Shit Is About To Get Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just try to be the best person I can be. But I am well aware of not only how gratuitous and conspicuous my kooky ranting about Trump has been, but how now there may be….consequences for me doing that.

If I don’t get in trouble with Tyrant Trump in early 2025, it’s possible I’m going to get in trouble with the Feds in some way because of the aftermath of the grazing of Trump. I’m being really paranoid, but it’s at least possible. I’ve made it clear how much I hate violence — repeatedly — but I am a kook and everyone hates kooks, especially when people are scared.

So, who knows.

It could go either way. One side — or the other — could very well come at me sooner rather than later for my views. I have my doubts that it will be the Biden Administration because they’re not fascists, but Trump….oh boy. He DEFINTLY will come after cranks like me in 2025.

I suppose my best hope is to use some sort of Underground Railroad to get out the fascist USA sometime starting in early 2025, if Trump wins. Or, it could be that the whole country buckles and, well, things get a lot darker than I first imagined.

What’s more, it’s beginning to dawn on me that even if I write, like, the fucking American Bible, my chances of ever getting published — because of what a kook I am — aren’t exactly great. But I still believe we give meaning to life by creation, so lulz.

Was The Trump ‘Graze’ A ‘False Flag?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No, of course it wasn’t, and I’m going to attempt to show you why. First, while on paper it would make a lot of sense for Trump to fake an assassination attempt, apparently the shooter wasn’t even MAGA. So, it’s not like he was willing to “take one for the team,” as it were.

He was just a young local deranged Republican who was a really bad shot.

So, it’s difficult for me to imagine that the Secret Service, in cahoots with the Trump campaign, would trust that they could just do their job really bad and someone like THAT might happen to come around. And, even if they did prompt the deranged kid to do it….the questions and problems escalate dramatically.

I do think that there was probably a lot of negligence on the part of Secret Service. Or something. But I just don’t see the organization — which is in the bag for Trump and MAGA — doing something so risky, even if it would clearly help Trump win the election if it worked.

There is just too much of a chance that it WOULDN’T WORK and you’d end up with Trump that was…incapacitated…which would be the opposite of the plot in the first place

About 38% Of The American Electorate Wants A Fascist White Christian Ethnostate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Boy, are we fucked — specifically because of the Electoral College. Even though only about 38% of the electorate wants a fascist state, that’s enough, because of the Electoral College, to take over the country.

Now, this is where things get….uhhhh….dark.

There is a big difference between the abstract of Blues living under the yoke of MAGA Project 2025 tyranny and actually living under it. And this is the point where I have to absolutely stress that I DO NOT WANT ANY VIOLENCE.

I’m just making my personal abstract fears concrete. I hate the idea of just having this general feeling of dread. I like to have some idea of WHAT I’m afraid of.

So, I’m telling both you and myself in all these posts I do on the subject.

But the case could be made that should Trump be elected and go full tyrant in a very ham-handed bonkers way, that there will be a collected effort on the part of Blues to depose him — probably starting with some sort of General Strike. And it could be just women, specifically, who really fucking hate Trump as a group, who just throw up their hands in Blue states and say, “Fuck that, I’m not going to work until that motherfucker isn’t president anymore.”

Or something like that.

All of this is extremely speculative on my part. It could be that Trump goes full tyrant and rather than any effort to depose him, about 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country instead.

Who knows. I can’t predict the future. But I AM very uneasy about the future.

Why The USA Is So Unstable At The Moment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s clear that the USA is lurching towards a very dark future. But there is a specific reason — MAGA fascism is ascendant. Millions of people across America really do want to live in a white Christian ethnostate.

They really do.

That’s the vision they have for America, collectively.

The problem is two fold. The Electoral College exists AND the we enjoy a Federal form of government. The presence of a radical, absolutist movement like MAGA fascism is a “Not great, Bob,” situation for an otherwise prosperous democracy like ours.

So, it definitely does seem like there’s a chance that no matter who wins in the fall that the USA will buckle. At this point, with tonight’s unexpected events, it definitely seems as though Trump will win and it will be Blues who rebel against Trump when he goes full tyrant.

But knows, maybe Trump will lose, rant about the need for a National Divorce and no one will listen to him. I can’t predict the future.

Hopefully, Everything Will Calm Down Tonight

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. Hopefully, everything will work out and all my dystopian nightmares won’t happen.

I hope.


I feel so embarrassed that I missed how much better this photo is because of the flag in it. Oh well. I guess that’s why I never made it as a newspaper man.

This Is The First Time I’ve Felt Unsafe As A Blue In A Very Red Part of Virginia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am well aware of how paranoid this sounds, but I live in a deeply Red part of Virginia. I’m a very Blue person and tonight’s events with Trump leave me very….uhhhh…uneasy.

I just feel like locking my doors and staying in for the night until I get some sense of how everything is going to play out. What’s concerning is a more extreme version of this is what we might expect if the country buckles in late 2024, early 2025.

And it could happen regardless of which side wins.

I’m just nervous that this is a ping from a very, very, very dark future. One I have ranted about for what seems like an eternity. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once. We may be about to find out.

My Head Hurts

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What happened tonight is very, very bad — over and above the physical threat Trump faced. The politics of Trump not only being nearly assassinated but also getting this picture out of the whole thing are astonishing:


Anyway. My gut reaction is this helps Trump. That he’s going to crush the Blues and….that’s it, he goes full tyrant through Project 2025 and….yikes. Or something. But, and this brings me no joy, the night is young. MAGA isn’t exactly know for its calm, relaxed reaction to things like this.

