Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Jesus Christ, Do I Hate Orthodoxy Of Any Kind

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the forces tearing America apart at the moment is how convoluted and easily conflated all of it can be. Unlikely what was going on in the late 1850s, the centrifugal forces tearing America apart today are far more muddled.

Now, let me be clear — as long as everyone is of age and it’s consensual, I don’t care what you do with your body. What bothers me about the Trans movement is not that people are Trans, but, rather the secondary issues associated with the Leftist media narrative on the subject.

Either you embrace the most extreme possible take on the Trans movement, or you risk having your life destroyed by the “woke cancel culture mob.” I try to be as open minded and empathetic as possible on this issue, but even I find the conspicuous embrace of Trans “influencers” by beer companies….odd? Why poke the bear of all those Traditionalist beer drinkers if you don’t have to? What purpose does it serve to add another rhetorical bow in the quiver of bonkers MAGA people who want Trantionalists to embrace their fascism?

As an aside, some of the Trans “influencers” have an eerie nature to them that seems like the gender equivalent of the Uncanny Valley. Something about their appearance just seems a bit…off. This is just a few of them. I’ve seen some Trans women who are so natural looking that I wouldn’t know they weren’t born women unless you specifically told me.

Anyway. Whatever. Again, the issue isn’t Trans people, it’s the meta elements of the orthodoxy associated with the movement. I just want to live in a functioning liberal democracy and if you push conservative Traditionalists into the arms of MAGA fascists, my God have mercy on all our souls.

Republicans Embracing ‘Fetal Personhood’ May Be The Thing That Finally Sinks America’s Ship Of State

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my fears come true and “fetal personhood” becomes mainstream Republican orthodoxy by the time the 2024 election rolls around, holy shit does it seem like my “hysterical doom shit” is pretty prescient. Abortion and gun control are two issues very clearly mark if someone — or their state — is Red or Blue. And if Republicans embrace the idea that a zygote should be afforded all the Constitutional protections of an adult person…YIKES.

This is a prime example of why I fucking hate radicalism. If you’re so radical in your dreams of banning abortion that you pretty much make it inevitable that women will go to prison for having a miscarriage then you’re a piece of shit. But here we are — it could be that 2024 will be a battle royale between Two Tribes where no matter who wins the election, we face a secession crisis.

Either Reds begin to leave the Union because Blues won or Blues leave the Union because Reds won. There will be no middle ground and we will all be faced with the biggest historical event since the French Revolution. For all the people trying to “save” babies by having an absolute ban on abortion, I’d like to know what they’re going to do when a Second American Civil War combined with WW3 causes the death of about 1 billion people because of various horrible things happening in quick succession.

And, yet, it could very well be that Blues don’t have it in them to leave the Union. It could be that all those smug Twitter liberals with podcasts will decamp to the south of France and that will be that. There will be a national contraception ban, all gun control will be overturned and the existing ICE camp system will be weaponized to the point that yours truly finds himself cooling his heels in one of them for getting drunk and saying the autocrat can suck his dick.

The issue is — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I am growing more and more alarmed that the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that I’ve been ranting about for some time really is going to happen.

I don’t that to happen over and above the obvious reasons because I have a novel I’m working on and I’d like to actually have a fair shot of becoming a successful, published author before I drop dead.

Who knows? Anything can happen in the next 18 months or so.

Massive Resistance Is Not Cool, Regardless of Who Is Doing It or Why

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Back in the bad old days, there came a point during the Civil Rights movement when a number of Southern states ganged up and simply refused to abide by Brown Vs. Board of Education. In some parts of Virginia, in fact, counties shut down their public schools entirely rather than integrate them.

Now, much to my chagrin, a growing chorus of Blues are calling for something similar when it comes to the recent ruling by a MAGA judge banning one of the two major abortion pills.

I’m not cool with such talk.

