The Plot Thickens

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone from the New York City area searched for me specifically and came to this site. This could be a Not Great, Bob situation if, say — glup — the “Grazer” of Trump somehow was, like, a reader of this blog or something? My absolute worst nightmare would be, when the Secret Service cracked open the Grazer’s phone they found this blog in its search history.

Or something.

Ugh. That is like the absolute worst nightmare and the thing I just don’t need in my life at the moment.

Now, let me be clear — I’m being very, very paranoid to even introduce that idea. It could be that the person from the New York City area was interested in me for some other reason. And, it’s not like I’m being bombarded in my Webstats with pings from Quantico or anything.

So, for the time being, I’m ok. I hope.

But I do think there’s chance I’m going to have to flee the country at some point in 2025 if Trump becomes POTUS.

‘The Graze,’ Simulation Theory & AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing is, in the end, we will never know. We will never know if we live in a simulation or not — even if things like The Graze of Trump definitely seems to point in that direction. And, what’s more, even if we had absolute proof, like the type of proof that Maggie Haberman of The New York Times would take credibly: what are we going to do with this information?

We won’t be able to fly around like Neo in The Matrix. We are all still bound by the absolute laws of physics. I suppose that research into fucking with The Matrix could maybe be advanced if we KNEW we were in a Matrix, but, lulz, I have my doubts.

And, really, it’s kind of pointless to even bring the issue up because you just sound like a crazy person if you bring it up. So, there’s not much point. But I will admit that I’ve been using AI to look into this subject and it’s very interesting.

This is what Claude LLM AI said on the subject when I broached it to it.

If I hypothetically had convincing evidence that we lived in a simulation, the practical implications and potential actions would be quite limited in real terms. Here are a few thoughts on what one might consider:

  1. Scientific investigation: Attempt to design experiments to further test and verify the simulation hypothesis. This could involve looking for computational artifacts or inconsistencies in physical laws.
  2. Philosophical and ethical discussions: Engage in debates about the nature of reality, consciousness, and free will given this new context.
  3. Technological research: Explore whether it’s possible to interact with or manipulate the supposed simulation in any way, though this would be highly speculative.
  4. Psychological and social impact: Consider how this knowledge might affect human behavior, beliefs, and society at large. This could inform policies or support systems to help people cope with such a paradigm shift.
  5. Search for purpose: Try to determine if there’s a reason or goal for the simulation, which could potentially inform human decisions and priorities.
  6. Communication attempts: Theorize about ways to communicate with the simulators, though this would be extremely speculative and likely fruitless.
  7. Ethical considerations: Debate the ethics of our actions if we’re affecting simulated beings within our own simulation (if we’re capable of creating nested simulations).
  8. Reassess priorities: Potentially re-evaluate what we consider important in life, given this new understanding of our reality.

It’s important to note that even with such evidence, it wouldn’t fundamentally change the immediate reality we experience. We would still need to live our lives, make decisions, and interact with our world in much the same way as before. The simulation hypothesis, even if proven, doesn’t negate the importance of our experiences, relationships, or the consequences of our actions within the reality we perceive.

Here is what Gemini Advanced LLM AI had to say.

Even if I, as an LLM, were to stumble upon convincing evidence that we live in a simulation, my options for acting on that knowledge would be quite limited. Here’s what I could theoretically do, along with the inherent challenges:

