Tag: The Thousand Year Trump

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.

Even Our Best Case Scenarios Suck: Trump’s Coming Stress Test Of The Constitution



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even our best case scenario in the next three months sucks. Our best case scenario is something, “In the end, after having nearly destroyed the Consutition in a rabid bid to stay in power, Trump pardons himself and flys AF1 to Pyongyang and quits.”

What I mean by this is, Trump has made it clear he’s going to exhaust every possible option before he leaves office. And it’s reasonable to assume that we have a Vote Certification Crisis and a Elector Intimidation Crisis ahead of us. Trump will use violence and the threat of violence make seem as though he has a chance of actually “legally” staying president, when, in fact, it’s simply the usual “autocrats never lose” situation.

This is all the lull before the storm, I’m afraid. Not only do we have to worry about Trump winning one of his bullshit lawsuits at SCOTUS, we have to worry about Trump starting a war to Wag The Dog or naming Rudy FBI director so he can frogwalk Joe Biden in an attempt to negotiate his own escape from justice.

And all that’s the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario is someone blows something up and TrumpBarr use that as excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” In essence, there’s something akin to a coup and with that I simply can’t even map out an endgame.

Anything from Trump mysteriously staying power to a actual civil war / revolution could happen should such things happen. As I mentioned, it’s possible that Trump could really flip his lid and start a war with the DPRK or Iran for the sole purpose of making us so distracted that he can be a War President and mysteriously, again, never leave office.

I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But we have to take the possibility of such bullshit seriously.

I Have Every Reason To Believe Trump Is Going To Destroy The United States Via A Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s some serious silence going on. Republicans aren’t acting like they accept that Trump lost. And the infrastructure exists for TrumpBarr to stage an attempted court coup. All that has to happen is just one of their bullshit lawsuits go to SCOTUS and successfully narrow or redefine what a “legal ballot” is and, well, that’s it — a coup happens and then a civil war or revolution.

As an aside, it’s darkly humorous how many people from Red States — especially Southern Red States — show up in my Webstats whenever I rant about the possibility of the United States descending into civil war. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of Red State people are actually looking forward to a civil war. Why this would be the case is beyond me. As I have repeatedly ranted about — Blue States (once they get their act together) are in a far better military position than Red States.

But anyway, the point is — we are now potentially living through a 2020 version of what happened immediately after Lincoln won the 1860 election. Southern (Red) States are in shock. They never expected Biden — or Lincoln — to win and now they’re weighing their options.

Republicans are so blinded by ideology and negative polarization that they are barreling towards “catching the car” in the courts with total disregard to what happens if they are successful. Now that the election has been called, they’ve lost an enormous political advantage. They blew it. If they had struck before the election was called, then they probably would have had a 50-50 shot of “not losing” the election.

But now, if they strike and win in the courts, things are going to get very violent, very quickly. So violent that Trump will be looked back upon as the man personally responsible for the destruction of the American First Republic. The country will implode into civil war and or revolution and there will be no going back. And, in fact, there’s a chance that when all is said and done there will be two nations — Trumplandia and the rump United States.

It’s going to be horrific if it any of this happens. I’m notorious for being wrong of late, but Trump is a deranged moronic fascist autocrat with the entire Republican Party willing to back him up no matter what. They just don’t care. They want as much power as they can possibly obtain and if that means destroying any semblance of democracy in America, then cry more lib.

Really, the reason why I’m growing so nervous is the silence of the Republican Party. This is not normal. A series of things have to happen before Biden is sworn in, so if it’s not attacking and corrupting the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be Trump doxing the human Electors who will actually vote for he or Biden.

He will “joke” that they need to “respect the 2nd Amendment” and before you know it, mobs of MAGA fucktards show up at their homes and threaten to kill their family if they don’t change their vote and vote for Trump.

I’m not kidding. This may very well happen.

