Tag: The Fourth Turning

The Hypocrisy Of The Right

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin with this one. But, let’s try. The issue is because of “vibes” the American Right thinks the world is out to get them. They see any possible slight against their movement as The End Times. They are, in short, a bunch of fucking snowflake crybabies.

But the thing to remember about the Right is at their core is a willingness to be hypocrites without blinking an eye. Take, for instance, how Republicans are “free speech absolutists” when it gives them the two-fer of “owning the libs” AND demanding all their mistaken-for-Nazi rhetoric is allowed to spew forth online like just so much sludge.

Then, the moment they feel that clamping down on free speech will help their never-ending efforts to establish a fascist white Christian ethnostate, suddenly, it’s all, “Lulz, can’t have THAT speech be free, now can we?”

They do this all the fucking time! On every subject! They pick the most extreme position possible, then when someone calls them out on how using their own logic they’re a bunch of fucking hypocrites they just hand wave the issue away and piviot to how “the big guy” sold out America to Chinese interests in the name of his son. UGH. (Even though we know for a fact from recent reporting that ding-dong Trump did the very thing the Right screams at the top of their lungs that Biden did!)

It’s all very aggravating.

And, at its heart, the issue is just “vibes.” White Christian (men) are spooked by how America, in general, is becoming more brown, female controlled and secular and it freaks them the fuck out. So much so that they would hand the American birthright of democracy to a malignant ding-dong like Trump so he can snuff it out.

As I keep saying, I’m not so much interested in what Tyrant Trump will do should he become POTUS again as I am what the REACTION to such tyrannical behavior will be on the part of the “center” that usually doesn’t really care about politics and when pressed they “both sides” any controversial issue into oblivion.

If Trump really does try to deport 20 million people out of the country and he literally starts to snatch people off the street in broad daylight….will these so-called “centrists” take notice? Will they even care? Or will they be just fine as long as brown kids are back in cages, screaming because they’ve been separated from their parents?

Will only be when things get personal for them, specifically, that “centrists” get woke and decide to do something in the real world about the Red King? What they might do, I have no idea. But I’m a little unease as to how unstable the United States MIGHT grow to be in late 2024, early 2025.

Imagining The Implosion Of Virginia Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say, Virginia is actually two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. The divide is pretty much rural versus metropolitan. The thing about a National Divorce, should it happen starting in late 2024, or early 2025, is what happens to states like Virginia?

If Red States really do start to leave the Union, there will be a massive rush from rural MAGA counties for Virginia to follow suit. Meanwhile, the urban areas of the Commonwealth will remain loyal to the Union. I think we would see coups and counter coups in Richmond if the things really got bad.

On a practical basis, if Virginia imploded, I would have to figure out what I would do on a personal basis. I think I would head to Richmond where I have some relatives. But that would probably be just a makeshift solution. Even Richmond would not be safe to stay in very long. I would, I fear, have to leave Virginia altogether for a more stable state north of the Mason – Dixon line.

I would like to think an infrastructure will have been built out by the point that I have to leave RVA, but, who knows. I know I can’t predict the future, so it’s very possible that all of this is just me and my usual hysterical doom shit. But who knows.

All I do know is the United States is a lot less politically stable than we would like to to think. The MAGA Right grows more and more radical by the day and should the time come, I have no doubt that states where MAGA Republicans control the governments will begin the process of leaving the Union.

I suppose what will happen is roadblocks will begin to pop up between Red and Blue states as the process of collapse begins in force. I suppose that Red States — who at this point I think will be the ones leaving the Union — will issue their own passports. And the new Trumplandia government will have to attempt to seek recognition from other countries, probably with our enemies like China and Russia being the first to rush to do so.

But, again, let me stress, all I’m trying to do is make my abstract fears concrete. It could be that some sort of Black Swan event will happen and we’ll simply punt our severe structural political problems down the road another four years. But I do believe, in general, that our next Republican president — whomever that might be — will ben autocrat.