Massive Resistance was not cool when racist Southerners did it and it’s not cool when otherwise well-meaning Blues do it now. America is already tearing itself apart to an unprecedented degree, no need to aggravate the situation by ignoring a decision by a Federal judge you don’t agree with.

That way lies madness.

Or, if nothing else, a National Divorce which would, by definition, spark a Second American Civil War.

But all this talk of ignoring the Federal judiciary definitely highlights the dangers of the 2024 election. We’re careening towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war and it definitely seems as though the only issue is if its Reds or Blues who ultimately decide to leave the Union (depending on who wins the election.)

And, yet, it could be that ultimately Blues just shrug and we become an autocracy, with about 1 million smug liberals fleeing the country in due course.

The Bolts Continue To Pop Off Of The Union At An Alarming Rate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. The news that a MAGA Federal judge has banned the use of one of the two abortion pills is extremely alarming on a macro historical basis. I say this because at its heart, abortion is an economic issue and it’s could be the head of the spear of a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025.

It’s the economic nature of abortion that makes it different than all the other corrosive centrifugal forces tearing America apart which are pretty much just “vibes.” Abortion deals with the economic and bodily agency of 51% of the population and how it’s dealt with is a very clear delineation between a Red and Blue State.

But it’s unlikely that abortion, unto itself, would spark a National Divorce and, as such a Second American Civil War. And, yet, MAGA being so absolute on the issue of banning abortion on the national level, ultimately with no exceptions, is yet another stressor on the politics of America.

At the moment, the issues of abortion, gun control and to a lesser extent the Trans movement are causing a very clear delineation between Red and Blue. This is happening to the point where superficially, you could even lull yourself into a false sense of security when it came to the idea that you could pull of a National Divorce peacefully.

This idea collapses, however, when you realize that for every California, you have three or four states with a far more muddled political situation. The moment you have a secession crisis, the issue of how Texas is shifting Blue long term suddenly becomes VERY VERY important. Meanwhile, states like Virginia which are two states, one Red, one Blue fused together that hate each other also become a real problem.

It would be a state like Virginia that would have the most to lose in a National Divorce (civil war) because it would collapse into rival camps trying to decide on the field of battle what could not be decided politically: is it a Blue or Red State? Probably what would happen is after a really nasty intra-state civil war, Virginia would be split into two, with the rural parts of the state in Red America and the metropolitan areas in Blue America.

And, wait, it gets worse!

So, now we have two dueling judicial rulings on abortion. It goes to SCOTUS and ta-da MAGA wins.

I still am not prepared to believe we’re going to have a Second American Civil War because of the passions of the 2024 election — it’s just too likely that we’re going to shamble into autocracy. And, yet, with ding-dong Trump floating around, lurking in the historical shadows….anything is possible.

A Modest Proposal: Doug Jones For POTUS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As the United States continues to careen towards a dark and potentially catastrophic 2024 election cycle, there is definitely one obvious way to punt our problems down the road for four more years: elect a conservative Democrat like Doug Jones (or Joe Manchin).

I say this because only a conservative Democrat would have the political credibility with both sides to the point that they could provide the leadership, the glue to hold the country together for one more presidential cycle. And, yet, this particular dream is also really impractical.

My dream of a Doug Jones or Joe Manchin becoming the Democratic nominee is a political phantasm because it would be a real struggle to wrangle the AOC wing of the Democratic Party into such a thing. Though, I think a Jones (or Manchin) / AOC ticket in 2024 would be exactly the type of thing that would keep America from collapsing.

But there is a big problem — I know people who literally believe the Democratic Party is Satanic and no amount of reminding them that it IS possible for someone to be conservative and a Democrat would change their mind that, by definition, a Democratic president wants us all to be gay and arrest anyone who gets a Transgender person’s pronouns wrong.

I’m not kidding. I wish I was, but I’m not.

So, in a sense, we’re just too far gone. The die is cast — some sort of major crisis is going to happen around late 2024, early 2025. We just don’t know if it’s of the civil war or MAGA-themed autocracy variety at the moment.

