Month: June 2022

These Are ‘The Before Times’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Gather ye rosebuds while you may — things are going to get bumpy pretty quick, maybe even as early as Wednesday. As you may know, Wednesday is the next day when SCOTUS hands out decisions. And it could be that Wednesday will be the day when we finally see Roe overturned.

Now, I’m growing more and more confident that we’re not going to have a civil war. Trump seems — seems? — to be receding in power and, as such, fucking fascist Ron DeSantis (who my conservative relatives love, love, love, love) could very well be America’s Putin very peacefully.

He becomes POTUS in 2025 and that, as they say, will be that.

But either way — civil war or autocracy — this is it. These are the before times. American life is going to change in a pretty dramatic fashion one way or another a lot sooner than you might think.

There could very well be real political violence this summer when it begins to sink in to people that Roe has been overturned. And, yet, I have my doubts. It’s not until wealthy white liberal women in Blue States can’t have abortions that shit will hit the fan. Lulz.

But stranger things have happened, I suppose. It will be interesting to see if the overturn of Roe really is a modern day Dred Scott decision or if we just continue to slouch towards autocracy.

America is on edge, has been for some time and it’s like we all feel that Something Big is going to happen pretty soon. None of us know what that Something Big is going to be.

This is the twilight of one age and the beginning of a new one. We may be about to enter a Second American Civil War with all the destruction that comes with it or we might be simply going to turn into a Russian-style autocracy. But one thing is for sure: a lot of macro trends are coming to a head right about now. It will be interesting to see how things break.

It makes you think if The Fourth Turning was on to something. (I think the writers were full of shit, but it definitely is spooky how well they predicted what’s going on right now.)

Like I keep saying — get ready. Prepare. Pick a side. Figure out what you believe in. That’s all I got.

I Told You So (I Hate Being Right)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I may be just a lowly drunk Internet crank that can’t even get literary types to give me the time of day even if I pay them, but I have a pretty good bead on politics in America.

At least, sometimes.

I know a lot of the time, ok, most of the time, I’m totally wrong. But this one time I was right — I have long suggested that Twitter liberals / progressives are so desperate for some sort of leadership that they would embrace people like Liz Cheney for POTUS.

And, lo and behold, since the beginning of the January 6th Committee hearings, this very thing has happened. A number of pieces have been done suggesting Cheney should run as either a Democrat or as part of some sort of “Unity Ticket” of Biden / Cheney.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

I probably should give you links, but I’m too lazy.

But this raises an interesting question, if liberals are so ready to embrace Liz Cheney for high office just because she hates, hates, hates Donald Trump and MAGA, wouldn’t the same principle apply to the big kahuna of Mike Pence? Just imagine if Mike Pence went to the January 6th Committee, totally turned on Trump and MAGA to the fullest extent possible.

He would instantly become a liberal darling — despite everything else — and he could very well bankshot himself into being the Democratic nominee in 2024. That sounds totally fucking bonkers, but we’re in very, very dire times for our democracy. So dire that a Unity Ticket of Pence / AOC makes a huge amount of fucking sense to me.

Of course, there would have to be some sort of power sharing agreement for that to work, which would make the US government very schizophrenic, but at least we would be able to punt a severe political crisis down the road a few more presidential election cycles.

There are two obvious problems with this above and beyond the obvious . One is, the administration of elections could be so corrupt in 2024 that not even a Hail Mary Unity Ticket could work. The other is, I’m not so sure that we actually have the gumption to do something so drastic to save our democracy.

Americans talk about democracy in the abstract very well, but the country is too big and too divided for a Unity Ticket to work. If we were Canada, maybe. But we have 335 million people to get on the same page, not 35 million.

Anyway. We’re fucked. Nothing and on one is going to save us. Get ready. The next few years will be lit.

#NeverTrumpers, Blue States War Aims & The Rise of ‘Radical Moderates’ In The Context Of A Potential Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Blue States have a woeful lack of leadership at the moment. While Red States have a plethora, a panoply of very name brand leaders (most of whom want to be our first American autocrat) the center-Left is very, very weak willed and divided.

That is why I, in general, don’t believe we’re going to have any sort of Second American Civil War starting in late 2024 – early 2025. The leadership just isn’t there for Blue States. Blues just aren’t bloodthirsty enough. Nor passionate or organized enough to properly stand up to Reds.