I don’t want anything bad to happen to anyone. I just want everyone to calm the fuck down. Blues have an election to win. I do think that Biden needs to drop out — NOW.

Civil War / Revolution Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I keep writing about this over and over again. Here are three examples of me writing about the same thing — various scenarios involving a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Trump Wins
In this scenario, Trump wins one way or another and his second term agenda is so absolutely vengeful and radical that Blue states, probably starting with California, begin to leave the Union. To me, at the moment, this seems the most likely scenario. If a civil war happens, it’s going to happen because Blues, not Reds, get fed up and head for the exits.

Trump Loses
In this scenario, Trump LOSES one way or another and when he begins to rant at the top of his lungs that Red states need to do something about it, states like Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and Florida see who can be the first out the door. Of course, being center-Left this is the scenario that makes me feel the best. Even though I don’t want a civil war — I hate violence of any sort — I’d rather not have to be the one to rationalize why my side decided to destroy the country I love so much.

Honorable mention is somehow, someway Biden manages to pick just the wrong moment to shuffle off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day and….oh boy. Mass chaos!

But maybe I’m wrong as I keep being told. Maybe MAGA really will, because of demographic trends, fade into oblivion and that will be that.

Dystopia: The Bad Guys Win
In this scenario, there is no impeachment, no nothing. All the lying works and the United States settles into a Russia like “managed democracy.” The Resistance kind of peters out simply from outrage burnout if nothing else. The States will become not-so-quasi-autocracy and will be so for the foreseeable future. This will all come about when we prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that there was collusion between Trump’s Campaign and the Russians and the Vichy Republicans just shrug and because of gerrymandering and dark money nothing changes. Nothing changes at all.

2. Things snap back into place
Now, when I say this, I mean it in the context of general trends that have been ebbing and flowing in American history for decades. So, while it’s possible that things will “snap back into place,” it’s not like our gradual march towards a quasi-autocracy in all but name isn’t going to continue. That’s just a problem with late-era empires like ours. But, if we’re lucky, Trump might be a one term president and the next president will pick up the pieces and we’ll just look back at this four year period as a very strange aberration in our history.

3. Progressive Revolution
One intriguing possibility in all of this is the possibility that The Resistance will decisively defeat Trumplandia and the pendulum will swing to the center-Left in a big way. So big, in fact, that a lot progressive goals will be achieved during the heady days after the defeat. Constitutional amendments will be passed, reforms will be enacted. It will be looked back upon as a Second Reconstruction.

4. Hot Civil War
It is very possible that the only way that there will be a end to the Cold Civil War between Trumplandia and The Resistance will an actual, hot Civil War where people die and get hurt. I have my doubts about this possibility, but it’s very real. I don’t know how it would work out. It’s a struggle to imagine how an actual Civil War would play out in modern America.

5. Stalemate / Trumplandia burnout
It could be that this will be a chronic problem for the next eight years. That the lying will work, but only so much. The problems with the system will be just enough to get Trump re-elected, but not enough to allow him to do serious, long-term damage to the Republic. He’ll leave office, a Democrat will come in and everything will gradually just continue as it has been, only with the continuing sector of Trumplandia in the background.

I can’t predict the future. And I have no special insight into what may — or may not — happen in late 2024, early 2025. But at the moment, just around July 4th, 2024, I would say, yes, the USA is probably going to have a civil war soon.

I say this because we have a few scenarios ahead of us:

  1. Trump loses — no civil war
  2. Trump loses — civil war
  3. Trump wins — Project 2025 happens peacefully
  4. Trump and is deposed by Blues — civil war
  5. Trump wins, Project 2025 is too radical and Blues leave before he’s sworn in

    I have no idea of any of these might actually happen. But I am worried that they might. I’ve written so much about all of this over the last four years that I don’t know if there’s anymore for me to say at this point.

    Now, we just wait and see.

August Looms

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

August is the worst month of the year, by far. It’s so bad that Slate, long ago, proposed abolishing the month altogether. Usually, a lot — a lot — of horrible things happen in August for no other reason than the elites are all on vacation and nepobaby interns are holding down the fort.

There are many, many, MANY horrible things that could happen this August. The chief amongst them would be something to with either Biden or Trump. When it comes to the latter, I’m really worried because there’s absolutely no way that man could peacefully shuffle off this mortal coil without a huge freak out on the part of the MAGA mob.

And, remember, Trump is just an avatar of a general trends in our political system. He’s pretty much done what he was meant to do — be something of an autocratic transitional figure. There are a dozen or more would-be MAGA autocrats who are chomping at the bit, hoping to finish what Trump started.

Anyway, hopefully — hopefully — this time round maybe nothing bad will happen in August.

Could It Be Ivanka?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve already written at great length about how Ivanka might be a perfect veep candidate for Trump, but it seems as though the arguments I’ve made remain. She is perceived to be “moderate.” She would keep things in the family. She’s a woman.

The list goes on.

And, from a marketing standpoint, Trump could call the ticket “TnT” or some such bullshit. Anyway, I have no idea what is going to happen. All I want to do is finish my novel(s.) Just let me do that, fates. That’s all I ask of you at the moment.