Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Pondering The Potential Impact of Google’s Coming Gemini AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the next 18 months may be pretty fucking historic on both a technological and political basis. On the tech side, Google is set to release a new AI called Gemini. Given how impressive today’s first generation AI is, I’m a bit unnerved by what Gemini may bring.

It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the year when AI reaches the “just good enough” stage. This means we’ll be one severe recession away from the entire knowledge economy being upended and transformed. It could be that the 2024 presidential cycle will be the first time we start to take the notion of Universal Basic Income seriously.

I’m coming to believe that UBI is inevitable — a lot sooner than anyone might think. But I also think it will come at a price — probably all taxes will be replaced by a 30% VAT. Also, I think we’ll pay for a UBI by taxing the economic output of non-human actors.

If Gemini is anywhere near as powerful as is suggested, then we are probably in for some severe economic and social upheaval just as we careen towards the “Fourth Turning” of late 2024, early 2025.

I continue to believe that it’s at least possible that neo-Ludditism is the next logical evolution of MAGA. It makes a lot of sense if even blue collar jobs are not spared by AI. I suspect that soon enough something akin to androids will begin to take all the service jobs that aren’t knowledge economy jobs being taken by LLMs.

Regardless, things are very much up the air.

Worried About A Blind Item

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only think about this again because the Speaker of the House spot is vacant for the time being. But there was a blind item on Tik-Tok some time ago that suggested there might be a sex tape of VP Harris getting it on with talk show host Montel.

That is all a bunch of smoke and mirrors at the moment, but I think it was Lenin who said a week sometimes has a the news of a decade crammed all into it all at once at times. So, imagine Biden shuffles off this mortal coil, Harris becomes POTUS and a sex tape leaks out and she has to resign.

Who would become POTUS at this point? Do we know? I guess it would be the president pro temp of the Senate, but I sure don’t like not knowing 100%.

Anyway, I’m sure I’m overthinking things and everything is going to work out just fine.

Right….Right????

Taking The Prospect Of ‘Speaker Trump’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that is both funny and dumb and dangerous all at the same time is the idea that Trump might become Speaker of the House now that Kevin McCarthy has been given the boot.

If Trump was a true “great man,” then, yes, it would make total sense. But Trump is such an idiot that he just doesn’t have the abstract thought abilities necessary to do such a thing. I MIGHT be able to see Trump find a handpicked proxy that he might use to do his bidding, but at the moment, I really struggle to imagine Trump himself being willing to be Speaker.

The only — ONLY — reason why I could maybe see him doing it is he would really get off on leading the impeachment of Biden. Otherwise, the man is so dumb and lazy that he just would not be willing to do any of the practical work necessary to be a Speaker of the House.

And, yet, Trump lacks any abstract thought abilities to the point that I really struggle to imagine him having the gumption to pick a proxy person to run the House for him. Trump is very, very, very dumb and lazy and, lulz, you would have to spell it out to him like he was a complete moron — which he is — to get him to find a proxy for him.

So, I think, for the time being, we’re pretty safe. I can’t predict the future, but I seriously doubt Trump will be the next Speaker of the House.

MAGA As American Nazism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The most recent Pod Save America is really great. But I do find it interesting that the PSA guys seem to have a blind spot when it comes to what’s going on with American politics. They keep wondering how it is that we find ourselves in this situation and how we can deal with Trump.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

The problem is not only is America now an anocracy rather than democracy, there is a sizable portion of the population who hates democracy and crave an autocratic white Christian ethnostate of blood and soil. There comes a point when you have to accept how existential the 2024 election is going to be for the fate of the United States.

If every election a democracy has is existential, then you’re really not a democracy anymore. We have to accept that a lot of white Christian conservative (males) feel disenfranchised to the point that they would rather we throw up our hands and give up on our founding principles.

I just don’t have any hope anymore. We have to prepare for some sort of monumental events to happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. I have no idea what might happen, but things aren’t looking great at the moment. In fact, they look rather dire.

There are no easy answers or solutions. I do believe that MAGA will one day be viewed as just as bad as the Nazis, with all the foreboding and evil that that assumes about what they will do the next time they have power.

MAGA Is Going Septic — We Have To Plan Accordingly

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 will be It. Something Big is going to happen one way or another. Either we slip into MAGA-themed autocracy or have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) I just don’t see us punting our problems down the road again.