‘1859:’ The Ballad of The #TennesseeThree

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re all so busy assuming that Reds are going to somehow start a civil war that we continue not to really think about the possibility that it will be Blues who ultimately prompt one. I certainly don’t want Blues to be the ones history blames for a 2024 – 2025 secession crisis, but it’s definitely a prospect we need to take seriously.

I have written about this scenario a great deal for no other reason than I’m a native contrarian and also it just doesn’t make any sense for Reds to demand a National Divorce if they’re politically ascendant. They just have no reason to destroy the country with a National Divorce because they’re on the cusp of transitioning us into an autocracy without firing a shot.

And, ultimately, on paper at least, it just doesn’t seem in collective character of Blues to leave the Union — all the smug liberals who would otherwise lead such a center-Left National Divorce will just flee the country en masse and that will be that. Lulz?

So, I suppose all my “hysterical doom shit” pontificated on over the last few years on this blog will ultimately look rather foolish. Even a radical revenge-driven Trump second term won’t be enough to cause California, then New York then various other Blue states to leave the Union. I really, really don’t want such a thing to happen, but things continue to grow so alarming that I just can’t help myself.

A prime example of my fears about Blue leaving the Union rather than Reds is what’s going on with the expulsion of two Blues from the Tennessee legislature. People in my center-Left echo chamber are freaking the fuck out. To the point that I’m growing alarmed that we may look back upon this as something of a tipping point.

Or, put another way, Blues are ripe to do the very thing we’re so busy thinking Reds will want to do — prompt a civil war by causing a secession crisis.

Maybe not. This could just a moment in time that passes. And yet it could also be that Blues are getting woke to how politically ascendant the forces of autocracy are in American political life on now the state level and ultimately the national level.

If nothing else, the center-Left freak out about the Tennessee Three is definitely an unsettling ping from a potentially dark and violent figure. The very things I keep writing about and worrying about could very well come true as part of the 2024 election cycle.

Stay tuned.

America Continues To Careen Towards Catastrophe In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. So, there is every reason to believe that I’m wrong and somehow we’ll punt the severe, existential problems that the nation faces down the road one more election cycle. And, yet, as I have been ranting about for some time now, it definitely SEEMS as though at some point in late 2024, early 2025 we will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Either we just shrug and slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy that will cause 1 million smug, wealthy liberals to flee the country or the most powerful nation in the world collapses into some sort of civil war. If it’s civil war, it could go either way, with either Reds leaving the Union because Trump loses or Blues leaving because he wins.

I believe this because on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has radicalized to the point that it could be that the passions of the 2024 election will simply be too much for the country and we collapse into a French Revolution-style event that would cause unprecedented instability across the globe.

All the signs are there, but as I have said before, it could be that we peacefully transition from our current anocracy into a full blown autocracy. Many, many smug wealthy liberals who could otherwise fight the autocrat will simply flee the country for the four corners of the globe.

But I still just don’t know what is going to happen. And, it could turn out that somehow, miraculously, we manage to not only avoid electing a fascist Republican in 2024 but fascist Republicans choke and don’t decide to leave the Union in a pique of secessionist fury.

I suppose it’s possible.

The Looming Crisis: Everything Is So Conflated in Modern American Political Debate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue when it comes to modern American political debate is it’s almost like we’ve given up. All the conditions are there for autocracy or civil war and it literally could break either way at this point. I say this because the two sides of Red and Blue are receding from each other at an astonishing rate.

Either we turn into a MAGA themed autocracy or we have a secession crisis in late 2024, early 2025 because one side or the other gives up and decides they can no longer being in the same nation with a political worldview that they hate.

Take, for instance, the Great Gay Scare that we are currently living through. Everything so fucking conflated. First, let me be clear — I generally support Trans rights and generally don’t care what someone does with their body as long as everyone involved is of age and it’s consensual.

