Month: August 2021

A Rough Chronology Of Trump’s January 6th Autogolpe Plot


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m too lazy to hunt down the details of what I’m about to write — I’m not writing for VOX, after all — but here is a rough outline of what I know about the events leading up to Trump’s January 6th attempted autogolpe. I’ve added relevant text from another post I’ve written to flesh out this post.

Background
When the history of Trumplandia is written, two people will stick out as having changed everything by what they did — or didn’t do: Bill Barr and Mike Pence. What makes their actions so weird in hindsight is neither one of them was ever mentioned as the “guardrails” that were going to save us from Trump’s excesses. In fact, they were some of the biggest toadies for Trump — until they weren’t at very crucial moments in time.

First, Bill Barr. Bill Barr — at least in my opinion — had a specific purpose when he was originally hired: end the Mueller Investigation. He wrapped that up and did plenty of really shitty things. And then in the 2020 – 2021 timeframe he did something that saved American democracy for four more years: nothing. He sat on his hands.

So, even though Barr intimately knew on a personal basis how badly Trump wanted DOJ to indict the Bidens, or Hillary or Obama or whomever, he was able to simply slow walk all of Trump’s would-be autocratic moves so they were moot. Without Barr doing that, it’s very possible that all the autocratic things I thought up in 2020 Trump would have done and he would still be president.

It is a testament to what a lazy ding-dong Trump is that in the summer and early fall of 2020 he was not far more aggressive against Biden. Anyone else in Trump’s position would have leaned into the fact that he was now politically above the law and, as such, could do anything to stay in power and it work. If Bill Barr wouldn’t indict the Bidens, then a true autocrat in Trump’s position would have fired him in the middle of 2020 and found someone who would. Trump talked a lot about indicting Hunter Biden or Joe Biden…but it was all talk. He didn’t even simply fire anyone necessary to have something akin to the Second Comey Letter released.

We can only conclude from this that Trump is a historical and political avatar. He’s not a great man, he just kind of drifts through history reflecting the rot of our undead liberal democracy back at us. As such, it didn’t really sink into Trump he might be forced out of office until the moment it was too late to use politics — the moment the election was called for Biden. It was at this moment Trump both freaked out and, on a political level, all of Trump’s options ended.

Thus, Trump would have to use extra-political means to stay in office.

The Modern Republican Party

Autogolpe
When, on a political basis, all of Trump’s options faded away, he began to freak out and think up ways to stay in office through an autogolpe — self-coup. His first idea was to berate and lean on the people who certified the election results in an effort to get them to nullify Biden’s win that way. He was calling up election officials from all over the country — and even inviting to the White House –in a panicked, desperate attempt to nullify Biden’s win at one of its weakest links.

When that didn’t work, Trump continued to panic. He began to lean on the Justice Department, hoping that they would simply say “the election was corrupt.” That’s all he wanted, just like with Ukraine. He just wanted people with authority to announce an investigation into the “corrupt” 2020 election and then he and Rudy would use the same agitprop techniques of the last five odd years to, through sheer ego and bullshit — force the election into the House and Senate.

Here’s something to mull — it’s very possible that our autocracy will come “legally’ when Republicans starting in 2024 always push POTUS elections into the House and Senate. Because Republicans have a majority of House delegations, they will always win. Let me repeat that: They. Will Always. Win. Because this up-to-now obscure element of the Constitution is their ultimate failsafe for winning elections, Republicans will use it to establish white Christian minority rule.

In fact, if America slips peacefully into autocracy, it will be because of that specific provision of the Constitution. It will be “Constitutional” so it will give the liberal media a hook to explain to the average person why they should cool it with talk of a civil war. This development will be framed just like the Bush V. Gore decision and, gradually, it will be such conventional wisdom that Republicans always win presidential elections that Republicans will finally get what they want: people will stop voting.

Of course, Republicans, once they know they can do whatever the fuck they want, will inevitably abuse their power to the point where we’re indistinguishable from autocratic Russia or there’s a civil war. I think we’re probably just going to become an autocracy and that’s it. At the moment, I just don’t see us breaking the seal on civil war.

If civil war happens, it will probably happen directly because of Trump’s personal incompetence at some critical moment in history. If history picks anyone else to shepherd us into autocracy, then it’s a done deal.

