Month: November 2020

My Hot Take On Kyle Rittenhouse


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin on this one. It definitely seems as though if you want something that encapsulates what’s going on in American politics right now, you need look no further than Kyle Rittenhouse murdering people in cold blood and the American Right rallying to his support.

There’s no defense, none what so ever, for what Rittenhouse did, and, yet, here we are with people spotting him his $2 million bail so he can get endorsements from a gun manufacturer. It’s completely bonkers. The only thing I guess you might use to explain this otherwise surreal behavior is Rittenhouse is now something of a John Brown figure.

He did what a bunch of grown men think they wanted to do, and so they bought into his martyrdom and here we are. I’ve come to believe that barring something pretty spectacular, that there isn’t going to be a civil war. Any violence is going to come from Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act — probably because of mass protests from him staging A Very American Coup.

But, otherwise, meh. Just don’t see it.

Or, put another way, it’s possible the far Right is going to start murdering people, the government will support it and then, and only then, will there be something marketed as a “civil war.”

For the time being, however, we’re heading towards something of a stalemate, not civil war. A lot of protests, maybe, and the occasional bonkers Right wing person like Rittenhouse killing innocent people, but otherwise, not a lot is going to happen.

I’m willing to revise that assessment as a events warrant.

Autocrats Never Lose: What If You Held A Second American Civil War & And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves, it’s possible that as we speak, Trump dangling sweet, sweet cash in front of Republican legislators from states like Michigan and Pennsylvania as a form of quid pro quo for them to throw the election to him by “nullifying” the certification of the vote.

In other words, damn the law, they just won’t do it because they don’t want to.

Now, as I understand it, the logic of these shenanigans is to throw the election to Congress where the, because the House and Senate are split, SCOTUS will get involved and, by definition, Trump will win. It would be nothing less than a political 9/11. We’re all just going to walk around in a daze for a few days that Trump managed to pull it off.

And, really, at that point the circle will be closed. We can impeach Trump (and Pence?) all we want to, but TrumpBarr will begin to consolodate power at an alarming rate and he’ll laugh off any impeachment trial in the Senate. I say this even if we manage to win to those two crucial Georgia Senate seats. Trump could murder someone in cold blood while having sex with Ivanka and eating a baby and Senate Republicans won’t blink an eye. As long as Trump doesn’t become a Muslim or raise taxes, he really is something akin to a God King.

It’s sad, but true.

I keep ranting about how all that would start a civil war, but would it really? There might be huge protests, but a civil war? Really? More likely with the upcoming purge of the media, we’ll just be in a Belarusian-like stalemate where there are lots of protests but nothing really happens. And any violence that does happen, TrumpBarr just use the Insurrection Act to squelch it.

Then Trump demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment,” and before you know it, they’re passing a 1984 doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights.”

So, that’s it. That’s how America finally becomes a Russian-style autocracy. We have a political 9/11, nothing really happens and American democracy dies not with a bang but with a whimper.

Oh well. At least I have the novel. I’d prefer not to be pushed out of a window by ICE before I can finish it.

America Is So Fucked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see how we get out of this current situation without some sort of major political violence. All the conditions are there. The only this missing is one — 1! — extremists on either side blowing something up or killing someone important and we have a civil war / revolution on our hands.

On one end, it would just be huge protests — enough for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act — and we would have something akin to what’s going on in Belarus right now: a stalemate. A lot of protests, but not much change. Trump quickly consolidates power by purging the media, among other things, and the First Republic is felled by a deranged, failed TV gameshow host.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have an honest-to-God civil war. It’s not a few hundred people who die, it’s potentially a FEW FUCKING MILLION. We pretty much just nuke and gas ourselves into oblivion because working class white men can’t figure out the point of the progressive tax and are very VERY afraid of being “canceled” because of a stray Tweet.

Throw in the potential for a WW3, and we’re talking about a serious End of The Age kind of situation.

But, thankfully, I’m almost always wrong. So, we’ll see.

I do need to drink more, though.

All Systems Go


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are moving extremely fast with the novel now. It took what felt like hundreds of revisions of the outline, but things appear to finally be stablazing to the extent that I can sit down and write.

I still have a huge amount of reading to do for the more nuanced aspects of character, but that can be dumped into the second draft. For the moment, I just want to finish a first draft. And, at last, it appears that’s a real possibility.

Of course, there’s a real possibility that either no one wants to read this thing now that we’re going to be in the Biden Era or, worse yet, there’s a civil war / revolution and people REALLY won’t want to read it.

But this novel gives me hope, if nothing else.

Pay Attention, People: Rudy Wants Republicans To Nullify The Election Of Joe Biden On An Institutional Level


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are so very fucked. I’m well aware that I overestimate RudyTrumpBar a lot, but Rudy is using on Republicans the same strategy he has used time and again on the American people over the last 4 years. Rudy doesn’t care about court, he cares about media narrative messaging for one specific group: the Republicans who have it within their power to certify the vote.

And that’s just one of several huge crises we have to suffer through. If the certification crisis doesn’t work, then we have the Elector Intemidation crisis to live through. THEN we have the Great Trump January Freak Out crisis to deal with.

Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never fucking lose.

I’m wrong all the fucking time. But it definitely seems as this point either we stumble into an extreme version of the 2000 election or we have a fucking civil war / revolution. Like, one where real people with real lives — like you and fucking me — die for no Goddamn reason.

