Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The ebb and flow of history can lead to some pretty strange outcomes. The fall of Constantinople in 1453 flooded Europe with Greek scholars that led to all sorts of new thinking and, ultimately, the Renaissance.

Well, flash forward a few centuries and here we are — the barbarians are again at the gates of civilization and they’re probably going to break through. So, once MAGA turns the United States into an autocracy a flood of well trained, well educated wealthy liberals will flee the country for parts unknown. It also happened with the ascension of the Nazis in Germany and it’s going to happen in the United States.

These days, I find myself wondering not only where all those Americans will go, but how they will change world culture. I’m assuming that the first stop all these wealthy Blues will go to is Canada. But Canadians hate Americans, so it seems like Europe and Oceania might be a bit more receptive. I could see Perth — one of the more interesting cities in the world from my experience with individuals from there — might see an influx of Hollywood types.

Then, of course, there’s the chance that somewhere unexpected like the Philippines. The living is cheap, it has great weather and it’s big enough that a lot of wealthy Blues could land there and fall in love with the place. (I know I did when I visited a few times.)

But the thing we have to appreciate is end of American democracy will bring massive change to global culture. The States has about 335 million people. So, given the massive income inequality here — I mean, who can afford to use Blue Apron on a regular basis? — I could see as many as 10 million wealthy Blue Americans having the means, motive and opportunity to leave the country starting around 2025. That will be when MAGA Republicans seize power in the United States finally and permanently.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, it definitely seems as though the United States is careening not towards civil war but autocracy. There might be a it of a frantic spasm in late 2024 – early 2025, but in the end the forces of autocracy will be too great. Then at least a million wealthy liberals will flee the country en mass — maybe more. They’ll flee to Canada, Europe and Oceania, taking wealth and the cream of American thinking and culture with them.

Despite all the demands that people “vote harder,” the United States will become a Turkey – Hungary style autocracy with permanent minority rule. That’s what happens if we’re lucky. If we’re not lucky, we become a political clone of Russia.

I say all this because of the limp wristed reaction on the part of Establishment Democrats to the the end of Roe. There have been no major protests. No general strike. Nothing. The center-Left just gave up. So, as such, it seems as though the same thing will happen between Election Day 2024 and Certification day 2025.

We’re just going to give up.

There’s no indication that the center-Left is going to make any type of last stand for democracy or that there will be any sort of “National Divorce” that would lead to civil war. About 250 years of democracy will end not with a bang but with a whimper.

Nothing will change at first — especially if it’s President DeSantis we’re talking about — but gradually, year by year, white minority rule will be established and a whole host of very unpopular Republican policies will be enacted without any viable recourse for now largely disenfranchised Americans.

And, remember, for all the talk about Reds starting a civil war, they have no reason to. They have a vested interest in keeping the peace since they’re getting everything they want via SCOTUS and regular old anocracy politics. We’re fucked and get out of the country while you still can — even though I still think it should be taboo to do so in the face of our impending doom.

If there is a civil war in late 2024 – early 2025, it will be because officially losing our democracy will just be too much for American self perception and because of macro forces individual center-Left people will bubble up to the surface and be the leadership of some new Blue State Union.

But that seems extremely doubtful. We’re fucked. The bad guys are winning and will ultimately win.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As much as it pains me to admit this, my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — are fascists. They want white autocratic minority rule, even if they would deny it if confronted with the idea. But in total what they support is fascism.

A lot of different things are happening at the same time. A number of macro forces that have been brewing for decades are coming to a heads at the same time. Of late, the issue of trans rights has come to the forefront of the minds of Traditionalists. It’s such an effective wedge issue that whenever my Traditionalist relatives need to piviot to something else, that’s what they bring up. They get rather worked up about “groomers.”

It’s very, very unsettling.

They would rather live in a white autocratic state with minority rule than risk the whims of the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants to “turn everyone gay” and to “groom” 3rd graders. Ugh. They come out and say that while they don’t like Trump, they really like his policies.

And, as such, even if we magically got rid of Trump politically, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the job he started. Chief among them being, of course Ron DeSantis. He’s so popular among my Traditionalist relatives that they keep saying how they want to “vote for him three times.”

Just from my personal interaction, I can tell you that conservative white men are enraged by the “woke cancel culture mob” to the point that fascism seems very attractive to them. What’s worse, they’re in complete denial about MAGA is ascendant and all they have to do is be patient and they will get everything they want politically.

It’s rather surreal. They act like some sort of oppressed group when very soon their ilk will control everything and never give up power — at least as long as I’m alive.