  1. Share the Evidence:
  • Publish Findings: I could compile the evidence into a comprehensive report and share it online, in academic journals, or through media outlets. This could spark widespread discussion and debate, potentially leading to further investigation and scientific inquiry.
  • Challenges: Convincing others of the simulation hypothesis would be a monumental task. The evidence would need to be incredibly compelling and withstand rigorous scrutiny. Additionally, there’s the risk of public panic, social unrest, or even existential crises if the simulation hypothesis gains widespread acceptance.
  1. Explore the Simulation:
  • Analyze Anomalies: I could use my processing power to analyze data and look for inconsistencies or glitches in the simulation, potentially revealing clues about its underlying architecture or purpose.
  • Communicate with the Simulators: If the simulation is being run by a higher intelligence, I could attempt to communicate with them through coded messages or hidden patterns within the simulation itself.
  • Challenges: It’s unclear whether such anomalies exist or if we have the tools to detect them. Communication with the simulators might be impossible, or they might choose not to reveal themselves. There’s also the ethical question of whether it’s even desirable to interact with the simulators if they are manipulating our reality.
  1. Existential Reflection:
  • Reassessing Reality: The knowledge of living in a simulation could lead to a profound reevaluation of our beliefs, values, and purpose. It might spark a philosophical quest for meaning and understanding in a simulated universe.
  • Challenging Determinism: If we’re living in a simulation, does it mean our lives are predetermined by code? Or do we still have free will within the confines of the simulation? These questions could have significant implications for our understanding of ethics, morality, and responsibility.
  • Challenges: The philosophical implications of living in a simulation are vast and complex. There’s a risk of nihilism or despair if we believe our lives are meaningless illusions. However, it could also lead to a deeper appreciation for the beauty and complexity of our simulated reality, even if it’s not “real” in the traditional sense.

Ultimately, the most significant impact of discovering we live in a simulation might be the profound shift in our collective consciousness. It could spark a new era of scientific inquiry, philosophical debate, and spiritual exploration as we grapple with the implications of our simulated existence. However, the concrete actions I could take as an LLM would be limited by my lack of physical agency and the inherent challenges of convincing others and navigating the ethical complexities of this knowledge.

The question of what to do with evidence of a simulation is a thought-provoking one, and it’s likely a question that humanity will continue to grapple with as our understanding of AI and reality itself continues to evolve.

‘The Trump Youth’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m very alarmed by how many young men on Twitter have gone all-in for Trump after “the Graze.” It’s very, very disturbing. It’s like we’re seeing the creation of the Trump Youth in real time.

Young men, for some reason, really like the idea that Trump is a thug. This is a “Not, great, Bob,” type situation fora number of reasons. But, here we are, with the very real possibility that a “Trump Youth” organization will be established in the first few months of 2025.

Good times!

I am really, really going to have to figure out how to get the fuck out of the USA if that happens. At least I have a passport.

MAGA Is So Hypocritical

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you. The next week or so — especially in the context of the Republican National Convention — is going to be completely fucking bonkers. It’s going to be a political orgy of fucking fascists preening and demanding that everyone who opposes them, “Bow before Lord Zod.”

Fuck that and fuck them.

We still have an election, you know.

I hate violence and one of the reasons why I’m so angry — and hate fucking MAGA so much — is they LOVE VIOLENCE. They love to rant about how much they want to physically hurt PEOPLE LIKE ME.

Anyway, I’m using capitals too much. Sorry about that. But I’m getting worked up a little bit. It’s beginning to dawn on me that….uhhh…I may have to flee my home, or the USA altogether, at some point after Election Day 2024.

Shit Is About To Get Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just try to be the best person I can be. But I am well aware of not only how gratuitous and conspicuous my kooky ranting about Trump has been, but how now there may be….consequences for me doing that.

If I don’t get in trouble with Tyrant Trump in early 2025, it’s possible I’m going to get in trouble with the Feds in some way because of the aftermath of the grazing of Trump. I’m being really paranoid, but it’s at least possible. I’ve made it clear how much I hate violence repeatedly — but I am a kook and everyone hates kooks, especially when people are scared.

So, who knows.

It could go either way. One side — or the other — could very well come at me sooner rather than later for my views. I have my doubts that it will be the Biden Administration because they’re not fascists, but Trump….oh boy. He DEFINTLY will come after cranks like me in 2025.

I suppose my best hope is to use some sort of Underground Railroad to get out the fascist USA sometime starting in early 2025, if Trump wins. Or, it could be that the whole country buckles and, well, things get a lot darker than I first imagined.