The “best” case scenario then is we just have lingering political violence after Trump uses the Insurrection Act to manage the country. Worst fucking case scenario is the country implodes and we have an actual, real life fucking civil war with armies and WMD used, the entire collapse of the global order and WW3.

I’m well aware that this sounds extremely hysterical, but Rudy has made it quite clear what his strategy is — he wants to “shame” Republicans into nullifying the election for our very lazy, very deranged autocrat Mad King.

This is our future. Or, at least, the future Rudy is actively attempting to create. What happens when this “political 9/11” happens is up to us.

All Roads Lead To SCOTUS (& A Coup…Then A Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am often wrong. But here’s what I’m looking at right now. The entire point of the Trump’s legal challenges to the election is to get to SCOTUS. Once it’s at SCOTUS they will win, no matter what.

Then the whole country convulses and a civil war breaks out.

Why anyone would actually WANT such a civil war is beyond me. But we just have way too much time between now and January 20th for SCOTUS to not get involved. There are just too many moving parts that TrumpBarr can fuck with.

I predict we’re going to have a “political 9/11,” very soon where we all wander around in a daze for a few hours as it sinks in that Rudy got SCOTUS to overturn the election. It will be a real “where were you when” type of moment. This will happen either as a result of a “certification crisis” or an “Elector intimidation’ crisis.

Really, the only reason why we might manage to escape this clusterfuck is, well, not only has the election already been called, but Trump and Rudy are just very, very incompetent. But they do have Barr.

So, prove me wrong, folks. I really want to be wrong. But, remember, there are two different Americas right now. There’s MAGA America and everyone else. In MAGA land, they assume my worst nightmare is simply a reality waiting to happen.

Throw in the Insurrection Act and we’re all fucked. At best, we’ll have regular huge protests and massive explosions around the country, at worst we have dueling presidents and actual civil war / revolution. If you want that, please fuck off you piece of shit.

A Curious John Lennon Counter-Factual


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a huge fan of John Lennon. And, yet, it’s easy to imagine him as something of a British Trump had he lived. Right before he died, there are rumors he was a fan of Ronald Reagan.

Add 40 years and him becoming far, far more conservative, and it’s pretty easy to imagine him getting into British politics and, well, destroying the UK. On a personal level, Lennon was a very difficult person. He could be so deranged that I could imagine a 74 year old John Lennon being elected PM and overthrowing the monarchy to establish some sort of neo-fascist state.

So, I guess, in a sense, we can just be grateful for the legacy that we have in reality. God speed, John.

Of Taylor Swift


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really like Taylor Swift. And, yet, there’s something “hot-but-not-sexy” about her. This, I think, is why she will never have any career in Hollywood. She has a very passionate fanbase who would be flabbergasted in the extreme if she, say, did nudity in a movie to further her career.

And, really, I don’t even think she should worry about it. She’s hitting on all cylinders right now…why change? She probably has a 30+ year career ahead of her — if not more – and she’ll sort of a far more popular version of Shania Twain when she’s in her 40s or 50s.

Though, it might be her natural ambition that gets her in trouble. There’s going to come a point when she’s married and has kids and basic human nature will kick in. She’s going to be, “Fuck it, a little T&A never hurt anyone, right?” I guess what I’m saying is, she could lay the groundwork for that NOW, instead of springing it on her fanbase later.

She’s done a few things here and again to spice her imagine up, but nothing too provocative. And, again, she’s fine. She has no reason to change. She is in the exact center of pop culture right now — no need for her to to an all-female version of Midnight Cowboy or anything.

The only thing I could maybe see causing her to change her imagine some is if, say, Miley Cyrus’ career began to eclipse hers or something. But Ms. Swift is such a gentle, awkward soul that I would be stunned if she did anything, anything at all, to change her imagine.

And I can’t say I blame her.

Notes On A Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

1. Know your arts and crafts.
2. Own a stapler and your own printer.
3. Have something to say.
4. Don’t judge what your motivation is, just have some.
5. Be extremely patient — you will screw up, a lot.
6. Be your own editor.
7. Think about the meta as much as development and writing
8. Don’t get cocky. Stay humble.
9. It’s ok to be paranoid.
10. No one owes you shit.
11. Everyone thinks you suck. The only opinion that matters is yours.
12. Think visually.
13. Stick to your vision.
14. Don’t forget to be paranoid of IP concerns. Creation is hard work. One day that IP might be YOURS.
15. Don’t overthink things. Publish or perish.
16. It’s going to take a lot longer than you think to finish the novel.
17. The sooner you break free of any “rules” you have for yourself, the better.
18. Character and plot are pretty much the same thing.
19. Good luck.

The MAGA Dog That Hasn’t Bitten Anyone (Yet)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Thankfully, no MAGA cocksucker has taken Trump up on his now near-constant effort to incite political violence. Not that it won’t happen, but it’s eerie that it hasn’t happened to date.

Anyway, all that has to happen is one (or a few) Oklahoma City-style bombings or a major assassination and that could be the cover Trump needs to take ‘total control.”

Or, put another way, we have a very, very, very long few weeks ahead of us. Remember, Rudy being in control of the Trump Campaign’s effort to steal the election has more to do messaging Republican state legislatures than anything else.

It’s easy to imagine a “political 9/11” situation where a number of Republican legislatures all decide at the same time to not certifiy the election. Then it all goes to Congress where the law on all of this is shit. Thus, it goes to SCOTUS and Trump will absolutely win, no matter what.

What’s more, even if we get passed the certification crisis, we still have the Elector intimidation crisis and the January Trump freakout crisis. Good luck.