Category: Cold Civil War

When Will Trump & MAGA Start The Second American Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I can’t predict the future. So this is simply me sketching out a scenario, not some sort of Fourth Turning attempt to predict the future with any sort of certainty. But as I’ve said over and over again, even though MAGA really, really, really wants a civil war so they can start to use all their AR-15s to murder people like me in cold political blood — they really don’t have any reason to do so.

They’re getting everything they want politically and through the courts. Why in the world would MAGA want to start a civil war when they can get everything they want peacefully, without firing a shot?

But MAGA is so hateful, so spiteful that they continue to come to this site with all its dystopian hellscape predictions, looking for some post they can use to stroke one out while they’re fucking their AR-15.

So, the question is — how and when could MAGA get that civil war they want so bad?

As of right now, as far as I can tell, there is only one way that it would be MAGA and not the Blues who start a civil war. If, say, something, God forbid, happened to Biden between now and the 2022 midterms, then there would be no veep. Then a lot would depend on how much Trump wanted to be POTUS again. If, when the House flips Trump hijacks the Republican selection of the Speaker of the House, then Trump would be one heartbeat away from the presidency.

And here’s where the civil war might happen, with Trump and MAGA being the reason.

Trump immediately leads the House Republicans to impeach now President Harris on, say, something to do with the “border crisis.” It goes to the Senate and when it becomes clear that there wouldn’t be a conviction, Trump, in an effort to put pressure on Democratic Senators, threatens to lead Red MAGA States “in to the promise land of freedom” unless they convict Harris and make him POTUS.

Things get out of hand, just like they did on January 6th and what Trump was using as a rhetorical tactic turns into a secession crisis. (I’m aware that Trump plotting to make January 6th an insurrection and things did NOT just get out of hand, but still.)

Republican States, starting with Texas, begin to hold snap secession conventions and away we go. At last, MAGA will have the excuse to use their AR-15s to murder the libtard “groomers.”

But let me clear — I will be flabbergasted if it we have the “Troubles” type civil war that some people seem to believe we will. To me at least, that makes no sense. When you have the resources of an entire political party, the Republican Party to use, why would you leave the death and destruction to amateurs when you can use the instruments of state?

The fact that so many MAGA people are slobbering about the idea of a civil war that would be more like the Troubles gives you a lot more insight into what’s really going on than you might think. Fucking cocksucker MAGA people are so riled up by Fox News and rabid conservative podcasts that they are looking for any excuse to murder liberals.

But if there is a civil war with MAGA starting it, it will be done at the state level. I’m sure there might be some wildcat bombings and political murders here and there, but the state level is where it’s going to be happening.

And, as I keep saying, I just don’t see MAGA doing a National Divorce. I think we’re going to slip peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy and that will be that. But if there is a civil war, it will start in late 2024, early 2025 and it will happen when Blue States leave the Union.

Overall, any talk of MAGA starting a civil war because they hate the woke cancel culture mob is just bloodthirsty froth.

The Curious Case Of Jon Stewart Not Running For President

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When the history of the United States’ final lurch into autocracy is written, at least one chapter will be written about something that didn’t happen: Jon Stewart running for POTUS.

Jon Stewart

I have long believed Stewart would make an excellent POTUS for a number of reasons. There’s evidence to suggest that he’s a great manager. And he’s a great speaker and he’s very articulate when something makes him angry. I have repeatedly suggested in the past that Stewart should run for the U.S. Senate or governor of New Jersey first before any running for POTUS.

Given what is known about Stewart now, he is almost a 1-to-1 with another Jewish comedian who rose to the occasion to be a great leader: Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine.

And, yet, for all his passionate anger over this pet causes now and again, Stewart has show no signs of wanting to anything else politically. He is content to run a glorified petting zoo and live a semi-retired life.

Having said all that, the United States, as I mentioned, is sliding into autocracy. And either Stewart might be able to slow that slide into autocracy some or he could very well become a Blue State leader should Blue decide to secede from the Union when it comes clear that Reds are determined establish an autocratic white Christian ethno state.

In the past, at least, Stewart has stepped out into the public eye for a political reason and then, when he grows too uncomfortable about it and begins to think people are taking him seriously — he cracks a fart joke.

I guess what I’m saying is — if anyone acted like Stewart is now and was as good at it, I would say, “He’s running.”

But even when people write Politico pieces about why Stewart should run, he’s gone all Gen. Sherman on us and said he has no interest in being POTUS whatsoever.

