the feel the “what are your pronouns” issue to be as alarming as it is ridiculous.

Throw in a heaping helping of negative polarization and you have a recipe for disaster in the guise of the United States turning into an autocratic white Christian ethostate pretty much the next time Republicans have it in their power to do so.

In short, the United States is fucked.

The center-Left is too divided, too wrapped up in quibbling about how many genders can dance on the head of a pin, to do anything preemptively about the dangers we face. And, really, at the moment, I just don’t see there being a National Divorce.

Blues will ultimately bend a knee to fascism and those who have the means will vote with their feet by leaving the country. That, at the moment, seems to be our immutable fate. The only reason why I don’t absolutely believe this is I can’t predict the future and, as such, we might either have a civil war or some sort of military junta.

And, yet, the fix is in for Something Bad to happen. We’re past the event horizon for “the Fourth Turning” if you want to invoke that astrology for dudes brand.

In the end, I think we’re just going to shrug and give up our American democratic birthright because we don’t realize the true implications of becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy. Good luck.

My Personal Case For A ‘National Divorce’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I believe this Union can’t be saved. I hate conflict, hate violence and consider myself a man of peace, a man of ideas. And, yet, I grow more and more alarmed as a center-Left person about the raise of autocratic MAGA Republican fascism in the United States.

So, on paper, there is a very strong case for Blues to serve Reds papers on a National Divorce at some point in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that either Reds are going to steal that election or they’ve won it fair and square and their incoming agenda is simply too radical for Blues to remain in the Union.

But all of this is on paper. I would far rather at least try to figure out some way to punt the ascendant nature of autocratic MAGA fascism down the road a few more election cycles. Yet, I fear late 2024, early 2025 is going to be it — the Fourth Turning, if you’re into that particular astrology for dudes bullshit.

It just seems — on paper, that if Reds finally catch the car, that maybe Blue States should collectively agree to bounce. If Reds want to establish a white Christian ethnostate so bad, then have at it — but without the tax base associated with Blue States.

We may all be antifa one day.

There are so very many problems with this idea.

I just can’t imagine a scenario where Reds would let Blues leave the Union without a Second American Civil War. What’s more, if the United States buckles, then the post-WW2 liberal order will, too, and WW3 will break out. There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you could think up at this point, including the DPRK throwing a few H-bombs towards the United States while we were preoccupied with bombing ourselves into the Stone Age.

But something’s gotta give. America is going to reach a point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that the jig is up. We are either going to be all-Red (autocracy) or split into two nations that hate each other. Or, I supposed, some sort of murky middle ground could occur whereby the U.S. Military steps in and keeps the country together until, maybe, passions subside a little bit.

All of this is still too far out, I can’t game out any scenarios that make much sense at the moment. The first big milestone will be the 2022 elections and when Trump announces for 2024. Those two events will definitely lurch us closer — one way or another — towards the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025.

But I’m always wrong. Maybe somehow we’ll sort things out and my dark, dystopian fears of autocracy, civil war or military junta will just be hysterical. And, yet, to be a Republican in good standing at the moment means to be an autocratic fascist, so lulz.

Form Follows Function — The Return Of Fascist Antisemitism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Antisemitism has always been a part of America’s modern fascist movement, it’s just been lurking in the shadows in the guise of “Qanon.” But lately, especially with the tweets of Ye….the sentiment has grown more conspicuous. Now, let me be clear – I’m not Jewish and I’m just pointing out the obvious: if your country has a fascism problem, you’ve got an antisemitism problem just around the corner.

Now, in an ideal world, the rise of such antisemitic hate would cause a lot of prominent MAGA people to wash their hands of MAGA and that would be that. I mean, fucking Stephen Miller is MAGA ‘s Joseph Goebbels and you’d think being Jewish he might pause to reflect on the rise of antisemitism within MAGA ranks.

But, no, he’s a vile, nasty bigot who won’t stop being a true believer until it’s too late for him — and everyone else for that matter.

The thing I would suggest you keep an eye on Qanon as well as MAGA’s interpretation of Jared and Ivanka’s Jewishness. If Qanon completely consumed MAGA — as it’s on track to do at the moment, then it’s obvious antisemitism basis may grow more and more a feature and not a bug. I still am very concerned that should we become a MAGA-themed autocracy that it will be because of Qanon that we zoom past being a political clone of Hungary and end up circling the drain somewhere around being a Nazi clone. (Of course, America’s Fourth Reich won’t be expansition in nature, but more like something Pol Pot might think up.)

Also, if Jared and Ivanka’s position in MAGA grows untenable then…yeah, something really bad is about to happen for American Jews. Something we were all told Never Again and Never Forget.

I wish American Jews — even conservative American Jews — would be more at the forefront of the anti-MAGA movement. But I suppose — hopefully — that time will come.

I just hope it’s not too late.