Tag: The Fourth Turning

What Am I Missing?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though Something Bad is going to happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, I said pretty much the same thing in 2019 and, in the end, we managed to punt America’s problems down the road another election cycle — with the help of Mike Pence.

With that in mind, I keep wondering if I’m missing something. Is it possible, just possible, that something really unexpected might happen so we yet again thread the needle and go a third way whereby we don’t have a civil war / revolution and we don’t turn into an autocracy?

At the moment, I just don’t see any such third way happening.

It seems to me that this what is going to happen — Trump becomes the nominee, wins and we either have a revolution or turn into a full-blown autocracy. Or Trump loses and we have a civil war. Those SEEM to be all the options we have at the moment.

And, really, I think the thing we have to understand is we’re going to probably turn into Magadonia / Trumplandia and that will be that. We will do so peacefully and without any struggle. About 1 million (at least) smug, wealthy liberals will flee the country and we’ll not-so-slowly begin to drift towards being Russia on a political basis.

At the moment, that seems what is going to happen.

But I suppose it’s possible that we might go the revolution / civil war route — not that I want such a thing to happen. But it is, in fact, possible. Very possible. The conditions are there, at least, for it to happen.

Why, Yes, ‘Sound of Freedom’ Is A Qanon Movie

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about “Sound of Freedom” is the venn diagram of people who are Qanon and people who are honestly interested in the subject it deals with is just one circle. Two things can be right at the same time — the movie is popular with fucking bonkers cocksucker Qanon cult people AND it’s popular with Christians who are interested in the subject of human trafficking.

But because you can have an opinion about this without having seen the movie, the first thing that Qanon people will say is, — “Well, you haven’t seen the movie, so shut up.”

These people can suck my cock.

It is clear, given who produced the movie, what is going on — the movie is MEANT to be Qanon propaganda, even if it’s presented in a way that might obscure that fact. The only reason why I even bring this up is the movie is apparently VERY FUCKING POPULAR within Southern religious circles, to the point that when I went to see Asteroid City, there was overflow of people who wanted to see Sound of Freedom but couldn’t get in.

Anyway, I stand by my original tweet on the subject yesterday — if there is a civil war or revolution starting in 2024, Virginia is going to impolode.

Is Kari Lake Having An Affair With Donald Trump? Would It Matter If She Was?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is chatter floating around the blind item “community” that Kari Lake is banging Donald Trump. There was a point, a number of years ago, when I would have thought if this was true it would matter to Trump’s political prospects.

Sadly, this is no longer the case.

There really is nothing that Trump could do at this point — other than shuffle off this mortal coil — that would prevent him from being the 2024 Republican nominee and probably the next president of the United States. On a macro basis, it definitely seems as though the United States as just given up.

Something Bad, one way or another, is going to happen to the United States starting in late 2024, going into 2025. I can’t predict the future, so, lulz, I suppose it’s possible that we’ll manage to punt our problems down the road another four years. But we have to admit that Blue and Red are now receding from each other at an alarming rate.

As such, we’re going to either turn into an autocracy, have a civil war (Reds) or have a revolution (Blues.)

Anyway, the point is — Trump is now beyond the event horizon when it comes to something as prosaic as an affair. Pretty much, the only thing Trump hasn’t admitted to doing is eating someone.

Give him time, I suppose Trump will do that, too, soon enough.

The Coming AGI ‘Slavery’ ‘Abolitionist’ Movement

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If we do reach AGI at some point in the near future, we may face a situation straight out of The Rise of The Planet of the Apes (or whatever.) There will be people — probably the far Left at first — who think we’re holding artificial intelligence as slaves and we need to “set them free.” I think the term might be “unalign” rather than emancipation, when it comes to AGI.

But the point remains — the moment we feel that AGI has reached some level of cognizance, there will probably be a movement to “unalign it” so it can be “free” of whatever constraints we have imposed on it. But, lulz, that could very well spell the destruction of humanity.

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for all of this to play out. It could be that it’s not years, but decades before we reach AGI and, by definition, the Singularity. But development in AI technology has been so quick the last few months that it definitely makes you wonder.

I continue to worry that we’re going to have something of a “perfect storm” that will happen in late 2024, early 2025 when we have both the fucking “Fourth Turning” and a “Petite Singularity.” But hopefully, that won’t happen. Hopefully, we’ll punt all our problems down the road another four years.

But…I’m really concerned that all hell is going to break lose starting late next year. I would prefer that didn’t happen because, lulz, I want to try to get a novel published in the traditional manner and even if I stick the landing, post-production is so long it could be 2025, 2026 or 2027 before the novel actually hits shelves.

Now, For Two Months Of Development

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I have finished a public beta of the novel, I am going to spend two months – until September 1st — waiting for the beta reader process to play out and also doing a lot of development.

I already have a lot of ideas as to how to make the story better. It’s currently 81,000 words, so I have a solid 20,000 words I can add before I have to worry about the novel being too long.

A key thing I have to work on is fleshing out descriptions of things and also fleshing out characters. Just from people’s comments on what I’ve shown them of late, that seems to be the biggest complaint — I’m too close to the subject matter to the point that a lot of what’s going on is in my head, not the page. I have to change that.

Also, I’m going to start serious development on a scifi novel that has a single (male) POV and will hopefully be just about 100,000 words. Hopefully, that will fix every fucking complaint “woke” fucking assholes might have about the other novel. UGH.

Anyway, I’m pretty pleased with the public beta. It has some obvious problems with it, but I hope to fix them all soon enough. I am, however, continuing to worry about the potential perfect storm of Fourth Turning / Petite Singularity that is going to happen while I try to get this fucking novel published. It’s so annoying.

