America In Brown & Red



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I know way too many fucking fascists in real life. I, personally, have come to accept that not only has fascism taken over the country I love, but that Trump is going to brazenly steal the 2020 Election. What’s more, about 38% of the electorate is going to embrace this theft rather willingly.

There a number of significant macro trends that make all this possible and they all express themselves in the guise of one Donald John Trump. He’s an avatar for some pretty intractable problems in the United State’s body politic. What bothers me is a lot of Twitter liberals who should know better are deluding themselves about what’s going on.

These Twitter liberals are so busy scoring points on social media with memes they think will “destroy” House Trump, that they are totally oblivious to what’s going on in the real world. Many, many people are too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to “have time for politics” and, as such, they have only a vague awareness of what’s going on. All they know is, on an abstract level, Trump is protecting them from violent progressives (Communists) who want to “destroy the sanctity of marriage” and burn Federal court houses.

What’s more, their abstract fears about what these evil liberal progressives (Communists) MIGHT do are so all consuming that they honestly don’t care about the very real fascist things House Trump is actually doing right now. And so when House Trump inevitably indicts Joe Biden in late October as part of the bogus Durham Investigation, they’ll lulz it. And if they do ever get around to figuring out the whole thing was done to steal the election, it’ll be so long after the fact as to be politically pointless.

Then these very same people will simply shrug and tell people like me to “shut up if you know what’s good for you.” These Good Germans will get upset when people protest (if they do) when Trump steals the fall election in an extremely brazen fashion.

As I’ve mentioned before, what Trump wants to do is throw so much interference at the 2020 Election that we will struggle to pinpoint what, exactly what the thing that did it. That’s what he wants. He doesn’t want to do anything so absolutely brazen that American’s self-perception kicks in an people realize what he’s up to.

And, yet, with things like the Durham Investigation, he’s setting himself up to do just that. The whole thing is fucking bullshit and when Durham indicts (or whatever) Biden in late October the whole thing is going to be a little bit too on the nose for a lot of people. And, yet, there is such absolute bloodlust for just that on the part of the entire Republican Party that the whole thing may get out of control.

Not that indicting Biden isn’t going to work — it obviously will. And, generally, most people are just going to take the indictment at face value and Trump will cruise to victory. But there’s at least a greater than zero chance that people who otherwise might not care might sit up and take notice. It’s possible, not probable.

Remember those macro trends. The problems that caused Trump in the first place aren’t going anywhere. So, even if somehow we magically are able to frog walk Trump out of the White House at some point, he’s going to be seen as a political martyr by the Right. They are going to do everything in their power to bring down the Biden Administration as soon as possible.

There are no easy answers to this problem. The reason is — if Twitter liberals finally stopped trying to score points on Twitter and took the actions necessary in real fucking life to actually halt the ascent of fascism in the United States there will be blood, as they say.

Republicans have already crossed the Rubicon into fascism — they’re ready to make the jump from insane rhetoric on FOX News to murdering people in cold blood for political reasons. Should the center-Left get woke to this cold hard fact, well, I guess we’re going to have a civil war.

But I’m reluctant to say that.

The center-Left in the Untied States is so fucking weak that what’s more likely to happen is simply the bad guys will win and after the shock of Trump brazenly stealing the election wears off, we’re going to get used to people getting pushed out of windows.

That’s probably going to be the last stage in our transformation to a “managed democracy” like Russia in the sense that Trump will have to purge the media first to get away with it. Can’t very well make people mad by pushing people out windows if no body knows about it because OANN now owns CNN, now can you?

If Russia is any indication, what will happen is pop culture in the Unites States will decouple completely from politics. Only people like me will scream at the top of our lungs as to what’s going on (and get pushed out a window for doing it.) The average person might take note that suddenly CNN and FOX news are indistinguishable, but that’s about it.

Because of macro trends, this is the future of America. There might be the occasional hiccup because Trump is such a fucking incompetent, moronic self-own artist, but the general we have to wait until the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America before any of this changes. And, given that the entire point of MAGA is to STOP the Browning of America, lulz, maybe it will never happen.

I don’t have any answers as to how to prevent any of this. I would, however, suggest that we’re now in the part of America’s transition to a fascist state where you what you do in real life matters. Scoring points, or thinking up a powerful meme doesn’t mean shit when Little Green Men are snatching people off the street or, later, pushing people out windows.

I used to think Americans weren’t Russians and, by definition, would not allow a fascist, autocratic “managed democracy” to happen here. But I realize now I was being naive. It can –and will — happen here.