Let’s go back to the autogolpe. In the end, what spelled the demise of Trump’s autogolpe plot was how fucking lazy and stupid he was. He came up with all these ideas for how to throw the election into the House and Senate…and he just couldn’t bring himself to pull the trigger. He just was too deranged to simply fire anyone necessary to get that accomplished.

All the conditions were there, but, in the end, it was Trump, specifically, who fucked up and gave American democracy a few years of breathing room.

Because Trump could not pull the trigger, the last ditched effort of the autogolpe was something like this — gather a bunch of die hard MAGA fuckers near the Capitol, incite them in a speech, and then see what happened. At moment, there is no evidence that Trump knew how successful the insurrection would be, but he and his toadies knew, in general, what was likely to happen. In this respect, Trump gave himself some “plausible deniability” should the insurrection actually be a success.

So, from what I can tell, what Trump wanted was to get the mob to browbeat Pence into not certifying the vote. Why else were they chanting, “Hang Mike Pence?” This would throw everything up in the air and then Congress would get involved and that’s where Trump thought he would win because in the House each state delegation would get one vote and Republicans have a majority of delegations

The specific uses of the Electoral Count Act elude me, but it might have bene the middle step that Trump and Rudy could have fucked with to get a win. But the point remains — weirdly enough, we all owe Pence a lot of gratitude for destroying his political career by doing his fucking job.

Pence is the consummate Trump sycophant. Or, at least, he was until January 6th. After defending Trump at every turn for any and everything he did, no matter how horrible or autocratic, on January 6th Pence gave American democracy a second chance by simply doing his fucking job. (Which in the specific case of certification was simply to announce the certification, he didn’t really have to do anything other than not nullify the certification by going rouge.)

And, so because of the actions of two people everyone assumed would be Trump’s lapdogs, American democracy was spared for a few years. You honestly could not make such shit up.

Anyway, once Pence certified the vote, Trump lost.

I Love You Fran Lebowitz, But I have A Bone To Pick With You


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Fran Lebowitz, if she were closer to my age, would be almost my ideal woman — if she was straight and wanted to date a loser like me that is.

Anyhoo.

I saw her quip to never read the book of someone who says they “love to write.” I understand the gist of the comment, but I think it’s unfair. It’s especially unfair coming from someone like her who hasn’t written shit in like 40 years. Of course she would say that — the best writer in her view is a writer who doesn’t write, e.g., HER.

I wouldn’t say I “love” to write, but I have to write. I like to say that photography is my real passion, while I write like I’m shedding skin. I don’t really think about it, I just do it a lot by just being who I am. Does that mean I “love” to write, or that I’m just a writer?

The reason why I’m so self-conscious about this is I could totally see myself — should I ever sell the four novels I’m writing at the moment — getting really drunk at a cocktail party in NYC and saying something about how I “love” to write. Lebowitz might be there and roll her eyes so hard I could here it.

The point of all this is I don’t want to be a good writer so much as I want to be a POPULAR writer. Take that, Fran!

That’s A Pretty Big Ask, Lorne



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Lorne Michaels is asking his current group of Not Ready For Primetime Players to sign three year contracts so they will all be there for the big 50th Anniversary season — when, presumably, Michaels with retire.

That’s a pretty big ask, in my opinion.

A sizable chunk of the SNL players have been on the show for a long, long time. I understand that Michaels wants to end his time with the show on a high note, but…really? I dunno. The last show of the season last year definitely seemed to indicate that almost everyone on the show was about to leave.

But, who knows.

All I do know is once Michaels leaves, the entire show is going to be throw into a severe crisis for no other reason than TV execs usually screw up a good thing because they’re metrics are all out of whack compared to the audiences.

‘Mare Of Easttown’ Joins Stieg Larsson As A Major Influence On The Novels I’m Developing & Writing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The book that inspired my now three-year obsession was Stieg Larsson’s The Girl Who Played With Fire. I knew I had a lot to say about the Trump Era and after some fits and starts, I decided to try to think up an American Lisbeth Salander in that context.

That was a long time ago and the whole thing has changed dramatically. Now I have four compelling stories all set in the same universe that pretty much are the origin story for something akin to an American female James Bond. (Sorta.) It’s not a one-to-one, but rather than the vigilante like Salander, my character has, by the end of the series (which paves the way for a series of books about her new life) something bigger than her.

