Category: Cold Civil War

DeSantis’ Dick Move About Undocumented Immigrants Is Ominous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Besides having an overarching abstract fear of being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob” simply for being conservative, the other pressing issue for a lot of MAGA Republicans is the “border crisis.” This is, in a sense, the original sin of the MAGA Republican movement.

The problem with addressing the alarm that MAGA Republicans have about the border crisis is, well, people like me can’t address the pink MAGA elephant in the room. The reason why MAGA Republicans are so alarmed about the border crisis is, of course, that they’re bigots. But it’s nearly impossible to say that in the course of any debate with a MAGA Republican because they will get really mad and simply engage in debate nullifcation.

As such, there’s no much point in talking about it with them because they a very comfortable, well thought out media narrative that they can fall back upon. If you challenge it in anyway, they just say it’s “bogus” because the information you point them to is just, in their eyes, liberal propaganda. They want “secure borders” — to the point of building a very pointless wall (which isn’t even a wall, but rather a fence) — and there’s absolutely nothing you can say to them that is going to change their mind.

And now we have the added development of several border state Republicans shipping undocumented immigrants to various Blue State places in an effort to remind them of the “crisis” at the border. This is a dick move on their part, but the base loves, loves, loves it so there’s not much to be done about it. It helps these governors secure their fucking racist, bigoted base and that’s that.

If such a fucking dick move isn’t a sign that we’re careening towards either autocracy or civil war between now and spring 2025, I don’t know what does. When states start to turn on each other like this, that’s a very, very bad sign on a macro level.

And, what’s more the “crisis on the border” is probably going to be one of several reasons why Biden will be impeached, should Republicans take the House. The will put the country through yet another extremely divisive impeachment because they want to hurt Biden politically and they want to draw as much attention as possible to their hysterical, bigoted fears about the browning of America.

I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It definitely seems like we’re fucking doomed. Prove me wrong, America.

Time To Retire The ‘Destroys’ Trope In Political Discourse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most grating things to appear in American political discourse these days is when someone says someone “destroyed” this or that person with some comment they made. This is so, so very dumb for a number of reasons.

But the biggest reason is this is very frothy 2017 rhetoric. It works on the assumption that anything one might say about a MAGA Republican might change any minds. No matter how much you may “destroy” someone with a comment it just doesn’t change anything.

The two sides believe what they believe to the point that they can’t even agree on what is real. The Left and the Right already have their individual media narratives and talking points and they talk pass each other whenever there is any sort of debate about issues of the day.

There is no middle ground and no one’s mind will be changed no matter how much they “destroy” someone. It’s just silly and misguided at this point. Better to say nothing. Better to accept that the country is rushing towards a seminal moment in its political history when either it has a civil war or turns into an autocracy.

While I suppose there’s a chance of a military junta as well, the most likely outcomes are autocracy or civil war. We need to manage our expectations and stop believing that any sort of making a point will change our fate. MAGA Republicans are so angry, racist and misogynistic that they’ve tuned out any argument they don’t agree with.

And if they do listen to someone who disagrees with them, they get really, really angry. Not that I’m not above getting really, really angry myself when dealing with MAGA people, but at least I feel bad about it afterwards.

Anyway — people need to cool it with the “destroys” trope. Move on. Time to prepare.

The Conventional Wisdom About What A Second American Civil War Would Look Like Is Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to see where the conventional wisdom by Respected Authors when it comes to a possible Second American Civil War is something like this — if happens, it will be rolling political violence from the MAGA Right who thinks they’re defending “real” America.

I call bullshit. This makes no sense. It seems, in a strange way, to be a certain amount of wishcasting on their part. These Respected Authors just aren’t willing to game out a scenario where the Second American Civil War looks a lot like the first. I still believe that if a 2ACW happens — which I don’t think it will — it will happen in late 2024, early 2025 when Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” to the autocratic fascism of MAGA Republicans who are in the process of stealing the 2024 election.

If it happens, it would happen spontaneously, probably starting with California, and may only be stopped with the swift and severe intervention of the U.S. Military in the guise of a military junta. There is, of course, the possibility that it will be Trump who demands that Red States leave the Union earlier than this scenario in an effort to save his sorry ass.

I guess the point of all of this is — I just don’t see any civil war happening in the way that the alleged experts say it will. It just doesn’t make any sense. They’re working on the assumption that MAGA Republicans will decide, spontaneously, to start blowing shit up.

But that just doesn’t make any sense unless Trump on a personal basis, goes transactional. MAGA Republicans are politically ascendant and, in the end, all they have to do is win ONE election and that’s all she wrote — we’re an autocracy.

