Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

My Hot Take On The ‘Great Awoking’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ugh. Where to begin with this one. At the core of the hypermodern conservative movement is fear among your average Traditionalist that they, personally, will have their life ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” simply for the crime of being conservative.

This is something at the forefront of the minds of people in my family. And I totally validate that fear. I suppose if all your content is MAGA and MAGA adjacent bullshit then the fear of being personally canceled because your political views don’t follow the “media narrative” makes a lot of sense.

Anyway, I struggle a lot with the idea of the “Great Awoking” because I know that a lot of my own views don’t fit the much maligned “media narrative.” I’m something of a kook and become even more so when I get drunk. As such, it’s very possible that I could very well be “canceled” at some point in the future simply because, say, I fucking hate the Bechdel Test.

God, I fucking hate this thing.

But let’s get back to the point — what the fuck is the “Great Awoking” in the first place?

Well, this is very complex question because it’s all very abstract. At some point in Obama’s second term it became clear that conservatives had lost the culture wars and we had reached the high water mark of social change in the USA. And this is laid the groundwork for the where we are now, where I spend way too much of my time struggling to figure out if we’re going to explode into civil war or implode into autocracy.

Young people — especially those juicy, juicy wealthy teens that advertisers covet — took it for granted that progress was always going to be easy. They began to love it when their favorite celebrity came out as gay. The list goes on. This changed how things were framed in the media because a lot of advertisers began to want to stay “hip” to what the cool kids were thinking.

At the same time, something about Obama winning a second term turned the conservative movement into a rancid, hateful piece of vile hate — and MAGA was born.

And so, here we are.

On one side, you have the center-Left that has a lot of soft power and one the other you have the center-Right that has a huge amount of hard power that continues to grow. They are, in short, ascendant.

And so now we have to sit around and wait to see if we have a civil war or if we turn into an autocracy where the “Great Awoking” is snuffed out once and for all by MAGA’s hate.

I have no idea which one of those two options we’re going to pick. But I will have a far better sense of things once Roe is officially overturned. If there is any political violence because of it, then, guess what!

But back to the Great Awoking. This concept is something I see bandied about by well meaning conservatives who want to understand what fellow young people are thinking. They’re like the earnest assistant youth paster who sits backwards in his chair and says, “Do you know who else was woke?” But for all their well meaning earnestness, things are far more dire than they realize.

MAGA really hates the Great Awoking and they are willing to destroy America to ensure its demise. The only question at this point is if they get what they want peacefully or not.

MAGA’s Coming ‘Light Touch’ American Autocracy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One possibility when it comes to America’s decent into autocracy that we need to think more about is what if you held an autocracy and no body came? In other words, the center-Left has a lot of soft power in the US…but pretty much jack shit hard power.

So, it’s reasonable to assume that it’s possible Trump steals the 2024 election, his veep becomes POTUS at some point afterwards, we become an autocracy….and….we don’t even notice much of a change in real terms.

President DeSantis, or whomever, just doesn’t give a shit what the late night hosts say — even though libel laws will likely be changed — and, in general the average person’s life doesn’t change that much. Sure, loudmouth cranks like me who get drunk and tell President DeSantis to suck it may vanish but that would be the outlier.

And, sure, a lot and I mean A LOT of wealthy Twitter liberals would flee the country, but the average American — the Good Americans — would just go about their business. They generally wouldn’t notice any change in their everyday life until it became personal.

Then, oh boy, they will get woke pretty quick.

I say all of this because it would definitely fit more in the collective American personality for there to be a “light touch” autocracy than all my dystopian hellscape hysterical fears. If anything, my hysterical “terribly negative” fears would be things that might come to be gradually to the point that we wouldn’t even really notice that much of a difference in everyday life at first.

But make no mistake — America is careening towards autocracy one way or another. Or we have a civil war. I don’t know which one yet. But I would suggest you enjoy these last few days of “normal” life. You thought the pandemic sucked, you ain’t see nothing yet.

A Very American Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I simply can not game out America’s fate at the moment. I will know a lot more pretty soon, however. Once Roe is officially overturned, if there is no significant violence then that’s a pretty good sign that we’re just going to slip into autocracy starting around 2025 and that will be that.

I hate having abstract fears, so let’s contemplate what an American autocracy would look like.

Well, the first thing we have to understand is a shit tone of Twitter liberals will flee the country. It could be over the course of the next twenty years (after 2025) as many as a few million. This will change global culture in ways that no one can predict. But when you have 500,00 wealthy liberal Americans living in the south of France smelling their own farts and drinking white Russians while whining about how autocratic America has become, well, that’s going to change things.

Thus, that will be the first big noticeable change to the average American once MAGA steals the 2024 election — a lot the people who would otherwise be in the Crooked Media podcast audience will no long live full time in the country. They will take a lot of expertise and wealth production with them and the US economy will subtly change and maybe even noticeably contract.

Fox New will turn its attention from hoards of scary brown people in caravans coming to the US to the hoards of wealthy liberals who no longer live in the country. They will whine and whine about this and tell their audience what bad people these Twitter liberals are for leaving.