Mare of Easttown

Anyway.

Having watched Mare of Easttown, I realize that these four books really need an infusion of character. Things are going really well, but Mare of Easttown is forcing me to up my game. I have a small library of books to read as soon as possible.

But given what’s going on in most of these four books, I really, really need to mull made the show such a great story. The novels in my head definitely share some of the themes of Mare of Eattown and it’s just a matter of figuring out how to take them to the next level.

The key thing is to stop writing about writing and to actually start to write. But I’m something of a development obessive, so it just takes time to get to the point where I can start writing without living in fear that everything is going to collapse AGAIN.

For a very specific personal reason, I’m kind of locked in neutral for a few days and I’m using that time to throw myself into development. I’m hoping that maybe I even dig around the outline of the second book in a big way by the time I get back to writing on the first novel.

The Bear State Republic: Arsenal of Democracy In A Second American Civil War


by Ender

No matter how much the modern Slavocrats may think they can defeat the “woke” soyboys of the Blue States simply by starting a dumb, tragic Second American Civil war, they face a huge fucking obstacle to any such victory: California.

The thing that would make California a new “arsenal of democracy” should a civil war break out is its economy, population and unified polity. It’s a big enough state that it, itself, is a nation. This is where it becomes VERY OBVIOUS how fucking stupid a civil war would be. If you look at what the war aims of the Red States would be, they’re very self defeating.

How could Texas and / or Florida fight back against a California plains state blitzkrieg if they’re fighting a fucking race war? The MAGA New Right wants to establish a white Christian entho state — not something that really engenders a lot of support from POC.

The Liberators

As such, if you can just get California to stay in the Union, you put the state on a war footing as quickly as possible, secure Oregon and Washington then race across the mountain and plains states to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Texas would likely be suffering from an intra-state civil war so you catch them on the back foot. The fighting would be horrific, but California would win. At the same time you have another horrific battle in Ohio and Indiana, but the momentum would be on Blue State’s side.

If things have gotten THIS BAD –where is the Federal government and U.S. Military? — then a race war has erupted in most of the old CSA. you do a peincer movement heading west and south in hopes of hooking up with Atlanta which is probably a strong Blue holdout.

Wildcard: if Red States are panicking, they’re going to use stolen WMD.

And, remember, the entire post WW2 global liberal order will have collapsed so to add to what’s going on domestically in the United States, a number of limited nuclear exchanges will likely have happened.

This entire clusterfuck would be the Fourth Turning. A huge reset. What the endgame would ultimately be would be up to us, if we survive.

What Was Trump’s January 6th Autogolpe Plot?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Background
The bonkers thing about what happened on January 6th is Trump was so fucking lazy and stupid as an autocrat that he waited to the very last moment to attempt an autogolpe (self-coup). Any other autocrat would have wrapped up the theft of the 2020 election before it was even held by firing whomever stood in the way of an indictment of Joe Biden.

It is testament to what lazy, moronic brat Trump is that even a rando like me kept thinking up the most obvious ways to steal the 2020 election and Trump just could not comprehend how to do it. The political conditions existed for Trump to steal the election without an autogolpe right up until the point where the election was officially called for Biden.

January 6th

The Plot
First, given what we know of how Trump thinks, I doubt there were all that many specific elements to the plot. Probably, Trump knew what he wanted — stay in power no matter what — and he just ranted about that around his toadies so much that they began to use the spaghetti method to see what stuck. For some reason, a number of opportunities for Trump to pull the trigger on the “just say it was corrupt and I’ll take care of the rest” idea — and he didn’t do it. This is is very, very weird. Why he would choke simply because of the prospect of mass resignations is very strange.

But back to the plot.

I suspect it went something like this — in a general way, Trump and his co-conspirators created the conditions for a mob to attack the Capitol in hopes that when Trump told them to attack they would and this would either buy them time or force Pence’s hand on the certification of Electors or both.

When you have a very powerful brat to deal with as normal human being, your main goal is to buy time so you don’t have to deal with their disappointment. The theory Trump had was every moment the election wasn’t certified by Congress was a moment they might be able to somehow win.

