Category: Cold Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have yet again had an opportunity to have an impromptu focus group with my conservative relatives. And I’m very, very alarmed for the state of our American birthright, our democracy. The key element is the my Traditionalist conservatives, who would otherwise be the cornerstone, the bedrock of a stable liberal democracy are now primed and ready to be the same for fascist MAGA autocracy.

Here’s why — Traditionalist conservatives simply can not, will not unite with the center-Left to protect our democracy. And because of that, rather than even having an opinion when it’s factually proven that MAGA is in the wrong, they just throw up their hands and say, “both sides.”

By “bothsidesing” things, they are actually complicit in collapse of our democracy. When they tune out from political debate because they don’t want to agree with the center-Left, the fucking autocratic fascist MAGA cocksuckers win.

In short, Traditionalists who “bothsides” things are one step away from being “Good Germans,” or, in this case, “Good Americans.” And they will sit on their hands when ICE is weaponized and there’s a Constitutional Convention that will pass the modern MAGA version of the Nazi Enabling Acts.

And, of course, the issue is that they will be Good Americans until it gets personal. So, for my Traditionalist conservative relatives, the rise of autocracy is an abstract convenience. They won’t have to worry about being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob,” but for ME, the end of American democracy is very concrete in the sense that I’m inevitably going to cross the autocrat because of my drunk big mouth.

Anyway, they key is — be prepared for the United States to transition into autocracy. The other two options — civil war or military junta — aren’t that great either. It will be interesting to see which of the three options we endup doing.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet another sign that the United States is not only a failed state, but a political powder keg, we find ourselves in the curious situation where Stephen Colbert of all people is a lightning rod for MAGA Republicans. They say he’s not funny, which is demonstrably not true.

But the fact that Colbert has joined Dr. Tony Fauci as the whipping boy of the Right is both weird an ominous. The fact that given the choice of the astonishingly horrible Gutfeld! and Colbert the Right would rather watch Gutfeld! is a very dark sign for the future of the country.

The situation with Colbert is yet another sign that the country is tearing itself apart — the country can not continue to be dominated by a crazed minority of MAGA cocksuckers. There is going to come a point when either Blues bend a knee to MAGA-themed fascism or they are pushed out of the Union by Reds. The question at this point is simply a matter of specifics and logistics.

The country is so partisan and MAGA is so consumed by various Big Lies that as far as I can tell the U.S. Military is the only major American institution that hasn’t been destroyed by the forces of division. This is the case to the point that there is a small chance that instead of autocracy or civil war, the U.S. may be governed by some sort of military junta in a last ditch effort to prevent us from killing each other for political reasons.

But, as I keep saying, while my gut tells me Something Big is going to happen between now and, say, spring 2025…I just can’t game out what is it. It’s things like what’s going on with Colbert that are pings from a very, very dark and troubled future. If a nation like the U.S. can’t even agree on what to laugh at, then I don’t know what to tell you.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I get how Reds think that Blues are smug and condescending. Ok, I get it. But what I don’t get is why Reds continue to feel so oppressed and disenfranchised when it’s self-evident that MAGA is politically ascendant.

MAGA is ascendant to the point that at some time between now and January 2025, Blues are going to face the existential choice of bending a knee to MAGA-themed autocracy or not. If they don’t then their only choice will be to serve papers on a National Divorce and to initiate a Second American Civil War.

At the moment, I don’t think we’re going to have a 2ACW because, well, lulz, Blues just don’t have it in them. Even though they’re a majority of Americans, they are too divided, too busy bitching and moaning about trigger warnings, micro aggressions, and how many genders can dance on the head of a pin to address the cold hard facts

America is careening towards autocracy and unless Blues are willing to leave the Union to keep their freedoms, then, well, lulz. MAGA Republicans are inevitably going to gain power and when they do, that’s it. We will be an autocracy with the only question being if we are going to settle somewhere around Hungary and Turkey or Russia and Nazi Germany.

At the moment, I just don’t know. It’s too difficult to game out the exact nature of our coming autocracy. But I do know that at a minimum 1 million wealthy liberals will leave the country starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Blues are simply going to give up.

Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. And plenty of things could happen to negate all my hysterical predictions. I got 2020 – 2021 wrong (for the most part) because I not only totally overestimated Trump, but there was a pandemic. Something similar could happen.

But if you just look at macro trends, the United States is pretty much fucked. Republicans are fascists and Blues are simply too divided and ineffectual to do anything about it. I continue to be amazed by the Republicans I know who simply can not stop conflating the growing hard power of MAGA Republicans with the very soft power of Blues.