That will be the first noticeable thing.

The next thing will be a growing demand for a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” That will probably be the big issue of the day at some point after 2025 as our new autocrat begins to consolidate power. (Trump is too stupid and lazy — I’m assuming our first real autocrat will be whomever Trump picks to be his 2024 veep.)

Another thing that will begin to happen is Republicans will pass a whole slate of long-wanted, and very unpopular, policies because lulz, who’s going to stop them? So gay rights will be rolled back — and that will be just the beginning.

And here is where my political speculative fiction begins to grow dark. Because of how big America is and because of the issue of race, it’s at least possible that America will implode into something very dark and scary indeed. Without any check on their ambitions the white Christian nationalists really will put people like me who refuse to shut the fuck up in camps.

In fact, much like Pol Pot, it could be the excesses of the American autocrat down the road that leads to their violent overthrow. But I find that outcome dubious — I think, in the end, America will simply become a political clone of Russia.

By 2045, someone who went from Moscow to Washington D.C. wouldn’t be able to notice any difference politically. In both nations, there would be no allowed political protesting and so forth. And, there’s a good chance that President DeSantis by that point would be thinking of carving off a big chunk of Canada because form follows function.

But, I suppose, we will all be at last grateful that no one risks being “canceled” by the woke cancel culture mob simply for being conservative. I hope it’s worth it, you fucking cocksucker MAGA dipshits.

Trump — Too Big To Fail

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one is going to save us. But there is a real possibility that the Congress’ January 6th investigation into the Trump’s involvement in the conspiracy surrounding that day might but a dent in his political viability.

But before you get too excited, let me explain.

First, but for the fact that we’re an anocracy and not a democracy, Trump would be already be a washed up has been. But we’re an anocracy where MAGA has absolute fidelity to their Dear Leader, Trump. But there is a small-ish chance that if Congress can prove Trump’s personal involvement with what happened on January 6th that the 100,000 or so people across 5 battle ground states that decide elections might no longer be convinced to vote for him.

And, yet, Trump is such a vessel for all the rot within the core of American politics and that that could be a lulz.

I read the new Watergate history and the same dynamic that happened with the investigation into the that conspiracy is at play with the January 6th conspiracy. There is a very compelling narrative and people who might not otherwise be all that interested in it — some of them are that are the 100,00 people who decide elections — that in the end, someone like DeSantis might swoop in and eat Trump’s political lunch.

But, remember, DeSantis would be a far more effective autocrat than Trump ever could be. The Republican Party is fascist now and, by definition, hates democracy and wants (openly) white autocratic minority rule. The Traditionalists in my family tell me point blank: America is not a democracy and fuck you, lib.

This is very unnerving, to say the least. That people I am related to don’t believe in democracy and don’t realize what they’re saying — they’re putting my life in jeopardy long term because if America becomes an autocracy there’s no way I don’t endup crossing our new autocratic regime because I’m a loud mouth crank who will eventually get drunk and in a public fashion tell President DeSantis to fuck off.

And, yet, MAGA is such a cancer that even if we cauterize the Trump wound, we still have to deal with it. And it would just be a question of who our autocrat is going to be. If it’s not Trump then it’s DeSantis. If it’s not DeSantis then….it could be anyone of a dozen other Republicans who see a life president in the mirror when they shave in the morning.

Remember two key things — one, there is a greater than zero sum chance that all of this is negated and we have a civil war instead and two, Trump could screw DeSantis over by picking someone like Mike Flynn as his veep should he continue to be politically viable after the results of the January 6 committee.

Anyway, once Roe is overturned, we’re going to have our first sense of what’s going to happen next. If there is any real violence in the streets because of that, then the chance that we’re going to have a civil war instead of an autocracy increases. But if nothing happens…we’re probably going to just slouch into autocracy.

Either way, buckle up.

Trump Has Served His Historical & Political Purpose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, I saw this on Twitter today and was immediately taken aback because now “normal” people are beginning to contemplate what I have for some time now: Trump is a transitional figure that will either cause a civil war or give us our first true autocrat.

The point is, as I’ve repeatedly written and otherwise ranted about, Trump is too stupid and lazy to be an autocrat. He’s all talk. Yes, should he become POTUS again in 2025, he will cause a lot of trouble and problems, but, in the end, it will probably be his Republican successor who is the real death knell for American democracy.

And, remember, Trump could very well just as start a civil war by being himself and “saying the quiet part outloud” as he could do anything else. In fact, I would say that’s the bigger Trump risk at the moment — he starts a civil war in 2024 – 2025 and we endup with some sort of National Divorce. (This could happen even sooner if Trump becomes Speaker in 2023 and he goes transactional on Truth Social, demanding Red states leave the Union in a ploy to pressure the Senate to convict Biden and Harris when they’re impeached.)

But back to the point — Trump doesn’t really matter anymore. DeSantis is the most obvious person to be our first American Autocrat, there are literally a dozen other would-be autocrats within the Republican ranks, waiting for their opportunity to do what Trump is too stupid and too lazy to do — end American democracy.

