Category: Cold Civil War

Life In Fascist America, 2026

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about America right now is it’s in something of a luminal space, politically. It’s more an anocracy than an autocracy. We still have some basic rights that the regime doesn’t feel it can attack…but there is definitely a creeping sense of autocracy.

The interesting thing about the American variant of fascism in 2026 is how it’s a movement of decline and retraction, rather than expansion. It’s not like Trump, for all his “I must own Greenland” wants to take over the world.

The key thing to remember is Trump is not a traditional “Great Man.” It’s not like he’s bending history to his will. He is a symptom, not a cause of what the fuck is wrong with the United States at the moment. He’s very much a transitional figure.

I still contend that the whole point of Trump as a public figure is to destroy the existing American Constitutional order to the point that we have to convene a new Constitutional Convention to give people renewed faith and confidence in having a constitution at all.

The old system is failing and a new system is, in fits and starts, being born. In a sense, you could say what we’re witnessing is either the true demise of American democracy or the breached birth of the Third American Republic.

Just don’t know how things are going to work out.

My Take On Events In Minnesota

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s what I think is happening after the tragic murder of Renee Good at the hands of a ICE thug in Minnesota. Trump really wanted to get ahead of things, so the moment he learned what happened, he put out the word as to what the orthodoxy on the subject would be.

The rest took care of itself.

Trump wants to divide us so he can run roughshod over civil society and he’s doing a great job at the moment of just that. So much so, that I’m beginning to doubt that anyone will do anything of note if Trump really fucks with the 2026 midterms.

Sure, people like me will get upset, but, in general the average person, especially “Good Americans” will just bothsides everything or do whataboutism and Trump will effectively cement us as a zomibe democracy — a managed democracy like they have in Hungary.

As such, I don’t see us having a civil war or revolution this year. We’re just going to slide further and further into autocracy. To the point that when Trump runs for an illegal third term in 2028 it will be a lulz for most people, but not me.

Second American Civil War (or Revolution), 2026?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have pontificated so much on the possibility of a civil war or revolution to the point that it’s kind of silly for me to talk about it. But, let’s do it anyway.

I just don’t think there will be a civil war in the United States in 2026. Americans are not French and, as such, they are very, very docile. It takes a lot — A LOT — to rile them up.

The only possible way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war (or revolution) in the USA this year is if Trump actively fucked with the 2026 midterms to the point that he invoked the Insurrection Act or even declared martial law. If he declared martial law and tried to actually cancel the 2026 midterms, then, yes, we will have a civil war in the second half of this year.

But, otherwise, I just don’t see it.

Now, while we’re on the subject, I do think that if Trump ran for an illegal third term in 2028, then, yeah, that would cause a civil war or revolution. Big time. But, at the same time, I think Trump’s personal historical reason to exist on a macro basis is to destroy the existing Constitutional order to the point that we may have to convene a Constitutional Convention to fix things once he finally, finally leaves the stage.

But all of that is very, very speculative.

I will note that I have long thought that if there’s a civil war, it will because Blues have had enough, not because of Reds — why would Reds want a civil war, they’re politically ascendant.

Anyway, I can’t predict the future.

The Long-Predicted Vibe Shift Has, At Last, Happened

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the long, long, long predicted vibe shift has happened. We’re in a new era, it seems. Something shifted in our collective consciousness between Christmas and January.

To the point that just in the first few days of 2026, all hell broke loose both domestically and abroad.

Anyway, who knows what all this means.

I do think that 2026 is going to be a pretty monumental year. Usually odd-numbered years are shit, but I think this year is going to be very turbulent and shocking in ways none of us can predict.

I Just Don’t Think We’re Ever Having Free-And-Fair Elections Again In My Lifetime

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is not governing like he ever expects Republicans to ever be out of office again. And, as such, I think this is it. The USA as we’ve known it for 250 years is over. The end, no more.

For the rest of my life, the USA will become poorer and more introverted while the wealthy grow richer and richer. I will also note that I think Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the Constitutional system to the point that we are forced to hold a Constitutional Convention — at some point — to fix things.

Just imagine of Trump ran for an illegal third term and some (Red) states put him on the ballet, while some (Blue) states did not. If that’s not a recipe for a revolution and or civil war, I don’t know what is.

But, then, I think, Trump and MAGA would finally get what they wanted — the total destruction of what’s left of liberal democracy in America.

Hollywood Is Cooked, I Fear

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If macro, megatrends continue the path they’re on now — Hollywood is totally cooked. To the point that within 10 years, young would-be starlets will go not to Los Angeles and Hollywood, but, instead to New York City and the lights of Broadway.