So, essentially, Reds want to end American democracy because Blues make them feel bad. As such, this makes Reds want to “own” the libs to the point that they’re willing to burn the whole country to the ground to prove their point.

There are no easy answers in a country that seems to only expect them.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The point of MAGA Republicans going all-in with their bullshit conspiracy theory about the attack against Paul Pelosi is first it gives them political cover and two it gives them a running “joke” they can pivot to whenever they find themselves in a rhetorical corner.

That this would happen is a no brainer, given that the January 6th Insurrection — which should be considered the domestic political equivalent of 9/11 — is now pretty much a lulz for your average MAGA Republican. They cherrypick from January 6th what helps them and conflate, both-sides and muddle anything that doesn’t.

This is just another ping from a very, very dark future. The Right has built out not only an extensive permission structure when it comes to fascism, but also an entire dreamland where they’re some sort of oppressed minority that has to struggle against the all-powerful forces of the “woke cancel culture mob.” They continue to believe this despite how their actual hard power in the real world continues to grow and grow.

If anything, Reds risk pushing out the majority from the Union. There is at least a small chance that Blues — the national majority on a political basis — will grow so fed up with the rise of MAGA-themed fascism that they serve papers on a National Divorce, which causes a Second American Civil War.

I have my doubts about that, however.

What’s more likely to happen is we slide peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. Gradually at first, then faster and faster, basic freedoms that we have enjoyed in the United States for 240 odd years will evaporate. There will be Enabling Acts that are pushed through via a MAGA-lead Constitutional Convention

And it’s bullshit like the MAGA fever dream conspiracy about what happened to Paul Pelosi that fits in with that rather dystopian prediction.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Should a Second American Civil War happened — which I don’t think it will — it will happen for the central reason of Reds not believing the United States is a democracy.

I say this because up until recently, it was just generally assumed that the United States was a free country, a democracy. And it hasn’t been until the country began to tear itself apart as MAGA came into existence that even something as basic as America’s democratic birthright became a partisan issue.

As such, barring something I simply can’t predict, if there is a Second American Civil War, it will begin in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that MAGA is going to throttled what’s left of our democracy once and for all. This will happen either because MAGA Republicans win fair and square and their incoming policies are so radical and autocratic that Blues refuse to bend a knee to fascism, or MAGA loses and brazenly steals the 2024 election through brazen post-election shinagnans.

At the moment, I just don’t think Blues have it in them to demand a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025. Rather than leave the Union, Blues will just give up. About 1 million wealthy liberals will flee the country — vote with their feet – and America will lurch forward into a very dark future of a MAGA-themed autocracy.

Nothing may change at first, but soon enough Trump — or whomever — will demand MAGA be codified into the Constitution via a Constitutional Convention and the America will become, if we’re lucky, a clone of Hungary or Turkey, and if we’re not, a clone of Russia or Nazi Germany.

There is, of course, a small possibility that the U.S. Military will step in at some point while all of this is going on and instead of going straight into autocracy or civil war, we’ll be ruled by a military junta.

I love a good scenario, so if you want my hot take on how the Secessionist Crisis of 2024 – 2025 would go down, it would be something like this. The first indication that things were going to be different would be that local MAGA controlled election boards in swing states would simply not do their job. They would balk at certifying the election of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.

The reason why this is so important to what happens next is would introduce a level of uncertainty into the process that could easily be exploited by because so much of the Federal bench is now made up of young MAGA hacks who will do the bidding of MAGA when the time comes. I’m well aware that this did NOT happen in 2020….but we were very lucky. It’s very possible that the process of the corruption of the administration of elections will be much farther along by 2024 and, I don’t know, the election might be closer.

Each election has a personality of its own, if you will.

Once MAGA controlled election boards simply refuse to do their jobs because they don’t like the result, then one of the great ironies of the modern age will happen — suddenly, it will be Blues who will be screaming at the top of their lungs about “Stop The Steal.”

Let me pause here to note that America is tearing itself apart in ways big and small to the point that I just don’t see us making through the passions of another presidential cycle without Something Bad happening. That Somethng Bad could be, as I mentioned, autocracy, civil war or military junta.

But back to the scenario.

Once election boards in swing states balk at doing their jobs, the clock will begin to tick as to what the fuck is going to happen. And if SCOTUS validates the “independent legislature” concept this would be the point where everything would go off the rails. MAGA controlled legislatures in swing states could simply take control of the administration of elections that that point and pretty much just do whatever the fuck they wanted.

