Tag: The Fourth Turning

The 2022 Mid-Terms May Be A MAGA Counter-Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I do not believe that the American press has done a very good job of preparing the public for how dark things may get if Republicans control the House and or the Senate. Republicans are now so radical that they’re fascist and autocratic. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy unless you win the election.

And, really, the curious thing is what doesn’t seem to be on the cusp of happening — Speaker Trump.

Trump being Speaker of the House is something that would be a basic autocratic play for any other person in Trump’s position. But Trump is such a lazy idiot and has such poor abstract thought abilities that he just can’t process in his mind how politically advantageous it would be for him to be Speaker.

But the key issue we have to remember is the only way we end the MAGA Republican threat is probably a civil war. That’s it. I say this because MAGA is now American Nazism and, in the end, the only way to end MAGA is how we ended Nazism — in the field of battle.

Let me be clear, however — I hate violence. I don’t want any form of violence, so what I just wrote is just an abstract, back of the envelope statement. So, we have to accept that we’re probably going to turn into a political clone of Nazi Germany at some point after Republicans steal / win the 2024 election. Then everyone who can will flee the country, just like people did when the Nazis took over Germany.

The point is — if Republicans take the House and or Senate, they are going to do everything in their power to destroy what’s left of American democracy so they can prime conditions for the final coup de grace. Or, put another way, the years 2023 – 2024 will be extremely dark and turbulent if Republicans have any sort of meaningful power.

I don’t know what to tell you. Get a passport. Game out where you might be able to flee to when the final darkness of autocratic MAGA fascism drapes across the country.

What If Democrats Manage To Pull Off An Upset In The 2022 Midterms?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I woke up this morning to Axios telling me in breathless terms how fucked Democrats obviously were in tomorrow’s 2022 midterms. For anyone who is a fan of the Twitter account New York Times Pitchbot, it was yet another example of how what should be a parody account pretty much is reality at this point.

I don’t know why, but the mainstream press, far from being in the bag for Democrats, seem to believe the only way they can be “objective” is to shit on Democrats every chance they can get.

This does not, however, stop your typical conservative from being hysterical in their belief that one of the reasons they want to burn the country to the ground is the “media elites” won’t give them a fair shake. The fact that Republicans lie so much about things that we can all see not to be true is yet another sign that Something’s Gotta Give.

We can’t keep punting this shit down the road forever.

But let’s go back to the issue at hand — what if Axios is wrong? What if somehow Democrats manage to keep both the House and Senate?

The reason why it’s difficult for me to believe this is possible is macro trends indicate that MAGA and the associated slide into autocrat fascism is very, very popular within the American electorate. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy at all — or at least not believe in any election where they lose.

But, just for the sake of argument, what if Democrats manage an upset?

I think if that happened, the first thing that would happen is Republicans would scream bloody murder because they would point to all the polls going into the election that indicated THEY were going to win. Which, given that they funded these flood-the-zone polls, this whole argument will be bullshit.

One apparent flashpoint is going to be Pennsylvania, specifically the area around Philadelphia. Apparently, we’re at risk of another Brooks Brother Riot in that area if things don’t go Republican’s way tomorrow.

The one thing that is not going to happen is Republicans suddenly having a come to Jesus moment about democracy. Rather than doing the obvious — changing their views so they’re more popular — Republicans are going to double down, triple down on their love of autocratic fascism.

They will see any defeat at the polls as a sign that their efforts to steal elections haven’t been aggressive enough. They are determined to strangle American democracy once and for all at any cost.

Abortion Politics, MAGA & The Rise Of A Very American Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Whenever I talk politics these days with my far more conservative relatives — who I love dearly — inevitably the subject of abortion comes up and inevitably I come away at a loss.

There are so many contradictions and poorly thought out things connected to cause and effect that it’s difficult to process. The most glaring paradox is, of course, is that “pro-life” advocates got so fucking worked up for 50 years about how “every life is precious” then when COVID hit the country they were fully prepared to sacrifice Elders to the grim reaper. Unless, of course, they were related to them, then that was different.