“Hollywood” as we know it, will be replaced with high quality AI generate media that is indistinguishable from what humans produce today. My go-to scenario is you will be able to come home from work (if those still exist for humans), tell your Knowledge Navigator what you want to see and it will whip up, on the fly, a new Star Wars movie with you as the hero and everything will be only vaguely connected to the broader Star Wars universe.

I’m not being all that original at this point to pontificate on such things, but I do think the only way Hollywood as we current know it exists in 10 to 20 years is specific legal carveouts for humans. That’s it, without carveouts, Hollywood as we know is a sinking ship.

But we live in an era — at the moment — when weak-willed plutocrats run the show in an autocratic social environment, so I have my doubts that even Hollywood could convince, say, Elon Musk, that it is worth saving.

A Free Movie Premise

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s the near future and all taxes are regressive. Instead of anything like an income tax, there’s a national lottery, thousands of government-run casinos and a 30% VAT.

The story would be about a guy who wins, like, a $1 trillion lottery and how this win transformed his life. If you really wanted to go dark comedy about it, at the end of the movie, he’s no better than all the other plutocrats that run the world.

The Recent Murder Of A Woman In Minnesota By An ICE Agent has Enraged Me, But…Lulz?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m kind of the black sheep politically of my family and while I’m enraged by the murder at the hands of an ICE agent of a hapless woman in Minnesota, relative to my conservative (and gracious) relatives…it’s all a lulz.

So, in a sense, I can only get so upsest.

It does, however, make me wonder what Trump could possibly do that would be “bad” in their opinion. What could Trump do that would at least give them pause for thought. As it stands, I can’t think of anything.

Maybe if he started eating people? Having sex with dead people? Marrying Ivanka? Those seem to be the three things left for him to do that maybe, just maybe, might give MAGA people a reason to be a little less supportive.

But, as it stands, it definitely seems as though Trump is a god-emperor in all but name for about 37% of the electorate. He can break the law with impunity, he can do anything, say anything and the base because they hate trans people will support Trump no matter what.

It’s all very surreal.

‘Melted Ice,’ Lyrics To An ‘Ohio’ Like Pop-Rock Protest Song, Written By Grok

(Verse 1)
Sirens cut the midnight quiet
Blue lights flash on barrio walls
They come in waves like winter storms
Kicking doors, no knock, no call

Children hide beneath the bed
Mothers whisper, “Stay down low”
Fathers vanish into black vans
Where the melted ice runs cold

(Pre-Chorus)
They say it’s just the law
They say it’s keeping order
But the cages glow like embers
In the dark along the border

(Chorus)
Melted ice, melted ice
Hearts frozen then cracked wide
How do you look your children in the face
And tell them this is pride?
Melted ice, melted ice
The promise turned to dust
When the badge becomes a blade
And justice turns to rust

(Verse 2)
She was teaching third grade English
He was wiring houses in the heat
Now their names are just case numbers
On a spreadsheet, obsolete

Asylum papers torn to confetti
Dreams scattered on concrete floors
While the news calls it “enforcement”
We call it breaking down the doors

(Pre-Chorus)
They say it’s just procedure
They say it’s nothing new
But every chain-link echo
Screams what we refuse to do

(Chorus)
Melted ice, melted ice
Hearts frozen then cracked wide
How do you look your children in the face
And tell them this is pride?
Melted ice, melted ice
The promise turned to dust
When the badge becomes a blade
And justice turns to rust

(Bridge)
Listen to the buses rolling
Listen to the silence grow
Listen to the names they’re calling
Names we used to know
Somewhere there’s a mother waiting
For a child she’ll never hold
While we scroll past the headlines
And let the story go cold

(Final Chorus – bigger, more urgent)
Melted ice, melted ice
Wake up, it’s not too late
We’re the ones who let it happen
We’re the ones who close the gate
Melted ice, melted ice
Feel it in your bones
When humanity starts melting
No one’s safe, no one’s home

(Outro – quiet, fading)
Melted ice…
Melted ice…
How long will we keep saying
“We didn’t know… we didn’t know…”

Luminal Political Spaces: Anocracy In America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is definitely neither totally fascist nor totally free. Living in such a luminal political space is call an “anocracy.” With the shooting of a hapless driver by ICE today it’s possible Trump may get his chance to invoke the Insurrection Act.

For people like Trump, the Insurrection Act has taken on mythical proportions. They see it as a cure-all to all their woke cancel culture mob problems. Ugh. Anyway, I have long said the only way we get out of this situation is a general strike.

But, alas, not even fucking ICE murdering people in cold blood is going to get us to that point. I think we’re totally and completely fucked.

I think there won’t be free-and-fair elections and this is it. We’re just going to be Trumplandia for the rest of my life. We will get poorer and more fascist as things progress.

It was great living in a free America while it lasted, I guess.