Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that Roe has been overturned, the argument could be made that the United States should finally cleave itself into two: the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.

But there are a lot of problems with this. On paper, it makes a lot of sense. Red States can, finally make America great again without fears of the woke cancel culture mob stopping the process in their never-ending quest to make everyone gay. Meanwhile, Blue States can remain a Western democracy.

And, yet, that’s just not how it would work out. Even if you were to have massive amounts of domestic political refugee movements there would remain problematic states like Virginia and Texas that would implode if there was any sort of political division of the country.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue how do you convince the U.S. Military to peacefully go along with such an idea. The answer is — they wouldn’t. And if it’s Blue States that leave the Union in any form of national divorce, the probability that even the U.S. Military would collapse increases.

On paper, I’m warming up to the idea of a national divorce. But just in the abstract. I hate violence too much to actually want anything like that in practical terms. The only reason why I even bring it up is the other option is autocracy and it is inevitable that I will cross our new autocrat and find myself in some ICE camp.

Such a concrete concern definitely has a way of focusing the mind on other options.

I don’t think I’m being hysterical to think that’s a very real possibility for me in the future. As a loudmouth crank who often gets drunk, I’ve had the luxury of living in a Western democracy my entire life. Now that that is beginning to fade, I’m going to have to come to grips with my possible potential fate in a few years.

We’ll see, I guess.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Listening to the latest Deep State Radio podcast, it seemed as though they all were sooooooooo close to coming to the same realization as myself — in 2024 – 2025, we’re either going to turn into an autocracy or we’re going to have a national divorce and, as such a civil war.

This is key because there’s going to come a point when either Deep State Radio fuses with the #NeverTrumper movement and you have the creation of people I call Radical Moderates. These would be the people who rise to the occasion and act as the leadership for Blue States should there, in fact, be a “national divorce”

The other option is, of course, that instead of helping organize Blue States to fight for their independence from tyrannical Red States, Deep State Radio will be produced in the south of France in 2025 when all the wealthy liberals flee the country en mass.

As an aside, as I’ve said before, it has occurred to me that if it comes to civil war, Blue independence would be Blue war aims. It would take some extraordinary leadership among the Blues for their war aims to be re-uniting the country under their rule.

It would be much similar just to bounce altogether.

Anyway, I don’t that and I don’t want autocracy. But I fear, like I said, that we’re beyond the event horizon. The die has been cast. We’re fucked. Get ready. It will be interesting which way the fine people of Deep State Radio go.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is the summer of our discontent. It’s possible that the summer of 2022 is the last summer that the United States can legitimately be called a “Western democracy.”

I say this because should Republicans gain control of Congress again in 2023, the final sequence of events that will lead to the establishment of white Christian autocratic rule in 2024 – 2025. And at the moment, it doesn’t seem like there’s any stopping this from happening.

The center-Left is too weak-willed and divided — and, at the risk of being canceled, I think they’re focused on stupid shit like pronouns when democracy is at stake.

So, at the moment, there doesn’t seem to be the will within Blue ranks to stop the slide into autocracy. We’re past the event horizon when it comes to autocracy and the only question is will we magically get the will power to have a civil war instead.

I don’t want a civil war, but I’m growing alarmed at how blasé we are about how dire things are right now in the United States. The entire system is designed to keep people thinking about things like raising their kids and paying their mortgage, not thinking about abstract concepts like saving democracy.

A lot will depend on if there is any violence after the Dobbs decision is handed down in the next few days. If there is any significant violence when Roe is overturned, then that will give us some sense that maybe we’re going to have a “national divorce” and, as such, a civil war.

But, like I said, at the moment, we’re just going to slip peacefully into white Christian autocratic rule. Then wealthy liberals will begin to flee America en mass and such a brain drain will replace scary brown caravans as Fox News’ bugaboo.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You hear a lot of people talk as if as long as we never elect Republicans again, we’ll have a functioning democracy. The problem is, of course, is this is not possible. There is going to come a point when we face Republicans in power again.

And that’s the issue at hand — what happens Republicans are in power again? That’s the issue — what will be our reaction when radical reactionaries seize power again and simply never let it ago? I know that sounds hysterical, but it’s a very real possibility.

