Category: Cold Civil War

There Is A Real Risk Of Civil War If Trump Loses In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see Trump losing in 2024. At this point, it seems an immutable force of American political history that Trump wins in 2024 and he — and his immediate successor — transition the United States into a Russia-like autocracy.

And, yet, I suppose it’s at least possible that Trump might lose in 2024. It’s highly unlikely, but it’s possible.

The thing we have to begin to game out is what Trump would do if that did, in fact, happen. What I think would happen is Trump would freak the fuck out and he would begin to thrash about, spinning his usual bullshit. He would be so upset at the prospect of going to prison that he might begin to rant about how Red States need to leave the Union.

As such, I could totally see it being a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state would call up a Secessionist Convention first.

Now, any talk of a National Divorce — which would lead to a civil war — is complicated by a number of things, chief amongst them being race. The idea of Southern states leaving the Union might make white good old boys feel good about the South, at last, “rising again,” but it would alarm the African American community a great deal.

So, I don’t know. It’s a very peculiar situation. Even Texas, which is shifting Blue long-term, might simply collapse into an intra-state civil war if there was any serious attempt to leave the Union. As such, the states to actually successfully call a secessionist convention might be the very white, low population states of the Rocky Mountain area.

Or, put another way, the whole thing would be a clusterufck becuase it just wouldn’t be as simple as the secessionists might otherwise believe. It would all be very, very messy and tragic. A lot of people would die for no damn reason and it’s likely the greatest country in human history would wilfully reduce itself to rubble.

Like I said — I just don’t see Trump losing in 2024. So, lulz, welcome to autocracy!

The Die Is Cast

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one is going to save us when it comes to Trump and MAGA. On a macro basis, the die is cast. Or, put another way, now that all of the expected indictments of Trump have been handed down, we’re a lot closer to knowing the dynamic going into the 2024 election.

Trump is an avatar, a vessel for the MAGA fascist rage over not just the browning of America and the growing economic agency of women, but nothing more than just “vibes.” So, barring something I can’t predict, Trump will see being elected as his only way to avoid going to prison.

I still believe that Trump is going to win in 2024 and we’ll just slide peacefully into autocracy. That will be that. I just don’t see Blues having the spunk to do anything about a lurch into autocracy. Too many Blues have second passports they have through their refugee grandparents. They’re cowards with the means, motive and opportunity to flee the country when autocracy comes to America. Rather than any sort of “Resistance Revolution” in late 2024, early 2025, a least 1 million wealthy, smug Blues will leave the country starting Election Day 2024.

And, yet, if Trump does lose, there is a real risk that in a hysterical bid to avoid prison time, Trump could begin to demand that Red States leave the Union. Then we have a National Divorce — a civil war. There probably would be a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state will be the first to secede after a Secessionist Convention.

Any attempt at a National Divorce would be very, very messy. There are a lots of Reds in Blue State and a lot of Blues in Red States. And, that doesn’t even mention the racial element of all of this. If there was a National Divorce at Trump’s behest, there is a greater-than-zero sum chance of a race war in the South.

On a personal basis, my own state of Virginia is two states fused together that hate each other. If there was a National Divorce, it would be states like Virginia that would implode into intra-state civil war because the two parts of the state are just too hostile towards each other.

Witness Tampering Is Not Cool

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet another example of Trump bending the rule of law to his will, he’s now witness tampering in a rather brazen manner (see above.) The fact that ding-dong could very well get away with it is yet another indication of how America has a very Weimar Republic vibe to it at the moment.

As I’ve said before a number of times, things are growing so dire at the moment that we have to prepare for Something Bad to happen in late 2024, early 2025. There just doesn’t seem any way that we’re going to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.

Late 2024, early 2025 will be it. We’re either going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues.) I suppose there is some “third way” that will allow us to avoid such catastrophes, but I have my doubts.

But I can’t predict the future — nobody can — so I guess it’s at least possible something extraordinary might happen to prevent the so-called “Fourth Turning” from happening.