Phone Polling Adventures


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


As we lurch towards Trump finalizing his fascist consolidation of power in the United States, I find myself becoming a sucker for political phone polls. Something about this small — but important — aspect of recently bygone era when what the population of the country actually thought is appealing.

One thing I’ve noticed is most of the polls I’m getting are obviously from Republicans. All of the polls I’ve taken recently were pretty fucking warped. They don’t seem like polls at all, but rather being used as a focus group for Republican oppo research.

But none of it matters.

The Durham Investigation is going to indict Biden in late October. If that doesn’t work, the slowing of the mail will. And if THAT doesn’t work, the Russians will live up to their part of the bargain associated with Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany and hack directly into our election systems.

As I keep saying, we really, really need to accept that the United States is now a fascist state. The whole snatching people off the street will soon enough be pushing people out of windows.

There is no hope.

Fascist America: Everyone Needs To Do A Gut Check



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


The fascists have won. I say that because Trump is assembling about a dozen different ways he’s going to steal the 2020 Election. If it’s not the Durham Investigation indicting Joe Biden the weekend before the election, it’ll be the post office essentially becoming an arm of the Trump Campaign. And those are just the most obvious ones. There will not be a free and fair election.

And, even if somehow Trump manages to self-own to such an extent that Biden actually does manage to be win the electoral vote, Trump is going to challenge the certification of the popular vote at ever stage. In the end, his criminality and his insanity will fuse and, well, lulz, he’s not going anywhere.

So, with that in mind, if you’re not MAGA, you need to do a gut check as to what you believe. It is very, very easy to write a witty tweet that goes viral. But it’s going to be a lot different when ICE starts snatching people off the street or pushing people out windows in the real world.

What do you believe on an existential level? Are you really willing to face indefinite incarceration in an ICE camp or the risk of simply being pushed out a window for your opposition to Trump’s fascist tyranny? Nearly everyone can talk a good talk on social media, but when you’re shoved into an unmarked van by a member of PACT or ICE, you might simply turn into a quivering mess.

There’s going to come a moment very, very soon — probably in 2021 — when we’re going to find out who is willing to pledge their “lives and scared honor” for the America that existed for about 240 years before Trump. While a few bonkers people like me, with nothing to lose, will take a stand and tell Trump’s goons to fuck off — and be murdered accordingly — most people are going to take the advice of MAGA people who will tell them, “If you know what’s good for you, you’ll shut up.”

I don’t have any easy answers for you. I can’t tell you in practical terms what to do or how to prevent the inevitable from happening. I hate violence and I hate guns. Usually, it takes a war of some sort to end a fascist regime. There’s no one to invade us. I mean, who’s going to do it? The EU?

All I can tell you is the final official transformation of the United States into a fascist state is going to happen in fits and starts and then EXTREMELY RAPIDLY. Get out of the country if you can. Start thinking about where you might hide.

But the issue is — ranting on social media about Trump simply isn’t going to cut it anymore. You’re going to have to think about your career, your life and your family in the real world. Fascism is the ultimate “cancel culture,” if you will.

Darkness has fallen. There’s no going back. If it’s not Trump who does it, it’ll be Mike Pomepo or Tom Cotton. The macro trends simply aren’t on our side. And while there may be rolling political violence this fall and winter, I just don’t see there being any type of organized civil war. Though, I would note the only way we’re ever, EVER getting rid of Trump is the country will have to be on the verge of a revolution. That’s the only way I can think of that the political fault lines might shift just long enough to physically frog walk Trump out of the Oval Office.

Even then, this would be only a brief reprieve. Trump would immediately become a political martyr in the eyes of MAGA and he’ll find some fascist ghost writer to write his own “Mien Kampf.”

We’ve reached the end of the United States as we’ve known it.

Of The Coming Constitutional Convention



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Again, form follows function. Trump calls his good buddy Putin about once every two weeks these days, so it’s safe to say that if the bullshit Durham Investigation doesn’t help Trump steal the 2020 Election, the Russians will.

We therefore have to accept that it’s an absolute fact of life that Trump is going to “win” re-election by stealing it in a rather dramatic fashion. There will be a lot of angry tweets by the so-called “Resistance” but not a lot is going to happen where it actually matters — real life.

For months, twitter “thought leaders” will fight over what, exactly, allowed Trump to win. While all that’s happening, of course, Trump is going to start ranting about how big the budget deficit is and how we ABSOLUTELY have to call a Constitutional Convention to solve that problem.