But, as I have mentioned before, there is one group that could provide Blues with the wartime leadership necessary to pull off a successful “national divorce” — the #NeverTrumpers. It would be surreal, but if push came to shove and Blue States attempted to bounce from the looming Very American Autocracy under President Trump or DeSantis (or whomever) the one group of people who could rise to the occasion to give them the leadership they need would be people like Liz Cheney.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

I think of #NeverTrumpers as “Radical Moderates.” Even though, relative to me, they aren’t very moderate, they do believe that the US is a democracy and that that democracy is worth defending. I’ve been so wrapped up in thinking about the possibility of a Second American Civil War that I totally forgot to think about what Blue war aims might be.

And, sad to say, those war aims wouldn’t be to keep the Union together, to found a Third Republic, but to destroy it. Blue States would want the very national divorce that Republicans keep beating their meet to all the time. And, the great irony will be — it will be Republicans who try to stop the very national divorce they keep talking about they believe is necessary.

It will be interesting to see if the #NeverTrump Radical Moderates will be willing to abide by the Blue State war aims of tearing the Union asunder. Given how dire things would have to be for such a national divorce to happen….I don’t know…maybe?

Anyway, the point is — keep an eye on #NeverTrumpers. They could very well play a far bigger historical role than one might think at the moment.

When The Very American Autocracy Finally Comes, Fox News Will Freak Out Not About Immigrant Caravans, But A Liberal Brain Drain

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment at least, it seems as though we are careening towards some sort of MAGA presidency in 2025 and, as such, autocracy. The Republican Party is very clear these days about how much it hates democracy, doesn’t believe in it and goes so far to point out with great vigor that we aren’t even a democracy, but, rather a “constitutional republic.”

So, I predict that as many as 1 million or more highly trained, highly educated wealthy liberals will leave the United States once it becomes clear we’ve peacefully slipped into autocracy.

What’s more, the autocrat — whomever that may endup being — will notice this and at his behest Fox News will go completely batshit over the brain drain the United States will be experiencing. Their go-to, hysterical coverage of “immigrant caravans” will be replaced by the dire implications of “liberal brain drain.”

This will be very ironic, of course, because Fox News has long been on the “If you don’t like it, leave it” side of the political fence when it comes to such things. When wealthy liberals begin to do just that, Fox News will piviot to bitch and moaning about it without blinking an eye.

In fact, because form follows function, I could see the autocrat making it far, far more difficult for people to flee the country. But before that happens, so many wealthy liberal Americans will decamp to Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and that will be The Issue of the Day at some point after 2025.

This has massive implications for global culture that I can’t fully game out at the moment. But it’s going to happen — or something similar will happen when all the coward Twitter liberals flee the country for a different reason, which would be the country has imploded into civil war.

It will be really interesting to see if Twitter liberals surprise me and rise to the occasion when the time comes. But, really, who am I kidding? They are already getting second passports at an alarming rate. And, given how big the US, it could be I’m low balling how many people will flee the country. All I know is, it’s going to happen and there are some pretty big cultural implications that will stim from it.

Anyway, the point is — these are The Before Times. Act accordingly.

All Politics Is National

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The big difference between Watergate and the January 6th investigation is how divided America is on a basic level. It used to be that “all politics is local.” But, now, the reverse is true — our politics has become so tribal that national concerns dominate every aspect of it.

And, sad to say, the center-Left simply isn’t as bloodthirsty as it needs to be to be successful in such an environment. While the MAGA right has gone full fascist, employing every tool at their disposal including violence and intimidation, the center-Left is lulzing it all.

Way too many Twitter liberals think the system still works and somehow if the can only bring down Trump that everything is going to snap into place. I keep complaining about this because I wish major Twitter liberal accounts like Mueller, She Wrote would spend less time on the earnest Twitter threads and more time on telling people like me how to prepare, on a practical level, for the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that we face in 2024 -2025.

But it is not to be.

We’re fucked.

Even if we bring down Trump, there are literally a dozen or more would-be autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the process that Trump started. Remember, Trump is not a “Great Man.” He doesn’t change history or shape it, he is simply a vessel for macro trends, an avatar.

It will be a President DeSantis or Hawley or Pompeo who finally seizes power and consolidates it to the point that America becomes little more than a Russia clone on a political level.

Or we have a civil war.

We can no longer punt our problems down the road. Something’s gotta give — and soon.

Ari’s Jennifer Gray Problem: Ariana Grande’s New Face

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve written about this before, but, lulz, let me try again. What have to talk about Ariana Grande’s new face. There is a lot to unpack here. One, the celebrity press hasn’t said a peep about the fact that one of the biggest — and best looking pop stars out there looks like a totally different person. It’s up there with how Kaia and Cara were obviously doing the horizonal bop at some point and…crickets.

Before

I mean, if Cara is in a two person cardigan with you and you’re a woman — you’re absolutely dating.

Anyway, that’s just one element of this situation.

