Category: Cold Civil War
Mulling An American Military Junta Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It is definitely hysterical doom shit on my part to suggest that the United States might find itself with a military junta starting in late 2024, early 2025. It would be the first time in our history when such a thing had happen. It goes against everything the U.S. Military believes in even do such a thing in the first place.
As such, it definitely seems as though we’re going to peacefully side into a MAGA-themed autocratic state. Not a shot fired. We just shrug and give up. About 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country, leaving Poors like me to fend for themselves.
If such an unlikely thing DID happen, I could see Gen. James “MadDog” Mattis being acting POTUS while we had a Constitutional Convention to push through some MUCH needed structural reforms to our political system.
I think that is specifically what would happen. The crisis of late 2024, early 2025 grows so dire that the there’s a coup, a military junta is established that runs the country for the specific amount of time necessary to hold a Constitutional Convention.
I have to say when that’s your best case scenario for your country, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. We can only hope that this is just yet more hysterical doom shit on my part.
‘Ping’
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m a child of the Cold War, so everything that’s going on in the Middle East right now reminds me of what was going on in the background of The Day After before everything went kabluey.
I’m well aware that I’m prone to “hysterical doom shit,” as this may just be more of the same. But it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine things escalating if Israel struck targets inside of Iran for their involvement in what has been going on.
And Israel is one of a few nuclear powers so, yeah. The whole thing is rather unnerving. I only even suggest any of this because this IS the Middle East we’re talking about and the whole region as been unstable for a long, long time.
What’s more, we have the whole fucking “Fourth Turning” to worry about in the United States at some point between now and early 2025. I still think the whole thing is astrology for dudes, but the point the theory makes is still relevant — it definitely seems as though 2025 Is It.
We’ve collectively, on a global scale, enjoyed peace for too long and a lot of idiots are itching to burn the whole post WW2 global order to the ground. I don’t know what to tell you, folks.
Get ready.
Still Spinning My Wheels In The First Few Chapters of The Third Draft Of My First Novel
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Just as I thought I was going to push into the beginning of the second act of the third draft of my first novel, I made a strategic error — I decided to read over what I had done so far. As always, always happens whenever I do this, I discovered a new, improved way to tell the story to the point that I am rewriting everything all over again.
My heroine kind of looks like this woman in my mind. Sorta. Kinda.
Some of this rewriting was inevitable — I know I can do better and I given that I consider this the THIRD draft of the novel, I feel compelled to make sure I can produce the absolute best quality copy. I hope to show this draft to some sort of professional manuscript consultant and I would rather do the hard work of rewriting now, rather than waiting until the end.
One thing that I really need to work on is fleshing out my characters. They’re getting a lot — A LOT — better, but they’re still not where I want them to be. I keep mulling the idea of maybe yet another attempt at a character study of my main characters so I can get a better sense of who they are.
But I don’t know if I’m prepared to slow the already slow process down THAT much. I do, you know, what to wrap this third draft up soon enough that I can start to query in late 2024. Which, of course, is when I think we might experience the so-called “Fourth Turning.”
Lulz. Good times!
Is It World War 3 Yet?
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
While I seriously doubt this particular “hysterical doom shit” on my part will amount to anything, I am a little bit concerned that if there are two major long-term regional wars going on at the same time that the two events will be linked under the rubric “World War 3.”
What’s more, if the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are joined by a massive clusterfuck in central Africa then, yeah, the nattering nabobs of negativism may start to throw around the term “World War 3” simply because it would be “cool” and an easy way to explain a very complex situation.
Of course, I have long believed that if the “Fourth Turning” really does happen starting in late 2024, early 2025 that we are going to be royally fucked and World War 3 really will break out. That could happen either because the United States pulls out of NATO and South Korea as it becomes an America First MAGA autocratic state or because the USA has descended into civil war or revolution because of “vibes.”
But that’s very speculative hysterical doom shit. It’s possible that somehow we’ll just punt all our problems down the road and nothing will come of any of this.
Should An ‘American’ By Any Other Name Smell As Sweet
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
In yet more proof that “everything is dumb,” I got into something of a prolonged argument on the Twitter clone Pebble with some non-USAians about what to call…,well, people like me.
As is so often the case, it all started when I made a casual remark about something and referred to “Americans” in a way that clearly linked the idea of people from the USA with the word. This made a Spanish-speaking non-American American very upset and I spent a few hours arguing over this fucking dumb issue.
For me, the issue is — fucking Americans, or USAians, save the globe during two world wars and a Cold War, we should be given a pass when it comes to what we call ourselves. But NOOOOOO. It definitely seems as though there are some non-Americans who fucking hate the United States so much that they get really upset when USAians call themselves “American.”
I have to say that jumping down my throat about something so stupid — especially when the USA is careening towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or a civil war / revolution. And, yet, here we are.
