Category: The Resistance

How, Exactly, Does Trump Plan To Be a Dictator?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Malignant ding-dong has made it clear that he wants to be a dictator at least for “one day.” And I get that the is working on using Schedule F and Agenda 47 to further that goal.

But.

Maybe Blues should become Blue Meanies.

The issue is even Putin gradually became the autocrat that we now know him to be. It took him a few years to consolidate power. If Trump just rushes into things in 2025 and starts to act like a dictator, I struggle to figure out how far he can get. I am well aware of how you can have a zombie “managed democracy” autocracy, but Trump is so, so very dumb and lazy that if he starts to do a major power grab in the first few days of his second term — there is going to be a reaction.

Now, some context.

The Traditionalists I know love Trump’s policies, but don’t like him in large part because they think he’s a “loser” who can’t win a general. If he wins, however, they will be quite content with his tyrannical policies…until it hits home on a personal basis.

Because if Trump makes deporting 20 million undocumented people in the United States in one fell swoop, then the idea of “show your papers” will become the center of the American experience. There are plenty of conservative white Americans who have at least one non-white person in their extended family and when 1 million armed ICE agents start snatching anyone who isn’t white off the street “just ’cause,” that MIGHT be enough to get even Traditionalists “woke.”

What’s more, even with his own MAGA Deep State in place, Trump couldn’t just instantly, overnight, be an American Tyrant. It would take time for him to ramp up the weaponization of ICE and to quell Blue parts of the country that might be upset with his tyrannical thrashing around.

As such, if Trump wins re-election in 2024, the first few months of 2025 could be very, very rocky. Because the moment Trump is so tyrannical that even Traditionalists have to acknowledge that he’s gone full-tyrant….Trump and everyone else in America has a problem.

Since I can’t predict the future, may be some Black Swan event — like what happened in 2020 and the pandemic — will happen that will allow us to defeat Trump once and for all and all of this talk about civil war / revolution is just going to be seen as silly as all the talk about Y2K back in the day.

I just don’t know. At the moment, it could go either way.

But, like I said, I just don’t understand what, exactly Trump thinks he can do that would allow him to be “dictator,” even for one day. I suppose he could just keep pardoning himself and anyone else who does something illegal. Only time will tell.

Is The Fourth Turning Really ‘Here?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because I’m weak, I bought the book The Fourth Turning Is Here so I could read more about astrology for dudes. There are some severe problems with the whole notion of “The Fourth Turning,” but I will give the authors of the notion credit — it definitely SEEMS as though something along the lines of a “Fourth Turning” will happen in late 2024, early 2025.

It’s all very curious because it’s pretty clear that the whole idea of a Fourth Turning is complete and total bullshit. They just got lucky. The whole premise of The Fourth Turning just makes no sense.

But as I write those words, in the back of my mind, I find myself low-key gaming out some sort of massive clusterfuck starting in late 2024 early 2025.

I just want to live in a liberal democracy. AND, I would just like the opportunity to get into the querying process because the country I live in and love so much goes tits up.

January 6th Counterfactuals

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really struggle to imagine what would have happened had Trump force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol on January 6th like he wanted them to. I don’t think he would have been any more success with Pence certifying the vote, but I do think the January 6th clusterfuck would have been a quantum leap worse.

The more I think about it, the more I think we came very, very close to going to the show with January 6th. If Pence had done as Trump wanted him to do — not certify the vote — there is a pretty good chance that there would have been the revolution then civil war that I have been predicting for much of the last three years.

All the conditions were there for the United States to buckle had Pence not found the guts to simply do a very ceremonial job. The country would have probably had a something akin to a Glorious Blue Revolution the moment Pence balked at certifying the vote. Too many people weren’t paying attention to what was going on with Trump and Certification at the crisis was taking place.

So, if Pence had successfully allow Trump to stage a coup….Jesus Christ would things have gotten hot really quick in the United States.

I’m just grateful that they didn’t. We still have time to save ourselves, not that we will.

January 6th, Three Years Later

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given how dire some of my personal predictions about the next 18 months are, it’s very possible that Mike Pence may have single-handedly given the Republic four years to — somehow — save itself.

And what have we done with that time?

Jack shit.

Rather than using the fours years that Pence afford us by lighting his political career on fire, we’ve just mentally masturbated over the “who shot John” elements of Trumplandia, not really addressing the central issue: Donald Trump.