All I can say is — the moment Republicans take control of the House in January 2023, things are going to get very, very bumpy. And people like Stewart may find themselves doing things, like run for POTUS, that they might not otherwise be interested in doing.

Event Horizon: Comparing Trump’s January 6th Insurrection To Hitler’s Beerhall Putsch

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s sometimes easy to dismiss Trump as a political has been and a big old dingus. And, yet, I’m reading a biography about the political ascent of Hitler and I’m just past the part where Hitler tried to overthrow the Weimar Republic via his failed Beerhall Putsch.

What’s so alarming is, if you do a 1-to-1 between Trump’s January 6th Insurrection and Hitler’s Beerhall Putsch, Trump came a lot closer to getting what he wanted than Hitler. With the Beerhall Putsch, Hitler would have had to have marched on Berlin to successfully overthrown the government there. Meanwhile, Trump at the time of the January 6th Insurrection WAS the government and, to some extent, the only reason why he failed was Mike Pence simply did his job.

Had things worked out just a little bit differently on January 6th, Trump could have at least forced the country into chaos and potentially civil war. And there was just as much of a chance that he could have successfully pulled off an autogolpe and continued to stay in power.

So, the case could be made that Trump in 2020 and Hitler in 1923 were far more similar than one might first thing. And, what’s worse, Trump was actually more dangerous than Hitler.

The key thing we have to appreciate is how popular fascist autocracy is in the United States at the moment. A number of things superficially suggest that there might be a civil war instead of a slide into autocracy, but I continue to be very dubious of such a notion.

Just because the United States is far bigger and more diverse than the Weimar Republic doesn’t mean we’re any less likely to embrace fascism when the time comes. The American center-Left is a pushover and unless something I just can’t predict happens, they will suffer the same fate as Russian liberals when Putin came to power — exile, arrest and or death.

I would estimate that around 48% of the American population looking forward to a white, autocratic Christian ethno state. A lot of that 48% doesn’t really appreciate what it is exactly that they want, but they know it when they see it. As such, I continue to believe that on a macro historical scale MAGA could be as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than the Nazis.

Ultimately, more people will die because of MAGA than the Nazis.

I think this because either we have a civil war in the United States that causes WW3, or the United States becomes a MAGA themed America First Fortress which will so destabilize the world order that…a WW3 happens. And given the issue of race in the United States, it’s very likely that once we get our MAGA fascist state that it will go after African Americans, gays and…Jews. And loudmouth cranks like me.

Form follows function.

And the diverse nature of America could very well make our new fascist MAGA overlords feel more insecure to the point that they decide to have a “Final Solution” of their own.

Here’s something interesting to think about when it comes to comparing Hitler and Trump — both of them make no bones about their long-term intentions. Hitler wrote Mein Kampf while Trump did a lot of deranged tweets that gave people a real-time understanding of his thinking.

Form follows function. There are so many eerie similarities between Trump and Hitler that you have to take the rise of MAGA in the United States just as seriously as that of the NSDAP in the Weimar Republic. As of right now, the only thing that is a major difference between Trump and Hitler is Trump is not a Great Man.

He’s just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage in the United States. Trump is so stupid and so lazy that he is more of a transitional figure than Hitler, who shaped history to his will. So, in that sense, it’s probably going to be Trump’s fascist successor who will be America’s Hitler, or maybe some mish-mash of Hitler and Putin.

The point is — if you have the means, start making your plans for getting the fuck out of the United States. I’m a broke ass motherfucker so I’m going to have to stay and fight. But at least 1 million wealthy, well educated liberals are going to leave the US starting in late 2024. You should probably make your plans now to beat the rush.

The Philippines is lovely.

My Hot Take On Beyonce’s ‘Renaissance’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The last album I listened to that was as creative and musically stimulating as Beyonce’s Renaissance was the OutKast double album Speakerboxxx/The Love Below.

There’s something about the syncopation of much of Renaissance that is so unexpected that it makes you sit up and take notice. It’s really interesting to listen to.

It’s so good, in fact, that I am probably going to listen to the album obsessively for a few days (weeks?) until I get tired of it. It’s just so different than most of the crap being produced these days that it’s very emotionally and intellectually stimulating.

I have to note, as an aside, that it would be interesting if Beyonce did a throwback album that was literally like the Motown sound of the 60s. Or, even more interesting, if she did a straight pop-rock album in the style of Garbage. She’s such a versitle artist and that I doubt if her fanbase would get too upset if she did something like that out in left field.

I don’t get why The Atlantic labeled it a “big, gay mess.” I didn’t discern that from it. It just seemed really creative and interesting to me.