We will then go through what is now the routine. At first, Trump will tweet about it and everyone will be shocked. Republicans will universally say Trump’s just joking and we’ve all fallen for his “master troll.” There will be a lot of talk about how people like me are being hysterical, as usual and that “Orange Man Bad” is all I have to contribute to the conversation. Then, of course, Trump will make it absolutely clear that he’s very, very serious about this proposal.

This will lead to a lot of ever-so-serious discussion about the need to balance the budget and how the only way to enact this long-needed addition to the Constitution is via a Constitutional Convention. The Fox News propaganda machine will be all in. While Twitter Liberals gnash their teeth about what a bad idea a Constitutional Convention would be, Fox New’s will articulate a very simple case for why it’s needed.

The momentum will begin to build in the mainstream press. Soon, there will be talk of the possible liberal benefits of such a Convention. Who knows, maybe the ERA will be passed! There will be a pitched battle for much of 2021 as to if this is a good idea or not. Maggie Haberman will coo about what a brilliant political mind Trump is.

Ultimately, of course, we’ll get the 5(?) state legislatures we need to have it called up. As I understand it, precedent would suggest that delegates to this Convention will be surprise! picked by state legislatures which are overwhelmingly MAGA Republicans.

The moment the convention assembles, it goes rouge. Some of that might be from Trump ranting at it everyday on Twitter and some of it may be just Republicans, by definition, hate liberal democracy. When the process is completed a slew of American Enabling Acts are drawn up. Birthright citizenship will be eliminated. Trump will be able to run for as many terms as he likes. Hell, maybe they’ll figure out a way that Trump can simply rule by decree because, lulz, nothing matters.

After a lot of debate, 3/4’s of the State legislatures pass these American Enabling Acts and House Trump’s power is codified into law.

That’s it. That’s our future.

Let’s Talk About The Election Of 1988



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It seems as though a lot of people are comparing the lead that Michael Dikukus had after the 1988 Democratic Convention with the lead that Joe Biden currently enjoys.

I was not very old at the time, but I was politically aware to know that the bump Dikukus enjoyed in late July and early August was an anomaly. Reagan was a historically popular president and Bush was seen as his third term. Dikukus was about as exciting as drying paint.

No one seriously thought he was going to win.

So, 2020 and 1988 aren’t anything like each other. Trump is going to win, of course, because he’s a fucking fascist and fascists always win in the context of a dying democracy. In real terms, Trump’s fate is one person’s hands — his own. The issue is will Trump self-own to such an extent that he loses, or will he hold it together long enough to lurch into a stolen second term?

It’s stuff like that that you simply can’t predict.

But the point is — because Trump is a very incompetent fascist everything is up in the air that literally anything is possible.

John Bolton’s Triangulation



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It seems as though John Bolton did not testify against Trump when fate gave him the opportunity because, well, he hates liberals more than he thinks Trump should be removed from office.

So, in his estimation, any buck he earns from his “tell all” book on his time as part of the Trump Administration is a buck well earned (especially if it comes from liberals.) Now that, lulz, Trump is free to destroy everything, if there is a post-Trump Era, then, in Bolton’s estimation, everything will to some extent snap back into place and he can go back to “normal.” Bolton wants to triagulate liberals and conservatives in such a way that both of them hate-love him equally. This allows him to cruise back his regular roll on FOX News when the opportunity comes.

But that’s a huge amount of wishful thinking.

Trump has already likely hatched a quid pro quo with the Russians so they will hack direction into our election systems in the fall (Trump is removing about 1/3 of our forces from Germany) and, as such, lulz. Mysteriously, the polls will again be way, way, WAY off it will be some point in Barron Trump’s administration that we discover the Russians have been gleefully hacking into our election systems for decades with the direct help of House Trump.

But by that point, it will be the greatest, “Lulz, nothing matters” of all time.

Anyway, I’m going to be shocked if Bolton’s book comes out at all (or at least anytime before Trump crowns himself God Emperor of Trumplandia.

Of Brad Parscale


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ahhh, Brad Parscle.

The thing about ole Brad is he dresses like a dandy, but has the facial hair of a Hell’s Angel. It’s that quality of him that’s so off-putting. You can’t wrap your mind around what your seeing.

He’s a huge fucking grifter, too.

But that’s not to say he’s not great at his job — he is. He’s pretty much the brains behind the malignant tumor that is the Trump campaign. Anyway, he’s make a huge amount of money off of Trump.

Parscle is obviously smart enough, driven enough and good enough at his job that Trump is probably going to win. Though, I can’t help but continue to think about how Trump is removing one third of the US troops in Germany by September. Definitely sounds as though he’s doing that in exchange for Putin hacking directly into our election systems.