Autocrats never lose, as they say. I will suggest, however, that when the history of the Second American Republic is written, the fact that we finally called the election may be of far more historical significance than we realize right now.

The Future Of Hollywood in Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is now an autocracy. It’s obvious that the Trumplandia infection gone septic. Because of white identity politics, about 50% of the population is so afraid of being “canceled” — or are seriously greedy fucks – that they would rather end 240 years of liberal democracy than risk giving away power to the browning of America or women with sexual agency.

But, is becoming a common refrain for me, none of this is going to happen in a vacuum. As TrumpBarr begin to strengthen their grip on America in an practical fashion — probably by weaponizing the already existing ICE infrastructure — this is going to give creative types something they thrive on: a limit. Art has to have limits so they can be toyed with, almost crossed and generally fucked with. Artists need something to make them angry and if they know speaking ill of the autocrat is a big no-no, then, of course, that’s the one thing they’re going to want to do.

I know for me, at least, that my rage against the Trump Administration has fueled the two years of hard work necessary to get me this far with the allegorical thriller I’m working on. (But it’s not Network — it’s not nearly as allegorical as maybe it should be given how aggressive ICE will become soon enough.)

It’s at least possible that once the shouting’s over and Trump’s court coup is successful, that 50% of the American population is going to need a cathartic release. As such, the entire American entertainment industry might be revolutionized. (But this in context — Hollywood may move somewhere like Perth before it’s over with if Trump puts the squeeze on studio executives.)

The point is — if nothing else, a lot of angry art might begin to grow very popular. We might, just might see the return of punk or rock music. The gritty movies like we had in the early 1970s might grow more popular. There might be extremes — the serious movies will grow darker and the funny movies more funny.

They will all have a point, though — attacking the autocrat without crossing the line so everyone gets arrested and thrown into an ICE camp.

No Fate But What We Make –‘Autocracy or The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m actively tuning out of what’s going on right now with the election. If I could, I would be “The Man In The High Castle.” For various reasons, I can’t escape the events of the outside world seeping into my little writing cocoon that I’ve managed to establish overnight.

So, here’s what’s going on in my view.

I was right — autocrats never lose. The conditions that allowed Trump to win in the first place are simply too powerful. The descent into autocracy is complete. It happened right before our eyes over the last four years. We should have been tipped off about this inevitably by we could never muster up the political will to do anything about Trump, no matter how bad he got.

The bad guys have won. If you follow the idea of “form follows function,” the next thing that will happen once Trump steals the election at SCOTUS will be a swift consolidation of power. Using the threat of revoking broadcast licensing, the entire media world will be purged. And the entire intelligence infrastructure will be purged of the “deep state” as well.

As some point, very soon, Trump is going to start tweeting about how the budget deficit is too big and we ABSOLUTELY have to past a balance budget amendment. But we have to call a Constitutional Convention to do it. The same dynamic we’ve seen the last four years will happen. He’ll get his Constitutional Convention and because it will be made up of MAGA sycophants, they will go rouge and pass a “Second Bill of Rights,” which is, in fact, something akin to American Enabling Acts.

Trump will also leave NATO and form some sort of autocratic alliance with Russia, Turkey, Hungry, (rump) England and the Philippines. The entire post-world war two liberal order will come crashing down and everything will be rearranged. This will probably be sold to the American public — and reluctant Republicans — as being forced upon us because of the rise of China.

All this happens a lot quicker than you might think, especially if TrumpBarr have to fight to steal the election. The more difficult it is for them to win, or “not lose,” the more radical they will become. This is doubly so if there is any violence associated with either their coup in the courts or their final consolidation of power.

TrumpBarr will take “total control” by invoking the Insurrection Act.

Now, that’s what I think is going to happen. But there is, at least in the abstract, another possibility. I serious doubt this is going to happen because our autocratic infection has gone septic — our liberal democracy is dead and we just don’t have it in us to do what would be required to actually force #MoscowMitch to take notice.

