Category: Media

Am I An ‘AI Doomer?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of what I engage with on Twitter, I’m being fed a growing amount of AI community content. What gets me is so many users — young men, presumably — are obsessed with accelerating AI development until we reach Artificial General Intelligence.

AGI would be much like Sam in the movie “Her.” But, given current advancements in robotics, it’s very possible that sexbots will become affordable enough within a decade that Incels will have absolute no reason to ever get anywhere near a living, breathing, biological woman. Ugh!

Before I go any further, I remember what it was like to be a young man transfixed by technology. In my instance, it was the Internet. I was very, very obsessed with every twitch of the Internet revolution when I was in college. It was that obsession that would ultimately lead me to have a very misguided time as a technology manager in the late 1990s.

Anyway, the key thing for me is that there is a good chance that AI will revolutionize humanity’s existence in much the same way that the Internet did, only far, far quicker. Instead of decades of gradual change, it could be years — or months! — of very, very fast change that will be looked back upon as something akin to a Petite Singularity.

As an Old, I just don’t see how anything like AGI being developed is going to help humanity. All these people touting the life of prosperity, luxury and surplus seem to be oblivious to the hateful, cruel nature of capitalism. The only way anyone my have any money in the future is if there’s a Universal Basic Income.

There is a real chance that AGI will cause either massive political and economic disruption or, in the end, there will just be the Poors and the Very Wealthy and that’s it. I continue to believe that MAGA may evolve into an anti-tech movement at some point in the near future.

Am (Almost) Querying: Now What

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has occurred to me that there may be a problem with my plan to have a backup novel that is meant to be a lot more marketable than the main “passion project” novel — the two novels are different genres.

My main “passion project” novel is meant to be an homage to Stieg Larsson’s The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

I don’t know how much of this problem is in my own mind because I’m overthinking things and how much is real. My theory of the case is it will be easier to sell the scifi novel — then I will use the success of that novel as leverage with the thriller novel.

My concern is, of course, that the two novels begin different genres will cause their paths to be mutually exclusive. But I think I’m overthinking things. I think the concept is still valid — if I use one novel to get an agent, I can leverage that success to sell the other novel.

Or, I suppose, I could just throw up my hands in despair because “everything sucks” and I’m too old to ever have any additional success in life. But I’m just not prepared to admit defeat just yet. I’m going to keep going because no one can predict the future.

I’ve learned a lot about developing and writing a novel from the main “passion project” and I’m hoping that those skills will allow me to develop and write a scifi novel far more rapidly than the mystery thriller. I’ve already seen evidence of that with the mystery thriller.

I hope to wrap up an outline of the scifi novel pretty soon. I’m just about to wrap up the latest iteration of the third draft of the novel. Once I wrap that up, then I am going to find myself at a crossroads. I don’t quite know what I’m going to do in the near term, but I’m sure I’ll think of something.

Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.

Normies Aren’t Prepared For The Petite Singularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am well aware that I’m “very online” and I need to touch some grass, but having said that, given how we’re collectively careening towards a “Petite Singularity,” normies are in for a rude awaking in a few years — months?

My middle-aged peer group just is completely oblivious to what’s going on with AI. They barely, barely know anything about ChatGPT. And they’re totally unaware of the advancements in robotics. The moment LLMs can be put into androids, then huge swaths of the economy — knowledge and otherwise — are going to be disrupted.

When LLM-enabled androids are doing such high paying blue collar jobs as plumbing and carpentry….yikes!

The question, of course, is when all of this is going to happen, when it goes mainstream. That is a very curious question. There is a good chance that we are going to have to sort out our politics starting in late 2024, early 2025 first. Once we decide if we’re going to be a MAGA-themed autocracy or not, THEN we will see a lot of technological advancement happening very, very quickly.

One issue is cultural. Are people prepared to share their homes with LLM-powered androids? There are going to have to be a lot of safe-guards in place to prevent androids from using the same tools they use to keep a house clean to bludgeon their owners to death.

It is definitely going to be interesting to see what happens in the near term. And I haven’t even addressed the fact that digital personal assistants will totally disrupt the knowledge economy in ways none of us can possibly predict. I do think, however, that MAGA could very well evolve into an anti-technology movement that demands AI be severely regulated or outlawed altogether.

The Curious Case Of The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two interesting things happened that gave me pause for thought. One was Bill Maher laid out a view some of the issues surrounding the “woke cancel culture mob” that I could not dismiss out of hand. It was nuanced and at first glance at least, seemed to expound upon a view that pretty much fit what any reasonable person might think about the subject.

Mood.

Meanwhile, just in the last few days, Jerry Seinfeld said that he thought that comedy had been chilled a great deal by “woke” people being too easily offended.

These two things have given me pause for thought because I find myself wondering if my views on these subjects are out of step with the “media narrative” and will, as such, cause me to get “canceled” if I ever blow up with my novel money.

I don’t know why I even worry about such things because selling my novel and having any success of note will be like winning the lottery. But, lulz.

It all gets worse when you consider that I have seen a number of people on Twitter get their panties all in a bunch over Seinfeld’s comments. I do believe there is some merit to what he had to say and it doesn’t just stop with comedy. For some reason, the “woke cancel culture mob” also has an extremely puritanical view of heterosexual sex in the arts.

Anyway, I try to be as moderate and empathetic as possible. It would help a great deal if there was nuance in public discourse, but alas, that’s just not how things are these days. Everything is yes / no, black / white and people can get pretty worked up if you don’t adhere to the orthodoxy.

My Backup Scifi Novel Is Beginning To Get Fleshed Out

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am going through my main novel — which I now see as a “passion project” at quite a nice little clip. I hope to wrap up the latest iteration of the third draft in a few weeks. Then I will probably go through and really look carefully at each scene to make absolutely sure that it’s good enough to keep as-is.