If you think about who has something to lose in our current political climate, it’s not Reds, but Blues. And, as such, if we’re going to have another civil war — which I don’t think we will –but if we do, it’s going to be when Blue States decide to leave the Union as part of some sort of Certification Crisis in late 2024, early 2025.

I’m always wrong, however. So, who knows. I still think the most logical endgame is we simply become an autocracy and in about 20 years one a political basis the United States and Russia will be clones.

The Conditions Exist For a Second American Civil War Between Now & Spring 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From my occasional political discussions with my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — it seems clear to me that the conditions already exist for a Second American Civil War. One of my relatives believe that to be a Democrat is, by definition, to be essentially a Godless Satan worshiper while the other one throws around the blood libel of “groomer” against the center-Left in a very cavalier fashion. So, in my little corner of the political world, people in my immediate family are ready to — in an abstract manner — support political violence against liberals.

Now, on a practical basis, I doubt they would actually support political violence. In fact, that might even be one of the few “red lines” they actually have — they will be Good Germans until there is actual blood in the streets. But if you have to wait until there is actual political violence before you object to the the policy agenda of MAGA, well, the whole country has a serious problem.

One of the indications that I have that the conditions exist for a civil war is how my Traditionalist relatives are enraged by the soft power of the center-Left. They are willing to burn the whole country to the ground using the *hard power* of MAGA to crush the *soft power* of the “woke cancel culture mob.” In essence, they’re willing to give up their birth right of American democracy because they think liberals are annoying.

But this is just one of a number of different conditions that exist that indicate we’re very ripe for a civil war at some point between now and, say, spring 2025. The two sides can no longer agree on the facts of any subject. If I point out this or that thing that Trump did that hurts the conservative movement, then it’s “bogus” because it comes from a media outlet that is liberal. My Traditionalist relatives suggest that “maybe we need a unbiased fact checker we can all agree on.”

We have that, it’s called Snopes and all MAGA conservatives do is spend all their time working the refs, saying Snopes is wrong for this or that reason. The facts simply are not on the side of MAGA Republicans, but because they’re so enraged by the browning of America, the growing economic independence of women and a growing support for gay rights….well, they willfully ignore the facts.

Or, put another way, the United States is more and more two nations, one Red one Blue who simply do not agree on not only what it means to be American but what basic fucking facts are. And if you’re so polarized that you can’t even agree on facts then my fears about autocracy or civil war in the United States starting around 2025 become very real.

The remaining question is, of course, is there going to be a civil war? While the conditions exist for one, I just don’t think one is going to happen. I say this because the people who would probably agitate the most for a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025 — Twitter liberals — are all going to leave the country should the time come.

So, yes, MAGA Republicans will finally end the terror of the “woke cancel culture mob” when they turn the United States into a Russian-style autocracy. I’m poor, so I won’t be able to get out of the country when ICE is weaponized and people like me are put into camps. Then, of course, the OTHER red line for my Traditionalist relatives — the personal — will be crossed and they’re going to have to figure out how to get me out of said camp.

I know that sounds very hysterical at the moment, but form follows function. Once we’re no longer a democracy — or even an anocracy — it’s only going to be a matter of time before MAGA Republicans come after basic freedoms like freedom of speech. And because I will never shut up about how much I fucking hate MAGA — no matter how much my Traditionalist relatives may beg me to do so — they’re going have to get me out of a concentration camp.

What Democratic Forces Can Learn From MAGA Republicans

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the biggest differences between MAGA Republicans and the center-Left is the former has a very simple argument. MAGA Republicans know what they’re for and they are very passionate in articulating it. Of course, there is some murkiness with MAGA New Right rhetoric, but they have no shame and don’t care if they look like hypocritical fools, so lulz.

But, in general, there is a very clear MAGA Republican orthodoxy and, as such, it’s much more simple to articulate and propagate.

As such, I think the center-Left would be wise to boil down what they’re for into something that is far shorter than a long, rambling Substack post. Far too often, the center-Left gets into the weeds of how many different genders their are and the more nuanced elements of feminism.

The United States is now entering a very dangerous political period in its history and we have reached a point where anti fascists need to be clear as to what they believe. While I don’t believe in violence, I do think there should be something akin to “popular Antifa” that would be present the case for anti-fascism and democracy in a far more clear, blunt way than we currently have available.

We may all be Antifa eventually.

But, of course, Antifa is such a loaded term now, that it’s impossible to use. I don’t know what to call it. And no one listens to me, so luz. I just had to get this off my chest because I’m feeling a little annoyed.

We need to realize how dire the situation is and if we want to save American democracy, we need hone our political rhetoric down to something that the average person who isn’t all that interested in which pronouns to use can understand.

