Category: Tsar-A-Largo

Of Russia, NATO and Estonia: Is America Too Divided To Defend The West?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The recent murder of Darya Dugin has caused a series of curious events in Russia. As I understand it, the Russians are now claiming that she was murdered by a Ukrainian spy who escaped to Estonia. Or something like that. I’m too lazy to look up the specifics to be sure.

Anyway, all of this gives me pause for thought because if the Russians are pointing fingers at both Estonia and Ukraine, things could go down a very dark path pretty quick. And, what really concerns me at the moment is the United States is so existentially divided — and the fucking fascist Republicans love Russia so much — that I don’t know if the United States is prepared to properly address any military action on the part of the Russians should such a thing happen.

I mean, is the United States prepared to go toe-to-toe with Russia if they decide to attack NATO member Estonia? Republicans love autocracy and Russia so much that after the initial shock wore off, the two sides would each go back into their echo chambers to the point that Biden wouldn’t be able to get the country on the same page as to what to do.

Or, put another way, the United States is so divided and so weak right now that we don’t have the political will to fully serve our purpose as the core of the post WW2 liberal order. And, in all honesty, the only thing that gives me any hope about this particular situation is Russia is so weak — especially after its on-going military debacle in Ukraine — that for the time being all this talk of going after Estonia or Ukraine is just that. Talk.

Russia has been proven to be so weak that they couldn’t do anything with Estonia even if they wanted to. Of course, you could say that Putin is no longer a rational actor and, as such, he might do something as bonkers as attack a NATO member over make up charges. Then my fears of a very divided America would be put to the test.

What I mean by all of this is America is so fucked up right now that there would be no assurances that we summon up the will to defend the free world from Russian aggression if it came to that. I say this especially in the context of the possibility that the fucking fascist Republicans might soon take the House again (at least).

If Russia attacked Estonia and the United States couldn’t get its act together enough to defend it properly in the context of Article 5 of NATO then it would principate the total collapse of the barely-hanging on post-WW2 liberal order. We would be thrown into a level of international chaos not seen since the Interwar period.

Let’s just hope the Russians don’t test America to see if it can still do the right thing, even if it wanted to.

There’s Only One Way I Would Support A Biden Pardon Of Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to hear some chatter amongst the more conservative factions of the anti-MAGA alliance that when it comes to Trump absconding with Top Secrets to Mar-a-Lago, Biden has an obligation to pardon Trump “for the sake of the nation.”

First, fuck that.

Second, there’s only one way I would agree to such a thing — Trump would have to, legally and in writing, agree to never run for POTUS again. If Biden was to pardon Trump for any reason, Trump would have to agree to go into political retirement, never to be heard from again.

Since he would never do that, I guess Trump won’t get a pardon.

I don’t think we really appreciate what a political monster Trump is. He’s not going anywhere and no matter how much Ron DeSantis or even Mike Pence wants him to get out of the way, he’s not going to. In fact, he would obviously rather burn the United States to the ground than do the right thing and shut up and retire.

Get ready.

So, Where Would This MAGA ‘Popular Uprising’ (Revolution) Start?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’ve reached the point where we’re seriously thinking about the idea of some sort of “civil war” or even “revolution.” But the question is, of course, where might it break out?

Arizona
I don’t know what the fuck is going on with this state, but they have issues. Their Republican Party is completely bonkers. It’s fascist and hateful and completely detached from reality. And it was in Arizona where there was an armed protest in front of an FBI office. So, it seems possible that if there was some random terroristic attack that it might happen in this state.
Florida
The thing I’ve learned is that while I think Florida is actually three states, when it comes to comes to MAGA, it’s one state. So, yeah, I could see there being a lot of seemingly random, politically motivative mass murder sprees involving AR-15s in this state.
Oregon
The thing we have to remember about this state is it’s actually two states — Portland and everything else. So, I could see some situation where the militia members of Oregon outside of Portland swoop into the city and decide to knock some Antifa heads. It would be very bloody.
Texas
This state is so big and so autocratic in its government that it almost goes without saying that we might see pre-civil war type bloodshed take place there.
Random Place
This would be just random MAGA weirdos who decided to die for the cause.

My Current Hot Take On Why Trump Took Top Secret, Classified Documents To Mar-A-Lago

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The biggest question of the moment when it comes to Trump and all the fucking secrets he stole from the U.S. Government is, of course, “But why?” I struggle to imagine that Trump is smart enough to think of, in real time, any sort of sinister plot when he was leaving office.

So, here’s what I think happened.

Trump is both criminally incompetent and interested in our nuclear secrets for some reason and so, it’s very possible that as he was leaving the White House he just threw a bunch of shit into boxes. He didn’t have any idea what was in any of the boxes, other than he had, at some point, been interested in whatever was in them.

