The Trump ‘Historical NPC’ Proxy

Anything to do with Trump is too controversial for LLMs, so I used a proxy to talk about him. Here is what I got.
what might distinguish a “historical NPC” from a Great Man? the historical NPC has a huge influence on history, but rather than change it simply is a vessel for it ebb and flow

Some answers:

ChatGPT:

The concept of a “historical NPC” (Non-Player Character) versus a “Great Man” in history can be distinguished through several characteristics and roles they play in shaping historical events. Here’s how you might differentiate them:

Historical NPC

  1. Contextual Influence:
  • A historical NPC plays a significant role within the context of their time and environment but does not necessarily initiate or drive major changes. They are often seen as a product of their circumstances, reacting to the forces around them.
  1. Execution over Innovation:
  • They excel in executing existing ideas, policies, or movements rather than originating them. Their impact comes from their ability to implement, manage, or carry forward what others have initiated.
  1. Representative Role:
  • Historical NPCs often represent the broader trends, movements, or sentiments of their era. They may be leaders or key figures, but their actions and decisions are closely aligned with the prevailing currents of their time.
  1. Limited Agency:
  • Their actions and choices are heavily constrained by the historical, social, and political context in which they operate. They navigate within the boundaries set by these constraints rather than breaking new ground.
  1. Supporting Impact:
  • Their contributions, while significant, often support and reinforce the changes driven by others. They are essential in maintaining continuity and stability during periods of transition.

Great Man

  1. Innovative Influence:
  • A Great Man is often seen as an agent of change, initiating significant shifts in history. They possess a visionary quality that allows them to alter the course of events through their actions and ideas.
  1. Creation and Transformation:
  • They are creators and innovators, introducing new ideas, policies, or movements. Their influence stems from their ability to think and act beyond the established norms of their time.
  1. Individual Agency:
  • Great Men have a high degree of personal agency and autonomy. Their decisions and actions are not merely responses to existing circumstances but are proactive steps that reshape the historical landscape.
  1. Defining Moments:
  • Their impact is often associated with pivotal moments or turning points in history. They leave a lasting legacy that defines an era or initiates a new phase in historical development.
  1. Central Role:
  • They are central figures whose leadership and vision drive major historical events. Their contributions are seen as crucial and transformative, often setting the direction for future developments.

Examples

  • Historical NPC:
  • George III of England: Played a significant role during the American Revolution but is largely seen as a product of his time, reacting to the forces of colonial unrest rather than driving them.
  • Franz Ferdinand: His assassination sparked World War I, but he himself did not drive the course of history; instead, he became a catalyst for existing tensions.
  • Great Man:
  • Napoleon Bonaparte: His military and political innovations significantly altered the course of European history.
  • Martin Luther King Jr.: His leadership in the Civil Rights Movement brought about significant social change through his vision and actions.

Conclusion

The distinction between a historical NPC and a Great Man lies in their relationship with the historical forces of their time. While historical NPCs play crucial roles within the boundaries set by their context, Great Men are those who step beyond these boundaries, driving change through their vision, leadership, and innovative actions. Both are essential to the tapestry of history, but their impacts are felt and remembered in fundamentally different ways.

Gemini Advanced:

Here’s a breakdown of the key distinctions between a “historical NPC” (Non-Player Character) and a “Great Man,” as well as some nuances to consider:

Historical NPC:

  • Role: A facilitator or catalyst for historical events, but not the primary driver.
  • Agency: Limited ability to shape events independently. Their actions are often dictated by circumstances or larger historical forces.
  • Legacy: Significant, but often tied to a specific event or era. They may be remembered as a symbol or figurehead, rather than a transformative leader.
  • Example: Pontius Pilate, the Roman governor who presided over Jesus’s trial. His decision was pivotal, but his personal motivations were secondary to the religious and political tensions of the time.

Great Man:

  • Role: An active agent of change who significantly alters the course of history.
  • Agency: Possesses unique qualities (charisma, intellect, leadership) that enable them to exert influence and make decisions that shape events.
  • Legacy: Enduring and transformative. They are remembered for their individual achievements and the lasting impact they had on society.
  • Example: Julius Caesar, whose military conquests and political reforms reshaped the Roman Republic and paved the way for the Roman Empire.