Things Are Going To Get Bumpy…Right About…NOW

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is it. Within a few days Roe will be officially overturned and we’ll get our first sense of if we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy or if we’re going to have a “national divorce” of some sort.

I still honestly don’t know which one it will be.

A lot depends on California. If the theft of the 2024 election by MAGA Republicans is just too much for California and they decide to secede, then we’re going to the show. But, at the same time, it’s possible that there just isn’t the leadership within Blue States for there to be any sort of “national divorce.” The New Slave Power of MAGA will finally put its knee on the neck of Blue States and that will be that.

I don’t want any violence — I certainly don’t want a civil war — but we have to accept that 2020 might be looked back upon as the last free and fair election in our history. Or, at least, the last one in modern antebellum America.

I have no idea what is going to happen. Things could go either way. But enjoy these last few days of peace and “normal” American life while you can.

Matt Schlapp Is A Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If there is a Truth And Reconciliation Commission in post-Second American Civil War America, among the people who will be brought before it by the victorious Blues will be Matt Schlapp.

He has got to be the absolute worst of “people who should know better.” He’s the leader of CPAC which is a bunch of fascists who want white minority rule in the United States. His dream is my nightmare, etc. But there’s no ready answer or solution to this particular problem.

Schlapp and CPAC are very organized and popular on the not-so-far-Right. They are mostly a group — as I understand it — of well heeled white people who aghast at the demographic changes in America and they see the “Great Awoking” as an opportunity to lean into the idea that the United States is a Constitutional Republic not a democracy.

And, well, they’re also fascists.

Should we slip peacefully into autocracy instead of have any sort of “national divorce” I could see Schlapp eventually having a very high level and conspicuous role in the new regime.

All I know is — Schlapp represents everything I hate in the Republican Party at the moment.

Jesus Christ, Does Mike Pence Need To Testify To The January 6th Committee

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Mike Pence is a coward. There is no excuse for him not to testify as to what he knows to the Congressional January 6th Committee. He has the means, motive and opportunity to change history by becoming the John Dean of the Trump Era.

And, yet, here we are.

What are Pence’s options?

If he doesn’t change sides, he’s always going to be a hasbeen. He’s going to simply drift into political nothingness. He is never going to become president unless he does something truly dramatic and drastic. And the only thing I can think of for him to do is to testify at length about what he knows about Trump and MAGA.

I mean, at the core of MAGA now is the rage directed at Mike “Hang Mike Pence” Pence that he would not do the autocratic thing and hand the 2020 election to Trump despite everything.

Why would Pence want to even want to be a part of a movement that literally wants him dead? And, let me be clear — Liz Cheney has not had to change one policy belief other than turn on MAGA and people are beginning to talk about her as a presidential candidate.

So, it’s within the realm of possibility that all Mike Pence has to do is become the John Dean of MAGA and he would be thrown back into the ring as a possible POTUS — just not as a Republican. Or, if he is a Republican still, he would be as part of a Unity Ticket — maybe with AOC as his veep?

Anyway, in a way, Pence’s situation is untenable if he wants to be a viable POTUS candidate. The question is, will he get woke in time or not — for him and for us.

How American Democracy Dies

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that the only unknown aspect of how American democracy dies is if it happens peacefully or violently. But how, exactly, would it happen? It would happen something like this — if we do manage to get past the weakest part of the whole situation which would be the transition from anocracy to autocracy.

It would happen rather subtly.

It would just become conventional wisdom that a Democrat can’t become president unless Democrats not just control the House and Senate but they control the actual number of delegations to the House. The thing that makes all of this possible is aggressive gerrymandering and voter suppression.

And, according to the conservative Traditionalists in my life, they specifically believe that the United States is not a democracy and they will support whatever is necessary to establish white (autocratic) minority rule. How do you shame people for not believing in democracy when they tell you point blank that they don’t believe in democracy?

The only question is — do we transition into autocracy peacefully or do we have a “national divorce” with the Red States getting their autocracy via some sort of Trumplandia and Blue States getting, I don’t know, some sort of United States of Canada?

At the moment, I think it will all happen peacefully. People will just give up on voting and because things won’t really change at first, lulz, what was the question? But there is, a greater than zero sum possibility that there really will be some sort of “national divorce” instead of the entirety of the United States slipping into autocracy.

But only time will tell. I can’t predict the future.

The January 6th Hearings Will Ultimately Be Value Free

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue is not that the January 6th hearings won’t be compelling or that they won’t lay out what happened in a cogent manner, they will. The problem is 38% of the population supports fascism and, as such, they won’t care what it laid out, no matter how compelling.

The structural and systemic problems that we face aren’t going anywhere. And, what’s more, as I keep saying, even if we magically get rid of Trump, there are a dozen would-be fascist autocrats waiting to take his place.

We’re doomed. We’re fucked. Get ready. Figure out what you believe in because the next few years are going to be very, very bump and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.