MAGA wants to establish an autocratic white Christian ethnostate of blood and soil. And, remember, that is the orthodoxy of the Republican Party, not just Trump. So the next time we have a Republican president, that’s what we’re going to transform into — unless we have some sort of “Resistance Revolution” that forces some significant political reforms.

I can’t predict that future, so I suppose it’s possible that we might punt things down the road again. And I suppose it’s possible that rather than growing more hateful and angry if that happens — or starting a civil war — that MAGA might gradually lose political power.

But I have my doubts.

The key issue is how much the insane rhetoric on the part of MAGA is just that — a bunch of talk. Are they really willing to destroy the United States to keep Trump out of prison? That is kind of the issue of the moment — or at least of late 2024, early 2025.

Again — I can’t predict the future. No fate but what we make and all that. But I do know that 2024 will be the most significant event in domestic political history since that of 1860.

What’s Wrong With Conservative White America?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There used to be a point in time, not so long ago, when generally everyone in America — regardless of political affiliation — was on the same page about some pretty basic things. First and foremost, we all not only believed in democracy, we believed the United States was a democracy.

And, yet, here we are.

A solid 38% of the Republican electorate no longer believes in democracy and definitely no longer believes the United States is a democracy. It really makes who wonder how the fuck this happened. Ezra Klein has a great book about this very thing — “Why We’re Polarized’ — that explains how we got here, but gives the audience zero ways to solve the problem.

Basically, one big problem is as white people slowly become a minority, our power structures simply aren’t able to accommodate the change in race relations. So, in a sense, there is a really good chance that something analogous to the bad old days in South Africa may happen in the United States where a white minority controls the economy and the politics of the country.

So, in short, the case could be made that MAGA is pretty much just white identity politics. Now that white (conservative) people realize they aren’t going to be able to get their way by sheer force of numbers, they are freaking out on a number of different fronts from abortion to gun control. And it’s only going to get worse.

As I keep saying, either we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we collapse into civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.)

For the time being, I neither see any sort of solution nor know which direction we’re going to take. I keep hoping I’m wrong and we’re going to go a “third way” like we did in 2020. But I just don’t know. Everything is so uncertain and unstable in the United States at the moment that I just can’t game out what’s going to happen.

I have a lot of fears about the absolute worst happening, and, yet, it could be that, like in 2020, those fears are just that — “hysterical doom shit.” It could be that, lulz, neither Trump wins nor is he able to provoke a National Divorce if he loses.

Who knows.

What Am I Going To Do If Tyrant Trump Wins Re-Election?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that we’ve reached just about a year before the most significant election in American history since 1860, I find myself wondering what the fuck I’m going to do if Trump is re-elected. I already know what I’m going to do if there’s any sort of civil war or revolution — head north.

But what do I do if we just slide into a MAGA-themed autocracy?

A lot will depend on my surroundings. I live in an extremely MAGA-conservative part of Virginia. It could be that I won’t have any choice but to head for, say, Richmond, where I have some relatives. It could be that the choice will be made for me — things will just grow so hot for me because too many people know my Blue politics.

There is the longer-term issue of what happens if I do move to Richmond and ICE gets weaponized. I’ve been a loudmouth crank in a liberal democracy my entire life and I don’t quite know what I’m going to do when I can’t get drunk and shoot off at the mouth anymore.

It could very well be that my very conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — are going to be put between a rock and a hard place. They’re going to demand I shut up and I’m just not going to do it. I would rather, in fact, they be the ones to turn me in than have to wait for me to get drunk and say Tyrant Trump can suck my dick.

I do think that the existing ICE infrastructure will inevitably be weaponized in Trump’s second term. And I think we’re going to see a MAGA-dominated Constitutional Convention. The United States will leave NATO. We will pull our troops out of South Korea. And it’s possible there could be a total re-alignment of the global order, with the United States aligning with other autocratic nations like Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

But as for my personal fate, I’m at a loss. I just don’t have the funds to flee the country like a least 1 million smug Twitter liberals will do. No matter what, I’d rather die on my feet a free man than live a long life on my knees as a slave.

I’m Embarrassed To Be Represented By Rep. Bob Good In The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about central Virginia is it’s a difficult area to represent as Red and Blue continue to recede away from each other at an alarming rate. There is one major city — Charlottesville — but otherwise the area is extremely, extremely MAGA and rather sparsely populated.