I was countered by well-meaning people who wanted us all to hold hands and sing fucking Kumbaya until Americans collectively agreed to take the feelings of everyone outside of the United States into consideration when we referred to ourselves.
Fuck that. It’s never going to happen and anyone who think it will is a fucking moron. It’s a testament to how well-meaning Leftists blather on about something that doesn’t mean shit in real terms just because in some dream world they think they can change things.
What Americans call themselves just isn’t that big a deal, all things considered. Especially given how close the United States is to either MAGA Nazi fascist autocracy or civil war / revolution. UGH. I fucking hate Leftists, sometimes.
Eyes Wide Shut: America Is Careening Towards ‘The Fourth Turning’ & No One Gives A Shit
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It is so curious that America’s lurch towards either MAGA-themed autocracy or civil war / revolution is happening in broad fucking daylight and no one seems very concerned. It’s all rather unsettling.
All I can compared it to is how apparently the Western Roman Empire just kind of gave up in its later years. An air of defeatism took over the collective and at one point it just become a matter of time before some barbarian put the Western Romans out of their misery.
I guess what I’m trying to say is there are some macro historical forces at work when it comes to the United States’ future. I can’t predict the future, so I have no idea what the fuck is going to happen. But, in general, I would posit that Something Big is going to happen in the world’s only hyperpower in late 2024, early 2025.
What that “Something Big” event might be….I just don’t know.
But, in general, all the conditions are there for a political event at least equal to WW2, if not the French Revolution. Something — whatever it is — that fundamentally changes not just American culture, but that of the entire world. It’s going to be scary and disruptive and there won’t be any ready endgame while it’s happening.
Good luck.
‘Hysterical (Speculative) Doom Shit:’ We’re In A DL Presidential Succession Crisis
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I am prone to think up the most fucked up political scenarios and I’ve come up a new one. At the moment, we have an “acting” Speaker of the House. My question is — if the absolute worst happened, would Rep. Patrick McHenry be in the line of presidential succession? Or would it go directly to the Senate’s President Pro Temp?
The fact that that is not know for a fact one way or another is very unnerving. I remember how Al Haig made an ass out of himself after Reagan was shot by saying, “I am in charge,” even though he clearly wasn’t.
The only reason why I even bring it up is the longer we’re in this fucking up situation, the more likely it is that Something Bad might happen that would force the issue. And the last thing you want in a crisis situation is the massive uncertainty of who the fuck the president is.
And that doesn’t even begin to address the lingering issue of no one has challenged the Presidential Succession Act. I just don’t like the idea that America could be in some massive, earth shattering crisis and rather than address the issue at hand, we’ll all have to collective sit on our hands while we figure out if McHenry is POTUS or not.
Anyway, this is just more of my usual “hysterical doom shit.” Move along, there’s nothing to see here.
Pondering The Potential Impact of Google’s Coming Gemini AI
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It definitely seems as though the next 18 months may be pretty fucking historic on both a technological and political basis. On the tech side, Google is set to release a new AI called Gemini. Given how impressive today’s first generation AI is, I’m a bit unnerved by what Gemini may bring.
It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the year when AI reaches the “just good enough” stage. This means we’ll be one severe recession away from the entire knowledge economy being upended and transformed. It could be that the 2024 presidential cycle will be the first time we start to take the notion of Universal Basic Income seriously.
I’m coming to believe that UBI is inevitable — a lot sooner than anyone might think. But I also think it will come at a price — probably all taxes will be replaced by a 30% VAT. Also, I think we’ll pay for a UBI by taxing the economic output of non-human actors.
If Gemini is anywhere near as powerful as is suggested, then we are probably in for some severe economic and social upheaval just as we careen towards the “Fourth Turning” of late 2024, early 2025.
I continue to believe that it’s at least possible that neo-Ludditism is the next logical evolution of MAGA. It makes a lot of sense if even blue collar jobs are not spared by AI. I suspect that soon enough something akin to androids will begin to take all the service jobs that aren’t knowledge economy jobs being taken by LLMs.
Regardless, things are very much up the air.
Worried About A Blind Item
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I only think about this again because the Speaker of the House spot is vacant for the time being. But there was a blind item on Tik-Tok some time ago that suggested there might be a sex tape of VP Harris getting it on with talk show host Montel.
That is all a bunch of smoke and mirrors at the moment, but I think it was Lenin who said a week sometimes has a the news of a decade crammed all into it all at once at times. So, imagine Biden shuffles off this mortal coil, Harris becomes POTUS and a sex tape leaks out and she has to resign.
Who would become POTUS at this point? Do we know? I guess it would be the president pro temp of the Senate, but I sure don’t like not knowing 100%.
Anyway, I’m sure I’m overthinking things and everything is going to work out just fine.
Right….Right????
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