Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Let’s Rock

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The same dynamic that led me to start this planned six novel project in the first place is back in place — I’m enraged by MAGA. I’d kind of calmed down the last few years because of the Biden Administration being very normal. But the reaction on the part of MAGA to the FBI simply holding Trump accountable has so enraged me that I find myself focused again.

Let’s get writing!

That’s the whole point of this novel series — to have a place to vent about how much I fucking hate the extremes of Trumplandia and the “woke cancel culture mob” (if you will.) I’ve set up the universe of the novel on an existential basis so if you read all six novels you will not only know way, way, way too much about me, but you’ll also get (through subtext) me preaching about how fucked up the extremes of both sides are.

Of course, I hate MAGA way, way, way, way more than I hate the “woke cancel culture mob.” The woke mob is illiberal and destructive and I hate it. But that’s all soft power. The fucking MAGA cucksuckers want to use hardpower to, well, uh, “solve” the problem that is ME.

Anyway, the point is, I’m going to spend the next few days recharging my batteries and then hopefully jump out of the gate to start working as hard as I can to finish six novels that conclude with a very unique, interesting universe for my characters to run around in.

Now, of course, there is the issue of timing. It’s very possible that I could do all this hard work and, lulz, in the end, there’s either a civil war or the autocracy gets so bad that I can’t even publish the novels.

And, it’s not like all six novels would be published all at once. They would be staggered, so I’m kind of flying blind. Things could have changed so much by the last novel comes out that it will see very, very dated. It’s just taken me a lot — and I mean A LOT — longer for me to figure out this first novel than I originally imagined.

And then I turned what was supposed to be just two novels telling one story (with a cliffhanger in between them) into a sprawling six novel epic that explains how things got so fucked up (in America and in the fictional place I’ve come up with.)

Of course, there’s the issue of me.

I not only (apparently) come across as a crazy nutjob from my social media output, but I’m also not exactly getting any younger. So, if you factor in I have to get an agent, then sell the first novel then stagger the release of five novels after that, well, I could be Really Old in Real Terms by the time that process is finished.

But I really love this universe I’ve come up with. I do need to work on some short stories and I also need to have a few back up novel worked out as I go forward.

Anyway. I know I keep saying this and then months and years slide by and I really haven’t gotten anything done that can be published. But I have learned a whole lot and I’m getting a lot better as a writer and a storyteller. These things just take time.

I just hope I live long enough to see everything come to a successful conclusion.

I May Have Discovered A ‘Red Line’ For Traditionalists That Doesn’t Involve People Like Me Being Snatched Off The Street By ICE At President DeSantis’ Direction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love my relatives dearly and, in general, it’s always fun to have a political discussion with someone who disagrees with you. That’s supposed be the heart of the politics of a democracy, at least. Until today, I assumed there was only one red line for my Traditionalists relatives — the personal.

That is, me literally being snatched off the street by weaponized ICE at some point after 2025 when President DeSantis finally strangles what’s left of our democracy.

But I was apparently wrong — there’s a Red Line before that: political violence.

Of course, it would have to be MAGA who started the political violence for my Traditionalist relatives to finally, finally be willing to say enough is enough and to maybe (?) make common cause with the center-Left for the sake of the country. If both sides were involved in the violence or if the center-Left did it, then, no, not even political violence would be a Red Line for my Traditionalists relatives because they could just write it off as the woke cancel culture mob being mad because they weren’t able to turn every last person in the world gay.

That’s their sentiment, not mine — I’m just the messenger.

Anyway, I think it’s a testament to the political temperament of Americans when it comes to political violence. Republicans, if they do, in fact, at last freak the fuck out and start murdering people in cold political blood really risk losing the Traditionalist vote.

That would cleave off a sold 18% of their electoral support.

But I think, in practical terms, that if things have gotten so bad in the United States that there’s actual political violence in the street then, lulz….it’s going to be too late by that point. It won’t matter which side Traditionalists are on in real terms. We’d be going to the show.

Political violence has a dynamic all its own and once you let that out of its tube, there’s no fast and hard answers as to where it might stop.

Life During Anocracy: On Edge

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ever since the January 6th Insurrection, the United States has been classified by political scientists as an “anocracy” rather than a democracy. And given how absolutely hysterical the Right has grown with the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago, we’re lurching towards a new, disruptive moment in this new historical and political phase in American history.

I will be shocked — but not surprised — if there’s major political violence at any moment. An terrorist explosion. An organized attempt to “eliminate” any number of high profile government officials. And you know that Fox News, after about 24 hours of “thoughts and prayers,” will come roaring back with talking points about how “America has a mental health crisis.”

They will go right back to be insane and goading their views to hurt people for political reasons.

If my fears come true — remember, I’m almost always wrong — then it would happen in the context of the 2022 midterms and then the 2024 presidential election. I will be flabbergasted if we make it through the 2023 – 2025 timeframe without significant political violence. Like, the worst political violence since the end of the First American Civil War.