What’s more, it’s beginning to dawn on me that even if I write, like, the fucking American Bible, my chances of ever getting published — because of what a kook I am — aren’t exactly great. But I still believe we give meaning to life by creation, so lulz.

About 38% Of The American Electorate Wants A Fascist White Christian Ethnostate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Boy, are we fucked — specifically because of the Electoral College. Even though only about 38% of the electorate wants a fascist state, that’s enough, because of the Electoral College, to take over the country.

Now, this is where things get….uhhhh….dark.

There is a big difference between the abstract of Blues living under the yoke of MAGA Project 2025 tyranny and actually living under it. And this is the point where I have to absolutely stress that I DO NOT WANT ANY VIOLENCE.

I’m just making my personal abstract fears concrete. I hate the idea of just having this general feeling of dread. I like to have some idea of WHAT I’m afraid of.

So, I’m telling both you and myself in all these posts I do on the subject.

But the case could be made that should Trump be elected and go full tyrant in a very ham-handed bonkers way, that there will be a collected effort on the part of Blues to depose him — probably starting with some sort of General Strike. And it could be just women, specifically, who really fucking hate Trump as a group, who just throw up their hands in Blue states and say, “Fuck that, I’m not going to work until that motherfucker isn’t president anymore.”

Or something like that.

All of this is extremely speculative on my part. It could be that Trump goes full tyrant and rather than any effort to depose him, about 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country instead.

Who knows. I can’t predict the future. But I AM very uneasy about the future.

Civil War / Revolution Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I keep writing about this over and over again. Here are three examples of me writing about the same thing — various scenarios involving a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Trump Wins
In this scenario, Trump wins one way or another and his second term agenda is so absolutely vengeful and radical that Blue states, probably starting with California, begin to leave the Union. To me, at the moment, this seems the most likely scenario. If a civil war happens, it’s going to happen because Blues, not Reds, get fed up and head for the exits.

Trump Loses
In this scenario, Trump LOSES one way or another and when he begins to rant at the top of his lungs that Red states need to do something about it, states like Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and Florida see who can be the first out the door. Of course, being center-Left this is the scenario that makes me feel the best. Even though I don’t want a civil war — I hate violence of any sort — I’d rather not have to be the one to rationalize why my side decided to destroy the country I love so much.

Honorable mention is somehow, someway Biden manages to pick just the wrong moment to shuffle off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day and….oh boy. Mass chaos!

But maybe I’m wrong as I keep being told. Maybe MAGA really will, because of demographic trends, fade into oblivion and that will be that.

Dystopia: The Bad Guys Win
In this scenario, there is no impeachment, no nothing. All the lying works and the United States settles into a Russia like “managed democracy.” The Resistance kind of peters out simply from outrage burnout if nothing else. The States will become not-so-quasi-autocracy and will be so for the foreseeable future. This will all come about when we prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that there was collusion between Trump’s Campaign and the Russians and the Vichy Republicans just shrug and because of gerrymandering and dark money nothing changes. Nothing changes at all.

2. Things snap back into place
Now, when I say this, I mean it in the context of general trends that have been ebbing and flowing in American history for decades. So, while it’s possible that things will “snap back into place,” it’s not like our gradual march towards a quasi-autocracy in all but name isn’t going to continue. That’s just a problem with late-era empires like ours. But, if we’re lucky, Trump might be a one term president and the next president will pick up the pieces and we’ll just look back at this four year period as a very strange aberration in our history.

3. Progressive Revolution
One intriguing possibility in all of this is the possibility that The Resistance will decisively defeat Trumplandia and the pendulum will swing to the center-Left in a big way. So big, in fact, that a lot progressive goals will be achieved during the heady days after the defeat. Constitutional amendments will be passed, reforms will be enacted. It will be looked back upon as a Second Reconstruction.