I Have To Vent About The Durham Investigation

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — who were all-in with the MAGA Republican talking points about the initial stages of the fishing expedition known as the Durham Investigation. They really believed that Durham found some sort of wide spread Deep State conspiracy against the Trump Administration guided by Hillary Clinton. Or something equally annoying.

John Durham

Anyway, now that it seems as though the Durham Investigation is wrapping up pretty much having found nothing and having wasted a lot of money, I think the whole shitshow is a window into how much trouble the United States is in. People who should otherwise know better — educated, angry white men — have succumb to the siren call of the MAGA New Right. If you lose your Traditionalists to fascism, your democracy is on its last legs.

But here we are, that’s exactly what’s happened.

So, as I keep saying, as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle the United States faces the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. There is no middle ground other, than, say, a military junta maybe. I say this because, by definition, a Republican president means autocracy. It doesn’t matter if it’s Trump, DeSantis or Youngkin.

The spectrum whereby Republicans operate on a policy basis has shifted so far to the Right and is so natively undemocratic that it’s just not possible for American democracy to survive if we have a Republican president. This is just a more extreme version of how George W. Bush ran as a “compassionate conservative,” but, in general, on a practical basis far more conservative than that.

Of course, if someone as bland and vacuous as Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin becomes POTUS, the transition to autocracy will probably be a lot more gradual — but it will happen. The Republican Party, on an institutional basis has grown so radical and hates democracy so much that, lulz, even someone as ostensibly moderate and mediocre as Youngkin would ultimately become America’s first autocrat given any power.

But let me be clear — in the end, America’s fate rests in Trump’s tiny, tiny little hands. He could, unto himself, on a personal basis cause a civil war in a number of different ways. Yet I still wonder if I’m over estimating him — again. He’s just so stupid and so lazy that anything is possible.

‘Can There be Another Civil War in America?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have given this a lot of thought and the central issue when weighing the possibility of a Second American Civil War is how serious we should take all this talk of political violence that we now seem surrounded by. There is a lot of abstract fear about a civil war that is generated more from the absolute partisan divide in the country as opposed to any real risk of a war between Blue and Red actually breaking out.

How much of the chatter about having a 2ACW is simply MAGA Republicans have murdering liberals on the brain and how much is something we should be worried about? Is there a real risk that the most stable democracy in the world could actually implode into civil war?

That is a question I just can’t game out for a number of reasons. One reason is I believe that if there is a real risk of a civil war it’s going to be because Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” fascist MAGA Republicans when they either steal the 2024 election or come in with a presidential policy agenda that is so radical that they can’t bear to stay in the Union anymore.

Logically, there won’t be a civil war because millions of Twitter liberals will vote with their feet and flee the country as it becomes clear that the United States is finally transitioning into an autocracy. As such, the very people would might agitate for a “National Divorce” won’t be around to do it. The United States will simply drift into fascism and 20 years from now we’ll all be wondering why President DeSantis is invading Canada.

And, yet, any discussion of the potential for a 2ACW has to address the cold hard fact that Trump, unto himself, could single handedly start a civil war for a variety of reasons. I — and a lot of other people — are notorious for overestimating Trump’s political acumen, but there is a greater-than-zero-sum chance that Trump could start a civil war to save his sorry ass. Or he could say “the quiet part out loud” in 2024 to such an extent that some Blue States simply can not bend a knee and we have a civil war.

So, I don’t know. I just don’t know if we’re going to have a civil war or not. It’s very possible we might have one, but just not very probable. And in the end I think it’s pretty much up to Trump if we have one or not. He’s such a singular figure in American politics and history that he, himself, could be the additional pressure on the system that causes the whole thing to collapse.

But I think for the time being we would be better worrying about who his veep pick will be because whomever he picks will be America’s first autocrat.

‘Loose Cannon’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The current back and forth between Team Trump and the Justice Department in front of Judge Aileen Cannon is a prime example of why Mueller, She Wrote was wrong for blocking me for being “terribly negative.”

The decades’ long plot on the part of Republicans to corrupt the Federal bench is finally beginning to produce fruit. Judge Cannon is a young MAGA hack who will be on the bench for the next 40 odd years, probably. And no amount of whining on the part of Twitter liberals is going to change that. Which is exactly why she was appointed by Trump in the first place.

As such, we’ve probably gotten all the accountability we’re going to get with Trump. He’s suffered some political damage as result of stealing Top Secret documents, but when it comes to anything on a criminal basis…ha! Trump is above the law to the point that this case is going to bounce around the court system long enough that he will declare for 2024…and the whole thing becomes moot.

MAGA Republicans have accepted this criminal act by Trump — like they have all the other criminal shit he’s done — so, yet again, we just won’t have the will to do anything about Trump on either a criminal or political level. It is because of shit like what’s going on with Judge Cannon that any accusations about me being “terribly negative” just don’t hold up.

