The key thing we have to accept is the fascist MAGA Right is not only politically ascendant, but also fucking bloodthirsty. They have finally reached the point, it seems, where they’re willing to physically hurt people in the real world if they don’t get what they want.
The fascist MAGA Right clearly wants to murder people like me in cold blood if I stand in their way. Now, obviously, it’s all couched in the context of their anger being rhetorical.
But just on the face of it, it seems as though in the fascist MAGA Right mind, anyone who has power who isn’t them isn’t legitimate. By definition. They are craven and want absolute autocratic power to the fullest extent that society will give them.
And all of that leaves me very alarmed going forward. These facts leave me worried that even if we defeat the fascist MAGA Right in November, there will be a civil war because on a structural basis the Republican Party at the state level is so radicalized that they will leave the Union in protest.
Who knows. I can’t predict the future. I am very, very worried.
The thing about Trump is he is, on a personal basis, a very weak malignant ding-dong. He continues to prove day after day that he’s an idiot who is just an avatar who rides the wave of history, rather than bend it to his will. The *idea* of Trump, however, is very, very powerful.
As such, Trump is very dangerous on a political and historical way, but he as a person is so lazy and dumb that he could very well bring the country to its knees if he’s re-elected because of what he represents to the people surrounding him. That’s why even though Trump is a idiot and lazy, the forces around him are smart enough to generate ideas like Agenda 47 and Project 2025.
So, the thing is — Trump is an embarrassing idiot, but a very dangerous embarrassing idiot. Too often, we conflate Trump the man with Trump the political idea. I still continue to worry that Trump in his stupidity could destroy America because he will thrash around in his tyranny in a way that the American people won’t be able to stand.
That, at least, is the nightmare.
If anyone else was in Trump’s position, they would be able to peacefully guide the United States into a Russian-style white Christian ethnostate autocracy. That’s my real nightmare at this point — that Trump will literally snatch people off the street in 2025 and that will lead to America being pushed beyond its political limits and some pretty fucking weird things will happen.
What that might be, I don’t know — and I’m not advocating anything.
But I still have some hope that it’s possible that Biden will win and we’ll punt all of these structural problems down the road for another four years. (I’m still worried that no matter what happens with the 2024 election we will face severe political violence, but that’s just me being paranoid.)
Things are looking pretty dark if Trump wins a second term late this year. We have to accept that MAGA is National Socialism. In general, I think if Trump wins in the fall we’ll slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy — but for one thing: Trump is a lazy idiot.
As such, any other Republican in his position would be able to slowly — and peacefully — transition the country into a full blown autocratic state without much fuss. And, yet, Trump is SO stupid and SO lazy and SUCH a fucking ding-dong that there’s a good chance he will thrash around in 2025 to the point that Something Happens.
What that “something” might be, I don’t know.
There are a wide-range of different “things” that might happen if Trump not only goes full tyrant but thrashes around to the point that even Traditionalists sit up and take notice. It seems to me that, at a minimum, about 1 million smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country the moment it’s clear Trump has won re-election.
Meanwhile, once he’s actually in office, if the House is Democratic, he could very well be impeached almost immediately for, well, being a tyrant. I used to think we might see a General or Women’s Strike at that point in a collective effort to persuade the Senate to convict…but….I dunno. I think our best bet would be that the U.S. Military might depose Trump using the 14th Amendment as cover.
Not that I want that to happen. Not only do I hate violence, but if Trump was deposed, that would cause Red States to leave the Union and civil war would break out. Ugh.
So. I don’t know. I really don’t know what the fuck will happen if Trump is re-elected. I do believe, however, that late 2024, early 2025 could be something akin to “The Fourth Turning” in the sense that it will be a massive fucking clusterfuck.
Trump Loses — gives up It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame) If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
The 1872 Election Endgame Look it up. It’s bad
Oh boy. Now that it is clear to me that Trump is so fucking stupid that he wants he thinks he can get away with imposing an actual military dictatorship on the United States…yikes.
It would take a next level amount of stupidity on his part to try to do such a thing. But here we are, with the idea that that is exactly what Trump might try to do. Any other Republican and I would tell you to prepare for a garden variety autocracy.