Nuances:

  • Subjectivity: The distinction between an NPC and a Great Man can be subjective and depend on interpretation. Historians may debate the degree of agency individuals possessed and the extent to which their actions were shaped by external factors.
  • Historical Context: The same individual might be viewed as an NPC in one context and a Great Man in another. A military leader who wins a crucial battle might be seen as a Great Man, while their role in a larger war might be more of an NPC.
  • Complexity: Most historical figures likely fall somewhere on a spectrum between NPC and Great Man, with varying degrees of agency and influence.

In Summary:

While both historical NPCs and Great Men play important roles in history, the key difference lies in their agency and the extent to which they actively shape events. NPCs are more reactive and bound by circumstance, while Great Men possess the ability to drive change and leave a lasting legacy.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you’d like to explore specific examples or delve deeper into this concept.

Claude LLM:

This is an intriguing question that touches on different perspectives in historical analysis and philosophy of history. Let me break down the key distinctions as I see them:

  1. Agency vs. Conduit:
  • A “Great Man” is typically seen as having significant personal agency, making deliberate choices that alter the course of history.
  • A “historical NPC” (Non-Player Character), as you describe, acts more as a conduit for historical forces, embodying or catalyzing changes without necessarily directing them.
  1. Intentionality:
  • Great Men are often portrayed as having a vision or intention to change history.
  • The “historical NPC” might not intend to have a large impact, but ends up doing so due to circumstances.
  1. Recognition:
  • Great Men are usually well-known and celebrated in historical narratives.
  • “Historical NPCs” might be less recognized, despite their significant impact.
  1. Historical interpretation:
  • The Great Man theory views history as shaped by exceptional individuals.
  • The “historical NPC” concept aligns more with structural or materialist views of history, where broader forces are seen as primary drivers.
  1. Uniqueness:
  • Great Men are often considered irreplaceable; the idea is that without them, history would have unfolded differently.
  • “Historical NPCs” might be seen as more interchangeable; if not this specific person, someone else might have filled a similar role.
  1. Scope of influence:
  • Great Men are typically credited with broad, sweeping changes.
  • “Historical NPCs” might have huge influence in specific areas or moments, without necessarily reshaping the entire historical narrative.

An example might help illustrate: Gavrilo Princip, who assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand, could be seen as a “historical NPC.” His action had enormous consequences, leading to World War I, but he didn’t shape the broader forces of nationalism and imperial rivalry that made the war possible.

This concept raises interesting questions about how we interpret historical causality and attribute significance to individual actors versus broader social, economic, and cultural forces.

Would you like me to elaborate on any specific aspect of this distinction?

Trump As Historical NPC

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is there just isn’t much going on there. He is just an empty vessel. Trump just drifts through history.

There are no easy answers. I have no idea what will happen.

Three Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America faces three scenarios this fall:

  1. Trump Loses (No Civil War)
    In this scenario, Trump loses and he just rants about how he won and no one listens to him.
  2. Trump Loses (Civil War)
    In this scenario, he loses, and he rants about how he won and MAGA Red states begin to pull out of the Union.
  3. Trump Wins (Revolution, Then Civil War)
    In this scenario, Trump wins, goes full tyrant, is deposed and as such, a civil war happens because MAGA Red States want Trump to stay POTUS.

How To Survive The Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert. These are just my person suggestions. And, what’s more, there’s no reason to believe the United States will have another civil war. So, in that sense, this is all just mental masturbation. But here goes.

  1. Figure Out What You Believe In
    If the United States really does collapse into civil war, things are going to be existential — in the real world. As such, it will be no time for you to be wishy-washy and say you’re a “centrist.” Pick a side and be willing to die because you go through a checkpoint and you picked the wrong side.
  2. Be Prepared To Move
    If the country really does collapse, there are going to be a lot of domestic political refugees. So, if your politics doesn’t match that of the part of the country you live in — get ready to bug out.

    The following I don’t advocate. I’m just being honest with you.
  3. Become Something of a Survivalist
    If the United States really does have a civil war, you’re going to have to be handy with a gun. Learn to hunt. Learn how to negotiate for basic supplies. Things might get dark.

    Good luck.

A Grand Bargain?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have to admit, that sometimes I feel like we’ve waited long enough — let Trump win so we can sort out one way or another if we have the gumption to depose the motherfucker.

I don’t know how that would work out — and it wouldn’t in a way because it would cause a civil war — but I’m growing really frustrated with the idea that MAGA Nazis are always just one election away from turning us into a fascist state.

Having said that, imagine Trump loses.