The reason is, the Republican Party is fascist and reactionary and we either have a civil war or we turn into an autocracy. Again, that sounds hysterical, but I just don’t see how those aren’t our options. Republicans — especially people like Steve K. Bannon — are pretty open about how they want to strangle American democracy.

And it’s not like we can stop them from ever gaining power again. So, in a sense, the Republican Party is, unto itself a macro trend that we can’t control. At the moment, I think we’re going to transition into an autocracy without a struggle. There will be a lot of wringing of hands about the transition, and a lot of wealthy liberals will flee the country because they’re a bunch of fucking cowards, but, in the end, that’s what’s going to happen.

DeSantis will become president at some point after Trump (or whatever), change the Constitution and 20 years from now we’ll be talking about Generation DeSantis and how he’s been the only president that millions of Americans have ever known.

Or, like I said, we’ll have a civil war, and “national divorce” and suffer through a pretty horrific civil war that will happen in conjunction with WW3. So, things are pretty stark. It’s not like we can simply assume the Republicans will never gain power again. And their growing more radical and reactionary by the day, not less so.

And, is so often the case whenever I talk about such things, a lot depends on what happens with Trump. If he is the nominee, then we’re more likely to go the civil war route. If he’s not, we’re more likely to simply peacefully become an autocracy.

But the key thing is –we can’t simply hope that Republicans will never gain power again. All they have to do is gain power ONCE and that’s it. The die is cast. Then the ball is in our court, then we have to decide if we’re going to have a civil war or allow ourselves to slip into autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re living through the montage before Something Bad happens in late 2024 – early 2025. What that Bad Thing will be, I still don’t know. And the reason why I don’t know is I simply can’t game out what the reaction to the theft of the 2024 election will be.

It could be that we’ll have a “national divorce” and, a such, a civil war. It could be that we’ll just slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. It could be that the crux of what decides the reaction of Blues to the 2024 clusterfuck will be if Trump is the Republican nominee or not.

Trump is so stupid and so lazy that he could, single handedly, spark a civil war by simply making Blues so angry that they feel no choice but to do so. But, again, I just can’t game things out.

There is every reason to believe that Blues just don’t have it in them to leave the Union. There could literally be a very brazen theft of the 2024 presidential election and…lulz. But anyway.

Every day that the 2024 election grows closer, the more we’ll get some sense of which direction things will go. For the moment, I think we’re going to turn into an autocracy without a peep of violence. The entire system is designed to keep people copacetic.

The key thing to look an eye on is wealthy liberals. If they begin to flee the country in anticipation then we’ll know which direction things will go. And, yet ,of course, wealthy liberals are probably going to flee the country either direction that things go. If there is obviously going to be a civil war, they’re leaving, if there’s obviously going to be an autocracy, they’re going to leave en masse.

I guess, then the issue is if Trump decides to run. If he runs, then the possibility of a civil war increases significantly. And then there’s the whole issue of how many times Biden and Harris will be impeached by by Republicans when they control the House.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why Texas’ Republican Party seems to have gone full-fascist is Republicans know that if Texas finally shifts purple that Democrats will have a long-term lock on the White House. The same process that turned California into a safe Blue State is happening with Texas and Texas Republicans see this as an existential threat.

So, they’re turning into radical fascists.

But the key thing we have to remember is for all their hysterics, it’s pretty self-evident that fascist Republicans are ascendant. They’re on the cusp of getting everything they want through politics. All they have to do is be patient.

As such, it’s very curious how Republicans continue to want to shoot themselves in the foot by doing something as radical as leaving the Union. On a political basis, it makes a whole lot more sense for Blue States to leave the Union around 2024 – 2025 as part of a broader Certification Crisis than it does for Texas to just randomly leave the Union in 2023 because they feel their feelings are getting hurt.

I really don’t know what to make of this clusterfuck. But it does definitely lend credence to my fears of 2024 – 2025 existential choice of autocracy or civil war. The Republican Party grows more radical and fascist every day and by the time we’re talking about certifying the 2024 presidential election, well, we’re either going to see Blue States leave the Union en masse or we simply peacefully turn into an autocracy.