As such, I’m stuck with Rep. Bob Good who is sends out fliers lying about how “bipartisan” he is when all he is a MAGA piece of shit. I feel like calling up his local office and giving a staffer a piece of my mind. Something about that flyer really irritates me.

I had a long talk one hot summer day with one of his young staffers doing community outreach and it did not go well. The young man was a MAGA true believer. We kept things civil, but I still managed to give him a piece of my mind about how shitty Good’s MAGA views are.

Anyway, my community deserves better than Good, and, yet, here we are. Good is a MAGA absolutist and because of gerrymandering he probably will continue to represent me until either the sun goes dark or Virginia collapses into anarchy as part of a civil war or revolution.

Glenn Youngkin May Never Be POTUS, But He Could Cause Virginia to Implode If There’s a Secession Crisis Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Virginia is, it’s two states, one Red, one Blue fused together that hate each other with a white hot passion. As such, if ever there was some sort of “National Divorce,” Virginia would be one of the first states to implode into coups, counter coups and general political violence an anarchy.

And now we learn that Virginia’s vacuum, MAGA Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is seeing a surge of interest in him running for against malignant ding-dong Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination. Youngkin has said that he won’t make a decision about running until after the 2023 Virginia state elections.

It seems clear that the metric he wants — that of the entirety of Virginia’s government being MAGA controlled — will be met and, as such, he’s going to be put on the spot as to if he’s going to run against Trump. What’s comical about this particular situation is it’s clear Republicans want uncut MAGA Trumpism, not some more palatable knockoff version that might somehow allow Republican donators sleep better at night.

Unless Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, he is GOING to be the 2024 Republican nominee and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. We’re careening towards a very dark situation in late 2024, early 2025 and it’s happening in broad daylight. Republicans are telegraphing their goals for a Trump second term and the only question for me at this point is if Trump loses if we’re going to have a civil war or if Trump wins if we’re going to have some sort of Blue “revolution.”

And I think Youngkin is going to find himself at the center of a severe political crisis if we have either a civil war or a revolution. If we have a “National Divorce” because Trump has lost, then he will be under a lot of pressure to declare Virginia a Red State and thus secede from the Union. If there’s some sort of concerted — and very unlikely — attempt to topple Tyrant Trump at some point in this second term, Virginia’s proximity to D.C. would also cause Youngkin to have to make some tough choices.

Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future, so it’s possible that Youngkin could be the Great White Hope that Republican oligarchs have been looking for and he might actually give Trump a run for the nomination. I have really, really doubt that, however.

America Is Now In The Danger Zone

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear that the bolts are popping off America at an alarming rate and the key issue is how bad things are going to get and if there will be significant political violence starting no later than late 2024, early 205. America is giving off serious Weimar Republic vibes — or late 1850s vibes, take your pick — and all I know is that this level of instability can’t keep going on forever.

At some point, things will finally go septic and we either peacefully turn into an autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) At the moment, I think we’re going to simply shrug and become a MAGA-themed theocratic ethnostate without much fight.

But the key thing is — people need to get woke to the fact that we live in dangerous, unpreceded times. We’re collectively careening towards a dark, unstable endgame, whatever that endgame may be. America is tearing itself apart and the positions of the two sides continue to harden and grow more and more extreme.

Either we slide into autocracy and become “all Red” or we collapse into chaos, civil or revolution. And you can’t just tell me, we can solve all our problems if we defeat MAGA at the polls — MAGA has made it clear that if they can’t win, they’ll cheat and if that doesn’t work, we are probably going to face some sort of secession crisis.

Probably starting with Texas.

And if autocratic, white dominated state governments in the South begin to leave the Union that is the set up for nothing short of a fucking race war. I just can’t see African Americans allowing the former Confederate states leave the Union without putting up some sort of fight.

At a minimum, Blue cities in Red States will become the focal point of significant violence, up to and including “American Killing Fields.” States like Texas and Virginia may simply implode into severe intra-state violence because of the difference between the political sentiment of the population and the government that controls them.

I would advise you to get a passport. Remember, state governments will be at the center of whatever civil war or revolution that might occur starting in late 2024, early 2025 and, as such, you probably also need to start thinking about what you’re going to do if your personal politics don’t fit that of your state. If the worst happens — and I hope it doesn’t — there could be millions of domestic political refugees bouncing around the United States as we have our final death rattle.

But, I can’t predict the future. Maybe we’ll find a “third way” again and punt our severe political problems down the road another four years.