Category: Cold Civil War

A Deep Dive Into ‘What Is Woke?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that Ron DeSantis plans on riding his crusade against “wokeness” to the White House — if Trump doesn’t stop him, of course — let’s really dig into what it means to be “woke.”

There is a lot to unpack. On one hand “woke” is an amalgam of abstract fears on the part of people who want a white Christian ethno state. It’s also a catchall for MAGA people to use to hand wave any policy disagreement they have with someone that they can’t wiggle their way out of.

So, in a sense, to be “woke” is whatever a conservative needs it to be to own the libs. But also, I would propose it’s a word meant to be imbued with the general sense of dread that a lot of conservative feel about the dramatic social changes that have occured in America since about the middle of Obama’s second term. From their point of view, everyone not MAGA is aggressively gay now and the “woke cancel culture mob” will ruin your life if you don’t support them “grooming” children to be transgender.

This is all bullshit, of course. But this abstract fear is very, very powerful when it comes to electoral politics — so much so that Ron DeSantis may become our first autocrat because of it. (Again, only if Trump gets out of the way — which isn’t going to.)

“Wokeness” is curious because there is no set definition. Which, I suppose, is what MAGA “thought leaders” want because, lulz, the better to own the libs with. If no one knows what “wokeness” is, then it can be anything as necessary to win an argument.

I guess, relative to people like Ron DeSantis, attacking “wokeness” is a way of Red Pilling the electorate without getting into what that really means. The sense that CIS white people are under attack by transgender POC who rant about “trigger warnings” and “pronouns” is an extremely alarming concept to your typical Christian white people.

Throw in Fox News and Right wing podcasts berating their audience with the boogie man of the “woke cancel culture mob” and, well, lulz, there you go. The gnashing of teeth over “wokeness” is actually a proxy debate over America becoming a majority minority country in the coming years and all the other changes to America society that scare the shit out of Christian white people.

So, I guess you could say that “woke” is everything and nothing. It is what a MAGA person with a podcast needs it to be at any particular moment to scare the shit out of his or her audience that their lives will be ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” for this or that stray comment.

In my experience, “woke” people — at least one Twitter — are people who frame any discussion relative to if you follow some nebulous orthodoxy that only they seem to know the finer points of. They have all these rules about human behavior that make no sense relative to how people actually act. They come across as easily offended — triggered, if you will — and they attack me for being a ‘CIS white male” who should neither be seen nor heard. It’s always when people come at me from the Left — the woke Left — that I am most at the lost and get the most angry. It’s difficult for me to articulate what exactly these woke Twitter users believe without sounding, well, racist and misogynistic for not agreeing with them. Which, I suppose, makes me unwoke?

The bottomline is, as it has always been –we’re fucked. Get a passport and get out of the country while you still can. Autocratic fascism is very popular in the United States and in the end the only question will be if we have a civil war, become an autocracy or get taken over by a military junta.

Election Night Is A Soju Night

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the key thing that we don’t really realize about American politics is how the Democratic and Republican Parties are not equal in their structure. The Democratic Party is an amalgam of pro-democracy center-Left parties with sometimes conflicting goals for the country. The Republican Party, meanwhile is a real party — a fascist party.

So, the issue is, simple macro trends indicate that our democracy — or anocracy, if you will — is taking its last breaths. And, in real terms, the only way for it to comeback is some sort of civil war where the Blue states either get their independence or they win outright.

Otherwise, it’s autocracy or military junta.

We’re in uncharted territory because never before in the post-Civil War Era has one of the two major parties completely given up on the American birthright of democracy.

But here we are — Republicans are autocratic and fascist.

I will admit that I keep rolling around in my mind what I could possibly get getting wrong with all my hysterical, dire predictions. I can’t predict the future, so there are plenty of unexpected things that might punt the problems associated with our crisis of democracy down the road a little bit — only punt. There are no solutions because Republicans simply will not, on an existential basis, do the one thing that might save our democracy: change their policies.

So, to that extent, in general terms, I’m right that our future is autocracy, civil war or military junta.

