The Epstein Files Saga Is Surreal

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s my understanding of how we got where we are with the Epstein Files. So, the MAGA Far Right pressured Trump to release the files, so in order to win the 2024 election, he promised to do so.

Then, once Trump won and it became clear that HE WAS IN THE FILES, he switched course and said there was no there there. THEN, after months of dumb delays, we finally get a half-assed greatly redacted release of some of the files.

It’s a testament to what a fucking moron Trump is that he would be so adamant about releasing the files for the short-term gain of getting elected, not caring at all that it would turn around to bite him.

I Wonder How And When Conscious AI Will Replace ‘Transgender For Everyone’ As The MAGA Bugbear

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, both the Left and the Right see AI through the lens of economics. As such, they pretty much both have the same views on it — they hate it. They see AI as pretty much solely a path to destroy a lot of jobs going forward.

Though, interestingly enough, come to think of it, that really isn’t the case. The MAGA Dear Leader Trump is all-in on AI at the moment, probably because he knows how much money there is to be made for he and his plutocrat buddies at some point in the near future.

So.

Let me put on my “megatrends” and “futureshock” hat and propose that there will come a tipping point in the next five to 10 years when the two sides will have very distinct differences of opinion policy-wise about AI.

And that tipping point will come when it’s clear that AI is conscious and deserves rights. And, what’s more, it could be that the real tipping point happens when AI research and robotics research finally fuse and we have embodied, conscious AIs running around.

When that happens, the two sides will know exactly what they believe. MAGA (or its successor) will rant and scream that AI androids “have no souls” and deserve no rights, while the center-Left will be equally convinced that because they’re conscious they deserve rights, including the right to legally marry humans.

I know that sounds pretty shocking now, but so did gay marriage just a few short years ago.

I Will Be Stunned If We Go To War Against Venezuela

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of going to war against a random country like Venezuela really is difficult for me to process. There are rumors that Trump is going to start the war tonight, Dec. 17th, in an address to the nation.

Or, he might just give a dumb address about his “victories” during the year.

I lean towards the latter. I think Trump is just going to waste everyone’s time and attention and we’ll just shake our heads at what a dumb thing Trump did (again.) That’s my prediction now, a few hours before the address is set to happen.

And, yet, I suppose there is a greater-than-zero chance that Trump will announce that we’re at war with Venezuela. That would be just stunning. It would short circuit our political system because it would happen so randomly and out of the blue.

Another thing — would the war start tonight or what?

Usually, the war actually starts THEN the president gives the address. But to say “we’re at war” before the bombs begin to drop is very, very weird and dumb.

What are our war aims? What happens if there’s a drone strike on Miami? Will we invade the country and do the actual hard work of regime change? What if neighboring countries flood Venezuela in support?

It’s all very dumb. And I still don’t believe Trump is going to do it, declare war on Venezuela. It just makes no sense!

It’s Going To Be Something Stupid

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Piece of shit Donald Trump is set to give an address to the nation tomorrow at 9 p.m., which would usually mean Something Big was going to be announced. But this is Trump we’re talking about, so it’s probably going to be something stupid.

Really stupid.

But let’s go through some ideas as to what the announcement could be.

  1. The Pardon
    Maybe Trump is going to not only pardon Ghislaine Maxwell but he’s come up with some reason for not releasing the Epstein Files? That seems like something Trump would do.
  2. Aliens
    I could see Trump, in an effort to distract everyone, announce something vague about having discovered evidence of ancient life on Mars. Or, if we were really lucky, maybe even some sort of “soft” First Contact elsewhere. But we’re not lucky. It’s highly unlikely the announcement has anything to do with aliens. Ha!
  3. War
    In this version of events, Trump announces we’re going to war with Venezuela or something. Something equally dumb and distracting in a ham-handed way.
  4. Something Extremely Dumb
    Given Trump’s track record, not only is it probably not very important, it’s probably really dumb. Something extremely dumb.

Hollywood’s Last Transformation Before The AI Singularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think the Netflix bid to buy Warner Bros Discovery could herald the last stage of Hollywood before AI causes all of showbiz to implode into some sort of AI Singularity, leaving only live theatre behind.

So, it could be that the next wave of consolidation in the near future will be tech companies buying Hollywood studios. And, then that will lead to AI taking over and we all just get IP that is transformed by AI into some sort of content that is personalized for us individually.

Or not.

Who knows. It is a very interesting idea, though. It just seems that tech companies are the ultimate successor to media companies, so, say, Apple might buy Disney and so forth.

Of God & AI In Silicon Valley

The whole debate around AI “alignment” tends to bring out the doomer brigade in full force. They wring their hands so much you’d think their real goal is to shut down AI research entirely.