A Red King: Tyrant Trump & The End Of American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A lot of people are still being very delusional about Trump. They think through some combination of rainbows and unicorn farts, Trump will simply fade away and we can go back to normal. Sadly, barring some sort of Black Swan event in 2024, Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

The question is, how, exactly will Trump end American Democracy?

Logically, what would happen, if form follows fascist function, Trump would soon after getting re-elected demand a Constitutional Convention that will make “America First” changes to the Constitution in such a way that Trump never leaves office.

But there are at least two issues to consider.

One, Trump is old as fuck and while he can destroy American democracy, it will be up to his successor to be in office for decades to come. Second, if Trump literally begins to snatch people he doesn’t like off the street, There Will Be Consequences.

And, yet, may be I’m being too sanguine. Maybe if 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country and take their smug, circle jerk podcasts with them, that will be that. American democracy will be snuffed out and we’ll all shrug.

I can’t predict the future. Anything is possible.

How, Exactly, Does Trump Plan To Be a Dictator?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Malignant ding-dong has made it clear that he wants to be a dictator at least for “one day.” And I get that the is working on using Schedule F and Agenda 47 to further that goal.

But.

Maybe Blues should become Blue Meanies.

The issue is even Putin gradually became the autocrat that we now know him to be. It took him a few years to consolidate power. If Trump just rushes into things in 2025 and starts to act like a dictator, I struggle to figure out how far he can get. I am well aware of how you can have a zombie “managed democracy” autocracy, but Trump is so, so very dumb and lazy that if he starts to do a major power grab in the first few days of his second term — there is going to be a reaction.

Now, some context.

The Traditionalists I know love Trump’s policies, but don’t like him in large part because they think he’s a “loser” who can’t win a general. If he wins, however, they will be quite content with his tyrannical policies…until it hits home on a personal basis.

Because if Trump makes deporting 20 million undocumented people in the United States in one fell swoop, then the idea of “show your papers” will become the center of the American experience. There are plenty of conservative white Americans who have at least one non-white person in their extended family and when 1 million armed ICE agents start snatching anyone who isn’t white off the street “just ’cause,” that MIGHT be enough to get even Traditionalists “woke.”

What’s more, even with his own MAGA Deep State in place, Trump couldn’t just instantly, overnight, be an American Tyrant. It would take time for him to ramp up the weaponization of ICE and to quell Blue parts of the country that might be upset with his tyrannical thrashing around.

As such, if Trump wins re-election in 2024, the first few months of 2025 could be very, very rocky. Because the moment Trump is so tyrannical that even Traditionalists have to acknowledge that he’s gone full-tyrant….Trump and everyone else in America has a problem.

Since I can’t predict the future, may be some Black Swan event — like what happened in 2020 and the pandemic — will happen that will allow us to defeat Trump once and for all and all of this talk about civil war / revolution is just going to be seen as silly as all the talk about Y2K back in the day.

I just don’t know. At the moment, it could go either way.

But, like I said, I just don’t understand what, exactly Trump thinks he can do that would allow him to be “dictator,” even for one day. I suppose he could just keep pardoning himself and anyone else who does something illegal. Only time will tell.

Is The Fourth Turning Really ‘Here?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because I’m weak, I bought the book The Fourth Turning Is Here so I could read more about astrology for dudes. There are some severe problems with the whole notion of “The Fourth Turning,” but I will give the authors of the notion credit — it definitely SEEMS as though something along the lines of a “Fourth Turning” will happen in late 2024, early 2025.

It’s all very curious because it’s pretty clear that the whole idea of a Fourth Turning is complete and total bullshit. They just got lucky. The whole premise of The Fourth Turning just makes no sense.

But as I write those words, in the back of my mind, I find myself low-key gaming out some sort of massive clusterfuck starting in late 2024 early 2025.

I just want to live in a liberal democracy. AND, I would just like the opportunity to get into the querying process because the country I live in and love so much goes tits up.