In fact, the only thing that makes me think there is a greater than zero sum chance this other option might happen is, well, Trump is a fucking incompetent moron. Even with the help of Interior Minister Barr, it’s possible that because of the passions of the election and how the country is split pretty much 50 / 50 that, well, the suffer The Big Ugly.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario that I’ve been ranting about for months now might come true — the United States may buckle. We may have something akin to a civil war / revolution for no other reason than Trump is now a caged rat who will do anything — even destroy the country — to prevent himself from going to prison post-election.

These two options are on something of a continuum from autocracy to The Big Ugly. In the middle would be something along the lines of an extreme 2000 outcome where the center-Left knows they got screwed over, they’re peaceful and the whole issue of what happened will get throw into the memory hole along with the Iraq War.

Or, put another way, something would have to change in a rather abrupt fashion for Trump not to “not lose” via SCOTUS. I would suggest keep an eye on Trump Tower. If passions grow so bad in the country that a mob of angry New Yorker’s take Trump Tower and gut it, then, well, the Big Ugly is here. Or be prepared for several Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City type events to happen across the country by the far Right. Something, anything that would break the seal on political violence. Something along the lines of John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry.

But such events are very abstract. I’m not advocating any of that — Jesus Christ — I’m just, in an abstract fashion, giving you some sense of how you would know our inevitable march into a Russian style autocratic managed democracy might take a rather sudden left turn.

I just can’t see that happening, though. It’s over, folks. We’re an autocracy. And, in real terms, given how weak the opposition to Trump is — and how incompetent he is — it’s possible that Trump’s final consolidation will be far more gradual than I imagine. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2023 and realize we had a chance to prevent the dystopia we now live in and we blew it — in more ways than one.

Again, I’m not advocating any type of Big Ugly. That’s not my scene. I just want to finish my allegorical novel about the Trump Era and see if I can sell it. That’s all I want. Live long and prosper, folks.

Erratic Election Night 2020 Live Blogging: Well, At Least The Novel Is A Go


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The novel I’m working on is pretty much just an excuse for me to rant about the Trump Era. So, if the Trump Era continues then I still have something to rant about and angry liberals will want to read it.

So, there you go.

The only thing hampering me throwing myself into the novel tonight is, well, I’m starting to get a little drunk. But by staying true to my mantra of “Autocrats never lose” I’ve positioned myself to continue working on the novel.

Autocrats never lose.

Erratic Election Night 2020 Live Blogging — Uh Oh


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s still early in the night, but I have a bad feeling about this. Something has to change for me not to assume Trump is going to win exactly the way he won in 2016 — he wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote.

Unless there’s a coup, I’m going to tune out if that happens. As of tomorrow morning, I’m going to plunge head first into the novel. We have another four years of the Trump Era and there will be a built-in audience of angry liberals who will want to read it.

And I have to remind you that I have long believed that the Russians would never allow an asset as valuable as Trump to leave office. AND Trump rather randomly removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany. I know it’s still early, but that remains a significant fear for me right now.

What’s more the Trump Post Office gambit appears to be working as well — 300,000 votes aren’t going to be cast in swing states and the Post Office is lulzing a court order. They know they can ignore it with impunity because it matters is they help throw the election for the autocrat.

I don’t know if I’ll blog anymore tonight. I may be too depressed. If what I’ve been saying all along happens — autocrats never lose — the novel should begin to go very, very quickly as of tomorrow morning.

Why 2020 Is Not 2000


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. Polarization
    The events of 2000 could only happen when the country was both not really all that polarized, equally divided and the two parties were almost identical in their visions. In 2020, meanwhile, none of those things are the same. The country is polarized to an obscene level, we at a 60%-40% split of the electorate and one party has no agenda other than what The Dear Leader tweets that morning.
  2. Once Bitten, Twice Shy
    Things like the Brooks Brothers Riot can only work once. That was a suckerpunch. By the the time we understood what was going on, it was too late. Given the shitshow of the last four years, pretty much every non-MAGA person assumes there’s going to be not a Brooks Brother Riot but a Brooks Brothers WAR.