But Trump’s fascination with the Insurrection Act is very, very troubling. If he actually tries to establish a military dictatorship because his abstract thinking ability is too weak to think of the power plays of an autocrat, we are all in A LOT of trouble.
And, yet, as I keep saying, I can’t fucking predict the future. There are plenty — plenty — of known unknowns that might allow us to punt all of our structural problems down the road. But if Trump goes full tyrant not as an autocrat, but as a would-be military dictator…you got me.
There just would be no viable endgame.
We would be going beyond just “bad optics” to the type of tyrannical behavior that might even make Traditionalists who just want brown children in cages again….to sit up and take notice.
Radical Moderates are found in William Safire’s novel “Freedom.” If that were to happen, then a group of people not seen since the American Civil War might appear in American politics — Radical Moderates. These are people who are usually Traditionalists, but, for a very brief amount of time are willing to adopt otherwise radical measures because of tectonic forces of political history.
But maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe Trump will lose. Or something. We still have a year of stewing in our political juices to find out one way or another.
Talking to my REALLY conservative Traditionalist relatives, it is clear that Trump has a huge amount of slack ahead of him if he decides to go full tyrant before this very important segment of the political body politic cares. They will cheer if Trump crushes BLM or Antifa in Blue State cities using the Insurrection Act. They will cheer if ICE is weaponized and turned into a Gestapo that forces 10 million undocumented people out of the country.
It won’t be until Trump starts to go after the free press and or snatches people they care about — like ME — that they might sit up and take notice. Or maybe they won’t. They might just become Good Germans and keep their head down and when I call Trump a “fucking cocksucker” at a bar somewhere and get picked up by an ICE agent, they may just shrug and say I had it coming. I love my conservative relatives dearly, but I sometimes fear they aren’t taking the threat from Trump seriously.
Of course, it could be that none of this is going to happen. It could be that Trump loses the election and simply wanders off without a peep other than vague threats of a National Divorce. That is a very real possibility. If that is the case, then we punt our problems down the road another four years.
That’s what I HOPE will happen. I WANT to be wrong. I really do. Anyway. if I’m right, then oh boy, are we in serious fucking trouble.
Editor’s Note: I’m not advocating anything. I’m just frustrated and sometimes I write provocative things generated from that frustration.
If Tyrant Trump freaks out we all may be antifa in 2025. Something that has really been weighing on my mind of late is — how bad, exactly, will things have to get before some direct action concepts that would otherwise NEVER HAPPEN suddenly become viable? Remember, none of the fascist dreams that Tyrant Trump will happen in a vacuum. If Trump and his goons literally begin to snatch people off the street — or drive them out of the country — there is going to be some sort of reaction on the part of the population.
Or will there? Is it possible that as long as the economy is going well and 1 million smug Twitter liberals with their circle jerk podcasts leave the country that….lulz? Even if we literally descend into tyranny of autocratic rule that…no one will care? There might be some riots or protests here or there, but if Tyrant Trump has scared the shit out of the broadcasts networks…no one will know about it?
Of course, Tyrant Trump thinks that all of his problems will be solved by invoking the Insurrection Act. This is very dumb and naive. That’s just not how this works, it’s not how any of this works.
I’ve read up on how the Nazis consolidated power in early 1933 and the crucial thing they had that Tyrant Trump won’t have is a paramilitary group. The U.S. Military is simply NOT the Nazi SA. On an institutional basis, the U.S. Military simply isn’t interested in being a tyrant’s bitch. It may slow walk any knocking of heads if Trump causes mass riots across the country, or, if there was a Women’s Strike or General Strike, they might even just stand down and wait for things to play out.
Who knows. Given the absence of a SA-like paramilitary group, things get really murky in early 2025 really quick. Even if Trump does everything in his power to corrupt the adminstration of civilian rule over the U.S. Military if Tyrant Trump does all the batshit insane things he wants to do…yikes. Things could get rather bonkers rather quick.
My fear is that a second Trump term would cause first a Glorious American Revolution….then a Secession Crisis as Reds balk at all the structural political reforms that Blues will want to push through.
The whole thing would be a clusterfuck. I don’t want it to happen, but I am gravely concerned that we’re just not prepared for what may happen in the United States starting in late 2024, early 2025.