Now, let me be clear — this is both an extremely charitable explanation for what happened and no excuse for him to avoid prosecution. I said he was criminally incompetent. So, he should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. And it doesn’t give us a ready explanation as to why he would both delay, delay, delay giving the documents back AND lie about still having them. But the case could be made that once the documents became an issue, his natural asshole tendencies kicked in and he just refused to cooperate because that’s just who he is.

And, yet, if things really got violent when he was indicted, I would give Trump a deal — we won’t prosecute you if you promise not to ever run for president again for the rest of your life. And as part of the deal, he would have to make some sort of statement demanding that everyone calm down and stop killing each other.

There’s a lot wrong with all of this, of course. We still don’t know the fullest extent of what really happened. We still don’t know the “why.” What I proposed is just a theory. And Trump has so many people who hate what he stands for as much as I do, that it’s possible we’re past the Event Horizon.

No possible deal will be offered because that train has left the station. And Trup wouldn’t even agree to it, even if it was offered to him. He wants to be POTUS again and he’s willing to burn the most powerful nation in the world to the ground to achieve that goal.

I Guess Trump Escapes Justice Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I honestly thought, for a few hours, that Trump stealing Top Secret documents might be The Thing that mortally wounded that malignant dingus on a political basis. But as of right now, it seems as though this is going to go the exact same route that all of Trump’s other scandals have gone.

Something Big and Bad happens
We all freak out that Trump did it
For a brief moment, we think we “Got Him”
MAGA Talking Points Emerge
We’re too divided for any consensus.
Trump escapes
Repeat

So, for the moment, I believe that I need to go back to working on my novels and reading up on the rise of Nazism in 1930s Germany. Trump being investigated for violating the Espionage Act will be thrown onto the list of Bad Things that Trump Has Done and…then promptly forgotten.

Even if Trump is indicted, he will just wrap himself around it so he can play the martyr.

In short, we’re just as doomed as we were before all of this started. Oh well. Wake me up when we decide if we’re going to have a civil war or turn into autocracy. Otherwise, I have six (!) novels to develop and write before I drop dead.

What Did Trump Want With Top Secret Documents?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, the issue of WHY dingus Trump might have have stolen American Top Secret documents and taken them to Mar-a-Lago is something that is very intriguing. Let’s do some scenarios.

Trump Is Stupid
In this thinking, Trump is just so stupid that he grabbed “cool” documents that he could show people post-presidency. There was no real evil intention of doing something bad. He just, in general, snatched some of the highest classified documents that America has, without much thought.

Trump Is Nefarious
In this thinking, Trump is up to something. Maybe not up to the level of being a traitor, but he’s just up to no good.

Trump Is Hiding Something
He just wanted the documents for general later use. There was no specific traitorous intent. But he knows why he took these specific documents.

Trump Is A Traitor
This is the most clear-cut possible explanation. Trump is a traitor. He has an in-the-movies level of understanding about secret documents and thought he could sell them to the Saudis, or Russians or the DPRK. And, yet, I don’t know, I like to think I have a sense of Trump and being an actual traitor seems a bit too complex as a process for an idiot like him.

The Latest ‘Powers That Be:’ Holy Shit, Did This Podcast Age Poorly

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, I’m a notable idiot. I screw up a lot. I get things wrong because I’m too lazy to look them up. In short, I often live up to my reputation as a “failed reporter.” And, yet, when I listened to the above podcast where the interlocutors got REALLY EXCITED about how, essentially, it was a big screw up to raid Mar-a-Lago….I was taken aback. Something felt off.

Some of it was how the implication of the conversation was that Trump was “back in the game” and there was absolutely no downside to any of this. It definitely felt to me as if the two people talking thought it was settled — Trump was pretty much the president again already.

Then the events of today happened and I found myself thinking about the podcast conversation above. While I’m sure — sure — that Trump can figure out some way to elude justice yet again, I suspect Ron DeSantis feels a little bit better about his chances of being the 2024 Republican nominee now that there is evidence that Trump stole America’s most classified secrets — having to do with nuclear technology!

Anyway. I found the podcast above annoying and presumptuous, to say the least.

How Does Trump Wiggle His Way Out Of Having Top Secret Nuclear Documents At Mar-a-Lago?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of this writing, Trump has announced on Truth Social that he is going to “encourage” the release of some of the legal documents associated with the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

Ok, at the moment, things look kind of dark for that fucking malignant dingus. But, to date, Trump has always, always, ALWAYS escaped justice. So, how does he do it this time?

Announce
One idea is, if Trump realizes he’s done a Big Boy Crime and he’s in Serious trouble, that he can always simply tell the Republican Establishment to fuck off and announce for 2024, like, NOW. This would blow out the newscycle for 24 hours and, lulz, by the time we get our bearings again Trump will say no matter what he has absolute immunity because he’s running for POTUS.