It’s going to be very scary and either it’s the starting off point of a National Divorce or it’s how we start our autocratic journey. Because those are our two choices — autocracy or civil war. I suppose you might say we could have some sort of military junta….but that’s just on paper.

The passions of the late 2022 – early 2025 era will just be too much. No more middle ground. Everyone is going to have to pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you. And, in the end, I think we’re just going to slide into autocracy. Poors like me will have to either shut up or get shot in the back of the neck by an ICE agent while wealthy Blues will leave the country en masse for various corners of the globe.

Don’t know what to tell you other than — if you can, get your affairs in order and get the fuck out of the United States. We’re going to either implode (autocracy) or explode (civil war.) And in either situation there’s going to be a Great Reset with WW3 involved.

At least with the Second Civil War option, I suppose there’s a chance that after WW3 happens a few billion people die, if the Good Guys win that Humanity will unite and we’ll be able to address global climate change.

But that’s a big if.

‘Planted’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think we may know — if today’s Newsweek story is to be believed — why the FBI swooped in to Mar-a-Lago when it did. They had specific, credible information as to where the Classified documents were located. So, they went in ASAP to get the documents while the information was still hot and relavant.

Now, this brings up the issue of how Trumplandia is screaming at the top of its lungs right now that the FBI OBVIOUSLY “planted” evidence during its raid. If that’s not a tell, I don’t know what is.

As such, I think it’s safe for us to assume that it’s at least possible that Trump had Something Big in his possession when the FBI stormed the place. Which leads to the question of, what was it?

I have no idea. But for Trumplandia to rush to yet ANOTHER Big Lie instantly leads me to believe that whatever it is, it’s gotta be pretty big. Or, at least, Trump is freaking out about it.

It could be that we’ll never know. Trump is so good at “criming” that by the time we get anywhere close to knowing the truth, he’ll be POTUS again and we’ll all be so busy trying to leave the country now that we’re an autocracy that we won’t have time to care about all the secrets Trump stole.

‘Access Journalism & Its Discontents’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the name of full disclosure — Maggie Haberman was weirdly mean to me on Twitter one time and I never let anything go. Never. But, anyway, Ms. Haberman is an interesting press creature because she seems to inhabit the gray zone between just another establishment journalist and someone who is an active part of Trumplandia.

This is how Trump should be handled by The New York Times. Wink.

I think some of it may come from her potential political proclivities — I think she used to work for The New York Post.

Here’s where things get nebulous.

The conventional Twitter wisdom is Haberman is an “access journalist,” and, yet, that’s so ill-defined that she has every reason to get angry when people accuse her of this. (Which is probably why she got mad at ME.) She can rightfully say that she’s just doing her job and any talk of “access journalism” is coming from people who don’t understand how journalists do their jobs.

That, at least, is how all the journalists who circle the wagons around Haberman talk whenever the Twitter mob comes after her. But I do think any objective third party would say Haberman is a little too close to Trump. And she pulls her punches so as to remain chummy with Trumplandia.

That’s my hot take on the issue.

But I’m a freaky weirdo loser in the middle of nowhere and she’s a successful normal person with a great career at The New York Times. Who am I to judge?

When We Become ‘A Very American Autocracy,’ It Will Be Legalistic In Nature

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’ve given up. While the exact timetable of when the United States becomes an autocracy is still up in the air, the fact that we’re going to become one is now a political and historical absolute. (Or, of course, we have a civil war.)

But given that whatever type of autocracy we have will have its own American spin to it, I suspect it will be a lot like the Russian style which is very legalistic in nature. Putin likes to go through the whole rigmarole of getting passing a law or getting “permission” to do this or that thing, but, in the end, it’s all a sham. And I think that’s what American autocracy will look like.

As such, when Trump or President DeSantis arrests their 2028 opponent on trumped up charges, they will have so crammed the government with their toadies — a “Deep State,” if you will — that the folks on Morning Joe will struggle to prove what everyone will already know: the arrest was political in nature.

And that’s because all of the legal requirements for the arrest will have been met, but the context will be totally different than what it would have been now when the United States is an anocracy, not an autocracy.

The whole point is — we’re fucked. It’s over. Get out while you can. Poors like me are going to probably get shot in the back of the head by ICE because we won’t shut up about how President DeSantis is a cocksucker, while wealthy Twitter liberals will flee to the south of France and wax poetically about how Mueller, She Wrote just wrote a Twitter thread that “destroys” the autocracy in America.

I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know when exactly all of this is going to happen, but, in general, I would suppose that it will happen starting around 2024 – 2025.

Schrodinger’s Secrets

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is there are some issues where you don’t know what the fuck is going on. Take his taxes, for instance. Is it an ego thing or is there something actually there that might hurt him politically? And, now, we have the same situation with the Top Secret documents that Trump spirited away from the White House when he left office.

For the moment, they are both the nuclear codes and just random things classified for no real reason. But, for whatever reason, Trump is willing to burn the country down rather than admit defeat on the subject.