But tonight, election night, I think I’m going to drink some soju and be so drunk that I will be feeling no pain should fucking fascist, autocratic Republicans take the House and or Senate. At least the next two years are going to be VERY interesting.

And the same forces of Trumplandia that caused me to throw myself into my six novel project in the first place will kick in and maybe I will feel a lot of renewed pressure to wrap things up before I croak.

The 2022 Mid-Terms May Be A MAGA Counter-Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I do not believe that the American press has done a very good job of preparing the public for how dark things may get if Republicans control the House and or the Senate. Republicans are now so radical that they’re fascist and autocratic. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy unless you win the election.

And, really, the curious thing is what doesn’t seem to be on the cusp of happening — Speaker Trump.

Trump being Speaker of the House is something that would be a basic autocratic play for any other person in Trump’s position. But Trump is such a lazy idiot and has such poor abstract thought abilities that he just can’t process in his mind how politically advantageous it would be for him to be Speaker.

But the key issue we have to remember is the only way we end the MAGA Republican threat is probably a civil war. That’s it. I say this because MAGA is now American Nazism and, in the end, the only way to end MAGA is how we ended Nazism — in the field of battle.

Let me be clear, however — I hate violence. I don’t want any form of violence, so what I just wrote is just an abstract, back of the envelope statement. So, we have to accept that we’re probably going to turn into a political clone of Nazi Germany at some point after Republicans steal / win the 2024 election. Then everyone who can will flee the country, just like people did when the Nazis took over Germany.

The point is — if Republicans take the House and or Senate, they are going to do everything in their power to destroy what’s left of American democracy so they can prime conditions for the final coup de grace. Or, put another way, the years 2023 – 2024 will be extremely dark and turbulent if Republicans have any sort of meaningful power.

I don’t know what to tell you. Get a passport. Game out where you might be able to flee to when the final darkness of autocratic MAGA fascism drapes across the country.

What If Democrats Manage To Pull Off An Upset In The 2022 Midterms?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I woke up this morning to Axios telling me in breathless terms how fucked Democrats obviously were in tomorrow’s 2022 midterms. For anyone who is a fan of the Twitter account New York Times Pitchbot, it was yet another example of how what should be a parody account pretty much is reality at this point.

I don’t know why, but the mainstream press, far from being in the bag for Democrats, seem to believe the only way they can be “objective” is to shit on Democrats every chance they can get.

This does not, however, stop your typical conservative from being hysterical in their belief that one of the reasons they want to burn the country to the ground is the “media elites” won’t give them a fair shake. The fact that Republicans lie so much about things that we can all see not to be true is yet another sign that Something’s Gotta Give.

We can’t keep punting this shit down the road forever.

But let’s go back to the issue at hand — what if Axios is wrong? What if somehow Democrats manage to keep both the House and Senate?

The reason why it’s difficult for me to believe this is possible is macro trends indicate that MAGA and the associated slide into autocrat fascism is very, very popular within the American electorate. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy at all — or at least not believe in any election where they lose.

But, just for the sake of argument, what if Democrats manage an upset?

I think if that happened, the first thing that would happen is Republicans would scream bloody murder because they would point to all the polls going into the election that indicated THEY were going to win. Which, given that they funded these flood-the-zone polls, this whole argument will be bullshit.

One apparent flashpoint is going to be Pennsylvania, specifically the area around Philadelphia. Apparently, we’re at risk of another Brooks Brother Riot in that area if things don’t go Republican’s way tomorrow.

The one thing that is not going to happen is Republicans suddenly having a come to Jesus moment about democracy. Rather than doing the obvious — changing their views so they’re more popular — Republicans are going to double down, triple down on their love of autocratic fascism.

They will see any defeat at the polls as a sign that their efforts to steal elections haven’t been aggressive enough. They are determined to strangle American democracy once and for all at any cost.

MAGA Republican’s Joy of ‘Debate Nullification’ Is Destroying American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just from my personal interaction with my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — I’ve noticed an alarming development: debate nullification. This is when an issue becomes so loaded that it’s impossible to discuss it with a MAGA person.

There are two ways this happens.