Meanwhile, it seems as though MAGA is offended that abortion is mentioned at all in the public square. They take ANY mention of it, even in the effort to keep women safe, as gratuitous and taboo. They get all worked up about how states like California tell women they can still get abortions there, as if the state is advocating they have abortions instead of carry their fetus to term.

So, for a lot of conservatives, all abortions must be illegal because, by definition, abortion is only used for birth control. But wait, there’s more — these very same people have used all sorts of birth control themselves and they lulz the idea that MAGA is coming after legal birth control next, even for married people.

Abortion was always a legal firebreak for birth control in general and now that it’s gone, all of the passion behind ending Roe is now going after overturning the legal framework that has kept any form of birth control legal.

This all points out the central tenant of MAGA — they have a very poor grasp of how they keep hurting their self interests with some of their much sought after policies. They’re oblivious to it until, of course, it gets personal, then they secretly pay for an abortion or whatever. They don’t mind being hypocrites. In fact, that’s kind of their thing.

Now, obviously, there is another Red Line that I’m very concerned about — once the United States is an autocracy, the clock will be ticking for when I cross the autocrat and an ICE agent shoots me in the back of the head. I’ve had the luxury of being a loud mouth crank in a liberal democracy and once that’s no longer the case, my goose is cooked.

I’m probably going to be one of the first victims of the autocrat simply because I’m never, ever going to fucking shut up — even if my far more conservative relatives beg me to “for the sake of the family.”

Free speech is part of my American birthright and I plan to exercise it to the very end.

Dave Chappelle, Or How I Learned To Quit Worrying & Love The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes when I talk to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m aghast at how different they perceive the world relative to me. At the very forefront of their mind is the idea that the “woke cancel culture mob” is not only “grooming” children, but they will “cancel” anyone who is conservative enough to question their aggressive “gay agenda.”

Not canceled.

Ugh.

A prime of example of this bizarre world view is Dave Chappelle. My Traditionalist relatives believe that because of his aggressive anti-trans stance, that Chappelle’s career is dead and he now lives under an assumed name along with all the other “canceled” conservatives of Hollywood.

Of course, this is complete bullshit.

Chappelle is doing fine. He’s very popular and continues to have a robust career. But the expression my Traditionalist conservatives give me when I point this out is complete disbelief. They really believe that the “woke cancel culture mob” is so absolutely powerful that by definition if you have the temerity to cross them that you burst into flames and descend into some sort of “canceled” hell to be with a groomer Satan or some such.

This is why I just don’t believe there is any hope for America anymore. The idea that the people who otherwise would be the bedrock of our democracy now apparently, in the abstract, live in abject fear of having their lives ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” just for being conservative is extremely alarming. They are primed and ready to, when the time comes, support America’s transition into autocracy.

Then, of course, the only question we face is do we endup around Hungary and Turkey politically or do we careen towards something closer to Russia or Nazi Germany. At the moment, I honestly can’t game things out that far.

And, yet, it definitely seems that this is it. Call it the Fourth Turning, or the “Great Reset,” or whatever the fuck you want, but the United States is far less stable than you might otherwise think. And, really, the issue is — when MAGA demands Blues bend a knee to autocratic fascism, do they do it or do they serve papers on a National Divorce?

At the moment, I think Blues are going to be so sucker punched by how rapidly the transition to fascism happens in the United States that they’ll just shrug and let it happen. After a brief moment of panic in late 2024, early 2025, we’ll just slip into autocracy, probably through a process that will ultimately end in a Constitutional Convention.

There is a small chance of a military junta, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re going to flee once the American Nazis known as MAGA finally consolidate power.

