Tag: Trump Bit Bonkers

Our Craven Ding-Dong POTUS Faces His Final Political Test



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of different things are happening at the same time. One issue is that several different macro trends in American politics have come to a head. The rage that 38% of the electorate feels about the changing nature of American society combined with how white working class men can’t get laid has led to significant rot in the American political system.

Red State rural areas and Blue State urban areas simply have a fundamental difference of opinion about what constitutes America. MAGA and MAGA friendly people think that by definition to be conservative is to risk being “canceled” — have their life ruined — for simply being conservative. And that, is the source of a lot of the rage and willful ignorance on the part of such people.

There are a number of pretty huge problems standing in the way of MAGA getting want they apparently want right now — 4 more years of Trumplandia. The biggest obstacle to this goal, ironically enough, is Trump himself. If he struck in some autocratic fashion before the election was called — or even before the election — then he probably would have gotten away with it. There are many, many different autocratic things he could have done that would have allowed him to stay in office to varying degrees of success.

But he didn’t do any of them and now that the Electoral College has voted, it’s now much, much harder for Rudy to use his usual disinformation techniques to run slipshod over democracy since we’re now, again, in a political crisis. The reason we’re in a political crisis — even if we don’t see it for that — is only through extra-political measures can Trump stay in power.

Or, put another way, the soft coup techniques he used in the courts recently would have to be replaced by hard coup techniques of an actual autocrat. But there are a lot — a lot — of problems for Trump going forward to pull such a thing off.

Many of his followers are begging Trump to go full-autocrat and declare martial law, or what have you. But there’s an important element of this they miss — Trump can’t just do this out of the blue. If he did — no one would follow his order.

What he COULD do, is goad his followers into some sort of Reichstag Fire event which he could then, in turn, use to invoke the Insurrection Act and attempt to maybe stay in power no matter what. But, again, even then, now that the Electoral College has voted…that’s a pretty dubious strategy. Even if something happened out of the blue — like a war with Iran or the DPRK or a coordinated series of political killings or Oklahoma City type bombings — Trump’s time in office is growing to an end.

Really, it seems to me Trump has one ace up his sleeve — in a sense: he could just snap and go completely fucking bonkers and thrash around, trying to destroy the country as much as possible on his way out. There are any number of pretty insane things he could do. He could start tweeting about how Red states need to leave the Union before January 20th. He could attempt to arrest any number of people he doesn’t like as a negotiating tactic so HE doesn’t go to prison after he leaves office.

But, remember, pretty much at any moment now, some pretty lit extra-political events might happen because Trump is hoping he can win in Congress Jan. 6th because that’s a POLITICAL event.

And, yet, I’ve overestimated Trump’s actual political ability so many times over the years, that what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to drift into the Biden Era. Things will be in political neutral for about two years until the House flips and Biden is impeached for Hunter Biden’s laptop (or whatever) and there will be a lot — a lot — of surreal political discourse as suddenly our political norms snap back into place while, at the same time, Trump keeps doing what he’s always been doing an we just shrug.

Like we always do.

But there is a good chance that the weeks leading up to Jan. 20th are going to be unpredictable, unstable and extremely bumpy. How, exactly, all the plays out is anyone’s guess.

Second American Civil War: Could Trump Start It from Mar-a-Lago?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s talk that Trump will leave the White House for Christmas at Mar-a-Lago and…just never come back. This makes you wonder if he’s drifting towards stumbling into some sort of effort to destroy the United States by actively taking up arms against its government…while he’s still the government.

Can’t go to prison in NYS if it’s a foreign country.

I could see ding-dong wanting to hunker down in Mar-a-Lago because he would have a lot more ability to cause trouble there than at the White House. If he really wanted to destroy the USA — which I think he does — then once the Electors vote and his options at staying in power grow even more limited, he could go transactional on Twitter from Mar-a-Lago.

He could declare himself the president of Trumplandia — or whatever — and begin to rant that “real” America needs to leave the Union: all while still president of the USA. The more I think about it, the more this scenario makes a huge amount of sense, especially if you think that it would be done in the context of Trump both going insane and having an intense desire not to go to jail in NYS.

Can’t go to prison in NYS if NYS is no longer in the same country you are.

So, at the behest of Trump on Twitter, I could see Red States begin to leave the Union beginning between when the Electors vote and Jan. 20th. Trump would, at last, be number 1 in something — at being the worst president in US history.

But, let me be clear — to date, Trump has proven to be a very lazy opportunist. It’s a testament to what a ding-dong he is that I keep thinking up all these different ways he could fuck things up…and he doesn’t do anything. He hasn’t even, to date, fired Bill Barr.

Which, if he was some sort of autocrat, he would have done a long time ago. He might very well still do it, but every day he doesn’t Trump’s ability to fuck things up thankfully dwindles.