So here we are, potentially about to either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have a civil war / revolution. I say this because it seems clear that America was the cusp of a civil war / revolution on January 6th, 2021. It is simply amazing that the the insurrectionists we sooooooo dumb and disorganized that they didn’t try the Paris Commune endgame and simply squatted in the Capitol building until there demands were met.

I fear this will not be the case next time, should such an occasion arise.

I almost went to D.C on January 6th to cover certification, but it was too cold and I knew that I would head home well before dark, anyway. I’m so broke it’s just not practical for me to go to D.C. unless the financial conditions in my personal life are juuuuuust right.

So, even if I had gone up there that day, I seriously doubt I would have been around when the crowd attacked the Capitol. It’s possible, but not probable. And I would have only done it because of the heat of the moment and my natural journalistic instinct to go where the story takes me.

Anyway, the thing about Mike Pence is he is such a fucking Trump toady that he simply did not have the courage to go the same route as Liz Chaney. He could have totally revamped his career had he become a virulent #NeverTrumper. But it’s too late now, lulz.

I just don’t know what to expect in 2024 and 2025. It could be that Trump is just a quirk of history and will fade into oblivion, or it could be that the man single handedly destroys not just democracy in the United States, but manages to cause the collapse of the post-WW2 global liberal order.

So, I guess we just wait at this point.

America Has a Third Columnist Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m listening to the All-In podcast and I’m stunned at how much Tech Bro David Sacks is a third columnist. The term “third columnist” was something used back in the bad old days to denote someone who was helping the fascist / communist enemy from within.

I think the term is apropos for fascist Tech Bros like Sacks.

And, I have to note how tone deaf and out-of-touch these otherwise very wealthy, powerful and well-educated men are. They say some of the dumbest shit. They seem to get really worked up about things that only help our enemies within and without.

The thing about it is, I listen to All-In specifically to challenge the center-Left echo chamber media narrative that I too often find myself surrounded by on an intellectual manner. And, I will admit, listening to All-In helps me build up anti-bodies to the fascist, America First agenda talking points.

I have nothing personal against Sack, but some of his views can be very, very grating on the nerves –at least to me.

‘Hard First Contact’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Imagining what would happen if Hard First Contact happened is a good thought exercise because it gives us a chance to game out what might happen if Something Big happened in the conditions of the modern world.

For the purposes of this scenario, I’m going to assume that the aliens that contact us know everything about us, rather than be elusive God-like creatures as seen in the movie 2001.

As such, it seems as though if there was some sort of Hard First Contact that these well-versed aliens would probably want to talk to the UN first. Or maybe not, maybe they would want to talk to the leaders of the G20. But that’s besides the point.

The United States is so fucking divided at the moment that I fear not even something as momentous as Hard First Contact would do squat to unite it. After the shock wore off, the two sides would go back to their individual echo chambers to process the event.

The center-Left (of which I’m a part) would probably see Hard First Contact as an opportunity to unite the globe, solve issues like AI and global climate change and any number of other global issues. They would see Hard First Contact as an opportunity to take the human species collectively to the next level of human evolution.

MEANWHILE, the ding-dong MAGA people would freak the fuck out and want to nuke them or convert the aliens to Christianity. There would be some MAGA people who would see Hard First Contact as a chance to trade and as, such, make a lot of money.

But, in general, MAGA would probably turn its eyes to malignant ding-dong Trump to see what he thought about the issue. And, yet, as I mentioned, I suspect eventually, inevitably, MAGA evangelicals would grab a cross and a Bible and start to demand the opportunity to spread the Good Word to the galaxy.

Of course, there is also a chance that New Age potheads would start to begin to form some sort of dumb cult / religion around the aliens because they’re dumb and high.

Anyway, the point is — the United States is hyper divided and we’re fucked. It’s one of those things where it definitely seems as though 2024 – 2025 could see us going to the show.

Our Coming Moment of Historic Truth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For me, the issue is not if Trump wins or loses in 2024, but what happens after that. It is easy to imagine that either way, Trump could very well cause a civil war, if for different reasons. He might cause a civil war if he loses because he demands a National Divorce to keep himself out of jail.

Meanwhile, he could cause a revolution THEN a civil war if he wins because he will simply be such a ham-handed tyrant –a Red King, if you will — that the country will be brought to its knees.

As such, we have to start to think about what happens if we’re pushed to the breaking point as a nation. Is it possible that for the Traditionalists who are the backbone of any stable democracy, there is no red line when it comes to Trump? Is is possible that they are soooooo anxious about the browning of America and the rise of women with more reproductive and economic agency that they will ride the pony of fascism all the way down?

