The New Republic’s Post-Election Scenario 2: ‘Tilts Toward The Civil War Scenario’

Here’s the second of The New Republic’s post-election scenarios.
Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Republicans win the House.

If Biden wins the election but Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives, it is very likely that Speaker Mike Johnson will refuse to certify the election, invoking the Twelfth Amendment to decide the election. This lets the House of Representatives—the one elected in November—determine the outcome, and each state gets one vote. That vote is decided by which party controls the majority of House seats elected by that state. Using that method, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to have 26 votes, and Trump becomes president. The only thing that might stop this is a few moderate Republicans in the House being unwilling to go along with such a plan, but most of them have already left. Remember: Two-thirds of Republicans in the House refused to vote to certify the election in 2020.

It’s also unlikely that the Supreme Court (which is already seen as illegitimate by a large percentage of the public after the shenanigans Republicans used to get a 6–3 majority, and after the Dobbs decision) will overturn this scheme, since it technically follows the rules. As a result, most people in blue states are likely to reject the legitimacy of the (gerrymandered) House Republican majority, the president, and the Supreme Court. Governors in blue states will be under intense pressure from their constituents, particularly those who fear for their lives if Trump takes power again, to reject the legitimacy of a Trump administration, much less give in to its extreme agenda.

This outcome results in the most intense “antibodies” being generated at the fastest rate possible. The immune system generates antibodies in response to a perceived viral or bacterial threat, and the greater the threat it perceives, the more vigorous the response is. So it is with political resistance: The more people perceive a second Trump administration to be an existential threat to their lives, the more they will resist.

Trump’s response will likely be to invoke the Insurrection Act and put down any resistance to his administration with the military. If this results in fatalities and mass detentions, it will probably only exacerbate the situation, leading to many people on both the left and right concluding that violence is the only viable option for change, resistance, or as a response to resistance. Right-wing elements have long been itching to use violence to put “those people” in their place. But the missing ingredient for a civil war is people on the left concluding that the only possible way to preserve themselves is violence. The outcome tilts toward the civil war scenario more than any of the other election outcomes.

By Shelt garner
@sheltgarner

I clearly think that civil war is a lot more possible than the author of these scenarios. In fact, I think it’s not civil war we have to worry about so much as a revolution then a civil war. If Trump wins and goes full tyrant on us, all bets are off. Trump is such a unique figure in American political history that he could, unto himself, cause a revolution and then a civil war.

If he starts to round up 20 million people and use the National Guard of Red States in Blue States….oh boy. That is a recipe for disaster. If people in Blue States begin to feel like they’re being lorded over by Trump and MAGA like he’s some sort of fucking Mad Red King his actions could prompt what would otherwise be impossible – a successful Blue General Strike.

If that happened and the U.S. Military somehow, magically decided to depose Trump and his Veep, then that, unto itself, would cause a civil war because Red States would then leave the Union in protest.

It all sounds very hysterical event to me, but, lulz, who knows.

The New Republic Post-Election Scenario 1: ‘A Nation In Name Only’

This is my reaction to this scenario put forth by The New Republic about four potential post-election scenarios.
Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Democrats win the House.

This is the best-case scenario for Democrats, and probably the country, and it looks like a repeat of 2020. Trump and Republicans will allege fraud and rigged elections. They’ll try to block certification at the county, state, and federal levels, resulting in court cases that generally go nowhere. Trump followers will be incited to violence, which is likely to be more successfully put down than January 6, 2021 (which had the element of surprise and a supportive president). Even if the Senate is controlled by Republicans, there are still enough institutionalists who will vote to certify when Congress meets in joint session on January 6, 2025, to certify the results. Minority Leader Mike Johnson may try to stop the incoming Democratic majority from being seated on January 3, but he probably won’t be able to because the Constitution doesn’t allow for him to refuse to do that.

Thus, after chaos that looks a lot like 2020 (only more intense, widespread, and gaining more support from state-level Republicans), Biden gets sworn in on January 20, 2025, to govern a nation where over half the states don’t accept his legitimacy. Red states will flout federal authority at every turn, daring a crackdown, much as Texas has done over Eagle Pass and immigration. The Supreme Court won’t do much to thwart Christian nationalists, who are increasingly calling for “dual sovereignty” and implementation of “a Scripture-based system of government whereby Christ-ordained ‘civil magistrates’ exercise authority over the American public.” Even if the Supreme Court rules against states that resist the federal government, they are likely to dare the Biden administration to actually enforce those rulings. Right-wing violence, like that described by Stephen Marche and Barbara F. Walter, is likely. The result is a United States that is one country in name only.