I am growing more and more frustrated by well-meaning Twitter liberals who think that they can avoid risking their “lives and sacred honor” when it comes to defeating Tyrant Trump simply by “tweeting harder.”
They’re such pussies that I think it’s inevitable that when Tyrant Trump starts to literally round up people in late January 2025 that they’re just going to flee the country en masse. They just don’t have the guts to do anything else. They are going to leave us Poors to our own devices as the ranks of ICE agents swells and is weaponized and mysteriously drunk crank citizens like me will just go “poof” as 10 million undocumented people are rounded up and put in camps.
I don’t know what I’m going to do. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But I would also die on my feet than live on my knees a slave. So, lulz, come at me bruh?
I just am never, ever going to shut up. I’m never going to be a “Good German.” So, yeah, I’m willing to do the one thing that all those fucking smug Twitter liberals with careers and families aren’t willing to do — actually take an existential risk for what I believe in.
But, hopefully, it won’t come to that. Hopefully, Biden will win in 2024, Trump will fade into political oblivion and I can somehow sell my first novel.
Ok. There’s a lot to unpack here. It seems as though malignant ding-dong Trump and his goons MAY have made a pretty big strategic error in their plans to turn the United States into an autocracy starting in late January 2025. As I’ve written before, they assume that through sheer force of will they can corrupt the administration of justice and of the executive and turn America into a Hungary-style managed democracy without any problems.
They seem to think that as long as they have the Insurrection Act in their back pocket that everything else will be unicorns and rainbow farts for their autocratic dreams. That may be so….but I have some quibbles.
The ironic thing is just as liberals seem to think that someone is to swoop in and save us from Trump if they just tweet harder, so, too, do MAGA fascists believe that invocation of the Insurrection Act is some sort of fascist fairy dust. This, despite the U.S. Military being loathed to get involved any political issues fights and the United States being a diverse, decentralized country with a huge population and a long tradition of democracy.
So….lulz?
Yes, there is a lot of low hanging fruit for Trump in the first few days of his tyrannically second administration. He can arrest a lot of people he doesn’t like — or drive them out of the country. He can fire 100,000 civil servants, turn Voice of America into his propaganda organ, pull the US out of NATO and our troops out of Korea and Japan.
BUT…..none of this will happen in a vacuum.
And, as such, if there is some sort of massive revolt against dingus Trump for these tyrannical moves by the population…the Insurrection Act can only do so much. There is a key thing that Trump is missing — he has no paramilitary group to “forcefully suggest” to people that they shut up and go along with the America First agenda….and if they don’t, they end up in a camp.
There are two things to consider at this point.
One is, clearly while Trump is weaponizing the existing ICE infrastructure to round up 10 million(!) undocumented people in the US….he could probably use that same weaponization to turn ICE agents into something akin to the SA. So, I could see Trump passing a HUGE FUCKING BILL that would enlarge the ranks of ICE Agents to an astonishing level. They would serve the purpose of the Nazi SA in the first 100 days of Hitler’s consolidation of power in early 1933.
Or, Trump could go the more direct route and somehow organize an actual MAGA SA made up of consolidated group of Patriot Front, Proud Boys and Oath Keepers who would be his goons as the US lurched towards a Nazi-style autocracy.
BUT….This, too, would NOT happen in a vacuum. There would be some lag time between when all hell broke loose in the US because Trump went full tyrant and the time where he would have a 500,000 goons on the streets to knock heads. That would give anti-fascist forces a window of opportunity. Things like a Woman’s Strike or a General Strike with specific anti-fascist demands might be enough to convince the U.S. Military to at least stand down, if not actively join anti-fascist forces. In a sense, we would all be antifa at that point.
Remember, however, all of this would be happening in the context of mass chaos in the United States. There would be no assurance that any Blue Glorious Revolution would work — it could endup like what happened in Turkey and only make the autocrat more powerful by failing. And even if it was successful, it’s very possible that it would only cause a Secession Crisis as Red States — probably starting with Texas — would leave the Union rather than accept any sort of reforms that they knew would hurt the fascist MAGA agenda.
I don’t think the fucking nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter realize how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected. We would be going to the show, folks. This would be it.
