Category: The Resistance

The Real Threat In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for late 2024, early 2025 has nothing to do with another January 6th type situation. The real danger is that, on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has grown so radical that if Trump somehow magically manages to lose the 2024 election that they will begin to leave the Union.

As such, people who are focusing on some sort of repeat of January 6th are totally missing the point. The is a real risk of a Second American Civil War if Trump loses in 2024.

Let me be clear — at the moment, in July 2023 — I just don’t see Trump losing. He’s going to win and he — and his successor — will lurch American into a Russian-style autocracy. I say this because Trump’s fate remains in the hands of 60,000 voters in five swing states.

That’s it.

So, baring something I can’t predict, Trump is the next president of the United States and he’s going to be a tyrant and a thug in ways that are unprecedented in American history. And, remember, Biden is very old. And history is replete with instances where the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen, happens.

So it is VERY EASY to imagine that Biden, tragically, shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between when the 2024 ballots are printed and Certification Day. If such a thing happened, mass chaos would ensue. The last time any such thing happened was in 1872 and the solution wasn’t great — they equally distributed the dead guys Electoral Votes among everyone else.

Yikes!

Anyway, if Trump does somehow manage to lose, there is a real risk that we’re going to have a civil war. The greatest, most powerful nation in the world, is going to destroy itself because of “vibes.”

The other alternative is, of course, Trump wins and we have something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.” I seriously doubt such a thing would happen — too many of the people who would otherwise spear head such a historic event will simply bounce — but it’s at least possible, I guess. If it happened, Blues across the country would actively work to prevent tyrant and thug Trump from becoming president.

If we’re lucky, it would be a “Glorious Revolution” if we’re not…oh fucking boy.

Tiny D is Such A Fucking Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Ron DeSantis is he will be an American Putin if he is elected POTUS. I say this because the Republican Party is a fascist party now and, by definition, our next Republican president will be an American Autocrat. And there really isn’t much we can do about it unless there’s something along the lines of a Resistance Revolution.

The great irony is, of course, that ding-dong Trump is so stupid, so lazy that he simply was not able to do what he was originally elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat. Trump is well on his way to getting another shot at being an autocrat and this time, in 2024 – 2025, he’s probably going to be successful. There is, of course, a greater-than-zero chance that, like I said, there will be something akin to a revolution (Blues) or a civil war (Reds) no matter what happens in 2024.

But let’s get back to Tiny D, who tweeted this:

The hissy fit that fucking fascists like Ron DeSantis have over ESG is as stereotypical as it is depressing. Tiny D’s attack on ESG is a prime example of how we’re careening into fascism. There’s no going back. And the only way we don’t slide into autocracy be it through President DeSantis or Ding-Dong Trump, is something akin to a revolution.

And I hate violence. So, lulz, I would prefer we just slide peacefully into fascism that have any sort of violence. But the key issue that I have to accept if we go that path is things are going to get personal — ICE agents will be weaponized and either I get rounded up and put into a Trump-branded camp or just get a bullet in the back of the head.

I say this because I’ve really had the luxury of living in the Western liberal democracy. And when that is no longer the case, I’m not going to change my behavior — I’m never going to shut up.

Where’s Our Vibe Shift?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be that culture could change a lot just within the course of one decade. As late as the 1980s, early 80s was very different than mid or late 80s. And, yet, it definitely seems as though since 2001, cultural shifts haven’t happened as rapidly.

I’m old enough that if I look back over the last 20 years, I struggle to see how there has been any sort of major vibe shift. Yes, there have been blips of change here and there since 2001, but, in general any cultural changes have been rather subtle.

At some point over the last 20 years, something changed.

Could it have been the advent of social media because of the smartphone? Is that what caused everything to change? It’s all very curious. Or is it possible that we’re really, really overdue for a severe vibe shift.

And as such, maybe 2024 really is it?

Could it be that because of both the Petite Singularity and The Fourth Turning may happen at the same time in late 2024, early 2025 that, unto itself, could be the Vibe Shift that we’ve all been expecting. Maybe?

But it is very curious. Someone should write a 10,000 word New Yorker piece about this shit.

2024: A Perfect Storm

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems like everything is going to come to a head in 2024. Developments in AI will combine with the put up or shut up political moment of late 2024 – early 2025 and the fate of the entire world — of all of humanity — could be decided starting in 2024.