January 6th, Three Years Later

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given how dire some of my personal predictions about the next 18 months are, it’s very possible that Mike Pence may have single-handedly given the Republic four years to — somehow — save itself.

And what have we done with that time?

Jack shit.

Rather than using the fours years that Pence afford us by lighting his political career on fire, we’ve just mentally masturbated over the “who shot John” elements of Trumplandia, not really addressing the central issue: Donald Trump.

So here we are, potentially about to either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have a civil war / revolution. I say this because it seems clear that America was the cusp of a civil war / revolution on January 6th, 2021. It is simply amazing that the the insurrectionists we sooooooo dumb and disorganized that they didn’t try the Paris Commune endgame and simply squatted in the Capitol building until there demands were met.

I fear this will not be the case next time, should such an occasion arise.

I almost went to D.C on January 6th to cover certification, but it was too cold and I knew that I would head home well before dark, anyway. I’m so broke it’s just not practical for me to go to D.C. unless the financial conditions in my personal life are juuuuuust right.

So, even if I had gone up there that day, I seriously doubt I would have been around when the crowd attacked the Capitol. It’s possible, but not probable. And I would have only done it because of the heat of the moment and my natural journalistic instinct to go where the story takes me.

Anyway, the thing about Mike Pence is he is such a fucking Trump toady that he simply did not have the courage to go the same route as Liz Chaney. He could have totally revamped his career had he become a virulent #NeverTrumper. But it’s too late now, lulz.

I just don’t know what to expect in 2024 and 2025. It could be that Trump is just a quirk of history and will fade into oblivion, or it could be that the man single handedly destroys not just democracy in the United States, but manages to cause the collapse of the post-WW2 global liberal order.

So, I guess we just wait at this point.

Our Coming Moment of Historic Truth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For me, the issue is not if Trump wins or loses in 2024, but what happens after that. It is easy to imagine that either way, Trump could very well cause a civil war, if for different reasons. He might cause a civil war if he loses because he demands a National Divorce to keep himself out of jail.

Meanwhile, he could cause a revolution THEN a civil war if he wins because he will simply be such a ham-handed tyrant –a Red King, if you will — that the country will be brought to its knees.

As such, we have to start to think about what happens if we’re pushed to the breaking point as a nation. Is it possible that for the Traditionalists who are the backbone of any stable democracy, there is no red line when it comes to Trump? Is is possible that they are soooooo anxious about the browning of America and the rise of women with more reproductive and economic agency that they will ride the pony of fascism all the way down?

I would like to THINK that the Traditionalists I know would at least have the Red Line of the personal. I would like to think that would happen. And, yet, who knows. It could be that they’ll simply become Good Germans and keep their heads down and just shrug if weaponized ICE agents come after me because I won’t shut the fuck up about what a piece of shit Trump is.

That moment of truth is really the issue at hand. The fate of the United States will be determined by Traditionalists. I say this because they are the people who are center-Right and provide the stability of the United States. If they actually are riled up by Tyrant Trump’s either demand for a National Divorce in 2024 because he loses or if he goes totally bonkers and tyrannical in 2025 should he win…then, well, freedom in the United States will have a fighting chance.

It could go either way, though. It really could.

Third Time’s The Charm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been writing a lot about how we might get rid of Tyrant Trump should he be re-elected late this year. While I’ve blathered on about very speculative ideas about him being “deposed” by the U.S. Military using the 14th Amendment as some sort of legal cover, in reality given American history, what would probably happen is just a regular old impeachment.

I say this because if Trump went full tyrant in a very ham-handed way, that, by definition, would be an abuse power, and as such, an impeachable offence. There is the issue, of course the chief issue is who would be in charge of the House in 2025.

If it’s Republicans, then holy shit would things have to get very, very, very bad before there would be any talk of an impeachment. Meanwhile, if Agenda 47 was implemented the way we’ve been told and Democrats control the House, Trump could very well be at least impeached within a few months of being sworn in.

But there are a lot complications.

