Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Casually Mulling WW3

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my favorite novels growing up was Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. The biggest problem I had with it — even as a young man — was the scenario totally glossed over what the domestic reaction to WW3 would be. With that in mind, let’s imagine that the wars going on at the moment fused together and became WW3.

The nation that connects Ukraine and Israel is Russia. If what’s going on between Israel and Hamas escalates, it would be Russia that could potentially link the two wars.

It would go something like this. Hezbollah strikes Israel from the north at the direction of Iran. Things grow so bad that Israel feels an existential threat and the nuke the capital of Hezbollah’s patron, Iran. Once Teheran is rubble, the 75-year old taboo against using nukes would end and Russia might feel emboldened to nuke Ukraine.

Once this happens, it is easy to imagine China going after Taiwan and the DPRK going after the ROK. Throw in India and Pakistan nuking each other while central Africa goes at it and you have WW3.

It makes you wonder if WW3 would be enough to unite the extremely divided United States. I have my doubts. The problems with the United States at the moment are macro and existential. I don’t even think a world war could unite America at this point.

We are very, very fucked.

It’s really just a matter of what bad thing happens.

Anyway, I don’t know if the American press would be able to handle an actual WW3. It would be a very interesting situation, however. Once the initial freak out faded, I think America would probably go back to the same old Blue-Vs-Red political war that we’ve been experiencing for some time now.

One issue would be if the Draft came back or not. That would be something that would catch the attention of the average person to the point that WW3 wouldn’t just be “over there.”

It’s Comical How Few People Take Me Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For various reasons large and small, in general, no one listens to me and no one takes me seriously. This has been a problem my entire life. But I have proven time and again that I actually do have some worth and I have surprised people by ability.

As such, it will be quite interesting what the reaction will be when I produce a third draft of this mystery-thriller that is actually…really good? There are some obvious existential problems with the novel, but I do believe that soon enough I will be within shouting distance of a novel that a literary agent might take seriously.

Or not. Who knows. I can’t help who I am. I am well aware that I can come across as a drunk crank at times. Ok, I get it. But I also know I’m a hard worker — especially if it’s something I believe in — and I’m also a good enough writer and storyteller that I have a career as a novelist ahead of me if things work out.

But I also know I’m notorious for being delusional. So, lulz. Who knows. I continue to be weary of the the fucking “Fourth Turning” and how everything could collapse starting in late 2024, early 2025.

I know I worry about this possibility way too much. But I continue to be alarmed at where the United States is going these days and it definitely seems as though we may not making it through the 2024 presidential cycle in one piece. But I can’t predict the future, so, maybe, we’ll just punt our problems down the road another four years and I will be able to query my first novel in peace.

Why The Good Money Is On Trump Winning Re-Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a very conservative relative — whom I love dearly — who is a part of the non-MAGA conservative base of the Republican Party. He hates Trump, even though he voted for him the second time. The last time I talked to him, he made it clear that he hates the “liberal agenda” so much that he will vote for Trump AGAIN if he wins the nomination in 2024.

Another interesting element to our discussion is how angry he still is over what happened with COVID. I keep telling him that the average person just doesn’t care anymore, but that doesn’t stop him from ranting about how the government lied and did a lot of unnecessary damage. He is very curious in the candidacy of RFK, Jr. because of this.

Just from my conversation with him, it seems clear that Trump is going to win in 2024. At least it seems so at the moment. The differences between Red and Blue have grown so extreme that people like my relative — who in the past were strong believers in traditional American democracy — now are willing to sell their birthright to a malignant fascist ding-dong like Trump just so they can “own the libs.”

As such, I think we need to start to prepare for a rather dystopian future starting in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that Trump is so astonishingly tyrannical starting in 2025 that the U.S. Military does the unimaginable — it steps in and deposes Trump.

Or maybe not. I just can’t predict the future. But it definitely SEEMS like we’re heading towards some rather major historic event within the next 18 months.

Is The United States A Modern Austro-Hungarian Empire….Or The Ancien Regime?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is an unsettled place at the moment. We all sense that we’re careening towards a dark future, a momentous event of some sort that would start within the next 18 months.

But there are a lot of theories about what we should compare modern American to. Some people point to the collapse of the multi-ethnic Austro-Hungarian Empire at the end of WW1, while people like me see a closer analogy to the state of affairs with the French Ancien Regime in the days leading up to the French Revolution.

I just don’t see a comparison to the Austro-Hungarian Empire being adequate to explain what’s going on in the United States at the moment. The Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed because it was a bunch of small nations fused together. The United States, meanwhile, has a very clear sense of national unified national identity that is being frayed by a combination of a growing sense of white nationalism and more economic agency for women.

I do think that we face not one, but three main possible futures starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The first, most obvious, option is we peacefully slide into some sort of MAGA-themed autocracy. About 1 million smug, wealthy liberals leave the country and there is a total re-alignment of the post WW2 liberal global order as the United States leaves NATO and South Korea and forms an alliance with Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

The second, less likely option is Biden wins and Trump, in an effort to avoid going to prison, freaks the fuck out and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce. The country implodes into civil war. WW3 happens in conjunction with this and about 1 billion people die.

The third, far less likely option is a French Revolution type situation when Trump’s tyrannical, erratic behavior grows so unbearable to enough people that there is some sort of collective uprising against MAGA. The country breaks apart, but only in conjunction with the broader effort on the part of Blues to re-unite the country under a Third Republic. All of this might happen in the context of the U.S. Military stepping in at some point, as well.