America would either turn into a Russian-style autocratic state or we would somehow found a Third Republic.
I’m a bit worried. A year from now, the country COULD be tearing itself apart as we lurch towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or something akin to a civil war. I live in a really deep-Red area of Virginia and one of the signs that Something Bad is about to happen is if I don’t feel safe anymore.
If I have to flee my bum fuck Egypt home for a Blue part of Virginia…oh boy. Things would be careening towards a dark place. But to even speculate on such things really is hysterical doom shit.
It could be that Thanksgiving 2024 will be just…Thanksgiving. Nothing will change and I will do it like I always do. But, I dunno, bruh. It definitely seems as though the moment Election Day 2024 arrives things will be…bumpy.
By Thanksgiving 2024, either incoming POTUS Tyrant Trump will have made it clear who he’s going to arrest…or Biden’s re-election will cause a Secession Crisis and we’ll all being worried about Texas leaving the Union before January. But I just don’t know. It could go either way. It really could.
It might be that nothing of note happens by Thanksgiving 2024. But if Trump gets re-elected we are in DEEP TROUBLE.
While it’s EXTREMELY UNLIKELY, it’s at least *possible* that some combination of a General Strike, a much-delayed invocation of the 14th Amendment and a military coup might happen in the United States at some point starting in early 2025.
The reason is simple — Trump and his Agenda47 & Project 2025 simply believe that invoking the Insurrection Act will magically allow them to pin the American populace down while they transition us into some sort of autocratic military dictatorship.
That’s not these things work. That’s not how any of this works!
The U.S. Military is a very pro-democratic (small d) institution and no amount of filling the Defense Department with a bunch hand-picked fascist goons will change that. And they can fire all the leaders in the military they like, too — they would be grasping at straws because they don’t have an SA. They don’t have a paramilitary group at their beck and call to knock heads on a practical basis.
And, what’s more, even if MAGA is plotting so top secret large-scale paramilitary organization, the 2025 USA is not 1933 Weimar Germany. The US is a very decentralized country will millions of people, a large land footprint and a long, deep tradition of democracy.
That is why if anyone else was in Trump’s position, then, yeah, I could see us peacefully transitioning into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Because they would be smart about it and slowly, bit by bit transition us into a managed democracy like what is found in Russia, Turkey and Hungary.
But this is malignant ding-dong Trump we’re talking about. He’s going to swoop in and frantically try to get revenge on anyone who has hurt his fee-fees to the point that he could very well shock a lot, A LOT of those sweet, sweet Traditionalists who to date have been willing to be quite simply so they can put kids in cages.
I say this as someone who has come to believe that the only “red line” for Traditionalists when it comes to MAGA Nazis is the personal. So it doesn’t really matter what the use, the Insurrection Act or some super-secret expansion of the Patriot Front — the moment MAGA Nazis are to, well, act like MAGA Nazis, there is probably going to be some sort of mass uprising in the United States.
Now, if anyone would listen to me — but they never do — what I would do is start NOW to organize some sort of Women’s Strike. Start to tell women across the country that if Trump is re-elected and he goes full Nazi tyrant, to simply not go to work. En masse. For a few days.
Remember, any reaction on the part of MAGA Nazi Tyrant Trump would probably evoke a severe response from Americans who otherwise wise don’t even think about politics. If Trump tries to crush a Women’s strike using the Insurrection Act OR via some expanded Patriot Front, it would not happen in a vacuum.
There would be consquences.
Now, in my fevered imagination, once a few very pissed off women stopped going to work, you could use that momentum to organize a General Strike. Then you pitch the idea to the U.S. Military that *legally* Trump and his toady Veep aren’t even legally in office.
Ta-da. There you go. End Trump problem. Now, doing that would cause a series of OTHER problems. You would have to make sure the Speaker of the House wasn’t MAGA Mike. And you would also need to somehow force a non-MAGA aligned Constitutional Convention be called up.
This whole plot has been complicated just now by the fact that a judge has determined that the 14th Amendment doesn’t apply to Trump. But will note that during Reconstruction there were some…novel…interpretations of the Constitutional that would be similar to how a Radical Moderate might use against Trump to oust him.
But, anyway….lulz. No one listens to me. No one cares.
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