Tag: The Fourth Turning

Invoking The Insurrection Act Would Not Be The Magic Fascist Pixie Dust That Trump Thinks It Would Be

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to struggle with how, exactly, Trump could go full tyrant in 2025 by just invoking the Insurrection Act while corrupting the levers of power. That’s it? That’s all he’s going to do? And it’s not like all of that is going to happen in a vacuum.

The U.S. Military is not the Nazi SA. It’s a democratic institution to its core. It’s not going to be cool with being seen as MAGA thugs, hell bent on “making America great again” over a bunch of corpses. If anything, if Trump pushes that particular pressure point too much, the military will either implode from internal division on the subject or turn around and topple Trump for being such a dick.

What Trump will need is some sort of national paramilitary group, an American SA. But it would take 18 months to organize and call up the 500,000 bloodthirsty thugs to make up any sort of American SA. That would be plenty of time for a General Strike or Women’s Strike to persuade the U.S. Military to stand down or even help Blues topped Trump. (But even then, all that might do is cause a National Divorce and a civil war, so, lulz?)

Yes, Trump would weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure, but that STILL would not be enough goons for what Trump wants to do. Blues make up about half the population and once it became clear that Trump wasn’t “joking” about becoming a tyrant towards them….anything might happen.

This is not to say that Trump can’t get what he wants, just that maybe there’s more going on than I realize. If there isn’t, early 2025 could be very, very unstable. The key thing about Trump is he’s always been a one-man unpreceded stress test on the American political system.

Maybe Blues need to turn into “Blue Meanies” if Trump is re-elected.

If he uses the U.S. Military on the Blue parts of the U.S. to rule as a military dictator there, while being a more traditional autocrat with his Red State supporters….yikes. Trump could cause the situation in the United States to grow so unstable that many, many people die for no damn reason. The US could be wracked with revolution, counter-revolution, civil war all happening in the context of WW3.

I still believe that MAGA and Trump will soon be as loaded in the global mind as the Nazis and Hitler. Trump could be responsible for at least 1 billion dead if you factor in WW3 happening as a number of nuclear-tipped regional wars turn hot because the USA is too preoccupied with blowing itself up to do being the world’s “indispensable nation.”

But, thankfully, I can’t predict the future. No one can. But it does seem, in general, that if Trump wins re-election that we’re going to the show. That will be it. Either the US turns into a MAGA hellscape, or we somehow manage to destroy MAGA and found a Third Republic.

May God have mercy on our souls.

The End Of Pax Americana?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of late 2023, it definitely FEELS like we’re fucked here in the United States in regards to some sort of MAGA counter-revolution. There is an air of inevitability to the return of Trump to the point that anything that prevents it from happening will be jaw dropping — by definition.

Maybe Blues should become Blue Meanies.

Should Trump return to power, it will market the official end to the post-WW2 liberal order. The US will probably leave NATO, South Korea and Japan. We will probably align ourselves with Russia, Hungary and Turkey. All this will happen just as the wealthiest, most powerful nation in human history suddenly becomes very, very, very unstable.

Trump will try to rule Blue portions of America as King Trump I, while ruling Red parts of the country as more of a traditional autocrat. At least 1 million smug liberal Blues will leave the country, dramatically transforming global culture. Just imagine how a steady flow of well educated, well trained Americans being pumped into nations like Canada, New Zealand, Australia, The Philippines and a lot of Latin American nations could change the global order.

I don’t know how much Mexico will benefit from the collapse of the United States, but I could see Argentina, Chile and Brazil seeing so many Americans flood them that their general standard of living improves rather dramatically and abruptly within a few years.

And that doesn’t even begin to account for how Europe will change when many, many Americans flood to cheap places in the Balkans — it’s already happening.

This is where there are people on the MAGA Right who will roll their eyes and say none of this will ever possibly happen. Trump won’t be a king, he will bring peace and prosperity to all Americans through a combination of being an “alpha male” and rainbow unicorn farts.

I dunno. I guess we won’t know for sure one way or another until, well, they call the 2024 election. Good luck.