I would like to THINK that the Traditionalists I know would at least have the Red Line of the personal. I would like to think that would happen. And, yet, who knows. It could be that they’ll simply become Good Germans and keep their heads down and just shrug if weaponized ICE agents come after me because I won’t shut the fuck up about what a piece of shit Trump is.

That moment of truth is really the issue at hand. The fate of the United States will be determined by Traditionalists. I say this because they are the people who are center-Right and provide the stability of the United States. If they actually are riled up by Tyrant Trump’s either demand for a National Divorce in 2024 because he loses or if he goes totally bonkers and tyrannical in 2025 should he win…then, well, freedom in the United States will have a fighting chance.

It could go either way, though. It really could.

Come On, New Jersey, Name Jon Stewart To The Senate & Be Legends — If The Opportunity Arises

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is in something of a political pickle. It is at least *possible* that he will resign or be expelled before the end of the year. I’ve heard of a few names floated to replace him should that happen, but they’re all dull.

Jon Stewart

It seems to me that as the US could very well be careening towards autocracy or civil war / revolution that it sure would be nice if someone like Jon Stewart was Senator Jon Stewart.

But that’s very much my personal delusion. Stewart has shown no interest in any sort of retail political career, yet I will note those times that he has dabbled in politics he’s been VERY EFFECTIVE.

Lulz, what do I know.

Third Time’s The Charm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been writing a lot about how we might get rid of Tyrant Trump should he be re-elected late this year. While I’ve blathered on about very speculative ideas about him being “deposed” by the U.S. Military using the 14th Amendment as some sort of legal cover, in reality given American history, what would probably happen is just a regular old impeachment.

I say this because if Trump went full tyrant in a very ham-handed way, that, by definition, would be an abuse power, and as such, an impeachable offence. There is the issue, of course the chief issue is who would be in charge of the House in 2025.

If it’s Republicans, then holy shit would things have to get very, very, very bad before there would be any talk of an impeachment. Meanwhile, if Agenda 47 was implemented the way we’ve been told and Democrats control the House, Trump could very well be at least impeached within a few months of being sworn in.

But there are a lot complications.

If Trump has gone full tyrant when he’s impeached and things head over to the Senate for trail, the country would literally have to be on the cusp of a Glorious Revolution for him to be convicted — especially if Republicans controlled the Senate.

And some unpreceded things would have to be going on for Trump to be convicted. An actual General Strike that was actually in place and working would be the only way I can imagine that Trump would come anywhere near being convicted in the Senate.

And…maybe…if Republican Senators were leaving the Senate in droves to help organize some sort of “rebel” Trumplandia government as all of this was going on then, yeah, I guess it’s possible Trump might get convicted. But he would probably just fly to some safe rebel Red state and plot his revenge.

But that’s all very speculative and just my usual hysterical doom shit. It could be that either Trump loses and MAGA fades in power, or he wins and so many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will be too busy leaving the country to organize any sort of effective direct action against our new Red King.

Who knows. Not me.

I’m Aghast At The Idea Of A Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not a violent man. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. I hate guns with all my heart. What’s more, I, in general, hate even basic conflict and will do everything in my power to avoid it. Having said all that, I also refuse to be intimidated by people on the Right who seem to be chomping at the bit for a Second American Civil War.

I once had a boss who would scream at the top of his lungs over a phone bill, but when he had to vote about the arrival of Wal-Mart to town (he was on Town Council) he pretty much just said, “A man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.”

And that’s how I feel about the prospect of a civil war. I don’t want one, but don’t try to browbeat me into submission by threatening to start one. It is growing more and more obvious that MAGA is a fascist, bad-faith movement that wants to rule, not govern. They want to turn us into a white Christian ethnostate that will inevitably slouch into excess that will transform American life.

Now, this is the point where I remind you that I can’t predict the future. It could be that all of this is a lot of words over something that isn’t going to happen. We are just going to punt our problems down the road and that will be that. But the MAGA Right loves to use the threat of civil war as a way to spook the center-Left into doing their bidding.

And I say, fuck that. If you are such crybabies — snowflakes — then shake your money maker and attempt to leave the Union should either Trump lose or Trump win and then be deposed / impeached and convicted because he goes full tyrant.

Don’t threaten me with a good time.

I believe that the ideals that Blue states organize themselves under are true and right and are no less honorable than those of the North during the first American Civil War. I don’t want violence, but there is such a thing as a Good War and I refuse to be scared into submission at the threat of a civil war.

Please, God, let’s not have any of this happen. I just want to live in a traditional liberal democracy. That should not be such a big deal.