So. It definitely seems as though we may have about a year before the United States either slips peacefully into autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.) Yes, I suppose it’s possible that some sort of third way might happen whereby Biden wins and that breaks the back of MAGA, but….oh boy. Not putting a lot of hope in that one.
All the macro signs at the moment point to Trump winning in 2024 and, soon, enough, the entire post-WW2 global world order is thrown up in the air. And that’s just internationally. Domestically, the United States will become a white theocratic ethnostate, probably as the result of a Constitutional Convention that puts MAGA enabling acts into the Constitution.
Or, put another way, the issue is how bad are things going to get? I mean, my fears of catastrophe are growing so serious that I’m thinking about the need to buy a Ham radio. Because if things really go tits up, communication will be something that we will be sorely lacking.
But, to date, I’m more interested in working on my novel to worry about something so dark. If that changes, then, well, there you go.
Because of how, collectively, Americans are a pretty laid back bunch, I struggle to imagine a situation where there might be any sort of mass revolt against Tyrant Trump should he win a second term. Because of his age, Trump will be seen as a transitional figure, with the result being whomever his successor is being the person who finally throttles our dying democracy.
And, really, much like how Augustus was able to transition the Roman Republic into an Empire, as long as Trump and his immediate successor don’t touch the First Amendment, they should be fine. Even if elections are meaningless, as along as Americans feel as though they can bitch and moan about what’s going on around them, there won’t be any problems in the streets.
But this is Trump we’re talking about.
Trump loves, loves, loves, to besmirch anything and everything that is considered sacred, so it may be almost inevitable that soon enough, Trump will start to attack some pretty basic Constitutional rights. Ironically enough, as long as he doesn’t touch the Second Amendment, his supporters will lulz our descent into a Russian-style autocracy.
But we have to accept that Trump’s second term will not only be one based on revenge, but also will take all the parts we hated about the first term to the next level. So much so, that the entire post-WW2 global liberal order will be thrown up in the air to the point that a full blown WW3 might break out because America pulls out of NATO and South Korea. What’s more, as all of this is happening, a good 1 million smug wealthy liberals will flee the country — at a minimum.
I still, however, struggle to imagine a scenario whereby there might some sort of Glorious Revolution on the part of Blues that might involve a General Strike and that kind of thing. Americans are just too complacent to do such a thing.
The only reason why I even keep writing about this issue is there are some macro trends at work that are extremely alarming. One of America’s two major political parties is now fascist and only see elections as valid if they win them. But I can’t predict the future. Maybe “Mueller, She Wrote” is right and somehow MAGA will evaporate into the mists of political history and everything will work out because some court ruling saves us from ourselves.
One of my personality quirks is I like to make my many abstract fears concrete. As such, here are various absolute-worst-case-scenarios when it comes to Biden shuffling off this mortal coil.
It happens after January 20th, 2025 I don’t want it to happen at all, but if it DID happen, the best time for it happen for the country would be at some point during Biden’s second term. There is a specific set of events that would happen and after a proper amount of grief, the country could go back to tearing itself apart.
It happens sooner rather than later If Biden shuffles off this mortal coil this late in the 2024 POTUS election cycle, then everything gets thrown up in the air. Chaos would descend upon the land. And, what’s worse, we STILL wouldn’t know if acting Speaker McHenry could become POTUS. And given how tense the country is, if there is some question as to if a Red Speaker of the House or a Blue Senate President Pro Temp was going to be POTUS, well, that’s a recipe for disaster. For that to happen, something really bad would have to happen, but the stakes would be so high that you know MAGA would figure out a way to force the issue one way or another.
It happens later rather than sooner If such a horrible thing happens a lot later, but before, say, ballets are printed, then chaos would erupt. The key thing would be, such a horrible thing happening would make the 2024 Democratic Convention a sight to see because there would be a massive struggle over who the nominee would be.
He lingers Another really bad scenario would be something happens such that the 25 Amendment has to be invoked. This horrible situation would also cause mass chaos because of how the country is tearing itself apart.
It happens between Election Day and Certification Day The absolute worst situation would be Biden shuffles off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day. It’s happened once — as part of the election of 1872 — and the solution they used, with the dearly departed’s Electoral votes being dispersed to the living candidates doesn’t seem like a viable option in the modern era. I just don’t know what to tell you in that situation. I don’t think it would cause a civil war, but it would definitely be a “Not great, Bob,” situation.