But more specifically, they probably had a two pronged approached to their autogolpe — neutralize Pence and get the election thrown into Congress where Trump and Rudy could muddy the waters on a political level so much that they might, just might, get within shouting distance of winning that way.

If they could just put enough pressure on Pence so that he refused to certify the election — even though that isn’t within his power to do — then they would throw everything at Congress. All they needed was to get the extremely poorly written Electoral Count Act involved and all the bullshit agitprop techniques that were so successful for them over the years would take care of the rest.

Once they got past the huge personal obstacle of Pence, and they got the Electoral Count Act involved, their next goal would be to get the election thrown into the House and Senate. If the House picks POTUS, then each state’s delegation has just one vote.

And that would be how Trump would “win” in such a way that gave Fox news a media narrative that would simply be Bush V. Gore Redux. Get over it, libs, you lost, Trump is YOUR president, too, (again.)

An unknown is what was Jim Jordan’s involvement in this plot. Why did Trump in the waning days of his administration give Jorden, of all people, the Presidential Medal of Freedom? Was there something specific that Jorden did over and above the call of duty in this particular plot that Trump felt forced his hand? Does Jorden know something that no one else does? He got the medal AFTER January 6th, so it sure does sound like Trump was both thanking him and making sure stayed loyal in the future, no matter what.

I do believe there was a specific, coordinated attempt to stage an autogolpe on January 6th. What I don’t think happened was it was all that well thought out or had any specific sequence of events they thought they could pull off, which was why it failed.

They just wanted to buy time, get the election thrown into Congress and then attack the process with everything they had. It’s possible that some very smart, well educated people actually did have a specific goal in mind — get the House to pick the president — but they failed because of how stupid, lazy and disorganized the leader of the plot — Trump — was.

All I know is we won’t be as lucky next time.

‘Mare Of Easttown’ Is A Swift Kick In The Creative Ass For Me


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was really impressed with Mare Of Easttown. In fact, for a moment near the end, I almost had a Brian Wilson listens to Sargent Pepper’s come-to-Jesus-moment.

This quickly passed, however.

They say if you have time to write, you have to time to read (and watch.) After my I overcame my shock as to how similar — in a vague way — my four novel series was to the show, I started to plot. (Literally and figurative.)

Now that I’ve gotten my wits again, I realize my series is same same but different to Mare of Easttown. This is good because on a marketing level you could say, “If you liked Mare of Easttown, you’ll LOVE this…”

But, of course, it will be so long in the future before I get to that point that Mare Of Easttown could be in its second (or third!) season by that point.

But the show is great. I highly recommend it.

Now to top it.

I See You, ‘Mare Of Easttown’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I see you, “Mare of Easttown.”

Challenge accepted.

You’ve inspired me to up my game and make a compelling four book series that embraces and extends the themes of your character-driven first season.

Be prepared.

American Civil War 2.0: WMD & Blue Victory



By Ender

One reason why the American MAGA New Right is very, very dumb to crave a second civil war is they’re assuming that all such an event would be is nothing more than politics with the opportunity to use violence against liberals.

The MAGA New Right is so busy sucking its own cock that they forget something: once things become existential for both sides the state of play is dramatically different. A lot of the dumber “woke” shit that Leftist spout off about would suddenly evaporate. It’s hard to be a trustafarian when your family is staring down the barrel of a gun.

That’s probably the single biggest strategic miscalculation of the MAGA New Right — they glorify political violence, blame liberals for “forcing” them to engage in it because they assume the center-Left is made up of a bunch of transgenderd soyboys who will be easy to get rid of. This goes against all of human existence: even the most fey of people are going to fight back extremely hard if their lives depend on it.

That’s why, it’s in the interests of the MAGA New Right to stop being such crybabies and to continue work within the confines of politics — all they have to do is be patient and they’ll get everything they want without firing a shot. I would compare it to Slave Power in 1861. If they had just stayed in the Union, they had probably could have kept their slaves a solid 10 more years at least.

Even the election of Lincoln was, on a political level, a very soft, general indication of political trends. But they South decided on war and they lost everything in a very violent manner.

So, too, could the MAGA New Right lose everything if they turn to organized political violence. Just sketching things out in my mind gives me a lot to work with if things become existential. Blue States have bigger economies, are more politically unified and have populations that are more concentrated. If the U.S. Military somehow collapses and you have essentially state- verse- state warfare without any central military, then California can easily on its own seize everything between it and the Blue States of the midwest with only Texas standing in its way.