I say this because if the US collapses — or even simply peacefully transitions into an America First autocracy — everything is going to be upended. Talk about a New World Order! If the US leaves NATO and aligns itself with other autocratic states like Russia, Hungary and Turkey, then, that, unto itself could prompt WW3 to happen — killing about 1 billion people one way or another.

If America collapses into the chaos of civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) the same thing will happen — a billion people will die (at least.) If all of this happens, then the issue of AI will be punted down the road until America figures out of it’s going to become Trumplandia or if we’re going to establish the Third American Republic.

At the moment, it really could go either way. It really the fuck could. No fate but what we make and all that.

But if a Third American Republic is established, THEN the issues of global climate change and AI could be addressed collectively by humans as a species. That, at least, would be the idea endgame.

And, yet, humans are dumb and it could be that not even a New World Order after WW3 could get us to get our act together enough to address, collectively some Big Issues that face Humans.

But, I guess, we’ll see, huh?

2023: The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This year, 2023, is really beginning to have a “quiet before the storm” vibe to it. The signs are everywhere that our political system is collapsing before our very eyes to the point that I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the passions of the 2024 election.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. We’re either going to turn into an autocracy when Trump wins or he wins and we have a “Resistance Revolution” in response. Or he loses and he demands a civil war. There just doesn’t seem to be any “Third Way” that allow us to punt some severe, macro problems down the road another four years.

I saw someone today that really alarmed me — he definitely looked like someone who would murder me in cold blood in late 2024, early 2025 if the country collapses into anarchy because there’s either a civil war going on because Trump has lost or a Resistance Revolution going on because he’s won and Blues have managed to stop sucking their own cocks long enough to actually fight back. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

And, yet, I said the same sort of shit about 2020 and….nothing happened other than the January 6th Insurrection. And, I’m always, always wrong. So…maybe somehow, someway we will manage to eek through 2024 without either turning into an autocracy or having a revolution / civil war? Maybe?

It will definitely be interesting to see one way or another.

If Trump Doesn’t Win In 2024, He’s Going To Start A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that Republicans are wilfully oblivious about is not only is Trump going to be the nominee, but if he does lose in 2024, he’s going to single-handedly start a civil war. And if he wins, he may cause a Blue revolt that will be marketed as a “Resistance Revolution.”

The point is — 2024 is it. It’s the year a lot of macro trends come a head, just as the pseudo-science book The Fourth Turning predicts. And, at the moment, it seems like Trump is going win in 2024 — or start a civil war if he doesn’t. Trump is an avatar for a LOT of macro problems in American politics and, as such, we can’t just keep punting these problems down the road.

The Second American Republic, the one founded by Lincoln upon his death, is just about to end and either we turn into an American Autocracy or we have some sort of rebirth into a Third American Republic. At the moment, it could go either way.

My bet is this is it, Trump wins and he and his eventual successor turn us into something akin to Russia, Hungary or Turkey. There might be a WW3 along the way as we transition into an autocracy as well.

But I do think that if Trump loses — as all these well meaning Republicans seem to think in private — we’re going to have a civil war, probably with Texas being the first state to leave the Union. And, add into the equation how fucking old Biden is and…oh boy.

Anyway. Get out of the country while you can, if you have the means.

Yet More Literary Existential Angst

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got some blood work back today and it indicated that I have high cholesterol — a leading cause of heart attack and stroke. Which, of course, makes me think of how Stieg Larsson died just as he learned he had gotten a book deal. I’m the same age he was when he died of a heart attack and I still have about a year left before I will start querying.

What gets me is that even if I stick the landing with this novel that because of post-production, I could be 55 or 56 before I’m a published author. That really gives me pause for thought when I realize I may drop dead at any moment from a heart attack or stroke.

And, what’s more, there is the issue of what the fuck is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025 just about the time I’m going to start querying my first novel aggressively. It could be that the either we’re slipping into autocracy or we are about to have a civil war or revolution just as I’m doing that.

I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war or revolution. I think Trump is going to win and that will be that. He will use Schedule F to turn us into an autocracy and I’ll have to start to seriously think about how I’m going to escape an ICE agent putting a bullet in the back of my head.

And, YET, given that it was my anger over Trump that caused me to start working on this six novel project in the first place, the case could be made that if some agent learns the nature and overarching subtext of these six novels that they might be more interested in buying the first novel.

The subtext of these six novels is I fucking hate MAGA with a white hot rage to the point that I’m willing to write six novels that let me rant about how much I hate political extremism.