Anyway, Renaissance is a great, great album.

It’s Over. Get Out.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you have the means, I would recommend you leave the United States permanently. Or, at least begin to figure out how you’re going to do it before late 2024. America has given up on democracy, to the point that if we have any spunk left in us to defend it we’re going to have a civil war that Blues start.

But I just don’t believe we’re going to have a civil war.

The United States, one way or another, is going to become a Hungary-style autocracy. And maybe even an autocracy closer to Russia or Nazi Germany at some point in the not-so-distant future.

In short, we’re fucked.

Now, obviously, I can’t predict the future, so it’s possible something might happen that will punt this particular problem down the road. But it will just delay the existential crisis, not prevent it altogether.

There are some deep seated problems with the American political system and we’re totally, completely fucked sooner or later. Pick your poison, as they say. Republicans continue to break law after law and because we don’t have the political will to do anything about it, they get away with it.

And, soon enough, it will be conventional wisdom that the United States is no longer a democracy and, as such, at least 1 million wealthy, well educated American liberals will leave the United States altogether.

I hate the idea that the very people might be able to at least slow our slide into autocracy — Twitter liberals — are just going to give up and leave the country. And because I’m a poor fuck I’m going to be stuck holding the back and figuring out how to avoid being shot in the back of the head by an ICE agent when I get drunk and say something about President DeSantis being a fucking socksucker.

At the moment, at least, it definitely seems as though that’s my fate. It may not happen immediately after 2025 — it probably won’t — but it’s going to happen. Anyone like me who is a loudmouth crank is in danger of crossing the autocrat and ending up in a camp.

We’ve given up.

And, as such, I would suggest, if you can, to start gaming out where you’re going to live outside the United States once it’s an autocracy.

Why Would China Attack Taiwan Now?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert about any of this, so all of this is very speculative. So take that into consideration when reading. This is more me just doing one of my compulsive scenarios than any sort of definitive explanation.

One minor point –the last few months I’ve been getting the occasional ping to this Webste from China. I always assumed it was people connected to Tik-Tok annoyed that I was suggesting the service could read people’s mind. But what if it was people with Chinese intelligence interested in the political state of the United States? If you are a regular reader of this site, you will know that I have painted a very dire future for the United States.

Another thing — I think we’re probably at just the very early stages of any point in time where China might strike Taiwan. It would make a lot more sense for them to wait until at some point after 2025 when America will either be Fortress America or in the middle of a civil war to do anything against their wayward sisters in the South China Sea.

And, yet, I suppose the case could be made that there’s a lot going on inside China at the moment that nobody knows about and, as such, the Chinese might attack now, rather than wait until it’s obvious the United States is falling apart. The only reason why I even have started talking about all of this is I’ve begun to hear a minor amount of chatter about troop movements in China near Taiwan. And August is essentially here as of this writing, so…bingo?

Also, I could see China thinking that Biden is so old and the United States so divided that it would be difficult for the US to have a comprehensive approach to any Sino-Taiwanese War. This particular situation would only get worse, of course if more regional conflicts went hot and an actual WW3 began.

Talk about throwing American domestic politics for a loop!

Anyway. I have no idea. But is interesting to think about.

The Guns Of August: Running The China Attacks Taiwan Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I’m no expert on what’s going on between China and Taiwan these days, but I do love a good scenario. So, let’s run the scenario of what would happen if China went after Taiwan in August.

HT / The Sun

August, as you may know, sucks. So, it would make a lot of sense for China to start a war against Taiwan during the month. But the key thing to consider when approaching such a scenario is how the press would market it. If you have two major regional wars going on at the same time, it’s very easy to imagine that being marketed as “WW3” by the Western press.

That, until itself, would change the whole dynamic of the age. And, remember, the United States will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025 so that would be another datapoint to consider if the two regional wars sparked an even broader conflict.

Think the Russian Empire during WW1, only this time it would be the United States being knocked out of commission by either turning into an America First autocracy or imploding into civil war.

And, what’s more, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a much bigger war than what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine at the moment. So, it’s possible that the DPRK might look at the attack on Taiwan as their last ever chance to do something against their brothers to the south. (This is extremely speculative on my part.)

Then, of course, there’s away Iran. They have already vowed to assassinate a few high profile leaders in the US. There could be a chain reaction whereby you have WW3 — Russia V. Ukraine, Iran V. the West, China V. Taiwan and the DPRK v. ROK.