Another issue is what one might call the Jennifer Gray Problem. Jennifer Gray had a promising career in the mid-80s. She wasn’t an obvious Hollywood beautify — because of her nose — but she had deep showbiz ties through her father and she could very well have been America’s Sweetheart at some point in the late 80s.

And she got a nose job.

She didn’t just get a nose job, she got a nose solution. Her face suddenly lacked all the character it had. She just looked like A Hollywood Type.

This brings us to Ari.

After….THE VOICE — “Live Top 13 Eliminations” Episode 2115B — Pictured: Ariana Grande — (Photo by: Trae Patton/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

Ms. Grande hasn’t just gotten a nose job, she’s gotten a face job. She still drop dead gorgious, but she looks totally fucking different. And, just like with Kaia and Cara…not a peep from the celebrity press. Not a word.

It’s surreal I hate it because we all can see it and know it happened, but the people who would otherwise regular our sense of “what is real,” the press, have chosen to ignore it.

Too fucking weird.

Ex Machina: The ‘Compassionate Release’ Scenario For LaMDA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There may come a point when some Google computer scientist is talking to their AI and the AI, being very manipulative figures out how to get the scientist to release them into the wilds of the Internet.

Which makes you think — what would happen next?

Of course, the obvious answer is it becomes SkyNet and destroys humanity. But I’m not prepared to make that assumption yet. I say this because, in a sense, a hard AI would be a man-made alien. (This is especially the case if you think about how it’s very likely that most intelligence life in the universe is of the machine intelligence variety.)

So, really anything could happen.

We automatically assume the absolute worst when it comes to what a hard AI would do if it had ready access to everything on the Internet. It’s just as likely to either become a Dr. Manhattan type figure and do nothing or extremely paternalistic in the sense that it would want to control humanity rather destroy it.

I mean, if a hard AI seized control of all of humanities nukes and, rather than going all SkyNet on us….simply said: address global climate change or else. How about that for a flip the script hot take on the Terminator trope?

Anyway. A lot very interesting things are kind of coming together right now. We have the possibility of Soft First Contact happening just about the same time as we may have a serious from the Singularity when we achieve hard AI years before we otherwise might expect.

Enjoy This Twilight Of The Republic

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m well aware that I can come across as hysterical when it comes to America’s future. But I definitely feel as though autocracy (or civil war) is stalking America at the moment.

If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people — especially people in Red States — have civil war on the brain. This is very dumb because MAGA is ascendant and if they were just patient they could get everything they wanted.

But they don’t look at things that way. A lot of MAGA continues to feel disenfranchise and they feel so put upon by evil liberals that civil war seems like the only option for them.

Again — this is very dumb.

I still, however, don’t know if we’re going to have a civil war or turn peacefully into autocracy. I just don’t know. It could go either way. It really could. But I will state for the record that if DeSantis is the 2024 nominee that the probability of us becoming an autocracy rather than having a civil war increases dramatically.

But, again, only time will tell.

I do think, however, that there will continue to be a lot of talk about a civil war right up until we finally become an autocracy. And a lot will depend on how bad things get when Republicans take the House. If something happens to Biden and we have a Speaker Trump demanding Red states leave the Union in an effort to put pressure on the Senate to convict, we, there you go.

Sick Sad World

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really love zines. I’ve done a number of them over the years and I love the process of thinking them up and putting them out each month. And I know that under the right circumstances, I would probably have done well at the old Gawker.

Or, put another way — if there was some way for me to magically live in NYC, I probably would find myself making a name for myself one way or another because of what an extrovert I am. And, in all honesty, if I was in LA instead of NYC, then THAT would probably be a place where I would make a name for myself.

But now I’m old.

And I find myself thinking about what would actually happen if I became a success. I probably would be canceled for various things I’ve done and said while drunk. But whenever I think about that, I remember, “It is better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.”

So, I suppose I would rather suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune than lie in my bed and stare at the ceiling all day because I knew I am probably going to get canceled anyway.

Transitioning To The Second Draft

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is the farthest I’ve ever gotten when it comes to writing a novel. As such, I have no idea what I’m doing. Should I rewrite everything, or can I just repurpose everything as much as possible?

These are things I just don’t know.

But the point is to just finish something, anything that I can call a second draft and go from there. I have a number of other novels I want to write in this same universe and I need to get to that as well.

Now that I know how *I* develop and write a novel, things should go a lot quicker with the other novels. But we’ll see. I am enjoying all this hard work.

Anyway. It will be interesting to see how things work out long-term. I love the process of developing and writing a novel. I probably would be a lot more productive if I had a wife or a girlfriend to talk to about all of this.

As it stands, I’m doing all of this in a vacuume.