But, in general, the issue is a number of macro trends are all heading to a conclusion around the same point in the future. What’s more it’s possible that we may be heading towards something akin to a “Petite Singularity” that would involve AI eliminating an unpreceded number of jobs a very short amount of time.

All of this is, of course, very speculative. Anything can happen in the future. I totally misjudged what happend with Trump in 2020. I can’t predict the future, but that doesn’t stop me from being….alarmed.

Idle Rambling About ‘The Fourth Turning’

Mulling An American Military Junta Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is definitely hysterical doom shit on my part to suggest that the United States might find itself with a military junta starting in late 2024, early 2025. It would be the first time in our history when such a thing had happen. It goes against everything the U.S. Military believes in even do such a thing in the first place.

As such, it definitely seems as though we’re going to peacefully side into a MAGA-themed autocratic state. Not a shot fired. We just shrug and give up. About 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country, leaving Poors like me to fend for themselves.

If such an unlikely thing DID happen, I could see Gen. James “MadDog” Mattis being acting POTUS while we had a Constitutional Convention to push through some MUCH needed structural reforms to our political system.

I think that is specifically what would happen. The crisis of late 2024, early 2025 grows so dire that the there’s a coup, a military junta is established that runs the country for the specific amount of time necessary to hold a Constitutional Convention.

I have to say when that’s your best case scenario for your country, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. We can only hope that this is just yet more hysterical doom shit on my part.

‘Ping’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a child of the Cold War, so everything that’s going on in the Middle East right now reminds me of what was going on in the background of The Day After before everything went kabluey.

I’m well aware that I’m prone to “hysterical doom shit,” as this may just be more of the same. But it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine things escalating if Israel struck targets inside of Iran for their involvement in what has been going on.

And Israel is one of a few nuclear powers so, yeah. The whole thing is rather unnerving. I only even suggest any of this because this IS the Middle East we’re talking about and the whole region as been unstable for a long, long time.

What’s more, we have the whole fucking “Fourth Turning” to worry about in the United States at some point between now and early 2025. I still think the whole thing is astrology for dudes, but the point the theory makes is still relevant — it definitely seems as though 2025 Is It.

We’ve collectively, on a global scale, enjoyed peace for too long and a lot of idiots are itching to burn the whole post WW2 global order to the ground. I don’t know what to tell you, folks.

Get ready.

Is It World War 3 Yet?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I seriously doubt this particular “hysterical doom shit” on my part will amount to anything, I am a little bit concerned that if there are two major long-term regional wars going on at the same time that the two events will be linked under the rubric “World War 3.”

What’s more, if the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are joined by a massive clusterfuck in central Africa then, yeah, the nattering nabobs of negativism may start to throw around the term “World War 3” simply because it would be “cool” and an easy way to explain a very complex situation.

Of course, I have long believed that if the “Fourth Turning” really does happen starting in late 2024, early 2025 that we are going to be royally fucked and World War 3 really will break out. That could happen either because the United States pulls out of NATO and South Korea as it becomes an America First MAGA autocratic state or because the USA has descended into civil war or revolution because of “vibes.”

But that’s very speculative hysterical doom shit. It’s possible that somehow we’ll just punt all our problems down the road and nothing will come of any of this.

Should An ‘American’ By Any Other Name Smell As Sweet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet more proof that “everything is dumb,” I got into something of a prolonged argument on the Twitter clone Pebble with some non-USAians about what to call…,well, people like me.

As is so often the case, it all started when I made a casual remark about something and referred to “Americans” in a way that clearly linked the idea of people from the USA with the word. This made a Spanish-speaking non-American American very upset and I spent a few hours arguing over this fucking dumb issue.

For me, the issue is — fucking Americans, or USAians, save the globe during two world wars and a Cold War, we should be given a pass when it comes to what we call ourselves. But NOOOOOO. It definitely seems as though there are some non-Americans who fucking hate the United States so much that they get really upset when USAians call themselves “American.”

I have to say that jumping down my throat about something so stupid — especially when the USA is careening towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or a civil war / revolution. And, yet, here we are.

I was countered by well-meaning people who wanted us all to hold hands and sing fucking Kumbaya until Americans collectively agreed to take the feelings of everyone outside of the United States into consideration when we referred to ourselves.

Fuck that. It’s never going to happen and anyone who think it will is a fucking moron. It’s a testament to how well-meaning Leftists blather on about something that doesn’t mean shit in real terms just because in some dream world they think they can change things.

What Americans call themselves just isn’t that big a deal, all things considered. Especially given how close the United States is to either MAGA Nazi fascist autocracy or civil war / revolution. UGH. I fucking hate Leftists, sometimes.

Eyes Wide Shut: America Is Careening Towards ‘The Fourth Turning’ & No One Gives A Shit

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is so curious that America’s lurch towards either MAGA-themed autocracy or civil war / revolution is happening in broad fucking daylight and no one seems very concerned. It’s all rather unsettling.

All I can compared it to is how apparently the Western Roman Empire just kind of gave up in its later years. An air of defeatism took over the collective and at one point it just become a matter of time before some barbarian put the Western Romans out of their misery.

I guess what I’m trying to say is there are some macro historical forces at work when it comes to the United States’ future. I can’t predict the future, so I have no idea what the fuck is going to happen. But, in general, I would posit that Something Big is going to happen in the world’s only hyperpower in late 2024, early 2025.

What that “Something Big” event might be….I just don’t know.

But, in general, all the conditions are there for a political event at least equal to WW2, if not the French Revolution. Something — whatever it is — that fundamentally changes not just American culture, but that of the entire world. It’s going to be scary and disruptive and there won’t be any ready endgame while it’s happening.

Good luck.