Oh, and don’t forget! There’s always the risk that India and Pakistan would want to settle some scores along the way too.

And that, my friend, would be WW3, with all the combatants being forced to pick a side. Talk about a Great Reset! The whole post-WW2 world order would collapse and we would be going to the show. There would be no narrative and we would have no idea how things would end up until the end.

May you live in interesting times…

Is It Too Late For the Center-Left To Find Its Indignant Rage Against The MAGA New Right?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve often said, we’re past the Even Horizon when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. And, in all honesty, that event probably actually happened some time ago. And not in 2016 when dingus Trump was elected — it probably happend the moment that Obama was re-elected.

Obama’s re-election tapped into something very visceral in the dark recesses of the American psyche and, lulz, here we are. Or, if you wanted to make things even more general — once the white percentage of the population reached a certain number other than 100%, we were fucking doomed.

Of late, there have been a few outbursts of liberal progressive rage against the rise of fascism in the United States. They have — to me at least — be very effective. Something about Jon Stewart flipping the fuck out over the dickhead nature of Senate Republicans has been very cathartic.

But. It’s probably too late.

We’ve given up. The forces that are tearing our democracy apart are just too powerful now. And in late 2024, early 2025 we’re going to be faced with the final choice — civil war or autocracy. And, as I keep saying, it’s not going to be a civil war started by Reds. At this point, that’s a very comical idea.

If there’s going to be a 2ACW, its going to be started by Blue States. Anyone who suggests otherwise (in general) is a total idiot who is too busy watching the shiny thin to notice what’s really going on.

I still think our fate is autocracy. It’s going to happen with a shrug. No one within the center-Left is going to put up any sort of fight. They’re all going to be too busy fleeing the country for the south of France to do any fighting.

They’re Going To Get Away With Everything

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are so depressing these days on the Trumplandia front, especially when it comes to January 6th. Much like how the Weimar Republic dealt with the rise of Nazism, there just isn’t the political will to do anything about the growth of fascist cancer.

At the moment, it appears as though American democracy will come to an end sometimes around 2025. Unless, of course, there’s a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War. And despite however much MAGA is foaming at the mouth to start a civil war — it won’t be them who do it. In the extremely unlikely event of a 2ACW, it will be Blues who start it.

There is no crime that Trump or his coterie of idiots can break that they will ever be held accountable for. And, given there is a deadline of Janaury 2025 to deal with, the judicial system is just too slow to ever get around to do anything even if it was so inclined.

So, that’s it. Barring something I just can’t predict, we’re going to become a MAGA New Right themed autocracy. It’s all happening in broad daylight with our eyes wide open. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump.

And the reason is two fold.

One, autocracy is so popular that we’ve kind of just given up. Too many people want to believe the lies that Trump sells and so they are willful in their desire for Trump to come back and put the finishing touches on ending American democracy via Schedule F and other ideas.

Meanwhile, the American center-Left is extremely ineffectual, divided, misguided and old (most of the time) to do anything head on to address the rise of fascism.

Put those two things together and you have a massive historical clusterfuck that may lead to more people dying than the rise of the Nazis in Germany.

All Fascists Are Just Cowardly Crybaby Bullies At Heart

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, here’s the thing. For all of our good natured fun at the expensive of malignant goober Sen. Josh Hawley, he is one decision away from being extremely close to being POTUS.

If Trump decides to pass over completely insane people like Mike Flynn, or people who would make him feel better like Ivanka, he could very well pick Hawley to be his veep.

If that happens, Hawley is all but assured to be America’s Putin. He’s young enough that 30 years from now — Speaker Hawley will continue to rule America with an iron fist, serving as the autocrat behind any number of puppet presidents. That’s the type of shenanigans that autocratic states tend to do. They fuck with their Constitutions so they can be in power forever, even though the Constitution says they can’t.

I will note, however, that I once read a biography of Sen. Huey Long that said right before he was murdered, he was a big old coward. I don’t remember exactly what he did, but in the process of being assassinated, he did not exactly acquit himself in a manly fashion.

The point is — lulz, nothing matters. We’re either going to become an autocracy, or we’re going to have a civil war. There is no middle ground. That’s it, those are are two choices. I suppose you might also say that there’s a third choice — military junta — but that’s extremely debatable.

We’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. Get out while you still can. At this point, it’s really up to Trump who America’s Putin will turn out to be. I still think it’s at least possible weirdo Mike Flynn might be it. But I also know that Trump has expressed a lot of support for Hawley in the past as well.

It will be interesting to see who Trump picks to finish the job he started.