Pondering How Trump Would, In Practical Terms, Be An American Dictator

When You Reach A Fork In The Road, Take It: America’s Political Choice In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my personal opinions as to why each one of the potential endgames might happen.
Civil War (Right)
* Trump simply will not accept defeat.
* As such, faced with the possibility of going to prison, Trump might demand a National Divorce to keep his sorry ass out of it.
* They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so the moment Trump begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce, it’s possible that states — probably starting with Texas — will take him up on it.
* Because of corrosive issues like abortion and guns, it’s possible that the whole system will collapse given some added pressure.
Punt
* Something unexpected could happen like happened in 2020.
* It’s always possible that even if Trump demands a National Divorce after losing, Red States may choke and not initiate a Secession Crisis.
* There’s no evidence that we’re actually on the cusp of a civil war.
Revolution (Left)
* Trump is so stupid and so lazy that rather than do basic autocratic moves, he could go full tyrant — in Blue States at least — in such a way that pisses people off so much that they want to overthrow Trump.
* It’s possible that Trump could be so brazen and chaotic in his tyranny in Blue States that people who would otherwise be pretty chill with an *autocrat* will freak the fuck out if Trump is actual *dictator*.
* Any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump would be extremely risky and might only serve to make him more powerful in the end.
*It’s possible that because so many smug liberals have left the country after election day that there won’t be any leadership left to direct any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump


The Red King: Trump Will Rule Blue America As a Tyrant

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear to me that Trump’s “dictatorship” will actually be more of a hybrid than a true dictatorship. He essentially wants to use the power of Red States to force Blue States to submit to his will. This is, of course, a very volatile situation with no apparent endgame.

It’s not like Trump is hiding what he wants to do, though. In the now notorious Sean Hannity interview, it went out of his way to use the word “dictatorship.” I can only imagine that this is a bit of FUD on his part. He wants to stoke the energy of the base while scaring the shit out of, well, people like me.

Trump says there are two things he wants to do for his “one day dictatorship.” He wants to close the border and “drill baby drill.” Why he couldn’t do either one of those things by using the traditional governance in the United States is something of a mystery. (America is pumping out oil at an unpreceded level.)

Given what we know how ding-dong’s mind works, by the time the election rolls around, he will pretty much be saying “I WILL BE A DICATOR” at the top of his lungs. And people will still vote for him.

I just don’t see how this is going to work. Yes, he could re-imagine the U.S. Military in his own imagine. But for two things — one, the American Military is a democratic institution on an existential basis. And two, what ding-dong really wants is an SA to knock heads. And the Blue portions of the US are so huge and populated that…oh boy. He would have to organize and build out an American SA of no less than 500,000 shock troops.

It would take time to do that. And the whole country could be collapsing into political chaos as he was calling up the “good old boy reserves” in rural Red States. It would just take time. The Nazi SA was built out over the course of a decade. Tyrant Trump has made it clear he wants to be a dictator from the get-go, so, I dunno.

It will be a curious time in American politics and history.

Why Trump Is So Fucking Popular

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about major historical events is the individual has no fucking clue what’s going on while it’s happening. It’s sometimes not until decades later that people have enough perspective on things that there some sort of cohesive narrative as to what the fuck just happened.

Having said all that, here is my personal hot take on why Trump is so popular. The people who are so obsessed with Trump love the “idea” of Trump the fighter. They could care less about his personal bad behavior. They see him as an avatar, a vessel, for the bent up rage of disaffected, “disenfranchised” white Christian (men) who feel as though the woke cancel culture mob is just moments away from ruining their lives.

As such, they hate liberal-progressives SO FUCKING MUCH that they gladly will hand over their democratic birthright. They *want* an autocracy and if Trump uses the military to “own the libs” with the U.S. Military, all the better. They are so blind with rage about the elites and the transitions to a minority majority nation that they are totally blinded by the consequences of doing such a thing.

These are all macro trends that are coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. Either we turn into a hybrid MAGA autocracy / military dictatorship or we defeat the “bad guys” of MAGA and establish some sort of Third Republic. I fear at this point, there’s absolutely no middle ground.

I’m not advocating anything, of course. Just pointing out the obvious.

The process of figuring out what the fuck we’re going to do starting in late 2024, early 2025 could cost the lives of billions because of a Civil War / Revolution / Third World War. I’m known for my hyperbole and “hysterical doom shit” so, since I can’t predict the future….who knows?

Regardless, we have to take all of this seriously. We can’t dick around anymore, thinking someone is going to “save us.”