Will The 2022 Midterms Cause A Second American Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I think most of the reason America has civil war on the brain is for people on the Right, it is, in abstract terms, the worst thing they can possibly think of to happen because of dem dar libtards. They have no idea what they really mean by “civil war,” other than some vague notion should one happen, that they will, at last, be able to murder liberals in cold blood for political reasons without any expectation of criminal accountability.

But I hate abstract concepts like some nebulous “civil war” and so I want to break the abstract down into something more concrete.

First, I just don’t see MAGA getting so upset if they should lose the 2022 midterms that they start running around, killing liberals with their AR-15s that they seem to want to fuck so bad. There might be some pretty big protests, maybe a few Brooks Brothers Riots here and there and maybe even an insurrection….but not “civil war” in the way that Barbara F. Walter might suggest could happen.

I still believe, at the moment, that if there is a “civil war” in the United States, it will happen because, just like the first civil war, states begin to secede from the Union — a National Divorce, if you will.

As such, there are two ways that the 2022 midterms might cause a civil war. One would be that Republicans freak out when they lose and Trump gets it in his mind that he’s had enough — he begins to rant that Red States need to secede and establish something akin to Trumplandia. Meanwhile, the OTHER way the 2022 midterms might cause a civil war would be that Republicans gain control of Congress, Trump becomes Speaker of the House and in the process of impeaching both Biden and Harris, Trump dangles the idea of Red States seceding over the heads of the Senate.

But, as always, I’m obviously greatly overestimated Trump’s cognative abilities. Trump is both lazy and stupid to the point that even the most basic autocratic plays — like him becoming Speaker — may be out of his tiny little mind’s grasp. If he does it, it will be without much forethought.

I think he has being president again so much at the forefront of his mind these days that he can’t process being Speaker instead.

If we don’t have a civil war in 2023 because of the results of the 2022 midterms, we’re probably safe until, well, 2024 – 2025 when Blues will be forced to make an existential choice: bend a knee to fascist MAGA autocracy, or serve Reds papers on a National Divorce.

At the moment, I think we’re just going to slide peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

What The Fuck Is Wrong With The United States?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

American politics at the moment is a shit show and has been for some time. It’s completely fucking bonkers. And, what’s worse, it’s all happening in broad daylight. We see the lights of an oncoming train, we’re on the tracks and we’re just standing there, waiting to get hit.

I keep saying we’re beyond the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war or military junta and every day I’m reminded of how right I am. MAGA Republicans now openly embrace some pretty basic elements of fascism and they’re screaming at the top of their lungs that they only believe in democracy if they win.

The idea that if Trump is indicted then he becomes a martyr for the cause, forcing Republicans to cling to him even tighter is seriously fucked up. I suppose we can at least be thankful that Trump is such a lazy idiot that there’s every reason to believe his innate laziness and incompetence may at least delay our final decent into fascism.

But there is the counter argument that Trump, unto himself, could force the United States into civil war. It could be that his historical purpose is not to be a transitional figure on our march to fascist autocracy, but the person who just by being a malignant digus causes the country to collapse.

As I keep saying, I just don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. The reason why the country seems to have civil war on the brain is the far fucking Right is made up of a bunch of fucking crybabies who take any perceived slight as the some sort of tyrannical oppression of what they hold dear.

Tectonic forces are at work here, things that are just difficult for one person to process. We’re all living through a massive historical event and as it’s happening to us, it has no value or narrative on a personal basis. As such, it won’t be until it’s all over with and we look back at what just happened that we’ll be able to understand how the fuck it all ended up happening.

Let me again stress — I do not pretend to be able to predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. I’m always wrong. Always. But I’m growing more and more alarmed that Something Bad is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, spring 2025.

The country is tearing itself apart in a pretty conspicuous manner there are two main issues that I just can’t game out at the moment. One is, like I mentioned, is it possible that Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war? And the other is, am I right to have such a low opinion of Blues ability to serve National Divorce papers on Reds if Trump — or whomever — demands Blues bend a knee to MAGA fascism?