And, yet, on a superficial basis, all the signs are that there we’re pretty much fucked. There’s either a National Divorce, a founding of a Third American Republic or we slide into a Russian-style autocracy. The irony of this is, of course, is when things grow existential the so-called “woke” era will fade away.

Rather than worrying about how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin, people are going to worry about if they live in a state that is in align with their political views. Or if their neighbor is going to attack them for the same thing.

And if things get that dire, it’s going to happen really, really fast. Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war or provoke a revolution. As such, there is a better-than-even chance that Trump might be seen as one of the most significant political figures in American history.

The Thing I Can’t Game Out About Late 2024 – Early 2025.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is one known unknown that I just can’t predict when it comes to what might happen in late 2024 – early 2025. And that is, of course, the issue of how far the two sides are willing to take things if they don’t get what they want. On paper, there definitely seems to be a greater-than-zero sum chance that we’re either going to have a civil war or a revolution.

So, I just don’t know. I just don’t know if all my “hysterical doom shit” about civil or revolution has any basis in what might actually happen. At the moment, it definitely seems bonkers to even suggest that a nation like the United States might buckle and collapse into civil war or revolution.

And, for the moment, I honestly have no way of knowing one way or another if my fears are right. But from my reading about the Antebellum period of the late 1850s, there are definitely a lot of similar macro trends taking place these days that suggestion that Something Bad is at least possible.

But, at the moment, it really could be that I’m getting myself worked up for no reason. We could just punt our problems down the road another four years, or we could slide peacefully into autocracy.

I just don’t know.

Are We Going To Have a Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin, yet again, by saying I can’t predict the future. But one thing is clear, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the most significant in American political history since 1860. I say this because there seem to be a number of pretty dramatic outcomes in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens.

Before I talk about how a civil war might start, I would like to note that we’re still too far out. There are too many known unknowns that could still allow us to, much like 2020, to punt some severe political and structural problems in American society down the road another four years.

But let’s address the issue at hand — could the United States have a civil war?

The key thing to note is I’m choosing my words carefully. The scenario I’m laying out is one in which a National Divorce becomes a civil war. At the moment, there is only one way where I see us having a civil war — ding-dong Trump somehow manages to lose or “not win” the 2024 election.

Now, this is where I have to hone into a specific issue that is sometimes missed by talking heads on TV. Trump is so vainglorious, so dumb and oblivious to the impact of his words that he could accidently, on purpose, unto himself cause a civil war out of pure self-preservation.

Here’s how I think it would happen.

Soon after it becomes clear that Trump has magically lost the 2024 election, he will ratchet up the hysterical political rhetoric. The prospect of going to jail will have a way of focusing Trump’s mind and he might even go transactional and begin to rant in very specific terms about how it’s time for a National Divorce. Maybe. Something like that.

And this would be the moment of truth for MAGA. They would have to put up or shut up in regards to their belief that the Deep State is out to get them. And it’s clear to me that if there was a civil war, it would begin at the state level. Soon after Election Day, states like Texas and South Carolina, will begin to call up Secessionist Conventions to take up the issue of leaving Union.

This will not happen in a vacuum. The reason why any National Divorce will, by definition, be very messy, is a lot of Red States have a lot of Blues living in them. And there are also states like Virginia which are actually one Red state and one Blue state fused together who hate each other with a passion.

So, as the country begin to cleve into Red and Blue once and for all there will be a massive amount dometic political refugees will be generated. And it’s this specific issue that I think would indicate shit was really going down. If millions of people freaked out and felt they were no longer safe because their personal political views did not fit that of their home state, well, get ready.

This is just the beginning of a potential clusterfuck.

If the United States implodes then there is every reason to believe that WW3 will erupt as a number of simering regional conflicts get hot really fast. And, what’s more, there is always the risk that the DPRK will lob a few H-bombs our way just to be a dick.