We’ll know soon enough, I guess. Time is running out for House Trump.

American Tribulation


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing a lot of Twitter Liberals are oblivious about is how dire things are right now. They keep pontificating about the rise of fascism in the United States as if it’s a process that hasn’t happened yet — get woke, we are a fascist state NOW.

MAGA 2020.

Or, more specifically, we WOULD be a fascist state but for what a ding-dong our autocrat is. For me, all of this is very surreal because it’s like everything is there, waiting for Trump to go full autocrat….and he’s doing nothing. I can still think of a half a dozen ways he could seize “total control” RIGHT NOW…and…yet it appears as if he’s going to let Electors vote on Monday without even trying to get the Proud Boys to scare the shit out of them — or worse.

So, we lurch close and closer to a Biden getting sworn in and about half the electorate thinking he’s illegitimate. I will note something — the moment the Texas case came out of nowhere, I knew the Dead Hand of History was doing its thing. I have repeatedly said we’ve boxed ourselves into a civil war mindset and the Texas case is a prime example of that. Someone, somewhere with the ability to hand Trump his coup stepped up to the plate for no other reason than that’s where the momentum is right now.

Uh oh.

And, yet, again, Trump hasn’t done squat in real terms to attempt to seize “total control” even though many, many MAGA cocksuckers are begging him to do just that. I can only begin to believe that either Trump is going to allow a very surreal transfer of power actually happen, he’s going to go completely insane in some way, or, in the end, he’s going to finally go transactional and willfully destroy the United States after the point when we think we’ve managed to dodge a bullet.

Trump is so unpredictable, I can’t figure out what he’s going to do. In no small measure that comes from how difficult it is to figure out his motives at this point. Is it all about fundraising? Is it all about just not going to jail in NYS? If I could pin down is actual motives, then I could figure out his next course of action.

It seems more likely than not someone, or something is going to happen in a rather dramatic fashion between now and Jan. 20th….or a little bit afterwards. Let’s say Biden’s first 100 days. If we can actually get past, say, the Ides of March 2021, then things will have claimed down enough that we can all sigh a huge sigh of relief.

I feel you.

It just doesn’t seem like history is on our side right now. Electors could still get doxed, or murdered, or whatever. Trump could still get his Reichstag Fire with the help of the Proud Boys. Or Iran or the DPRK could give him cover to try to pull a Constitutional fast one on us while we’re distracted.

Let me make this clear — as a student of history, by every metric the United States is on the cusp of a historic and shocking implosion. I’m talking France 1940 or France 1789 type of shock. That the otherwise most stable, most powerful and arguably wealthiest nation in the world turn in on itself because of, what, white men without a college degree can’t get laid, is going to be one of the biggest shocks of the last 500 years.

America, 2020.

I’m wrong all the time. Hopefully, I’ll be wrong this time, too.

So, Are We Going To Have A Civil War or Not, Trump?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that the events surrounding the Dec 11th decision on the part of SCOTUS will be seen as a turning point in American history. In a sense, we know who America’s enemies are now.

If you were involved in the failed coup of Dec 11th, then we know should things get hot which side you’re going to be on. If we were honest with ourselves — which, to date, we haven’t been — we shouldn’t seat the 126 Congressmen who supported the failed coup.

As it stands, we STILL don’t have the political willpower to do such a thing, even though that’s definitely a debate I’d like to see — I’d like to see that question go to SCOTUS, if nothing else. It would be a way of naming and shaming the coup participants in a somewhat value free manner.

One tragic thing we have to admit to ourselves is all things being equal, we’re probably hurting ourselves long-term by not slicing this particular political boil now. So, in a strictly abstract way, I would suggest that in the name of making a more perfect Union, we need to call the secessionists bluff. Draw this issue to a tipping point and let the chips fall where they may.

We may have dodged a bullet.

Blue States have bigger economies, more population in more concentration and far better educated people. None dare call it treason — the center will not hold because it can happen here, to use a few political clichés in one sentence.

And, yet, we’re not there yet. (Which is a good thing.)

It’s very possible we’re going to punt this problem down the road and the 126 Congressmen and 19 State governments will continue to be traitors from within in. They will do everything in their power to destroy the United States because they don’t see anyone but Trump as their rightful ruler. Given that I’m a man of peace and ideas, that’s a far better option that the alternative of a hot civil war.

I will note that if Trump was, in any way, an actual political genius, he would strike NOW, while he was still president to destroy the country. He would still “legally” be president and, as such, the U.S. Military would likely follow his orders — as long as they had a thin veneer of legality to them.

Once he’s out of office, any shenanigans he did would evoke the deep historical echo of the Civil War and, as such, would fit a ready media narrative for the incoming Biden Administration –roll up your sleeves, folks, we defeated secession once, we can defeat it again.