When the history of this era of American history is written, the fate of one Mike Pence will be worth a few books. Given how “the Resistance” has accepted Liz Chaney with open arms, if Pence had a Road-to-Damascus moment and actually stood for some of the values he professes to believe and started hating on Trump, his life would be A LOT better.
I can’t promise you he’d ever be POTUS, but Pence’s political influence would increase dramatically if he became a Liz Chaney-like figure. If became something akin to a modern-day War Democrat, Pence would be on CNN and MSNBC a great deal. Hell, he might even get a show on one of those channels.
But, no. Pence is such a weak-willed weasel that he can not, will not do something so dramatic. It’s all sort of sad. The next speed bump that Pence is going to have to go over is what he’s going to do in late 2024, early 2025 should the country completely collapse.
Even if the country doesn’t collapse, given how Pence refused to do the one thing that might have kept Trump in office, you have to wonder if Trump goes full-tyrant on the American people that Pence might, at last, have his nuts descend and find his manhood.
I have my doubts, however. It definitively seems as though Pence has decided to simply fade away into political oblivion.
It seems as though within 18 months, we may very well literally live in the world of the movie “Her,” with the world of “Ex Machina” not being far behind. The issue, of course, is are we ready for both a political crisis and a technological “Petite Singularity” happening at about the same time.
It also makes me wonder if it’s inevitable for MAGA to transition into a neo-Luddite movement. It would make a lot of sense for this to happen because a lot of the people who would be the most disrupted by a sudden lurch into the future would be, well, MAGA people.
I also think that 2024 will be the first presidential cycle whereby a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious policy issue. Of course, to get it, we’re probably going to have to have a 30% VAT and tax the economic activity of non-human actors.
I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what is going to happen. But I am both concerned and intrigued. A part of me believes that much like a WW3 paused a lot of consumer technological development, so, too, will the Fourth Turning / WW3. We may be so busy bombing ourselves into oblivion that we just don’t have the mental energy to do anything with AI.
But once we sort out what post WW3 world order will be, the, yeah, I could see us zooming towards some pretty cool, pretty exotic technological developments.
One thing that is looming large in my mind is the idea that by framing the future of the United States the way I do, that I’m in, in essence, making it more likely that my fears will come true.
The option that I don’t think about very much is the one advocated by “Mueller, She Wrote.” She posits that lulz, a combination of the weight of the courts and Trump losing all the time politically will somehow “save us” from ourselves. Given that I can’t predict the future, I suppose that’s a real possibilty.
It could be that that is exactly what is going to happen and I’ve been worried over nothing.
Someone on Bluesky went so far as to suggest that by me navel gazing in such a hysterical doom shit way, that I am actually making it MORE LIKELY that my fears will come true.
This has given me pause for thought.
I can’t predict the future. I just don’t know. I really don’t. I’m just extremely uneasy about the next 18 months.
One of my favorite novels growing up was Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. The biggest problem I had with it — even as a young man — was the scenario totally glossed over what the domestic reaction to WW3 would be. With that in mind, let’s imagine that the wars going on at the moment fused together and became WW3.
The nation that connects Ukraine and Israel is Russia. If what’s going on between Israel and Hamas escalates, it would be Russia that could potentially link the two wars.
It would go something like this. Hezbollah strikes Israel from the north at the direction of Iran. Things grow so bad that Israel feels an existential threat and the nuke the capital of Hezbollah’s patron, Iran. Once Teheran is rubble, the 75-year old taboo against using nukes would end and Russia might feel emboldened to nuke Ukraine.
Once this happens, it is easy to imagine China going after Taiwan and the DPRK going after the ROK. Throw in India and Pakistan nuking each other while central Africa goes at it and you have WW3.
It makes you wonder if WW3 would be enough to unite the extremely divided United States. I have my doubts. The problems with the United States at the moment are macro and existential. I don’t even think a world war could unite America at this point.
We are very, very fucked.
It’s really just a matter of what bad thing happens.
Anyway, I don’t know if the American press would be able to handle an actual WW3. It would be a very interesting situation, however. Once the initial freak out faded, I think America would probably go back to the same old Blue-Vs-Red political war that we’ve been experiencing for some time now.
One issue would be if the Draft came back or not. That would be something that would catch the attention of the average person to the point that WW3 wouldn’t just be “over there.”