I think that we’ll be a lot closer to knowing what is going to happen next after the midterms. That is when we’re going to lurch towards our fate one way or another, depending on the outcome of the vote. If Republicans win Congress, then things are going to get lit pretty quick. Meanwhile, of Blues somehow managed to keep Congress, then, well, the possibility of MAGA political violence will increase significantly.

All of this is part of how fucking bonkers America is right now. Something Big is on the horizon, but the question is: what?

‘I Just Want To Be Left Alone’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the go-to talking points of one of my well meaning, sincere conservative relatives is the idea that he just wants to be”left alone.”

I really struggle with what he means by this. If I brought up how the state telling a woman what she can and can’t do with her body definitely goes against his mantra, I doubt he would process what I was implying the same way. In his mind, he doesn’t really hold a coherent ideological stance other than a vague, abstract fear that the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to either force him to turn gay or ruin his life just because he’s conservative.

This mentality is also why he just can’t validate my fears of what will happen to ME if the United States becomes a MAGA themed autocracy. Not until I’m abducted by ICE and tortured will it become real to him that maybe he should have joined forces with me and people like me when he had a chance to save democracy.

There is a real crisis in the United States when it comes to Traditionalists. Something about the second Obama Administration broke their minds. Something about how there was a sudden, abrupt change in social expectations and gender dynamics really spooked them. Whatever was that happened spooked them to the point that they are gleefully waiting for a MAGA themed fascist autocracy to consume the United States so things will go back to the way they were — America will, at last, be great again.

But in their eagerness to murder American democracy, they are totally oblivious to how they are directly connected to people — ME — who probably will have an ICE bullet put in his head when he simply refuses to shut the fuck up about our Very American Autocrat is a piece of shit who can suck his cock.

I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment. But when the United States turns into a white Christian ethnostate — which seems to be an immutable, inevitable aspect of our future history at the moment — people like me will have a choice.

Either we leave the country, never to be seen again, or we risk being “disappeared” by ICE (or whatever agency the autocracy ultimately weaponizes.)

But back to the idea of my relative just wanting to be “left alone.” It’s my impression that much of the rage of my well-meaning conservative relative comes from the regular sensitivity training he has to undergo as part of his corporate job. What is that, however, but the free market working? If it’s a private company doing that sort of “woke” things, then they’ve decided for some reason that it’s in the best interest of their shareholders for the employees to at least be aware of how some people have a different perception of race and gender roles.

And, yet, that’s not how my conservative relative sees things. Without even realizing what he’s articulating, he’s pontificating on his support for white identity politics. He doesn’t believe in democracy because he wants keep white people on top, even as the white birth rate plummets and America becomes a majority minority nation.

There is so much more to talk about, but I’ll cut it short to make this specific point – all things being equal, Blues should secede from the United States and found a Blue Union that is on the same page about what we expect from each other on a whole host of issues.

But, by definition, such a National Divorce would grow horrifically violent and I don’t want that. So, autocracy or military junta it is, I suppose.

It’s Like America, as a Nation, Has Collectively Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want the most recent reason why I think all those earnest, well meaning yet racist and mysgonistic MAGA cocksuckers can fuck off, look no further than Elon Musk amplifying this particular gem.

So, instead of taking responsibility for spewing hate and inciting stochastic terrorism, all those ernest, well meaning, well educated MAGA dickheads continue to double down on all their lies and hate. They just can not accept that they’re in the wrong on this one.

I continue to be at a loss as to how otherwise normal people can be so consumed by hate that they gleefully spread disinformation about people like Paul Pelosi. Or they take the attack as an opportunity to joke around.

It makes you wonder what will happen if something REALLY BAD happens. My guess is all those well meaning MAGA fuckheads will go silence for a few days while the Powers That Be at Fox News and Right wing podcasts think up their talking points so they can continue to “own the libs.”

Usually, what happens is, once they come out the other side, their talking points are all spin. They try to rationalize the Bad Thing out of existence, or say “thoughts and prayers” or even “we have a national mental health crisis.” But what if a major center-Left figure is seriously hurt as part of stochastic terrorism?