But Trump is such a ding-dong, he’s more likely to self-own in a pretty massive fashion than think up some clever way to be in power to put down the rebellion of center-Left people caused by his own doings. Or, put another way, he’s more likely to simply go insane — or start a war with the DPRK / Iran — than he is to have any sort of clear-cut path to using his existing power to stay in control of the government.

In fact, that’s probably be my biggest mistake when gaming out ding-dong’s possible actions — he’s just an empty suit. That’s it. He’s nothing more than an avatar for the rot and rage that exists in the modern American political system. He’s a very lazy opportunist.

So, I can predict he’s going to go after Electors personally…and then he doesn’t. Or any number of different things he might do to destroy the United States…when he’s just a ding-dong. An useful idiot to the Russians. He’s a value free historical figure. At least to date.

Therefore, if American finally collapses, in a sense we will do it to ourselves. Trump will just be the guy blamed for it.

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.

Our 3 Upcoming Trump Post-Election Crises


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The ironic thing is what’s going on right now is much like what happened in 2016, without, of course, the pretty good chance of a fucking civil war. At each step along the way in 2016, angry Clinton supporters deluded themselves into thinking they had a chance to stop Trump from winning.

Flash forward 4 years and holy shit. The country is split 50/50 and all Trump needs is a way to figure out how to stage a coup in such a way that MAGA people can own libs on Twitter by saying Trump won the “legal” votes. That’s it, that’s all the want. And they are doing this as if it’s totally value free and there will be no consequences.

Before I continue, some context. These three events will be happening in the context of Bill Barr using the same media narrative management techniques he used with the Mueller Report AND the very real threat that something totally unexpected happens that gives Trump his long-sought after “Reichstag Fire.” It could be an Oklahoma City type explosion in a Blue State, a shocking murder of a major political leader or a war with the DPRK or Iran. Anything to take our attention away from the election so Trump can simply never leave.

  1. Certification Crisis
    This is already happening. In theory, state legislatures have the ability to name their own elections without any regard to the will of the people. The last time this actually happened, I think, was the election of 1876. There might be a lot of practical problems to prevent this from actually happening, but Republicans are so enraged that the dear leader might actually lose, that they will be willing to move heaven and earth to get as close as possible to Trump winning as they possibly can. It’s all about building momentum and changing the media narrative. That’s it. And, of course, “owning the libs.”
  2. The Elector Intimidation Crisis
    For all their talk about “legal votes,” this may be what Republicans are really talking about. The only “legal votes” that are cast for president are those of the Electors. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Trump doxes all the Electors on Twitter and “jokes” to MAGA to “remind them of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” They are human beings, after all, and the prospect of having to join the Witness Protection Program for the rest of their life if they don’t vote for Trump might give a few of them pause for thought. Especially if a few of them have already been murdered by some deranged MAGA person. This could really happen.
  3. Trump’s January Freak Out
    If we somehow manage to get past 1 and 2, then we face the worst of all of these — it beginning to sink in to Trump that he’s actually going to leave office. He has solid month or so to snap and finally freak the fuck out. This is when he will grow extremely unpredictable as it begins to sink in that he may actually leave office and face legal jeopardy. It’s possible that the final Republican litmus test will be if they had to be physically removed from office just like the Dear Leader. So it might not be just Trump we have to remove from the White House, it could be Pompeo at State, too. (The list goes on.) Or, Trump could pardon himself, fire half the Federal government and then abscond with AF1 to Moscow or Pyongyang.

    Good luck.

#TrumpCoup: If All Else Fails, Trump Is Going To Dox Electors


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is very difficult to predict. Which, to some extent, is his secret power. You just never know if he’s going to fold in a rather unexpected, dramatic fashion, or if he’s going to do some autocratic thing. He vacillates wildly between these two things.

What I think might happen is should all his efforts to steal the election otherwise fail him, he is going after the physical human beings that make up the Electoral College. I could easily see him sulking for 24 to 48 hours if Biden won in some sort of landslide (even under the autocratic conditions Trump has established ) and then popping out on Twitter with the names and addresses of all the Democrat Electors.

MAGA-Qanon rushes to their homes and threatens their lives if they don’t vote for Trump. Trump could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy his “interim” replacement. They Electors are left out to dry on this front because of this. Trump could even use the violence that his own followers are then doing as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act.

But again, Trump is so bonker and unpredictable that I honestly don’t know which direction he’s going to go. I do, however, suspect he’s going to pardon himself. Or somehow get some assurance he won’t be charged with anything as a prerequisite for physically leaving the White House.

If he really wanted to be destructive, he could abscond from the White House on Marine One hand settle somewhere like, say, Alabama to incite a real, honest to God civil war.

