Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The USA May Collapse Soon

I’ve written so much about this that I’m tired of talking about it.

But the USA has a very decentralized form of government. If Trump’s incoming agenda is as radical as we all fear, the country could buckle. And if it doesn’t buckle in fall, it could buckle in the winter or spring.

And, yet, no one listens to me. I’m known to be really paranoid about such things and then nothing happens.

So, who knows.

Worry

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have written a GREAT DEAL about various civil war and revolution scenarios over the last four or so years. Many, many, many words and videos have been done on these two subjects by me.

A lot goes on in my Webstats that I just don’t see for various reasons. But today, I saw someone using Starlink in NYC looking at my civil war scenario whereby it’s the Blues, not Reds who leave the Union. I can’t predict the future, I have no idea what is going to happen.

But I do know that the Federalist Society is maybe gloating a little too much in a little bit too conspicuous manner. It is very possible that, in the end, it will be Blues, not Reds, who start a civil war. I still don’t think it will be any sort of clean “National Divorce” — the war will be a direct civil war over the USA “brand.”

And, if it happens, I fear it will be a fucking fight to the absolute death.

I really, really, REALLY don’t want anything like that to happen. But, lulz, out of my hands, folks.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. And I have no special insight into what may — or may not — happen in late 2024, early 2025. But at the moment, just around July 4th, 2024, I would say, yes, the USA is probably going to have a civil war soon.

I say this because we have a few scenarios ahead of us:

  1. Trump loses — no civil war
  2. Trump loses — civil war
  3. Trump wins — Project 2025 happens peacefully
  4. Trump and is deposed by Blues — civil war
  5. Trump wins, Project 2025 is too radical and Blues leave before he’s sworn in

    I have no idea of any of these might actually happen. But I am worried that they might. I’ve written so much about all of this over the last four years that I don’t know if there’s anymore for me to say at this point.

    Now, we just wait and see.

Anybody Got A Macro ‘Black Swan Event’ Laying Around?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The most powerful nation in human history needs some random macro event to save it from itself. A nice war between the two Koreas or China and Taiwan would be great right about now.

Or maybe Biden drops out? (But that wouldn’t fix the macro problems we face.)

Something, ANYTHING, to avoid what seems inevitable at this point — some sort of fucking “Fourth Turning” event starting in late 2024, early 2025. At the moment, I got nothing.

We’re totally, royally fucked. Either Trump wins and we have to put up with his tyrannical Project 2025 bullshit or he loses and we have a civil war. And that doesn’t even address the broader macro problem — even if Trump was out of the picture, the USA is headed towards fascism one way or another.

So….lulz?

The Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to take the idea of Trump going “full tyrant” in 2025 seriously. To make a long scenario pretty short, if Trump did go nuts in the early days of 2025, I think a General Strike by people in Blue States MIGHT be enough to convince the U.S. Military to depose Trump.

This, in turn, would of course cause a civil war because Red States would begin to leave the Union.

There you go, that’s how WW3 happens in 2025.

Well, This Will Be Fun

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a pretty good chance that there will be a political Fourth Turning at the same time we have something akin to a Petite Singularity. Nothing is for certain, but there is a pretty good chance that just as the USA buckles we will see AI take off in an unexpected way.

I have been messing with AI a lot of late and I’ve been stunned at how good an unexpected it is at times. It’s *possible* that the first use of LLMs in androids will be in some sort of dystopian American Civil War / Revolution that happens in conjunction with a global WW3.

Oh boy!

Or not. What do I know.

I do know that the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen starting in a few months. I just don’t see how we make it through the 2024 election in any form of peaceful existance.

American Ancien Regime: ‘Keep Passing Those Open Windows’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The American Constitution now has a pretty profound logic-trap built into it. If a president has immunity for “official acts,” what’s to stop him or her from engaging in a lot of defenestration towards anyone who gets in his / her way — including SCOTUS?

Now, obviously, a lot — A LOT — of people a lot smarter than I am are probably writing 10,000 word New Yorker pieces about this very thing as we speak. But the fact remains — we’re fucked.