I can only assume that the only difference will be the length of their radio silence. But in end result would be the same — MAGA simply refusing to accept that they are to blame with all their frothy rhetoric about how center-Left people “groom” children.

So the country continues to circle the drain. The forces of fascist MAGA continue to gain power and will ultimately force Blues to make a choice — bend a knee to autocracy, or demand a National Divorce. There is the possibility that the U.S. Military may step in and we’ll be ruled by some sort of military junta for a little while as we wait for the passions of the 2024 election to cool down.

Or not. Good luck. And fuck MAGA cocksuckers.

It Can Happen Here

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading a political biography about the rise of Hitler — as one does — and the key takeaway so far is: it can happen here. We like to make ourselves feel better by believing that the rise of the Nazis was something unique to the German psyche after The Great War.

But the more I read about Hitler’s ascent, the more I realize that it Can Happen Here. Though, of course, Trump could not be more different than Hitler. I’m just at the book where Hitler’s personal characteristics are described and Trump is no Hitler.

The way Hitler is described really lays bare how Trump is just an empty suit who happened to at the right place at the right time to be a vessel, an avatar for white Christian rage over the browning of America and the rise of economically liberated women. (All the bitching and moaning about “wokeness” and homophobia is just something that happens on the Right because it’s politically expedient.)

Anyway, all signs point to A Very American Autocracy. And there is one specific problem which could very well cause Nazi-like genocide in the United States: race.

Once the United States is no longer a democracy, the more vile elements of the American experience could grow dangerously amplified to the point that there are Killing Fields in upstate New York and in various places around the South. The United States could implode into a situation where the only way we get rid of our American Nazi overlords is they grow so extreme that there is some sort of mass revolt.

Or, I don’t know, NATO, Japanese and Korean forces swoop in and topple the MAGA fascists who are murdering millions at an alarming clip by that point.

The point is — be very alarmed. Everything from Election Night 2022 to January 2025 (and beyond) could be historic and flabbergasting. Something’s gotta give. Call it the Fourth Turning or the Great Reset — America is in for a very, very bumpy ride.

The Apocalypse On The Brain

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have often joked that if The End came, I would either be the first person to die as darkness fell or I would survive and be the guy who brought civilization back. And I still think that as it definitely seems the possibility of an epic collapse is now greater than zero.

But what would the collapse look like?

It seems to me that there are a number of different ways I might find myself being a lonely figure walking down the middle of an abandoned highway, looking for sustenance. At the moment, we have nuclear war, civil war and maybe another pandemic as possible reasons while modern human civilization might collapse in a rather abrupt manner.

With all the talk of a “dirty bomb” being used as a false flag by the Russians against the Ukrainians, that particular apocalyptic scenario writes itself. Things go boom, things escalate and the next thing you know I’m grateful that I live in a rural area. A nuclear war of some sort is probably the nastiest of how the world might end because it would take a lot longer for humanity to bounce back if you take into account Nuclear Winter.

Meanwhile, there is the possibility of a Second American Civil War. This is by far, the most likely of the scenarios I can think of. If I had the means, I would already be living as an expat somewhere, never to return to America. But I’m a Poor, so I’m stuck here while we careen towards the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Given that if the United States implodes that WW3 is probably going to happen along with it, things are probably going to get pretty messy globally in late 2024 – early 2025 if the United States has some sort of secession crisis when Blues attempt to leave the Union.

The last way I can think of that I might find myself fending for my life in a post-apocalyptic America would be another pandemic, but this time one that was far, far worse. The Big One, if you will. If I managed to survive, then I would have to search for food and shelter while I looked for others like me. This is the most speculative of the three possible scenarios.

Regardless, I definitely find myself thinking about shit like this these days. I would prefer not to have to go through any of it. I have six novels I’d like to write and get published.