And, yet, as I keep saying the Trans is doing itself no favors by being so overwrought and touchy. There are some very well-meaning, God-fearing people who believe just being gay is a “sin” and they are aghast at there are people who have to pause for 10 minutes before they can answer, “What is a woman?” These very sincere people can’t be blamed if they have begun to think that Trans people are some sort of “protected class” and the “woke” narrative about Trans people can never been questioned. Throw in the wedge issue of Trans kids and….Jesus Christ.

The issue is — if we were a functioning democracy, there would be some give and take between Red and Blue to the point that gradually there would be some consensus as to what to do with the Trans movement and then we would move on to the next pressing issue.

But because of the “Gay Scare” on the Right and the total fucking freak out about when it comes the established Trans orthodoxy on the “woke” Left the whole thing is totally fucked up. The controversy over the Trans issue is yet another corrosive element in our politics which is drive the two sides away from each other and making the United States increasingly unstable on a political basis.

I’m always wrong, and, yet just doing a back-of-the-envelope projection out to late 2024, early 2025 and definitely seem as though we’re either going to collapse into civil war or we’re going to become a MAGA-themed autocracy.

We Ignore The Systemic Radicalization of The Republican Party At Our Own Risk

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On the surface, it seems as those because of demographics that MAGA is waning. The case could be made that January 6th was the high water mark of MAGA and now, in general,the entire movement is on the backfoot and will ultimately fade into oblivion.

And, yet.

The issue is that on a systemic basis, the edificate of the Republican Party is now radicalized to the point that I’m worried that we may have a secession crisis in 2024 – 2025 in one of two ways. Either Trump loses and Republicans at the state level heed his demands for secession, or he wins and his second term agenda is such that Blue States feel pushed out of the Union.

A this point, it could go either way, I’m afraid.

I do tend to lean towards if Trump wins that all that will happen is about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country so they can record their smug, elite podcasts in the south of France. I just don’t know if Blues have it in them to take the radical step of leaving the Union at the state level.

Meanwhile, by 2024, it definitely seems as though Red States are prepared to bounce if they don’t get what they want as part of the 2024 election. As always, everything rests on with ding-dong Trump. About 60% of the American population absolutely hates his guts and, yet, he is well on his way to be the next president of the United States.

Go figure.

If I Had A Spare $300, I Would Travel To NYC Tonight To See Malignant Ding-Dong Trump Arraigned On Tuesday Afternoon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I went for a walk today to clear my mind and in the middle of it it occured to me that I have the motive and the opportunity — but not the means — to use the ChinaTown Bus from Richmond to travel to NYC tonight in time to see ding-dong Trump be arraigned.

But, having thought it over a few hours, the fact remains: I just don’t have the money. It would be about $300 for the entire trip — factoring in the unexpected that might force me to stay overnight — and I just don’t have that kind of money to my name at the moment. I suppose I *could* go, but I wouldn’t be able to eat all day and if something happened whereby I was forced to stay overnight Tuesday….yikes!

And I would definitely be tempted to stay overnight — I would love to spend Tuesday evening at Sing Sing Ave. A singing my heart out. I love that bar and it’s always a highlight of any stay in NYC.

The only reason why I even seriously contemplate such a dumb, expensive idea is I almost went to D.C. on January 6th, but it was too cold. I regret that I wasn’t there to record that clusterfuck and there is a greater-than-zero chance that MTG might somehow spark similar violence tomorrow afternoon.

And, yet, tomorrow, at the moment at least, is shaping up be historic, but mundane. I don’t think there’s going to be violence at all (thankfully.) If I did have a spare $300 on me, I would already be on my way to Richmond to stakeout the ChinaTown bus station.

But, alas, I just don’t have it at the moment. And I have too much pride to ask anyone to spot me $300 for a few months so I can go tonight. So, I think instead of rushing to Richmond, I’m just going to do some day drinking while I try to finish the last scene of the first chapter of the second draft of my novel.