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is a pretty good scenario. But I have long proposed that even under this “rosy” scenario, there could be a civil war because, well, Trump and MAGA could very well just steal the election even if Biden wins.

Here is my own scenario, similar to the one above that I wrote some time ago.

There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.

What’s Going On With Trump & Little Marco?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In a curious development that none of us expected, Trump apparently is keen on making “Little Marco” Rubio his 2024 veep. I find this very curious for a number of reasons.

But, in a sense, it makes sense — Trump wants to win, so he, just like he did with Pence, he will pick a traditional pol to be his toady and stooge. And, yet, you would think that in his animal brain, Trump would be more open to someone like Mike Flynn as his veep as a type of insurance against getting impeached.

All I know is, the next 18 months are going to be bumpy one way or another and we have to prepare for it.

How Biden May Finally Get Impeached

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are two possible ways that Biden will finally be impeached.

  1. Comer and his merry band of GQP ding-dongs just do it
    In this scenario, House Republicans decide to just force a vote as close as possible to the election so when low information voters are headed to the polls they will think “well, both candidates have been impeached, so, fascism here we come.”
  2. A Black Swan
    In this scenario, some random scandal that would otherwise no big that big a deal will lead directly to impeachment because, lulz, the country is so tightly wound, so highly partisan — and seemingly on the cusp of civil war — that if Biden does actually do something vaguely improper, he will be impeached by the House.

    We’ll see, I guess.

America May Be Finally Felled By…Vibes?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of the moment is how the vibes are off in America, no matter how well the economy is actually doing. People are just unhappy and grumpy. It makes you wonder what the fuck is going on in America, why this is the case.

It definitely seems as though we’re going to vote malignant ding-dong Donald Trump back into office because we have just given up because of bad vibes. And, yet, as I have said before, I think maybe we should not fear this particular situation, but embrace it.

I say this because — we’re fucked.

Because of long term macro demographic changes in the United States, the Republican Party is now a pure, uncut fascist party. And, really, it’s just a matter of time that because of the ebb and flow of any semi-functioning democracy that one of the two major parties will get power again.

As such, of all the people to attempt to transition us into a fascist autocracy, Trump is probably the “best” of the available options. And, given how bad he will be in his tyranny, maybe….the good guys will win sooner rather than later?

I’m not advocating anything, but if I had to organize an General Strike against a American tyrant, I should would rather do it against Red King Trump I than anyone else who might be available.

But, hopefully, it won’t come to that.

American Orbanism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The crux of what Republicans want to bring to America is the idea that people will assume the system is so rigged against the center-Left that they will just give up. Now, one key issue is Trump is so stupid and lazy — and so prone to trashing around in his tyranny — that the case could be made that he is the absolute worst person to attempt to bring Hungary-style autocracy or “Orbanism” to America.

He’s more likely to piss everyone off so much that there’s a revolution / civil war than there is any sort of peaceful slide into autocracy. But what would it look like if he — or someone like him — did bring Orbanism to America?

Well, I don’t know that much about Orbanism, but from what I know about autocracy, it seems two things would change overnight in Orbanistic America — the end of Birthright Citizenship and a lot of media conglomerates would magically be aligned with the autocrat.

As such, I could see a purge of late night talk show hosts. All the liberal leaning talk show hosts would be replaced, may gradually, maybe all at once, with “centrists” who either didn’t talk about politics at all or who wallowed in sucking at the teet of the autocrat.

Meanwhile, once Birthright Citizenship is gone, then you have to worry about “showing your papers” if you get in trouble with the state. Once of the first things the Nazis did when they were in power was to narrow who constituted a “citizen.” There’s every reason to believe the same thing will happen the moment Republicans can make that a reality.

I will note, however, what a bad and weak candidate Trump is at the moment. But for how racism and misogyny are warping our politics and the Electoral College, Biden would win in a blow out this fall.