America, 2021

But even Texas is shifting Blue and if an actual civil war started it might implode, especially once the state government radicalized and started some sort of “Final Solution” against POC.

And it’s because of how quickly Red States would realize what a huge mistake they had made by pushing us into violence that WMD would be seized and then we bomb ourselves into the stone age. Once WMD were used, everything would be taken to the next level with both sides growing far, far more radical than they ever imagined.

It would be a huge, historic reset not only in the United States, but the entire world. Everything would change, nothing would stay the same. So, it’s best if we just don’t do that, ok? Let’s not start killing each other for political reasons? Please?

But I fear I’m wasting my breath. Just like how war was glorified in Europe leading up to World War 1, so, too, does the MAGA New Right glorify the prospect of a Second American Civil War.

Blue States are going to win, though, you idiots.

The Republican Party Is Modern ‘Slave Power’ & Must Be Destroyed


by Ender

Sooner or later, because the Republican Party on an systemic, essential basis is nothing more than modern “Slave Power” we’re going to either live under its jackboot or destroy it.

Now, a number of NeverTrumpers talk about this need to destroy the Republican Party, but they always talk about it in an extremely abstract, rhetorical fashion. And, for the time being, that’s probably the best course of action. But when such MAGA New Right “thought leaders” like Jesse Kelly and the talking heads of FOX News’ primetime up pretty much say we’re headed towards political violence — and it’s all liberals’ fault — something’s gotta give.

Again, let me be absolutely clear — I hate violence. I hate guns. All of my ranting here is done in sort of a “psychohistory” way. I’m looking at general, macro political, economic and demographic trends and making a pretty obvious conclusion — we’re fucked. And, because I absolutely refuse to let a tool like Jesse Kelly intimidate me, I’m calling his bluff. He’s not going to blame ME for the political violence HE glorifies.

I have seen how abstract fears about — essentially — “replacement theory” on the part of the MAGA New Right are destroying our liberal democracy and I feel forced to make my own abstract fears concrete. Hence, my obsessive “doom shit” about the looming existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

I also love scenarios so thinking up the specifics of how we might either peacefully transition into an autocracy or find ourselves destroying the Republican Party as part of a civil war is definitely my bailiwick. So any suggestion of violence is strictly wargaming. I’m a man of ideas and to me running a wargame about how we might defeat Trumplandia is just part and parcel of that.

Anyway, back to the point — there is going to come a point where just like during the Civil War slave power pushed us to the breaking point and ultimately caused its own destruction, so, too, is it likely that if the MAGA New Right doesn’t turn us into a Russian-style managed democracy that we (e.g. Blue States) are pushed into a historical corner and we have to destroy them on the field of battle.

And let me stress – I don’t want any political violence and I sure as fuck don’t want a civil war. Unlike the MAGA New Right fucktards I actually am aware of how fucking horrific a civil war would be. It would be massive, epic tragedy that would likely leave billions dead because the entire post-WW2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would happen.

But on a macro historical level, I just don’t see how we don’t avoid either autocracy or civil war. And if those are my choices, I won’t say I “pick” civil war, but that’s the high risk, high potential reward option that is a lot better than living under an autocracy. The reason why all of this is personal for me is I’m a loudmouth kook and I know that having the luxury of living in a free country like the United States has been — to date — is the only reason why I can rant about what a fucking cocksucker Mike Pompeo is without risk of being pushed out a window by ICE. (I talk about this a lot, I know, but it’s just a rhetorical flourish. A running gag, if you will.)

Any time you’re talking about leaving politics behind and settling things but killing people for ideological reasons, oh boy. War is hell and unpredictable and should be avoided at all costs. But, if I HAVE to think about it, the Blue States are a lot like the North — it might take a little while for them to get their shit together, but in the end they can vanquish their rival vision of America. A lot would depend, of course, on what California did.

If it simply leaves the Union at the onset of a Second American Civil War, then, lulz, welcome to Trumplandia.

It’s times like these where I wish I went to Harvard and worked at VOX so I could get paid to figure out what to tell you to do at this point. As it is, I’m at a loss.