If Trump has gone full tyrant when he’s impeached and things head over to the Senate for trail, the country would literally have to be on the cusp of a Glorious Revolution for him to be convicted — especially if Republicans controlled the Senate.

And some unpreceded things would have to be going on for Trump to be convicted. An actual General Strike that was actually in place and working would be the only way I can imagine that Trump would come anywhere near being convicted in the Senate.

And…maybe…if Republican Senators were leaving the Senate in droves to help organize some sort of “rebel” Trumplandia government as all of this was going on then, yeah, I guess it’s possible Trump might get convicted. But he would probably just fly to some safe rebel Red state and plot his revenge.

But that’s all very speculative and just my usual hysterical doom shit. It could be that either Trump loses and MAGA fades in power, or he wins and so many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will be too busy leaving the country to organize any sort of effective direct action against our new Red King.

Who knows. Not me.

I’m Aghast At The Idea Of A Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not a violent man. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. I hate guns with all my heart. What’s more, I, in general, hate even basic conflict and will do everything in my power to avoid it. Having said all that, I also refuse to be intimidated by people on the Right who seem to be chomping at the bit for a Second American Civil War.

I once had a boss who would scream at the top of his lungs over a phone bill, but when he had to vote about the arrival of Wal-Mart to town (he was on Town Council) he pretty much just said, “A man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.”

And that’s how I feel about the prospect of a civil war. I don’t want one, but don’t try to browbeat me into submission by threatening to start one. It is growing more and more obvious that MAGA is a fascist, bad-faith movement that wants to rule, not govern. They want to turn us into a white Christian ethnostate that will inevitably slouch into excess that will transform American life.

Now, this is the point where I remind you that I can’t predict the future. It could be that all of this is a lot of words over something that isn’t going to happen. We are just going to punt our problems down the road and that will be that. But the MAGA Right loves to use the threat of civil war as a way to spook the center-Left into doing their bidding.

And I say, fuck that. If you are such crybabies — snowflakes — then shake your money maker and attempt to leave the Union should either Trump lose or Trump win and then be deposed / impeached and convicted because he goes full tyrant.

Don’t threaten me with a good time.

I believe that the ideals that Blue states organize themselves under are true and right and are no less honorable than those of the North during the first American Civil War. I don’t want violence, but there is such a thing as a Good War and I refuse to be scared into submission at the threat of a civil war.

Please, God, let’s not have any of this happen. I just want to live in a traditional liberal democracy. That should not be such a big deal.

What Caused The Second American Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If there is new, second civil war, the question of what caused it will be just as potentially controversial and complex as that of the first. But to me, I think just as slavery is the simple answer for what caused the First Civil War, the Second Civil War was caused by one word: abortion.

I say this because, in a sense, abortion is an economic system as much as it is a form of birth control. Where the population of a state lands on the legality of abortion pretty much aligns with if they’re a Blue or Red state. This is a very simplistic point of view — there are some obvious exceptions — but I guess what I’m trying to point out is that if the dominate political party of your state does everything in its power to make abortion absolutely illegal then you’re probably living in a Red state.

Of course, the REAL answer for what caused the 2ACW is, well vibes.

Pretty much the United States is being torn apart by how the two sides perceive each other. Or, to put an even more fine point on it, the issue of how MAGA perceives itself in relation to Blues is what will be the cause of the 2ACW. MAGA is a classic late-stage-empire movement.

It’s about retrenchment combined with the once majority ethnic group — white people — feeling resentment about the growing encroachment of brown and black people. So, in a sense, while slavery was the clear cut macro issue that led to the 1ACW, the 2ACW is about not one clear-cut macro issue, but a number of such issues that all could be referred to under the rubric of “abortion.”

Just from the conversations I’ve had with my far more conservative relatives, it definitely seems as though Trump will have a huge amount of slack should he get re-elected and go full tyrant. It won’t be until it starts to get personal that my Traditioinalist relatives — whom I love dearly — might begin to have second thoughts.

That will be the moment of truth, not just for them, but for the nation in general on a macro level.

Of course, it could be too late by that point.