We Have To Take Trump’s Continued Stochastic Terrorism Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is a curious historic figure because he’s so stupid that he can’t even put enough brain cells together to do the most basic of sneaky tyrannical things when given his first opportunity, while at the same time is wily enough to destroy everything whenever he gets a second chance.


So the latest thing that Trump has done is to yet again dip into the stochastic terrorism well. We have to take this seriously because he knows exactly what he’s doing — putting the idea of a “bloodbath” into the mind of his supporters if he doesn’t win later this year.

This is something I have been talking and writing about over and over and over again. We have to worry about Trump causing a civil war if he wins OR if he loses. He’s such a weird, divisive figure in our political history that just by existing — and acting as the avatar for the MAGA fascist movement that he is very, very destabilizing.

It all boils down to one issue — if we’re pushed to the bring, are we going to stop yelling at each other and start to…shoot at each other? I really don’t want any political violence of any sort, but I am very, very worried.

Trumplandia 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a number of basic problems with Trump’s dreams of making America a dystopian hellscape and deporting 20 million people. Let’s go through them.

Building Out Infrastructure
To do what Trump wants to do, which is deport at least 1 million people a year (if I’ve heard correctly), he would need some sort of infrastructure to do that. I’ve heard that one option he’s thinking of us weaponizing the National Guard of Red States to swoop in and snatch people off the street in Blue States. I’m sure THAT will go well. Ugh.

Rounding Up People

The next issue is actually tracking down and snatching people off the street to put them in the camp. Talk about bad optics. Even if the press is no longer free, people will see with their own two eyes people being napped by Red State National Guard — who might be ordered to shoot anyone who stands in the way. That, unto itself, would add a lot of complications.

Housing and Feeding People (Camps)
Once you get all your people into camps, how are you going to feed them and make sure the camps…don’t turn into concentration camps? What if there are riots at the camps? What then? What if there are American citizens who got somehow sucked into these campus? What then?

Repatriation
Many of the people you are rounding up and sending back to their home countries have never actually been in those countries for decades. And some of them were born in the US and because you’re a dick, by 2025 you’ve done away with birthright citizenship, you’re sending them back to where their PARENTS came from. What happens if you can’t repatriate a lot of them? Are you just going to keep them housed the camps forever? Won’t you be tempted to….solve that particular problem?

Whenever I’ve brought up these issues in the past with my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — they just wave them off and say they will “somehow” be addressed. These are not abstract issues for me — I could very well see me getting put into one of those camps for no other reason than I won’t shut the fuck up about what a cocksucker Tyrant Trump is.

I Bet The New York Times’ Ezra Klein Flees The Country If Trump Wins Re-Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Of all the smug social media liberals who will flee the country if Trump wins re-election, I think Ezra Klein is at the top of the list. He’s just the type of intellectual soyboy who will talk a big game but will, rather than help use his abilities to protect democracy, will bounce out of the country the moment it’s clear Trump is going to become POTUS again.

He will leave the far less wealthy and educated Poors like me to our own devices as Trump swoops in a begins to, in a very ham-handed manner, consolidate power and go full tyrant.

Oh Jesus, this Search Engine podcast I’m listening to that Klein is the guest on is both informative and extremely grating on the nerves. It’s bunch of smug social media liberals who look down on freaky weirdos like me talk to each other about smug, social media liberal things.

UGH.

Something about all the fey, soboy voices on Search Engine really grates on my nerves, too. Like, pick up a barbell or something. It’s these rare times like this that I “get” why people listen to Joe Rogan. UUUUHHHHH. Being traditionally masculine isn’t, by definition, a bad thing, you know.

Apocalypse 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I don’t know what to tell you, folks. I sometimes think it’s better to get it over with and let Trump win in 2024 and take our chances. I say this not because I want Trump to win, but the fact that if he loses in 2024, we’re just going to punt our problems down the road like we did in 2020.

Trump will be the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination if he loses in 2024 and doesn’t manage to start a civil war in the process. So, why not just have at it.

Trump, unto himself, could cause some pretty catastrophic things to happen in the United States. It will not be pretty. It will be jaw dropping and dystopian. I no longer have any hope that the good guys will win, either, not without a civil war.

So, pray.