Right now, it could still go either way.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the heart of what’s wrong with America is that Traditionalists have grown totally detached from everyone else because of an intense, deep seated sense of disenfranchisement. From my conversations with my Traditionalist relatives, they literally believe that the woke cancel culture mob is turning everyone gay. I’m not joking or exaggerating.

That’s literally what they believe.

The reason why this is a problem is Traditionalists are the bedrock of any stable democracy. It’s the constant struggle between Leftists and Traditionalists that is what causes a democracy’s politics to be functioning. Traditionalists are important because they temper the passions of Leftists while at the same time gradually, begrudgingly come to accept progress. This can be a messy, confusing and uncomfortable process, but for much of the last 250 years we’ve managed to make it work.

But now, now things are totally out of whack. Traditionalists have grown radicalized. Because of a combination of negative polarization and an extensive permission structure, American Traditionalists are now Good Germans who just need an autocrat. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat — an anocracy.

One thing that is disturbing and interesting is how Traditionalists really have homophobia on the brain these days. It’s replaced being “canceled” as their number on concern — the “woke gay homosexual agenda” is the first thing they go to whenever you broach the idea of, say, a unity ticket for 2024.

I don’t know how much of this is just because it’s the current Fox News scare tactic and how much of it is a legitimate freak out on the part of Traditionalist about what they see as “everyone turning gay.” It’s all very strange. It’s a prime example of some dark forces that were unleashed because of the Leftist culture war victory at some point in Obama’s second term.

Traditionalists are enraged with the social changes taking place in the United States and they will even come out and say, “I like Trump’s policies, I just don’t like Trump.” That’s like saying, “I don’t like Hitler, but I like his policies.” If our democracy has lost Traditionalists, then we’re on step closer to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war at some point around late 2024 – early 2025.

It’s because I honestly don’t know how to fix this problem that I think we’re either going to have a civil war or turn into an autocracy at some point around 2024 – 2025. We’re in a crisis and there’s no obvious solution or endgame. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I do know that Trump probably is going to run again — and win — and all those Traditionalists who love, love, love Ron DeSantis are going to end up voting for Trump again even though they tell me so adamantly that they don’t l like him.

Things are dark and getting darker.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m the red headed step child of my family when it comes to politics. Everyone else in my family is a bedrock conservative. And, as such, I decided to use that to see if my idea (stolen from How Democracies Die) that the USA should try a Unity Ticket in 2024 might work.

The results — nope.

The reason is, we are so divided that the idea of doing such a thing — even with an extensive power sharing agreement in place is so alien that the conservatives in my family simply can’t process it. They can’t seem to see that just because someone identifies as a Democrat solely for the purposes of heading a Unity Ticket in 2024 (without changing any of their conservative policies) doesn’t mean they’ve succumb to the woke cancel culture mob that is the Democratic Party.

So, we’re back to square one.

Or, put another way, something really, really dramatic would have to happen for something as abstract as “have a Unity Ticket in 2024 that will make everyone unhappy but will save American democracy for at least one more presidential cycle” will make sense to Traditionalists like my family members. They hate, hate, hate, hate, hate anything to do with Democrats to the point that they would rather support an autocrat that save democracy. So, in a sense, they’re Good Germans waiting for the opportunity to be Good Americans.

The cancer that is MAGA has simply grown too big and powerful for the quick fix solution of a Unity Ticket to take place. Though if some sort of tragedy happened, something big, that kind of preempted our slip into autocracy, THEN, I think you might be able to sell a Unity Ticket to Traditionalists.

But, for the time being, we’re fucked.

In late 2024 – early 2025, we’re either going to have a civil war because of a “national divorce” or white minority rule will be established once and for all. And if it’s the latter my family — whom I love dearly — will be cheering that transition on.

It won’t be until things get personal — when ICE rounds me up for getting drunk and saying President DeSantis is a cocksucker — that they will grow alarmed at the loss of freedom they’ve taken for granted all their lives. When the red line of it getting personal is crossed, THEN they might think back and realize a Unity Ticket might have been a good idea.

But, alas, it’s not looking so great for the idea now, when it would matter.