And, remember, history has it happens has no narrative. It’s not until everything is wrapped up that we look back and think this or that outcome was “inevitable.” So, it’s just as possible that some sort of Trumplandia will successfully come into existence as it is that the “good guys” will win.

I continue to believe that all signs point to Trump winning and the United States peacefully slouching towards a Russian-style autocracy.

All The Conditions Exist For A Catastrophe In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that seems to elude most American political observers — except for Frank Luntz of all people — is the rise of Trump is a symptom of severe, existential structural problems with the United States. The Cult of Trump is based the “economic insecurity” of white people who are in love with the “idea” of Trump.

White (male) Christians can feel cultural and political power slipping away from them and, as such, they see ding-dong Trump as an avatar, a vessel for their rage. At this point, their attachment to Trump is so white hot, so absolute that there is literally nothing the man could do that would lessen their affinity for him.

With all of this in mind, the thing I’m worry about is what happens if something amazing happens and Trump actually manages to lose the 2024 election. Way too many people who should know better seem to think we’ll just dust ourselves off and wait until the next presidential election.

America, the sole hyperpower in the world, seems primed and ready for a National Divorce if Trump loses and a “Resistance Revolution” if he wins. All of this is on a macro scale. And, as I’ve mentioned before, the issue how willing each side is actually willing to pull the trigger if they feel they have no recourse but to turn to political violence.

I hate violence, but I’m growing more and more alarmed that America faces something of a spectrum. On one end, we have a Blue Revolution because Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues manage to find their guts and do something about it and on the other end of the spectrum Reds grow enraged when Trump loses and they start to pull out of the Union.

There is a lot I just can’t game out.

There are too many known unknowns. As I keep saying, the old adage is one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once. And so SOMETHING is going to happen as a part of the 2024 election. I just don’t know what. I suppose it’s possible that we might punt our problems down the road another four years like we did in 2020, but I have serious doubts.

It seems as though we either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) I continue to believe that we’re just going to slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi autocratic state. The people who might spearhead any sort of “Blue Revolution” will be too busy using their second passports to flee to Europe to worry about us Poors who will be stuck with a weaponized ICE.

But, again. I just don’t know. It really could go either way at this point.

Well, I’ve At Least Come Up With An Interesting Heroine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After years of dwelling on the nature of my heroine, I feel as though I’ve finally managed to come up with a woman who is really, really unique. Because I continue to do all of this in a vacuum, I am at a loss as to what people’s reaction to her might be.

My heroine of my first novel looks like a younger version of Nicole Scherzinger

Remember, by definition, because I’m a smelly CIS white male there will be members of the woke cancel culture mob who dismiss my right to tell the story I want to tell. I’m supposed to just stick to writing from a male POV and otherwise shut up. This happens, of course, in the context of “intersectional feminists” complaining about not enough representation in fiction.

In fact, I listened to an entire Slate podcast where two women were angry about how not enough women, POC and LGBTQ+ people were in positions of power in Hollywood. That’s all well and good and I validate those concerns, but I found myself growing a little insecure — what if a CIS white male like me makes a good faith effort to tell a story about a POC woman?

Is that “representation” or is that “exploitive appropriation?”

I am really self-conscious about that potential criticism being lobbed at me. But it’s too late now. I had no idea of the cultural minefield I was wondering into when I decided I wanted my heroine to be a POC. And, what’s more, I only relatively recently realized there was some sort of woke taboo against against a man writing from a female POV.

Ugh.

But, having said all that, I do think I’ve come up with not one but TWO heroines (over the course of six novels) who are just as interesting, in their own way, as Lisbeth Salander. In the end, you just can’t please everyone, especially not members of the woke cancel culture mob who have all these weird ideological demands for any art they consume.

Things Are Going Well With The Third Draft (So Far)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have figure out a way to really flesh out the characters I’ve come up with while also dramatically improving the world building. I’ve added a number of scenes at the beginning of the novel. And, yet, there is a looming problem in my mind– not a lot goes on in these new scenes.