And I stand by my prediction that given how stupid Trump is that we what might happen is he is deposed in early 2025 — if he wins — then there is a civil war. I only say this because Trump just doesn’t have the nuance of a Putin who turned Russia into a very legalistic autocracy. Trump is a very dumb, very lazy thug with a poor sense of the consequences of his actions and statements. What’s to stop Seal Team Six from murdering some person Trump doesn’t like when he tweets something along the lines of, “Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?”

Wouldn’t that be an “official act?”

And couldn’t Trump just pardon Seal Team Six for murdering Tom Nichols or Tim Miller or Rich Wilson whomever the fuck Trump doesn’t like? This is no longer a theoretical — this is a very real future the US faces if and when Trump becomes POTUS again.

I say there would be a civil war in such a situation because Trump could be such a dumb thug that he’s deposed in some way — maybe through a General Strike? — then Red States leave the Union….and there’s a civil war and WW3 happens with about 2 billion dead.

I don’t know what I’m going to do. I think it’s inevitable that some sort of MAGA secret police will throw ME out a window. I’m just too much of a loudmouth crank. Oh well. So long and thanks for all the fish.

Adults Are Speaking

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, someone from Washington D.C. looked at this blog. This alarms me to no end because it could be someone with the Federal government who thinks I’m some sort of dangerous lunatic, given all my ranting over the years about how much I hate MAGA.

I stand by my ranting, but the context is — I was simply processing some macro trends.

Now, well, lulz.

I’m fine. I’m just going to have to figure out what I’m going to do going forward. Given how my politics don’t fit where I live, there’s a good chance I’m going to become a political refugee at some point starting in late 2024.

Or, maybe not.

Maybe, I don’t know, we’ll just drift into MAGA fascism in a way that I, personally, won’t be affected. But I *am* a loud mouth crank. So, if things get as bad as I fear, I’m inevitably going to piss off the MAGA secret police soon enough and they’ll murder me in cold blood.

Hopefully not. Hopefully, they’ll just leave me alone because no one listens to me because they think I’m nuts.

Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am very blasé, in real terms, about how the USA is now has an elected monarch with today’s SCOTUS decision. Whatever. I have a novel to work on. And I’m well aware that if anyone actually listened to any of my past rantings about this particular situation they probably would grow alarmed.

There’s no reason to be alarmed! All my past ranting was just me struggling to accept the fact that MAGA on a macro basis is determined to turn us into a fascist state. I have a passport. If all else fails, I can just leave the country as part of the America diaspora that will begin when Tyrant Trump becomes POTUS.

I’m very harmless. I really am. Very, very harmless. I’m a man of ideas. A man of peace.

But I think we have to accept that this is it. Late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most profound events not just in American history, but human history. If the USA buckles, as many as 2 billion people could die because of limited nuclear exchanges across the globe.

Yet there is nothing I can do. I suppose if the absolute worst happened I might be able to help feed people in my neighborhood, but given that I’m Blue in a Red part of Virginia — I’m going to have to flee North, probably.

America is, on a macro basis, set to either become a fascist state in 2025, or buckle in a rather profound manner. Only time will tell which choice we will make.

There Is A Non-Zero Chance That Trump Will Be Deposed If Elected — And A Civil War Will Happen

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have written at great length about all of this over the years, but, in general, the reason why I think Trump is in danger of somehow being deposed if elected is simple: he’s an idiot. If he was a “Great Man” of history, he would gradually consolidate power and at some point between 2025 and 2029 call a Constitutional Convention that would rewrite the document to suit his needs (or whatever.)

But, no.

What’s probably going to happen is mass chaos in the guise of an aggressive implementation of Project 2025.

It’s easy to game out a scenario where the country buckles because of this. All of this is, of course, very speculative, but either there is a snap coup of some sort by the U.S. Military or we go straight to civil war where there is a “National Divorce” — probably prompted by Blue states — that would be more about who gets the USA “brand” that any sort of “secession” in real terms.

Or something like that.

The key take away is Trump is a chaos agent — and a dumb one. He is so ham handed and idiotic that he will bungle a historical gimmie, which would be transitioning the USA into a Hungary-style autocratic state.