One is, the received talking points from Fox News and Right wing podcasts are so potent that all that happens when you, a center-Left person, try to talk to a MAGA adjacent Traditionalist conservative is you talk past each other. They are so wrapped up in their media narrative that they just don’t listen to you. They wave off any facts you have as “bogus” because they’re enraged by how they perceive the “woke cancel culture mob” as being “groomers” who are so aggressively gay in their agenda that they will ruin the lives of anyone who won’t become transgender.

You think this is hyperbole but this is pretty much literally what they think.

The other way it happens is an otherwise very serious issue — everything from global climate change to the vicious attack on Paul Pelosi — is reduced to a “joke” that they can crack. So, you the moment you bring up this or that alarming thing that is really serious and in any functioning democracy would be something we would debate to come some consensus as to how to address — they just chuckle and crack some dumbass joke they heard on a Right wing podcast.

It’s all very aggravating.

I just don’t know what to tell you. There’s no solution. The two sides are receding away from each other at such an alarming rate that we’re all very, very fucked. We’re pass the event horizon for autocracy, civil war or military junta. Either you recognize this, or you don’t.

America is facing some severe macro problems that are all going to come to a head in late 2024, early 2025. We just won’t be able to punt these massive problems down the road anymore. The chickens, as they say, are coming home to roost.

Predicting The 2023 MAGA Impeachment Cavalcade

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If Republicans take the House, which historically, they are favored to do, MAGA will have the power to impeach members of the Biden Administration. Given how fucking spiteful a Republican controlled House will be, it’s not a question of if more than one member of the Biden Administration will be impeached, it’s if there’s anyone who WON’T be impeached.

Here’s a back-of-the-envelope prediction about all the potential impeachments we should expect in 2023 if Republicans do, in fact, take the House.

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

Abortion Politics, MAGA & The Rise Of A Very American Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Whenever I talk politics these days with my far more conservative relatives — who I love dearly — inevitably the subject of abortion comes up and inevitably I come away at a loss.

There are so many contradictions and poorly thought out things connected to cause and effect that it’s difficult to process. The most glaring paradox is, of course, is that “pro-life” advocates got so fucking worked up for 50 years about how “every life is precious” then when COVID hit the country they were fully prepared to sacrifice Elders to the grim reaper. Unless, of course, they were related to them, then that was different.

Meanwhile, it seems as though MAGA is offended that abortion is mentioned at all in the public square. They take ANY mention of it, even in the effort to keep women safe, as gratuitous and taboo. They get all worked up about how states like California tell women they can still get abortions there, as if the state is advocating they have abortions instead of carry their fetus to term.

So, for a lot of conservatives, all abortions must be illegal because, by definition, abortion is only used for birth control. But wait, there’s more — these very same people have used all sorts of birth control themselves and they lulz the idea that MAGA is coming after legal birth control next, even for married people.

Abortion was always a legal firebreak for birth control in general and now that it’s gone, all of the passion behind ending Roe is now going after overturning the legal framework that has kept any form of birth control legal.

This all points out the central tenant of MAGA — they have a very poor grasp of how they keep hurting their self interests with some of their much sought after policies. They’re oblivious to it until, of course, it gets personal, then they secretly pay for an abortion or whatever. They don’t mind being hypocrites. In fact, that’s kind of their thing.

Now, obviously, there is another Red Line that I’m very concerned about — once the United States is an autocracy, the clock will be ticking for when I cross the autocrat and an ICE agent shoots me in the back of the head. I’ve had the luxury of being a loud mouth crank in a liberal democracy and once that’s no longer the case, my goose is cooked.

I’m probably going to be one of the first victims of the autocrat simply because I’m never, ever going to fucking shut up — even if my far more conservative relatives beg me to “for the sake of the family.”

Free speech is part of my American birthright and I plan to exercise it to the very end.

Dave Chappelle, Or How I Learned To Quit Worrying & Love The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes when I talk to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m aghast at how different they perceive the world relative to me. At the very forefront of their mind is the idea that the “woke cancel culture mob” is not only “grooming” children, but they will “cancel” anyone who is conservative enough to question their aggressive “gay agenda.”