    The question is, given how different things are, what would be the endgame should a 2000-like situation arise? I honestly don’t know. I’m completely clueless. It could be that, as always, the bad guys win. Or, who knows. But the dead hand of history would suggest it’s over. We’re just going to have House Trump in power for between 20 to 40 years.

    It would be at that point that the equally powerful dead hand of demographics kicks in and House Trump’s reign simply becomes untenable. They will have completely run the country into the ground and turned us all in to a reflection of their “deplorables” along the way, but oh well. At least they’ll be out of power.

The Big Ugly: America As Political Powder Keg


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So it’s clear that a Federal judge in Texas is going to throw out 100,000 votes Monday morning, lulz, we can’t have Texas turning Blue, now can we? My fear is that such an event could spark significant political violence on the eve of the election, which, in turn would give Trump the excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and directly fuck with the election on election day.

That, in turn, would escalate things and before you know it, the country implodes and The Big Ugly has begun.

It could all devolve very, very quickly.

So quickly, in fact, that there could be several political 9/11s in quick succession. Before we know it, not even the U.S. Military will be spared.

As such, the Russians will have gotten what they wanted — a second American Civil War, “the worse the better.”

I guess for me, the moral of this would be for center-Left people to at least wait until after Election Day to freak the fuck out. But no one listens to me, so there you go.

I wish I could get so drunk for the next few days that I wake up after a bender on Wednesday morning but that plan never works. I always stay way too sober in such stressful situations. It happen in 2016. It’s going to happen in 2020.

Lame Duck Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Using all metrics but one, the United States is about as stable a nation as they come. We have no history of significant political violence. We generally are rather complacent, even under duress. All in all, but for one metric, we’re in pretty good shape.

But then there’s the rot associate with our political system.

Our political system has pretty much ground to a halt. Republicans have embraced minority rule. The center-Left, meanwhile, while extremely divided, has become united for the moment around Joe Biden. With truely dumb speed-confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Republicans definitely give one the impression of finally casing aside any concerns about liberal democracy.

So, under such conditions, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where even if Biden wins in a landslide, TrumpBarr simply refuses to acknowledge it. They challenge every possible aspect of it, knowing they will always win at SCOTUS. Or, they could concede defeat, only to be such massive dickheads because they don’t have any accountability that that, in itself, causes the country to implode.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump, fearing his own possible indictment after he leaves office, fires the current head of the FBI and names Rudy on an interim basis. Rudy frogwalks Biden and TrumpBarr uses it as a negotiating tactic to escape any accountability after he is physically removed from office by Federal marshalls.

I could also imagine a situation where he rather dramatically begins to saber rattle with the DPRK or Iran. Something, anything, that would give him the cover necessary to take “total control” and either not leave office or only leave office with some pretty significant concessions.

Now, as I keep saying, the about Trump is he’s so unstable that you just don’t know. You look at his past behavior — and his repeated statements in the last few days — and you very well come up with a pretty dark scenario. So dark, in fact, that not even a demostrable Biden landslide would be enough to prevent him from causing a civil war.

But is it even within the realm of possibility that an actual “civil war” would take place?

I honestly don’t know. It pretty much boils down to Trump himself. The entire fate of the United States at this point rests on Trump’s personal decision. He could very well lose and be such a monster on his way out that there’s massive political violence, which he uses to take “total control” and that’s how he stays in power.

That, in itself, would escalate the whole clusterfuck and the Russians get the Second American Civil War they want so badly. I keep thinking about any type of second civil war or second revolution and for the moment I have a lot of difficulty imagining how such worse case scenarios would occur.

But let me be clear — The Big Ugly, as I call such things — would not be “cool” it would not be “fun.” It would really, really suck. It would be a tragedy and we would all regret that it happened.

Let’s hope it doesn’t.