The Tyranny Of Trump’s Instability


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is talks big but often folds in a dramatic, unexpected fashion. He does this all the time. And, yet, faced with the very real possibility of criminal liability should he leave office, there’s a chance he’ll destroy the United States in order to prevent that from happening.

So, you just don’t know.

What makes Trump so difficult to predict is he’s such a combination of would-be autocrat combined with incompetence and malicious showmanship that you often assume the absolute worst from him. Then, he can’t follow through. Or, put another way — it’s similar to how voters assumed they were getting the guy from The Appearance when they were just getting an empty suit.

But there is the issue of Barr. Interior Minister Bill Barr, having successfully managed the media narrative of The Mueller Report, has every reason to believe he can do the same thing with the 2020 Election. And the more difficult doing so becomes, the more radical he and Trump are likely to become.

And, yet, as I said, Trump is both so incompetence and erratic that virtually anything is possible. It could be that Trump simply salts the earth on the way out. Or he quits and gets Pence to pardon him. Or he pardons himself. There is a huge spectrum of different worse case scenarios to choose from. And all of them, given the information available, would make sense as possibly happening.

All I know is, the next three or so months are going to be just like Trump — surreal and unpredictable.

Trump Being Bonkers Is A Lulz, Until…


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, for some time now, Trump’s mental acuity has been in self-evident decline. In short, he’s slowly going bonkers. But he’s been bonkers for so long in a very publish fashion that at this point we see it as white noise.

So, what has to happen is Trump really, really, REALLY has to go bonkers for it to matter. Specifically, he has to do something that would hurt himself politically because it’s so bad that it would puncture the bubble of “I haven’t see the tweet” that currently surrounds him.

What, exactly, would that be?

Well, all I got is he starts to actually spew racist vitrol on Twitter. He starts to use the N-Word on Twitter. He starts to call AOC obscene names on Twitter. He does has to do something so batshit insane and offensive that it actually causes people to sit up and take notice.

Or, lulz, he starts a war.

I just don’t see any of that happening, though. Even as bonkers as he is, Trump would really, really be out of it if he actually did something concrete that was actually impossible to defend.

Who knows.

What Might Go Wrong For House Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me be clear that the bad guys have already won and there’s nothing we can do about it. America is now a fascist state and the sooner we start to internalize this new normal, the better. So the following is more a bit of summer daydreaming than anything else. But I like to run scenarios and, as such, I thought it might be interesting to case out the ever-so-slight weaknesses to House Trump’s consolidation of power.

Trump’s Mental State
This is a very unpredictable variable. The reason I say this is it’s too easy for people like me to simply wave my hand and say, “Oh, by that point, Trump will finally go bonkers.” But it’s also a very real possibility that Trump will simply become an American Brezhnev and never quite get so bad as to be forced to leave office. To call him a functioning adult is already an extremely charitable assessment and absolutely nothing is being done about it, so, lulz.

So, it seems to me that what might happen is as Trump gradually grows even less functioning that people like Jared and Interior Minister Bill Barr will pick up the slack. It’s my impression that they already do that, but they still have a lot of room for growth in their power behind the throne.

Really, I guess what might cause some problems for House Trump is if Trump himself is confronted with an outside event that his mind simply isn’t able to process. This has already happened with the COVID19 pademic, but he’s largely righted himself. Hence, something else would have to happen that would lay bare that Trump should no longer be in office, fuck how close we are to the election.

The only things I can think of that might trigger such an unlikely situation is either a war or Trump’s criminality fusing with his insanity in such a way that his popularity dips from 38% to something closer to 20%. But that is really something we can’t predict. It would be something extremely unexpected. So, in a sense, it’s simply a liberal fever dream to think it might happen at all. The only reason why I bring it up is, well, maybe it’s part of my personal effort to process that I now live in a fascist state?

Electoral College Shenanigans
Another possibility is something happens that causes Trump is finally snap in a demonstrable fashion. It’s possible that the very thing I see as the single biggest existential flaw in the Constitution — that we have to rely upon Electors who are human being to vote for president — might cause House Trump some problems. Humans are notoriously weird — especially when power is involved — and if Trump simply can’t process that the Electors might vote against him despite his best efforts to steal the election, he might do a very ham-handed power grab that would turn the country against him in a major way.

I used to think that might be his possible downfall, but the more I think about it, since we’re a fascist state now, Interior Minister Barr would simply pick up the slack and Trump would continue to be president. Things are really, really politically dark in the United States right now and I fear Twitter liberals are rather oblivious to how nasty things are going to get in the coming days.

Really, as I’ve said before, the only clear cut way I could see House Trump facing any accountability for the next 20 to 40 years would be Trump bungling a war with the DPRK and being personally held accountable for, say, Alabama being vaporized by a off target DPRK ICBM.

That might do the trick. Maybe.