The idea of doing this, of course, is to lean into the characters I’ve come up with to the point that when something DOES happen, you care enough, are engaged enough that you want to find out what happens to them. I’m just a little nervous that a lot of people won’t be patient and will think the novel is “boring.”

And, yet, if you read The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo the first 135 pages are dull as dirt. It’s a lot of dry exposition that really doesn’t seem to have much point. It’s amazing, in my mind, that the novel became as popular as it did given such a massive obstacle.

But I’m pleased with what I’ve come up with. I’m really struggling to make the additional scenes as thought provoking and provocative, even if, in real terms, not a lot goes on. So, I hope that people are so busy reading these early, though provoking scenes that they excuse the lack of action.

I continue to have no idea what I’m doing, so who knows. It could be I’ve stumbled across a winning formula or it could be that I’m going to ultimately have to cut all these additional scenes at the behest of an editor. But that is a ways down the road.

I therefore just have to be content that things are going as well as they are. I’m kind of an in an idyllic situation when it comes to writing a novel and given that all good things must come to an end, it’s inevitable that that is just what will happen. I’m grateful for the opportunity I’ve had while it lasts.

Donald Trump Needs To Go To Jail (But)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump continues to bend the very fabric of America society, politics and law to his idiotic, asinine will. For my part, I’m just pleased that Trump has found himself in a shit ton of legal trouble, even if politically he’s still riding high. I continue to believe America has, on a macro sale, given up. We’re careening towards a historic, existential choice in 2024 one that will either see us turn into an autocracy or have a civil war / revolution.

I know that sounds like hysterical doom shit, but I struggle to imagine how we manage to punt some severe, structural problems down the road another four years. But, I suppose, it’s possible.

I do find myself thinking a lot these days about what would happen Trump was thrown in jail for violating the terms of his release while awaiting trial. On one hand, doing so would finally force some accountability on ding-dong Trump. On the other, however, I fear that doing so would only give Trump even more political momentum.

It’s a very tricky situation with no ready answer.

And it all plays into what a dire situation we find ourselves in as a nation. I continue to contemplate how likely it is we may have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) depending on who wins the 2024 election. At the moment, it seems we’re just going to slip peaceful into a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

But 2024 is still too far out. There some basic things we just don’t know. We don’t know who the two nominees will be and we don’t know how far along the numerous Trump trials will be as we’re heading to the polls. And, what’s more, we also don’t know things like how the economy or Biden’s age might factor in.

So, it seems as though we’re just going to have to wait and see. There’s no much we can do but just wait to see if my worst fears come true, or if we somehow manage to avoid them.

I’m Really Struggling With The Specifics Of My Heroine’s Appearance

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. I know, in general, my heroine’s phenotype, but when it comes to her hair I’m having a real struggle. There is so much I can do with what she does with her hair that I find myself at a loss as to what I think would be the best option.

I vacillate widely from moment to the next about how she does her hair as the story opens. In this third draft, I’m really taking how I introduce my heroine a lot more seriously. I don’t want to sexualize her in any sort of gratuitous way because if I did anything like that there would be “woke” portions of the audience that would that would pitch a fucking fit.

They would say I’m just another horny CIS white male who is wants to fuck my heroine and is obsessed with boobs. As such, I am really self-conscious about how much I talk about my heroine’s appearance. And, yet, at the same time, I want to give readers a clear understanding in their mind’s eye of…her appearance.

My heroine kind of looks like this in my mind’s eye.

As a CIS white male writing from the POV of a female POC it’s kind of a no win situation. Woke people just want me to drop dead, not try to give them the representation they claim to want in their fiction. Only transgender, undocumented Mexicans can tell the type of stories I want to tell. Forgive me, I’m a bit grumpy and tipsy at the moment.

Anyway, you have to give me credit for at least understanding the sticky wicket I’m wading into. I get it. I’m a CIS white male, a member of the patriarchy and I should just shut up and let women and POC tell stories. But I’m an asshole and have a story to tell.

I’m trying to be as empathetic as possible, all things considered.