And, yet, I will be the first to admit that I can’t predict the future. Who knows what’s going to happen tonight, tomorrow or a month from now.

Some Trump Scenarios For The Next Year



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


No one can predict the future. So take that into consideration. But here are some scenarios as to what might happen between now and about a year from now.

Massacre
This is one of the more acute endgames for the clusterfuck that is the Trump Ministration. In this scenario, Trump finally gets his own Tienanmen Square on the National Mall. The bloodshed is enough that he’s quickly forced from office well before Election Day. I don’t really see this happening for a number of reasons. Or, put another way, there might be a massacre, but Trump still won’t leave office.

Rolling Political & Racial Violence
In this scenario, the rolling political violence I have long predicted for the fall simply happens as part of the rolling protests we’re having right now. The two merge as the year progresses and there’s massive violence on Election Day. America has its own “Troubles” until sometime in April-May 2021 when we finally figure out how to pull the now completely insane Trump physically out of the Oval Office

Trump Self-Owns By Going Crazy
There’s a real chance that Trump’s criminality and his lurching insanity will fuse to such an extent that he’ll take the whole country down with him. By the time his enables finally get with the program, it will be far, far too late to save the country and something akin to either an autocratic managed-democracy or a civil war happens. It all happens because no one is willing to stick their neck out in the real world to stop it.

Startup Saves The Day
In this scenario, someone figures out a way to organize the protests happening right now via an app. It would be designed to find leaders and to coordinate these protests in a meaningful manner. This is really me daydreaming because no one ever listens to me.

The Elector Crisis
Trump loses the popular vote, but goes after Electors on a personal level until they vote for him. Or there’s a 1876-type commission because Trump claims a huge amount of voter fraud and SCOTUS believes him. This all ends up with a massive clusterfuck and we either endup with an acting president or knowing way, way more about the personalities and personal lives of individual Electors than we should.

Bides 100 Days
Bides first 100 days — should they happen — may simply be him struggle to keep the country together as Trump rants on Twitter about how MAGA has to kill people to protect their 2nd Amendment rights.

Trump’s Most Dangerous Game



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


While Trump is an absolute moron, he is getting advice from someone who isn’t: Putin. So, it has occurred to me there’s a reason why Trump is shipping in Texas prison riot police to DC — he really wants to murder peaceful protesters in cold blood.

It not too much of a stretch to imagine the following: the goons from Texas serve as the Hell’s Angels at Altamont and there’s violence. Enough violence that the entire nation is shocked. This leads to direct combat(!) between the goons from Texas and the US Military.

The America Putin Wants.

The final battle is joined as everyone picks sides.

How exactly that would go down is anyone’s guess. I do think this would be the rolling political violence of the fall I have long predicted, just a few months early and in a different context. Now, there are a number of scenarios you could imagine at this point.

One is Trump really misjudges the whole situation and he is effectively forced from office in a rushed impeachment process at gunpoint on the part of the U.S. Military. But, given how things are likely to actually happen, it’s possible it could get even messier. It would happen very, very fast.

It would be total chaos (which is what Trump’s bestie Putin wants.)

And, really, I would say Trump would win, as always, but for how moronic and incompetent he is. He’s such a self-own artist that when faced with an unprecedented extra-political, extra-Constitutional attempt to remove him from office, he simply won’t know what to do.

A Very American Coup



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Not once in our nation’s history have we ever had a coup in the traditional sense. So, it’s rather surreal to me that I find myself thinking how a coup might happen now.

If any military coup happened, it would be so chaotic in nature that it’s impossible to predict exactly how it might happen. But my best guess is Trump finally gets the massacre of peaceful protesters in DC that he’s so excited about and the military does something completely out of the ordinary for it on a historic and institutional level — it turns on its commander-in-chief.

Given the nature of American political tradition, the only way I could possibly imagine this happening would be the top military leaders contact Nancy Pelosi and tell her in no uncertain terms that the House has to do a snap impeachment of Trump….NOW.

Then, using the same hint-hint methods, the military gets the Senate to do a snap trial and conviction of Trump. This would be the only way for everyone not to feel dirty about what had just happened. Of course, this could all be a setup. Trump could be trying to consolidate power in the military by pushing it to the breaking point, then hoping there would be some sort of coup attempt so he could purge those people. (This happened in Turkey a few years ago.)

All of this is meaningless, of course, because Tom Cotton is likely to be elected president in 2024, no matter what because of the same macro issues that elected Trump in the first place.

Lulz!