There is a real chance that Trump will rant about the need for a National Divorce so he, specifically doesn’t go to prison. This raises the interesting issue of how we might placate him so the country doesn’t collapse into horrific violence.

I could imagine a situation where Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and states like Texas begin to leave the Union. I could see that out of desperation the be a huge amount of pressure put on Biden to pardon Trump for the sake of saving the unity of the country.

But I don’t know. It seems as though that by definition if Trump loses and states begin to call up secessionist conventions it will be quaint to think you could stop that momentum by pardoning him. But I think there’s a chance we all might try in desperation if things got bad enough.

And I can’t predict the future. There is still a chance that somehow, someway, we will muddle through the 2024 election without any of the “hysterical doom shit” I keep worrying about coming true.

But I don’t know…..I’m worried.

The Fire Next Time: Will America’s Possible Collapse Into Civil War / Revolution Mark The First Use Of AI Soldiers?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When it comes to AI and robotics, I generally think everything is going to suck because of human nature — just like generally, everything sucks with the Internet these days.

So. Lets combine my OTHER dystopian fears — the idea that the USA will soon collapse into civil war / revolution because of fucking Trump.

Wars usually are where a lot of “cutting edge” technology is first used. And, as such, it would make a lot of sense for the first use of “AI soldiers” might be in some sort of post-apocalyptic America where Red and Blue have finally decided to settle their political differences in the streets.

I don’t want anything like that to happen. I’m not advocating anything. I’m just…worried….that we really are totally, completely fucked and AI bots are only going to make a horrible situation even worse.

2025: Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.

So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.

Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.

What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.

And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”

No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.

Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.

Good times!

I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.

Counterfactual — What If Mike Pence Had Choked On Jan. 6th?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t really know enough to give you any sort of realistic, detailed counterfactual on what might have happend had Vice President Mike Pence gone along with Trump’s January 6th coup attempt, but let’s do some thinking about it.

The key thing we have to contemplate is how close we came to a civil war on January 6th, 2021. Given what we know of what the coup plotters wanted to do once they got Pence to punt on the certification of Electoral votes….oh boy. It seems as though they believed they wanted to use the extra time to get state Republicans to approve rival Electors that they could use the muddy the waters.

And, remember, there would have been a ticking clock to all of this — January 20th would be just days away. And the moment January 20th rolled around and we STILL didn’t know who POTUS is — especially in the context of the Insurrection Act having been invoked — then, well, it seems clear the country probably would have devolved into chaos.

At this point, it’s possible that the U.S. Military might have stepped in to sort things out. But the point is — Pence bought us all time by destroying his political career and we’ve squandered it.

Now, we’re careening towards a disaster just as big, if not bigger.

Death By Vibes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.

It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.

They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.

MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.

Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”

Oh boy.

All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.

So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.

On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.

MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.

But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.

So…lulz?

The Conditions Exist For An Election Catastrophe Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to just not know one way or another what to expect this fall. It definitely SEEMS as though the conditions exist for us to collectively lurch into a dark and uncertain future because of MAGA Nazis.

But, at the moment, I just don’t know.

A lot will depend on how close the election is in the fall. If it’s really close, then, oh boy, buckle up. There would just be too much of a temptation for MAGA Nazis to pull some sort of shenanigans.

But, really even if it’s NOT close, there are no assurances that Trump won’t rant about the need for a National Divorce for the pure personal reason of him not wanting to go prison. The country is primed and ready for us to destroy ourselves on way or another because of “vibes.”

The two sides just don’t like each other and MAGA Nazis, in particular, because of macro changes in culture, thing the center-Left is out to get them. The believe this so much that they often pull some pretty crazy scenarios out of their asses just to justify the absolute worst things they can think of for people who simply don’t agree with them.

A lot will hinge on states like Texas. If Trump loses and he really leans into the idea that conservatives need their own nation so they can be “left alone” then….maybe? Maybe Texas, because of how fascist and autocratic their state Republican Party is, could call up a secessionist convention?

And if Trump wins, it’s not like things are going to be all that peacefully. My key fear is that Trump is so lazy and so fucking stupid that he might go full tyrant on us to the point that he’s deposed in some way, which, in turn would cause….Red States to begin to leave the Union.

As I’ve said before, that leaves the following scenario as the only way we may it out alive in 2024 — Biden wins, Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and no one listens to him. Then he announces his run for 2028 and we punt all of the structural issues that might cause the greatest nation in the world to collapse because of “vibes” down the road another four years.