I’m right and Mueller, She Wrote is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Trump is above the law. And barring something neither I, nor anyone else, can predict, he’s going to be the 2024 Republican nominee. And there’s a good chance he might win outright, no cheating necessary, even though he will anyway because it’s his nature.

Then either Blue States bend a knee to autocratic, fascist MAGA Republicans or we don’t and we have a civil war. Again — I’m not being “terribly negative.” Just looking at what I can see with my own two eyes and gaming out what seeming to be the most logical outcome.

If I had any money, I would start gaming out how to accommodate our coming dystopian hellscape. But I’m a Poor, so, I don’t know what I’m going to do.

Am I ‘Terribly Negative’ or Just Realistic?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometime ago, I was blocked on Twitter by Twitter liberal darling “Mueller, She Wrote” because I both am “terribly negative” and “mischaracterized her work.” I only keep ranting about this because within my echo chamber I keep seeing people commenting on her Tweets and I can’t see them. So I’m reminded all the time that I’m blocked for such a dumb reason.

Which brings me to the question, is she right? Am I “terribly negative?” Well, I would point out that her Twitter account’s name itself has a serious amount of implied and baseless hope to it. I mean, there was a time when Twitter liberals pinned all their hope on the idea that life-long conservative Republican Robert Mueller would save them from Trump. Well, lulz, that didn’t work out, now did it. I think she’s changed her Podcast to “The Daily Beans” or some such, but the point remains — she and people like her thought Mueller was going to save us and he didn’t.

Am I being “terribly negative” to believe that the time for “hope” that the system is going to somehow save us by working is over and the very idea that Trump will ever be held criminally — or even politically accountable — is complete and total bullshit?

I’m not saying give up hope, I’m saying don’t pull all your eggs in the “I hope it will work out” basket. Time to prepare for the worst. And, what’s even more ironic is I feel pretty safe in saying that when what I fear happens, happen, people like Mueller, She Wrote will be the first to leave the country because they have the means to do so, leaving Poors like me to fend for ourselves.

The system is not working. It is not going to save us. And so I don’t think I mischaracterized her work at all. She keeps working on the assumption that the system still works and, by definition, Trump will eventually get caught and stop being a problem. It’s self-evident that that is simply never, ever going to happen. We’re either going to slide into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war.

There is no middle ground. No longer the era for baseless hope. Time to prepare and figure out how you’re going to survive the new post-democratic America. I’ve seen the woman behind Mueller, She Wrote mute other people for some pretty dumb reasons so I don’t feel all THAT bad. Obviously, she’s easily “triggered” and so I have to just accept my fate of being right, but still blocked.

Though I still dream of one day being a success, invited to a cocktail party where she is and laughing in her face so hard I might get kicked out. I boy can dream, can’t he?

Ron DeSantis Would Be America’s First Autocrat — But For Trump Being A Political Monster Who Won’t Get Out of The Way

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — any Republican who becomes POTUS in 2025 will be our first autocrat. There are a at least a dozen would-be MAGA Republican autocrats waiting for Trump to just get the fuck out of the way. He’s served his political and historical purpose, so if he would just retire our inevitable decline into autocracy could happen unabated.

The person who is very, very, very popular with my Traditionalist is Ron DeSantis. And, really, he fits the bill of the person who would be America’s first autocrat. He will become president and we’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why he’s still POTUS. Trump has shown DeSantis — and other leading Republicans — how weak the center-Left is and how easy it will be to establish an autocracy based on minority rule. They just need the opportunity and the rest will take care of itself.

By definition, DeSantis as POTUS means the end of 240-odd years of American democracy. It probably won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. And as it does, millions of wealthy liberals will leave the country. This scenario, at least in my mind, is a forgone conclusion. The only thing stopping it from happening is it hasn’t happened yet.

And, yet, there is Donald Trump.

Ron DeSantis

Trump simply will not get out of the way. He’s so lazy and stupid that baring something I can’t predict, even if he wins the 2024 election outright he could still start a civil war just by being himself. Trump is a massive quirk in American political history. Anyone else in his position — ANYONE — would have never have lost the 2020 election and he or she would not be slowly strangling American democracy in their second term.

Maybe something will happen that will force Trump to get out of the way. If that happens, then America will be full of Good Germans who are thankful that the “woke cancel culture mob” has finally be vanquished and America will, at last be “great” again. Whatever the fuck that means.

It will only be when the policies of our new autocratic government become personal that any of America’s Good Germans will feel a red line has been crossed. Of course, by that point it will be too late for people like me who will probably be in an ICE camp somewhere. Wish me luck.