King Trump For a Day

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What are we to make of this? There are two things to take into consideration. One, Trump lies all the time, so it seems as though it may be more than just “one day’ that he wants to be a tyrant.

Meanwhile, in the past at least, Trump was too dumb and lazy to actually do some pretty basic autocratic things. That may have changed, however, for various reasons. It could be that Trump could very well do all the autocratic things that he promises to do — “on day one.”

This brings up the issue of my own personal exposure. While I think I’m *fairly* safe — at least at first — my concern if we really are transitioned into a military dictatorship that things could get…hot…for me where I live. I could become one of millions of American who flee my home to somewhere that better fits my own personal politics.

But, it gets worse.

Virginia where I live is actually two states one Blue, one Red, fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of “National Divorce” or even a “Glorious Revolution” Virginia is going to implode into intra-state civil war. The whole thing would be a massive clusterfuck with no ready endgame.

And, yet, here we are — it definitely seems as the moment that a Trump second term, with all its hellscape elements, is now inevitable.

America’s Hybrid Political Future Under Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Tyrant Trump plans to rule America under a hybrid of autocracy and military dictatorship. Receptive Red States will be governed under autocracy, while Blue portions of the country will get the full force of the military rod.

But there are a lot of problems with all of this, no matter how much Trump’s toadies may think they have everything figured out.

The key thing is, none of this is going to happen in a political vacuum. Trump can invoke the Insurrection Act all he wants to, but, in the end, the U.S. Military is not the Nazi SA and isn’t going to act as such. At its heart, the U.S. Military is made up of men and women who believe in democracy.

As such, there’s every reason to believe that if push comes to shove that not even the U.S. Military will be spared a cleaving between MAGA and Blues. It could be that Trump is such a malignant dumbass that he manages to destroy every single nation-wide institution in the United States, even the U.S. Military. That’s pretty deep, but also looking very possible.

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. American democracy either transitions into a hybrid of autocracy and direct military dictatorship….or Biden wins? Or something else happens I can’t predict? Maybe 2024 will be like 2020 and we manage to punt our problems down the road another four years.

At the moment, however, we’re in a “Not great, Bob,” situation.

I Have Not Felt This Amount Of Momentum For MAGA Since 2016

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I remember what it was like in 2015-2016. There was real excitement and momentum when it came to MAGA. And, sadly, I feel that same way now. There is real excitement, momentum on the part of MAGA. There is a lot of energy on the side of people who want…fascism, autocracy.

So, lulz?

It definitely seems as though This Is It. The End. We’re fucked. Now, there is a lot of Known Unknowns. There are plenty of things that could give us an off ramp and allow us to punt our structural problems down the road another four years.

But at the same time, it definitely seems we’re careening towards a hybrid autocracy – military dictatorship demanding on where you live in the United States. I think we have to accept that we need to recalibrate our expectations for life in the United States post-Trump swearing in.

We. Are. So. Fucked.

A lot of angry white angry people want a white Christian ethnostate. They are willing to give up their American birthright of living in a free country simply because they hate brown people, trans people and women with economic agency more.

The future fucking sucks. There are no easy answers. There is no endgame. We just have to figure out how to survive.

How Worried, Really, Should We Be About Trump’s Second Term?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s telling how different the two sides see the prospect of a Trump second term. The Right thinks the Left is completely nuts for worrying about it at all. And, yet, it definitely SEEMS from all available evidence that we should be extremely worried about a second Trump term.

The key issue being, Trump seems to think the Insurrection Act is magic fascist pixie dust that he can use from day one to impose his will on Blues who don’t want to live in a white Christian ethnostate. The key thin is, if you live in the rural part of a Red States, life is unlikely to change all that much for you in a Trump second term.

But for anyone living in either a Blue State, a Blue City in a Red State or the Blue part of a Purple State — holy shit, should you be worried. I think this because it seems as though Trump wants to rule those parts of the country as not just an autocratic thug, but as an actual military dictator.

Him doing that would be a very unstable, volatile situation with no ready endgame. We could see a MAGA counter revolution, then a coup then a National Divorce then a civil war / revolution. Or not. Maybe the Right has it all figured out and I’m bonkers to worry so much.

Only time will tell. No one can predict the future — especially me.