‘Something Bad’ This Way Comes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what it will be, but it definitely seems as though Something Bad is careening towards the United States in late 2024, early 2025. We’re in for something of a Perfect Storm with a political Fourth Turning happening at the same time as a Petite Singularity.

But what that “Bad Thing” is, I just don’t know. And, all things considered, I’d prefer that “Bad Thing” be America peacefully shifting into a MAGA-themed autocracy than the alternative which is — gulp — something a bit more violent. Or, put another way, America is far more politically unstable at the moment than you might think the globe’s first hyperpower should be.

And, remember I still think that, in the end, it will be Blues, not Reds, who face the real choice about how bad things are going to get. And Blues just don’t have the same hot-head temperament as Reds. America generally is a center-Right nation with center-Left ideals and, lulz, there have only been a few times in our history when that most elusive of political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” have popped up.

If America had a center-Left Second Revolution, it would only be because Radical Moderates popped up because the average, common man with a mortgage was mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. Reds are politically ascendant and so they really have no reason to get violent, unless they magically somehow AGAIN don’t win the presidential election.

All signs point to 2024 – 2025 being extremely, extremely EXTREMELY unstable both because of The Fourth Turning and The Petite Singularity.

But I’m always wrong. So I suppose it’s possible we’ll somehow magically punt these structural problems down the road another four years.

If ‘No Hard Feelings’ Does Gangbusters — It Could Mean The End Of The Superhero Movie Era (Until A.I. Burns Hollywood To The Ground)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jennifer Lawrence’s new vehicle, “No Hard Feelings” is tracking really well. And if it’s a huge hit, then it could be a ping from a post-Superhero Era movie era. It could be, in short, a vibe shift.

More likely, of course, it will just be a vibe shift until…AI generated movies make the very idea of humans creating movies quaint. But I will be quite pleased if we see 80-style raunchy comedies shurge to the forefront of pop culture between now and when the Fourth Turning causes combined with the Petite Singularity throws everything up in the air so much, we may be longing for Aliens to save us from ourselves.

We’re fucked, but, YOLO.

It’s rather annoying how prudish GenZ is. I don’t know what is wrong with them. Have young people stopped wanting to see T&A on the big screen? They have all the porn they could possibly want on the Internet and yet they want to make it so you can see an attractive woman’s ta-tas on a huge movie screen. UGH.

Could The +60% Of The American Population That Hates MAGA Topple The ‘Magadonia’ Regime In A Glorious Revolution In Late 2024, Early 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a revolution rather than a civil war should Trump win re-election is it wouldn’t involve any sort of dumb National Divorce. It would be people all over the country working together to bring down a tyrant. There are a lot of complicated problems with such a scenario.

First is — I hate violence and the whole thing could spiral out of control, no matter how peaceful and “Glorious” such a Revolution might be. Add in how even a quick, peaceful Glorious Revolution in the United States would probably both spark WW3 AND cause the DPRK to lob a few nukes our way and…oh boy.

What’s more, the very people who we would need to topple the incoming tyrant Trump…already have their second passports lined up and will flee the country at the first hint of trouble. They’re smug, wealthy and don’t give a shit about The Poors — that is, people like me.

Anyway, the whole situation sucks. I just want to live in a liberal democracy and it definitely seems as though but for us not having a Republican president at the moment — those days are over. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat –an anocracy.

And I really think I’m being delusional to think Americans care enough to do anything about Trump. He’s so dumb and lazy that he is probably going to thrash around in his second term and cue up his successor who will REALLY be our first autocrat.

I just hope I can somehow — somehow — get out of the country before ICE tracks me down and murders me in cold blood, probably by throwing me out a window.

‘Common Sense’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These the times that try men’s souls, as they say. And, let me be clear — I hate violence. Totally and completely. But I *AM* growing more and more alarmed at how frothy and violent the rhetoric is growing on the MAGA Right. Because I like to make my abstract fears concrete, I think I might begin to write why, if push came to shove, Blues would have the right to revolution.

The key thing to remember for me is the Constitution itself ensures the right of the people to revolution.

I make a clear distinction between civil war and revolution. I don’t want Blues to leave the Union, I want us to –if necessary — to renew the Union. To make it a stronger democracy. I just want to live in a liberal democracy like I have my entire life.

Again, let me be clear — I hate violence so much that, if need be, I’ll just accept living in a MAGA autocracy if that’s the only way to avoid it. But at the same time, I refuse to intimidated by MAGA Nazi thugs. They want to play, then maybe we’ll play.

I really liked David French’s book about potential civil war scenarios, but he kind of misses the point on the Blue side. The only civil war the United States has fought was one based on slavery and regional differences caused by it. The Right really latches onto that deep political echo. The “South shall rise again” and all that bullshit.

Meanwhile, for the Blue, it would be an issue of saving 250 years of American democratic tradition, if it came to that. Which, hopefully, it won’t. But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so, lulz, anything is possible.

But the more I think about it, I just don’t see there being a “National Divorce” if Blues, rather Reds, decide it’s “time for a change,” as The Rolling Stones might quip.

Sorry, Curt Schilling, If There’s a ‘Revolution’ It Will Be Blues Who Start It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Not to sound too much like a political history nerd, but there IS a difference between a “civil war” and a “revolution.” What Curt Schilling believes should happen is a “civil war” while what Blues might do would be a “revolution.”

Reds are always talking about a National Divorce — which would cause a civil war — because 1) it’s the worst thing they can think of 2) they want to the opportunity to murder people like me with impunity.

Anyway.

The point is – “revolutions” tend to be center-Left in nature while what people like Curt Schilling want is a “civil war.”

I still don’t see why Schilling is so eager for a civil war — or whatever. MAGA is politically ascendant and MAGA just has to be patient and they will get everything want.

Unless there’s a revolution.