Trump’s supporters have already sprinted towards the idea that the FBI has “planted” evidence at Mar-a-Lago to use against Trump. If that’s not a tell, I don’t know what is. AND, what’s more, they have so far refused to release the search warrant. Another tell.

But it’s one of those things where we won’t know until we know. And because of the Fuhrer Principle of MAGA, there’s an even chance that either the lulz Trump literally being treasonous or they spin on a dime and turn their devotion to someone like Ron DeSantis who does exactly the same thing Trump would do, only faster and more adept.

As I keep saying, we’re fucked. I’m too poor to leave the country, so I fully expect to be shot dead by a weaponized ICE at some point after around 2025. Don’t quite know what I’m going to do about that situation. Or we have a civil war and I have to flee to a Blue State.

Good luck.

A Fascist Dog Without A Bite

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my favorite YouTube channels is History Matters. And I often find myself thinking about how a future History Matters video might depict the fucked up politics of modern America.

And, yet, there’s one interesting thing about modern American politics that is interesting for what isn’t happening — for all the violent rhetoric of the MAGA New Right, there hasn’t been any major political violence since January 6th. It’s very curious in its absence. Not that I want any political violence, but you would think given how much the MAGA New Right rants about how they want to murder like me in cold political blood that they would eventually get around to doing it.

I don’t want to go into details of what I’m talking about because I don’t want to give anyone any ideas, but let’s just say the American government is a “target rich” environment if you were an insane Right Wing nutjob.

The absence of any major political violence since January 6th makes me feel a little bit better. It makes me believe that we’re probably just going to slide peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

Is Trump Capable of Selling American State Secrets?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know about this one. It’s too easy to jump to conclusions. And, as someone known to jump to conclusions, the idea that the reason why the FBI swooped in on Mar-a-Lago was they had evidence that Trump was selling state secrets….is a bridge to far. At least for now.

The reason why I think this is — for about six years, I came up with all these evil, elaborate schemes that Trump might do. And the he proceeded to impress me with how fucking stupid and lazy he was. Instead of simply firing people in the summer of 2020 until he got the result he wanted — an indicted Hunter Biden — he waited until the absolute very last moment to stage an autocoup. He is so dumb — and lazy. Don’t forget lazy.

So, there would be something next-level for Trump to do something so nefarious as sell American state secrets for cold hard cash. It just seems like another one of those obvious plots I came up for Trump between 2015 and 2021 that he never did because he was too stupid and lazy to pull them off.

And, yet, I guess the case could be made that since money would be involved and it would be a very, very simple plot — secrets for cash — that even Trump could pull it off. But, Trump is such a dingus that I struggle to imagine him being able to keep something so huge secret. He would say something now and again about it that would be weird and we would all be scratching our heads about why he said some odd ball thing out of the blue.

Like the toilet flushing thing.

If you put in the context of him constantly flushing secrets down the toilet, then, yes, his obsession with being able to flush the toilet “like the good old days” makes a lot of sense.

Anyway, I suppose it’s at least possible that Trump could have done cold, hard treason with state secrets, but I seriously doubt it. And, remember, even if we could somehow magical politically neutralize Trump, there are a dozen other would-be Republican autocrats who are younger, more organized and focused than Trump ever has been.

We’re fucked. Get out. I’m too poor to get get out of the country so I’m probably going to die at the hands of a weaponized ICE at some point after 2025 when an autocrat becomes POTUS.

Trump Selling State Secrets Would Be The Dumbest, Darkest Timeline

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not prepared to seriously suggest that Trump would be so dumb as to get caught selling state secrets to, say, the DPRK or Russia. But it’s one of those things where we know the conditions at least exist for such a thing to happen. So, you’re left pondering something very dark and very dumb as being a very real possibility.

The Darkest Timeline.

Now, some context.

I don’t think Trump would really process what he was doing as “selling state secrets to the highest bidder.” He probably would see it more along the lines of “doing a buddy a solid” or something like that. While the most obvious person Trump would be selling access to state secrets to would be Russia, the DPRK is also definitely an option.

I say this because Trump loves Kim Jung Un (ick) and the whole DPRK régime is so weird that it’s at least possible that they might lean into personal relationship that Trump has with Kim to see if they can nab some state secrets from their good buddy and pal Trump.

And, given that the US is still technically at war with the DPRK because of the Korean War…well, that really does add an interesting complication to the problem at hand. And, honestly, that’s the thing that is so interesting about what is going on — why what happened for the FBI to strike now? Did they learn something? Did Trump do something so egregious that they had to move in to stop him from continuing to do it?

But the thing we have to contemplate tonight is this — there is a greater-than-zero chance that a former president of the United States has been caught selling state secrets to our most absolute sworn geopolitical enemies. And, what’s more, even if we politically neutralize him, there are a dozen other would be-autocrats who will be the ones to finally end American democracy.

What’s more likely to happen, of course, is Trump will announce his 2024 bid and there just won’t be the political will to do anything about him, ever. Good luck. Get out the country while you still can, I guess.