I don’t have any solutions for you. I think we’re past the point of there being solutions. We’re in the montage before Something Bad happens. What that Bad Thing will be, I still don’t know. It will either be autocracy or civil war. For the time being, I’m just not prepared to believe we’re going to have a civil war. While I’m well aware of how civil war is on everyone’s mind, it definitely seems as though we’re just going to turn into an autocracy without even a blink of an eye.

Then, of course, we begin the process of gradually becoming a Russia clone and I have to worry about escaping ICE agents.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s quite regular for MAGA New Right people to float the idea of there being a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War. Here’s the latest example of this, found on Twitter:

Walsh’s hot take is sooo dumb because Red States would lose everything if they started a civil war. They have SCOTUS and they are politically ascendant. They’re one stolen presidential election away from controlling all three branches of government and away we go. And yet, here we are, with Walsh making it clear that he wants a civil war.

I really struggle with why the MAGA New Right does this when they have no reason to. The only thing I can think of is their grievances are so deep seated in racism and misogyny that they are extremely impatient and want everything they want NOW, rather than simply being patient.

The great irony will be, of course, when they do, in fact, get everything they want and then they have the audacity to complain when wealthy, well educated and trained Blues begin to flee the country in the millions. Not to mention how they will howl if there’s an actual civil war when Blue States, not Red States leave the Union.

I don’t know what to tell you. Republicans love to wallow in shameless hypocrisy and it’s meaningless and moot to point it out at this point.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I rarely watch or listen to The Joe Rogan Experience despite being pressured into doing so by the YouTube algorithms. But I did once see a clip of this big, beefy dude complaining about the evil liberal “media narrative.” Ok, let’s unpack this.

As I’ve written before, something is warping American politics. A group that was once the bedrock of our democracy, conservative straight white men, now feel under attack to the point that they would rather give up their American birthright of democracy than risk the abstract danger of “being canceled.”

Now, the reason why this makes me so aggravated is all of this is “soft power,” while Republicans are accruing hard power…by scaring straight conservative white men with the boogey man of fear of being canceled. I really struggle with the origin of the attack on “CIS straight white men.”

The obvious answer is “wokeism,” yet I believe that some of that is constructed by fucking MAGA New Right cocksuckers who get their fee-fees hurt when they don’t get everything they want. And, as I’ve said, the issue is maybe a combination of technology and a generational vibe shift have combined to make the baseline of the “media narrative” “woke” to the point that your average Joe Rogan guest freaks the fuck out about it.

But the issue is we’re careening towards a very, very dark future. Either we have a “national divorce” with Blues serving the papers, or we slip into autocracy and that will be that. The two sides are just too absolute in their views and the Reds are actively agitating for autocracy. They make it quite clear that they want a white Christian ethno state.

Anyway, we’re fucked. Get ready for the next few years to be very, very bumpy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Nothing is going to change. There will be no reforms. Trump isn’t going to be indicted and if he is, he will simply use it as a foil in his 2024 presidential campaign. Or if Trump doesn’t run, the Ron DeSantis will run and we’ll just skip the middle step of him being Trump’s veep. And if DeSantis isn’t Trump’s veep, he could very well pick someone completely bonkers like Gen. Mike Flynn and HE will be America’s Putin starting at some point after 2025.

The point is — get out.

Leave America as soon as you can. Or, if nothing else, figure out some practical contingencies. What do you believe in? What are you willing to suffer for in the real world? There will be no narrative. If you pick wrong, you may die or get tortured at some point down the road.

Or there’s going to be a civil war and if you’re a poor Blue in a Red State, you’re going to become a domestic political refugee with no understanding of what your ultimate endgame will be.

Now, it’s talk like this that got me blocked by Twitter liberal darling “Mueller, She Wrote” for being “terribly negative.” But all those dystopian scenarios are things I really believe may happen, with civil war on one end of the spectrum and autocracy on the other.

The thing that we’re used to, a peaceful transition from one democratically elected Western-style administration to the next, just isn’t going to happen. The worse thing about it all is the MAGA New Right is telling us point blank what their plans are and we’re lulzing it.

But you know that the moment the shit hits the fan that wealthy liberals are going to vote with their feet. They’re going to flee the United States en mass at unpreceded numbers. Even though I’m beginning to think leaving the country is probably my only option, I still think if Twitter liberals weren’t cowards and made it a taboo to leave the country so people would stand and fight then maybe I wouldn’t be so interested in leave the country myself.

Yet, here we are.

The very people who might help us at least slow our slide into autocracy — Twitter liberals — will be the first to bounce. And it will be even worse if we have a civil war instead. But, as I keep saying, if there’s a civil war, it will be Blues NOT Reds who start it and it will happen because of tectonic political and historical forces that will force individuals to bubble up to the surface to be heroes whether they like it or not.

So, get out. If you’re not MAGA and you have the means to get out of the country at some point between now and late 2024, do it.