This is the point when we would reach a crisis. Just a few days after Election Day 2024, there would begin to be talk amongst a lot of Twitter liberals about either simply voting with their feet and leaving the country for good or even giving up on trying to “Stop The Steal” and having states call up Secessionist Conventions to give at least a thin cover of legality to trying to leave the Union.

Now, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of an old as hell POTUS who could very well just drop dead in the middle of this crisis, making an already very bad situation even worse.

The key element as to any Secessionist Crisis would be, of course, California and maybe New York City. If there was such popular outrage in Blue states that the 2024 election was going to be stolen in broad daylight that election officials in the deep blue states simply could not ignore the demand to leave the Union, then well, we’re going to show.

Meanwhile, NYC would be important because that’s where Trump Tower, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post are physically located. If hordes of enraged New Yorkers sacked those places in the middle of any Certification Crisis, then, well, that would be very bad as to the continued unity of the country.

If we turned on CNN in late 2024 and saw Trump Tower in New York City in flames, then, well, that would probably prompt retaliation on the part of Reds across the country. Which would would cause a cascading series of events that would definitely turn a Certification Crisis in to a Secessionist Crisis.

And all of this would be happening in the context of Trump freaking the fuck out and demanding blood. He might go so totally nuts that he, unto himself, could push the country into not just “chaos” but an actual civil war with two governments fighting it out.

There is just so much about this scenario that I can’t game out. I’m not an expert and I can’t predict the future. So, take that into consideration.

At this point, all eyes would be on California. Either they maybe call up a Secessionist Convention just to placate enraged liberals in the state or they maybe call some sort of emergency summit of Blue governors to discuss what happens next.

Then we bump up against two crucial questions. What about “purple” states and what happens with the U.S Military?

There are a number of states, like Virginia, which are purple. Virginia, specifically, is actually two states who fucking hate each other fused together because of history and geography. So this is when something that would make a lot of people sit up and take notice would happen — not only would there potentially be coups and counter coups in state houses across the country, many, many Reds would leave Blue states and Blues would leave Red states.

All this happening virtually overnight would put ever-more pressure on the Federal government. It would begin to dawn on people that the United States, the richest most stable country in the world was about to collapse into not just “rolling political violence” like The Troubles in Northern Ireland but an honest to God civil war like the one that happened in 1861 – 1865.

This brings us to the other issue — what the fuck would the U.S. Military do?

Well, I simply can’t game this out. There is a spectrum of things the U.S. Military might end up doing. Everything from simply collapsing as the Red enlisted go one way while the Blue officer corp goes another way to some sort of martial law / military junta happening. (If you really wanted to be paranoid, the fact that bonkers Gen. Mike Flynn’s brother is in control of the U.S. Pacific Command might suddenly become VERY IMPORTANT at this point.)

I really can’t game out what happens now. Either Blue States leave the Union en mass, establish their own Federal government and military or the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while until passions die down.

Or Blue States could choke and we slide into autocracy, with millions of wealth Blues leaving the country for good.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From what I can tell about how my Traditionalist conservatives consume media, they turn to Fox News and Right wing podcasts in an effort to make some sense of the world.

The key element to this is once they have their talking points, they are able to dismiss anything that doesn’t fit their MAGA media narrative. There comes a point when this or that subject becomes so fucking loaded that it’s impossible to talk about with them if you disagree with them.

So, things like gun control, abortion and global climate change are now off limits because the Right has their orthodoxy and the Blues have their orthodoxy and that’s that. If you press Reds about what they believe –especially those beliefs that are obviously based on a lie — they just chuckle and wave off whatever point you are trying to make.

They know what they believe and fuck you, lib.

So, that’s the point of all the bullshit that is spewed out by MAGA Republicans is an effort to give low information conservative voters a reason not to listen to people like me. Low information conservative voters want simplistic, easy to understand reasons why Blues are children of satan who want everyone to be gay or risk being “canceled.”

A prime example of this is what’s been going on with the Paul Pelosi attack. It doesn’t matter if the talking point is created out of whole cloth, it gives low-information conservative voters something to glom onto, an excuse to dismiss anyone who is alarmed by it. Reds can just chuckle, wave their hand and pivot to something else they feel more comfortable talking about. That seems to be a new immutable fact of American politics.

The end result of all of this is that we’re lurching ever closer to full-blown fascism. If the two sides can’t debate anything — can’t even agree on what is real, what is factual — then your democratic politics is dead and you’ve got one foot in autocracy.

There’s no cure for this. We’re past the Event Horizon when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Good luck.