Fuck You, Lib
In this scenario, he simply shrugs the whole thing off. He knows his base and, in the end, he has Hitler-levels of fidelity from MAGA and all that happens is the two sides difference of opinion about Trump grows more and more sharp and severe. And, in the end, if he gets indicted, he just uses it to fundraise off of and to cry about how he’s being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants to turn everyone gay. Ugh.

Something Else Happens
Never count Trump out. This is August, after all, and there’s a good chance that something huge could happen that diverts our attention from Trump and his stealing (and selling?) of secrets long enough that he escapes, AGAIN. This is not really a strategy on his part, but it is something that could very well happen at any moment.

Go Transactional
This is probably the darkest of the possible scenarios. Trump, in a panic, freaks out and tells his followers to get violent. The only reason why I say this is even a possibility is — what if this is like the Access Hollywood Tape situation where he didn’t really take it seriously at first…until he did? It could be the same thing. It could be that he’s going to lulz this…and then when he realizes that it’s actually gaining some traction, he freaks out and sicks his “shock troops” on the government. And then, at last, all the people who come to this site looking for information about a Second American Civil War will get their wish.

He Doesn’t Escape
This is the least likely of situations. It’s so unlikely, that I don’t even know what it would look like. Though, I suppose, it might look a lot like what never happened while he was in office — The Pence Pivot. In this case, it would be the DeSantis Pivot or something. After a brief freak out — in silence — on the part of the Republicans, they would pivot to Ron DeSantis as the standard bearer and they would act like Trump is a lulz from the distance past.

Frankenstein’s Monster
In this scenario, the absolute worst happens — at least for Republicans. He both becomes extremely radoactive (no pun intended) and, yet, refuses to go away. In fact, the fact that he’s indicted will only make him more angry and, in his own way, stronger. The base will forgive him for being a fucking traitor and if you throw in how we’re an anocracy not a democracy — he fucks with things to the point that he wins in 2024. His veep will be Gen. Mike Flynn and we all sit around waiting for the Russians to Red Dawn us.

‘But Why?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The mystery of the moment is why in the world would Trump have all this Top Secret information — including, apparently, nuclear secrets? What the what? Even if you are the most charitable and say it’s all an “accident” that still leaves a lot of questions.

You mean to tell me, Trump just randomly got some of the most top secret document that America possesses because it would be “cool?” Come to think of it, Trump is a big enough idiot, so I suppose it’s at least possible that was his logic.

But while Trump is very stupid, we also know he’s very craven.

So, it’s at least possible that he has a movie-level understanding of secrets and thought he might be able to make a quick buck off of them by selling them. Even though Official Serious Person Tom Nichols has made it clear that’s not how Top Secrets work. But that’s how TRUMP might have thought they work.

Anyway, the point is, the “why” is a ticking time bomb for the entire country. What happens if we have definitive, cold, hard evidence that the reason why Jared got $2 billion from the Saudis was access to those secrets? Then you have something of a Singularity whereby on one side you have the absolute need to go after Trump criminally running up against the absolute need to protect the Dear Leader on the part of MAGA.

It goes without saying that that is a very unstable situation.

The consensus that is developing around Trump and these secrets is so bad that I half think we should try to impeach him AGAIN so he can never run for office again. But, I think, on a political level things may get dark for Trump for the next few days, but ultimately this will simply be one of the, say, top three Bad Things that Trump has done.

On a political basis, he’ll bounce back with the MAGA base for various reasons, he’ll announce for 2024 and away we go.

Prove me wrong.

Not Since Trump’s ‘Tender Care Facilities’ On The Border Have I Felt This Rattled By That Dingus

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got so angry about Trump’s administration that I started a novel project which is now up to six novels. And one of the things that made me the angriest was the “tender care facilities” that happened with little kids because of Trump’s shenanigans on the border.

I think of that now that we know it’s possible that Trump may have stolen nuclear secrets, of all things, and hidden them at Mar-a-Lago. This really makes me angry. It enrages me. It enrages me for a number of reasons, chief amongst them being that there’s a very good chance that Trump, yet again, will get away with it.

He will do something, anything to muddy the waters so the usual shuck and jive will happen where we all get really angry then gradually lose interest and Trump escapes. And the chief thing I think Trump could do to escape would be to announce his 2024 bid.

That is typically how Trump operates.

Whenever he’s cornered and we all think we have him, he does something even more stupid and dramatic and horrible and corrupt and no consensus can develop about what to do with him. I suppose Trump could also go transactional and get his mob of angry idiots to try to overthrow the government in an effort to protect himself. He hasn’t tried that lately.

And, so, seeing’s believing.