Anyway, we’re totally fucked. I just don’t see any “third way” like what happened in 2020. Something really unexpected will have to happen pretty quick. Trumpism has gone septic and this is it — America is going to be an autocracy starting in 2025.

Taking The Prospect Of A ‘Resistance Revolution’ in Late 2024 – Early 2025 Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I hate violence! So, think of this as just some mental masturbation that is toying with the abstract idea of there being some sort of “Glorious Revolution” in the United States in late 2024, early 2025 in reaction to the ding-dong thug and tyrant Trump becoming POTUS again.

First, the reason why I’ve latched on to the idea of a “revolution” rather than a “civil war” is, lulz, I don’t want to leave the US. I love America and what I want is an opportunity found a Third American Republic, not build a new, separate one from scratch.

It’s take me a loooooong time to realize what it was I wanted. It took so long because I was confused and distracted by all the talk about a “National Divorce.” It took me a long time to realize that I don’t want a National Divorce! I just want the opportunity to force through some much-needed political reforms.

So, in my mind a “Resistance Revolution” would begin not with a lot of Blue States deciding to leave the Union, but something far more broad in scope. The issue would not be state level objection to the establishment of “Trumplandia” but, rather millions of individuals across the country take a stand and refusing to allow a tyrant ding-dong like Trump from seizing and consolidating power in the first place.

But as I keep saying, I just don’t think that’s even going to come anywhere near happening. At the moment, at least, it just doesn’t seem viable. Trump is going to win in 2024 and we turn into a MAGA Nazi-themed autocracy soon there after.

I just hope my Trump-branded concentration camp has Wifi.

‘Magadonia:’ We Have To Take The Prospect of American Autocracy Starting in 2025 Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing to mull whenever the idea of “American Autocracy” is broached is how quickly and peaceful the transition might be. That would be when the autocracy is at its weakest — when the consolidation of power occurs. It’s as our long-term political infection finally goes septic that there is a put up or shut up moment.

The issue is, the United States is at the moment a huge nation that has a strong democratic tradition and is pretty decentralized. Many — many — people have some pretty basic assumptions about their relationship to the government and if as we transition into an autocracy that were to change in a quick, dramatic fashion….holy shit.

It could be, however, that I’m over thinking things. The core group of people who would otherwise be the ideological tip of the spear against autocratic “Magdonia” will slip out of the country and move to the south of France where they will continue to the smug liberal celebrity podcast grift without blinking an eye. Those “Smartless” episodes aren’t going to produce themselves, you know.

So, at the moment, I think Trump wins re-election and that’s that — America begins its transition into an autocracy. And, in the end, it will be not Trump but his successor who is our “Augustus.”

In fact, I will be quite stunned if Blues can get their act together enough to really try to put a stake through the heart of the autocracy that is beginning to grow within the American political system. In short, we’re fucked.

Get out while you still can.

I Don’t Think People Realize How Serious The Stakes of The 2024 Election Are

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the 2016 election is people voted for an autocrat and what they got was a dumb, lazy, ding-dong who had no idea what he was doing. He just thrashed around, yelling to the point that he could not do something as simple as steal the 2020 election.

F

With that in mind, he and his toadies, according to The New York Times, have decided to do all kinds of things in 2025 once they’re in power again. Apparently, they’re going to purge the government of the “deep state” and pretty much turn us into Russia.

As such, late 2024, early 2025 is probably going to be lit. The issue is, what are we going to do about it? At the moment, I think nothing is going to happen. Smug, wealthy liberals will use their second passport they got through their refugee grandparents and simply flee the country — probably Europe. So, there will be a massive America diaspora that could radically change world culture. I just don’t think the people who would lead any “Blue Revolution” or “Resistance Revolution” have it in them to do it.

But I suppose there is a greater-than-zero-sum possibility that something like that might happen. I hate violence to much to support any such thing, but on a purely abstract basis, it is an intriguing possibility. I continue to worry about Mike Flynn’s brother, who in charge of U.S. Pacific Command. If there was any sort of “Resistance Revolution” he would be in a position to help squash it. UGH.

The crazy part of all of this is even if The Good Guys win in 2024, there is a good chance that rather than a revolution, we’ll have a civil war as Reds decide to leave the Union.

The point is — my long-held prediction that late 2024, early 2025 is going to be a shitshow is holding up.