Not canceled.

Ugh.

A prime of example of this bizarre world view is Dave Chappelle. My Traditionalist relatives believe that because of his aggressive anti-trans stance, that Chappelle’s career is dead and he now lives under an assumed name along with all the other “canceled” conservatives of Hollywood.

Of course, this is complete bullshit.

Chappelle is doing fine. He’s very popular and continues to have a robust career. But the expression my Traditionalist conservatives give me when I point this out is complete disbelief. They really believe that the “woke cancel culture mob” is so absolutely powerful that by definition if you have the temerity to cross them that you burst into flames and descend into some sort of “canceled” hell to be with a groomer Satan or some such.

This is why I just don’t believe there is any hope for America anymore. The idea that the people who otherwise would be the bedrock of our democracy now apparently, in the abstract, live in abject fear of having their lives ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” just for being conservative is extremely alarming. They are primed and ready to, when the time comes, support America’s transition into autocracy.

Then, of course, the only question we face is do we endup around Hungary and Turkey politically or do we careen towards something closer to Russia or Nazi Germany. At the moment, I honestly can’t game things out that far.

And, yet, it definitely seems that this is it. Call it the Fourth Turning, or the “Great Reset,” or whatever the fuck you want, but the United States is far less stable than you might otherwise think. And, really, the issue is — when MAGA demands Blues bend a knee to autocratic fascism, do they do it or do they serve papers on a National Divorce?

At the moment, I think Blues are going to be so sucker punched by how rapidly the transition to fascism happens in the United States that they’ll just shrug and let it happen. After a brief moment of panic in late 2024, early 2025, we’ll just slip into autocracy, probably through a process that will ultimately end in a Constitutional Convention.

There is a small chance of a military junta, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re going to flee once the American Nazis known as MAGA finally consolidate power.

I Do *Not* Know Why Someone From The Justice Department Looked At Your LinkedIn

I wrote a post about myself but it never said anything about the motives of the Justice Department looking at people’s LinkedIns in general. I put a rhetorical question in the title.

After years of it being used by people worried like I was, I have changed it, hoping it will no longer be indexed and found by people panicking about this thing happening to them, too.

Sorry.

Hell, Sometimes Even I Want To Burn It All Down

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not, by nature, a violent man. In fact, I hate guns and I hate violence of any sort. I’m a man of ideas, a man of peace. And the argument could be made that having three cats when I was growing up gave me that brain parasite in cat urine that is makes you “nicer.”

But even I have to admit that income disparity in the United States is growing so alarming as to make the country far more unstable than you might think. I keep being reminded of this massive disparity when I listen to some of my favorite liberal-progressive podcasts.

The things they talk about are simply impossible for me to imagine being able to afford. And they’re so casual about it. They talk about their jetset lives and the elements of their latest AirBnB as if EVERYONE can do such a thing. I understand that some of it all is aspirational in nature — they talk about it to make themselves sound cool or they’re just clueless — but the net effect is I feel like going to the ramparts in the spirit of Thomas Jefferson.

All of this is even more relevant when you realize that the wealthiest, most stable, most powerful democracy humanity has ever seen could very well implode into civil war at some point between now and spring 2025. I know that at the moment that sounds both hysterical and fantastical, but if you look at macro trends — like income inequality — oh boy.

What’s even more alarming to me on a personal basis is I’ve shifted own my position on the future of the Union some. I used to consider myself a Lincoln Unionist through and through….but now, as autocratic MAGA fascists grow more and more politically ascendant I have come to believe that on paper, at least, Blue states should seriously consider secession.

But at the same time, I hate violence so much that I suppose it would be for the best if Blues simply bent a knee to fascist on the state level and let wealthy liberals flee the country en masse. Of course, there is a possibility that some sort of military junta will step in during any Certification Crisis in 2024 – 2025 and that will be a stop gap solution between autocracy and civil war.

Who knows. But all I know is the United States is primed and ready for civil war / revolution from either the Right OR Left. I suppose your best bet is to get a passport and leave the country now, in advance, if you have the means.