Meanwhile, the scifi novel, which I am developing specifically to be as marketable as possible, is coming along as well. I’m using AI to help me develop the novel because I have no friends and no one likes me. I have had decidedly mixed results using AI for development.

Sometimes AI has given me so really good suggestions. Other times, meanwhile, the results have been rather…meh. But, in general, using AI has sped development up significantly because it has given me at least some sort of path as to where I should go. Too often in the past I’ve spent a lot of time just spinning my wheels, not really knowing what I should do.

Anyway, the next step with the “passion project” novel is to save up money for an editor. It’s going to take me a few months because I’m living in poverty. But it will be worth it. I am still rattled by the fact that I managed to scare off one editor I wanted to work with simply because I’m a freaky weirdo.

But I have to accept that within a few months — hopefully no later than July 22nd, 2024, I will begin the querying process for the “passion project” in some way — even if it’s just continuing to save money up for an editor of some sort. I may break down and just start to query the novel if I fear it’s just going to take me too long to get through the editing process.

Everything Is So Fucked Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgerner

Trump is just a symptom of a broader problem in American politics. That is what makes Trump such a curious political figure. He is not a Great Man of history, he’s just a very lucky ding-dong who serves as an avatar for the rage of white Christians (men) who feel disenfranchised on a personal basis by the “woke cancel culture mob.”

That is why American democracy is on the verge of collapse. That is why we’re just one election away from imploding as a nation — not Trump.

All the potential solutions to this particular problem just aren’t applicable anymore. It’s clear that the final showdown between the forces of democracy and fascism is just a matter of time now. It’s not like I want this to happen, but I just can’t see MAGA fading peacefully into political oblivion if we manage to win in 2024.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope that we win in 2024 and MAGA peacefully drifts into political obscurity and that will be that. But, I fear, the best case scenario is Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and everyone just ignores him. Then he turns around an announces for 2028.

The Far Left’s Anger Over The War In Gaza Is Justified, But Leads To Some Extremely Misguided Demands

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The rage against President Biden on the part of Far Left people over the war in Gaza is a prime example of how we live in an age devoid of nuance. These Far Left people are so angry at Biden for his Middle East policies that they openly vow never to vote for him.

This is very, very misguided for a number of reasons.

If we lived in era devoid of any nuance at all, then these Far Left people would make it clear what this threat was about — trying to get Biden to adjust his support for the Israeli government. But, no, they are so bonkers that that they just vow to either vote for Trump, a third party candidate or not vote at all — and then they get really mad when you say you’re going to vote for Biden.

The issue for me is Trump is an existential threat not just to American democracy — but the post World War Two global order. I would much rather have someone sane like Biden in power than deranged ding-dong Trump. And, what’s more, it’s not like Trump is going to turn his back on the Israeli government and support the Palestinians. Trump’s politics are far closer to Bibi Netanyahu than Biden’s.

The motives behind opposing Biden because of Gaza are so ill conceived, conflated and misguided that it’s really difficult to comprehend why anyone would think such a thing. And, yet, that’s the world we live in at the moment. And all of this is happening in the context of the United States careening towards what could be some of the most momentous months in our history starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Fascist Tech Bros Are Lining Up Behind Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If ever there was a sign that America has collectively given up, it’s the way that wealthy tech bros — who should know better — are now all-in for malignant ding-dong Trump. It’s a very curious development, to say the least.

But here we are, with plutocrat and former Paypal HR guy David Sacks arranging a big fundraiser for Trump. The whole thing is surreal. It is staggering to me that people like Sacks who are smart enough to know better, are willing to support someone has racist and dumb as Trump…just because they want lower taxes?

And, yet, that doesn’t really even begin to address the broader problem — Sacks and his ilk are also openly supporting Putin in his war of aggression against Ukraine.

All of this is an eerie replay of what happened with Hitler and German Industrialists who supported him because they thought they could “control him.” It’s all very bonkers.

I don’t know what to tell you. We continue to be in a situation where the 2024 election could go either way. And, if anything, I think that’s the key thing to remember — if every election your democracy has is existential, then you’re not really a democracy anymore.

And that’s the long term issue that the United States faces — a sizable portion of the electorate wants a white Christian ethnostate and that danger isn’t going to end anytime soon, even if we crush Trump at the polls later this year. Even if we manage to defeat Trump in November and he doesn’t start to rant about the need for a National Divorce in an effort to escape prison time, he is probably going to run again in 2028 — even if he has to do it from prison.

Memories Of The Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Writing a novel set “the day after tomorrow” is a lot more difficult than you might think because of how fast the future is rushing towards us. So, I find myself drawing upon a lot of my personal fears about the future and throwing them into the universe I’m building.

There’s a pretty good chance that things will begin to move so quickly that even my wildest dreams about technology may see rather quaint before the novel is even queried. But I like the challenge. It’s fun to see if I can think of really exotic technological problems.

But, in general, the scifi novel I’m working on is getting really interesting. It’s fun to be able to use all these daydreams I’ve been having about the near-term impact of technology and then expounding upon them. It definitely will be interesting to see if the real future beats me and my fictional future.

It is interesting how much I’ve been able to lean into some personal gripes I have about some things that have happened to me in the past. I’ve managed to seamlessly shoehorn some pretty important situations from what happened to me in Seoul in to the novel.

All good stories are true stories. So, there you go.

I’ve been really impressed with how the chatbots I’ve been using to aid in development of this novel have been really good at helping me improve the treatment I’m working on. I’m doing all of this in a vacuum – yet again — so I’m forced to use AI just to have some sense of what to do with the overall story.