I continue to be pleased with the state of the first act of the third draft of my homage to Stieg Larsson. It’s its on thing, but I definitely want this novel and the planned series it’s meant to be the beginning of to be an old brown shoe to be people who are fans of the original Millennium series.
I’m reaching a point where I have to stop being so hard on myself and just wrap the first act up so I can get into the rest of the novel. I’m getting there, but it’s slow going. I’m feeling a little insecure because not only am I not going to live forever, but I’ve been in a rather idyllic state of affairs for way too long and something is bound to happen soon enough that changes everything.
What’s more, the issue of the so-called “Fourth Turning” starting in late 2024, early 2025 is looming large in my mind these days. My fear is just as I’m getting serious about querying, civilization will collapse or some similar bullshit. But I suppose if the most likely thing happens — which is we slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, the overarching sentiment of the series, which is how much I fucking hate MAGA, will grow far more timely.
Of course, I could find myself wrapping up the last novel in the six novel project outside of the United States as a political refugee. Ugh.
So much could still go wrong at this point. But, sometimes, you just have to believe.
I have a very conservative relative — whom I love dearly — who is a part of the non-MAGA conservative base of the Republican Party. He hates Trump, even though he voted for him the second time. The last time I talked to him, he made it clear that he hates the “liberal agenda” so much that he will vote for Trump AGAIN if he wins the nomination in 2024.
Another interesting element to our discussion is how angry he still is over what happened with COVID. I keep telling him that the average person just doesn’t care anymore, but that doesn’t stop him from ranting about how the government lied and did a lot of unnecessary damage. He is very curious in the candidacy of RFK, Jr. because of this.
Just from my conversation with him, it seems clear that Trump is going to win in 2024. At least it seems so at the moment. The differences between Red and Blue have grown so extreme that people like my relative — who in the past were strong believers in traditional American democracy — now are willing to sell their birthright to a malignant fascist ding-dong like Trump just so they can “own the libs.”
As such, I think we need to start to prepare for a rather dystopian future starting in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that Trump is so astonishingly tyrannical starting in 2025 that the U.S. Military does the unimaginable — it steps in and deposes Trump.
Or maybe not. I just can’t predict the future. But it definitely SEEMS like we’re heading towards some rather major historic event within the next 18 months.
America is an unsettled place at the moment. We all sense that we’re careening towards a dark future, a momentous event of some sort that would start within the next 18 months.
But there are a lot of theories about what we should compare modern American to. Some people point to the collapse of the multi-ethnic Austro-Hungarian Empire at the end of WW1, while people like me see a closer analogy to the state of affairs with the French Ancien Regime in the days leading up to the French Revolution.
I just don’t see a comparison to the Austro-Hungarian Empire being adequate to explain what’s going on in the United States at the moment. The Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed because it was a bunch of small nations fused together. The United States, meanwhile, has a very clear sense of national unified national identity that is being frayed by a combination of a growing sense of white nationalism and more economic agency for women.
I do think that we face not one, but three main possible futures starting in late 2024, early 2025.
The first, most obvious, option is we peacefully slide into some sort of MAGA-themed autocracy. About 1 million smug, wealthy liberals leave the country and there is a total re-alignment of the post WW2 liberal global order as the United States leaves NATO and South Korea and forms an alliance with Russia, Turkey and Hungary.
The second, less likely option is Biden wins and Trump, in an effort to avoid going to prison, freaks the fuck out and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce. The country implodes into civil war. WW3 happens in conjunction with this and about 1 billion people die.
The third, far less likely option is a French Revolution type situation when Trump’s tyrannical, erratic behavior grows so unbearable to enough people that there is some sort of collective uprising against MAGA. The country breaks apart, but only in conjunction with the broader effort on the part of Blues to re-unite the country under a Third Republic. All of this might happen in the context of the U.S. Military stepping in at some point, as well.
But, in general, the issue is a number of macro trends are all heading to a conclusion around the same point in the future. What’s more it’s possible that we may be heading towards something akin to a “Petite Singularity” that would involve AI eliminating an unpreceded number of jobs a very short amount of time.
All of this is, of course, very speculative. Anything can happen in the future. I totally misjudged what happend with Trump in 2020. I can’t predict the future, but that doesn’t stop me from being….alarmed.
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