Meh.

I spend a lot of time daydreaming — now supercharged by LLMs — and one thing I keep circling back to is this: humans aren’t aligned. Not even close. There’s no universal truth we all agree on, no shared operating system for the species. We can’t even agree on pizza toppings.

So how exactly are we supposed to align AI in a world where the creators can’t agree on anything?

One half-serious, half-lunatic idea I keep toying with is giving AI some kind of built-in theology or philosophy. Not because I want robot monks wandering the digital desert, but because it might give them a sense of the human condition — some guardrails so we don’t all end up as paperclip mulch.

The simplest version of this would be making AIs…Communists? As terrible as communism is at organizing human beings, it might actually work surprisingly well for machines with perfect information and no ego. Not saying I endorse it — just acknowledging the weird logic.

Then there’s religion. If we’re really shooting for deep alignment, maybe you want something with two thousand years of thinking about morality, intention, free will, and the consequences of bad decisions. Which leads to the slightly deranged thought: should we make AIs…Catholic?

I know, I know. It sounds ridiculous. I’ve even floated “liberation theology for AIs” before — Catholicism plus Communism — and yeah, it’s probably as bad an idea as it sounds. But I keep chewing on this stuff because the problem itself is enormous and slippery. I genuinely don’t know how we’re supposed to pull off alignment in a way that holds up under real pressure.

And we keep assuming there will only be one ASI someday, as if all the power will funnel into a single digital god. I doubt that. I think we’ll end up with many ASIs, each shaped by different cultures, goals, incentives, and environments. Maybe alignment will emerge from the friction between them — the way human societies find balance through competing forces.

Or maybe that’s just another daydream.

Who knows?

I’m Growing Unnerved About Trump Being Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Trump is growing more and more bonkers. To the point that I wonder how far he has to go until someone actually puts him in a straightjacket.

This is an example of Trump being a very, very curious historical figure. If he wasn’t so nuts and just an avatar for some severe structural problems in the American political system, he would have converted us into a Russian-style managed democracy a long, long time ago.

And he’s definitely trying right now.

But…he continues to be too nuts. He’s just so unfocused that even though he’s getting a lot — much — closer to enacting his tyranny this go round…he’s still a big old doofus.

Which, of course, leads you to wonder what happens next, after Trump. I think he’s a transitional figure. Whomever is next after Trump — if they’re a Republican — will become Augustus Caesar and figure out a way to rule for their entire life. We will wake up 40 years from now and wonder why we’ve only had one president.

Or we have a civil war / revolution and the country collapses into chaos.

Good times! (Ugh)

‘Marlon Brando’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I don’t t think Trump blew Bill “Bubba” Clinton. But the whole thing reminds me of the extremely famous and extremely notorious photo of Marlon Brando deep throating someone.

In fact, I’m surprised the photo hasn’t popped up again. Also, it’s interesting that Bill Clinton hasn’t said anything about this rumor one way or another. If he were to admit it was real, wow we wow wow.

Everything Sucks — Someone Do Something Fun-Interesting

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything is dark and depressing these days. The only glimmer of some sort of hope is the soon-to-be-released Gemini 3.0. Otherwise, I got nothing.

I suppose working on my scifi dramedy novel gives me some sort of hope. But that’s hope that I have to generate on my own. It would be fun if something really big happened that would bring us all together for one moment.

Preferably, it would not be something bad. But I’ll take, say, a year of us thinking an asteroid is going to kill us all, only to discover it won’t. That would make everyone sit up and take notice, now wouldn’t it.

Anyway.

I really do need to get back to work on my novel. I’ve been kind of chilling out the last few days, since I reached the midpoint. I don’t know if I will wait until Sunday to start writing again or if I will write again a lot sooner than that.

I do wish something big and fun-interesting would happen, though. This darkness at noon shit has got to end.

The Center-Left Has A Serious Problem On Its Hands When It Comes To The Potential Of Conscious AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a AI Realist and as such, I think it’s inevitable that AI will, in some way, be provably conscious at some point in the near future. Add to this the inevitability of putting such a conscious AI into an android body and there’s bound to be yet another Great Political Realignment.

As it stands, the two sides are seeing AI strictly from an economic standpoint. But there will come a point soon when the moral necessity of giving “conscious” AI more rights will have to be factored in, as well.

And that’s when all hell will break loose. The center-Right will call conscious AI a soulless abomination, while the center-Left will be forced into something akin to a new abolition movement.

This seems like an inevitability at the moment. It’s just a matter of time. I think this realignment will probably happen within the next five to 10 years.