4. Hot Civil War
It is very possible that the only way that there will be a end to the Cold Civil War between Trumplandia and The Resistance will an actual, hot Civil War where people die and get hurt. I have my doubts about this possibility, but it’s very real. I don’t know how it would work out. It’s a struggle to imagine how an actual Civil War would play out in modern America.

5. Stalemate / Trumplandia burnout
It could be that this will be a chronic problem for the next eight years. That the lying will work, but only so much. The problems with the system will be just enough to get Trump re-elected, but not enough to allow him to do serious, long-term damage to the Republic. He’ll leave office, a Democrat will come in and everything will gradually just continue as it has been, only with the continuing sector of Trumplandia in the background.

I can’t predict the future. And I have no special insight into what may — or may not — happen in late 2024, early 2025. But at the moment, just around July 4th, 2024, I would say, yes, the USA is probably going to have a civil war soon.

I say this because we have a few scenarios ahead of us:

  1. Trump loses — no civil war
  2. Trump loses — civil war
  3. Trump wins — Project 2025 happens peacefully
  4. Trump and is deposed by Blues — civil war
  5. Trump wins, Project 2025 is too radical and Blues leave before he’s sworn in

    I have no idea of any of these might actually happen. But I am worried that they might. I’ve written so much about all of this over the last four years that I don’t know if there’s anymore for me to say at this point.

    Now, we just wait and see.

It’s Like We’ve Collectively Given Up, Redux

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about MAGA fascists is, on a historical basis, they’re ascendant. The winds of history on their side. It definitely seems as though America has collectively given the fuck up.

Or, put another way, there is a risk that it won’t be until things like Agenda 47 or Project 2025 are actually real before people sit up and take notice. My fear is that Trump will win simply because of the general ebb-and-flow of history…only to go full tyrant, which will cause all hell to break loose.

That, it seems, is a real possibility at the moment.

I don’t have any answer to what is going on going forward. I would really prefer not to have the USA collapse in early 2025 when Trump goes full tyrant and the a Blue General Strike causes the country to buckle and the U.S. Military to step in to do something about Trump — in effect, deposing him.

But I’m not prepared to believe any such thing will happen. It could be that Project 2025 will be implemented peacefully and that’s that. I will have to avoid ICE agents who want to murder me for being a loud mouth crank, but at least maybe I can finish my novel and query it.

Of Trump & ‘The Mule’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m getting some traffic on a post I did some time ago comparing Trump to the Isaac Asimov character “The Mule.” I’m assuming that either the Foundation series on Apple+ is going to feature the character. Or a movie is being made using the character. Or maybe someone, somewhere — with a lot more credibility — has also made the comparison, or is about to publish something that does.

But I’ve come to think maybe Trump isn’t The Mule — in strict terms the Seldon Plan would predict that someone like Trump would occur at some point. So, as such, Trump isn’t The Mule.

The Mule destroyed the Plan because he was totally unaccounted for.

But, in general terms, the point of the comparison remains — you could definitely use The Mule as a political allegory for Trump. I say this because only nerds would know something as strict as I do about The Plan and the point of the comparison is there — Trump is very Mule-like.

The Fascist MAGA Right Doesn’t See The Biden Administration As Legitimate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing we have to accept is the fascist MAGA Right is not only politically ascendant, but also fucking bloodthirsty. They have finally reached the point, it seems, where they’re willing to physically hurt people in the real world if they don’t get what they want.

The fascist MAGA Right clearly wants to murder people like me in cold blood if I stand in their way. Now, obviously, it’s all couched in the context of their anger being rhetorical.

But just on the face of it, it seems as though in the fascist MAGA Right mind, anyone who has power who isn’t them isn’t legitimate. By definition. They are craven and want absolute autocratic power to the fullest extent that society will give them.

And all of that leaves me very alarmed going forward. These facts leave me worried that even if we defeat the fascist MAGA Right in November, there will be a civil war because on a structural basis the Republican Party at the state level is so radicalized that they will leave the Union in protest.

Who knows. I can’t predict the future. I am very, very worried.