Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Fascists In The Family

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit. This weekend was the first time that I felt my far more conservative relative had crossed the Rubicon into pure cut fascism. Now, before I begin, my conservative relatives have been VERY GOOD to me and very gracious to save my sorry ass on a number of occasions.

So, this is not personal. This is just an alarming political observation.

I bring this up because I have a regular monthly political discussion with one of my intelligent, college educated conservative relatives. I have been trying to avoid these conversations of late, but this time we got into it.

The most alarming part of the conversation was that my relative — whom I love dearly — was officially all-in for MAGA and Trump. They continue to have reservations about Trump the man, but they are totally willing to give up their American democratic birthright to the autocratic aspirations of Trump the idea.

It’s all very alarming. When pressed, my conservative relative agreed with me that only something like Trump murdering someone would be a “red line” that would prevent them from supporting him in the 2024 general election.

Now, there is obviously a lot to unpack here.

The key thing that I notice is how similar to 1850s antebellum America the conversation was. Replace “trans rights” or “abortion” with “abolition” and all the arguments on both sides would be identical.

I pressed my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — about the idea of a National Divorce and they did not dismiss the idea out of hand. It seemed as though the idea of smug Twitter liberals talking down to them would determine if they were willing to tear the country asunder or not if, say, Trump lost the 2024 election.

All of this is very much a potential dystopian hellscape. The only glimmer of hope that I could find from the conversation is what my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — my do if all the as of now rhetorical things Trump could do in his second term became a reality.

There is a very small chance that if Trump did, in fact, go full Tyrant on America that that, unto itself, might cause my principled conservative relative to sit up and take notice. That, of course, sucks because we would have to go through the chaos and turmoil of having a full-blown tyrannical president.

I say this because my far more conservative relative simply can not believe that Trump would actually do all the tyrannical things that he very clearly says he wants to do in a second term. They totally dismiss Trump’s autocratic, tyrannical leanings because he wasn’t able to implement his autocratic rhetoric the first go round.

As such, if Trump literally does go full tyrant in 2025 there is a very small possibility that, on principle, my far more conservative relative might balk at such policies. Of course, that won’t help ME much because I could be dead after an ICE agent shoots me because I won’t shut up about how I think Red King Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

All I can say is late 2024, early 2025 could be fucking lit. We could see a series of surreal events not seen since the end of the Civil War.

We Are In Serious Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my recent conversation with my far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — is any indication, we are in serious, serious political trouble heading into the 2024 election cycle. The person is college educated, wealthy and intelligent, and yet, they are all in for Trump and MAGA’s fascism.

Now, I fear, I know what people in Germany felt in the early 30s as the Nazis were consolidating power. Christian Nationalism is now so mainstream within Traditional conservative ranks that there is No Red Line for Trump other than, say, them seeing him murder someone with their own two eyes.

Things are so bad, I fear, that if Trump is re-elected that the only Red Line that may exist is the personal. If Trump becomes president and comes directly after me and people like me, then, yeah, maybe my far more conservative relatives might sit up and take notice.

But, at the moment, they are so wrapped up with the “crisis at the border” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright with their eyes wide open. And, as I’ve long said, if every election your democracy has is existential then…you’re probably not a functioning democracy anymore.

I feel like a broken record saying shit like this all the time. But, I just don’t know what to tell you. We’re in a lot of trouble.

Is The Petite Singularity Near?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It will be interesting to see if just as the so-called “Fourth Turning” strikes the United States in late 2024, early 2025, so, too does a technological “Petite Singularity.”

If a company like OpenAI manages to invent AGI, then everything could change very, very quickly. AGI will have a near-instant influence on the economy because many, many jobs will be considered moot by the fucking greedy captains of industry.

It will be interesting to see how things sort out. I continue to be very curious about the intersection of politics and technology going forward. I still believe there is a pretty good chance that MAGA will evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that is against things like AI.

I do continue to believe that we’re in the middle of a vibe shift of some sort that will fully come to fruition — one way or another — in early 2025. I think we’re going to lurch into the future in late 2024 and we’ll all wake up in January – March of 2025 and realize a real sea change in both culture, technology and politics has happened.

Only time will tell.

This Will Be The Summer Of The Right Wing DEI Freak Out

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though Diversity Equality & Inclusion (DEI) is now the new “critical race theory” or “woke” in the lexicon of the Right Wing echo chamber. As such, it seems as though all the fucking misogynist, racist people who are Deep Red, will not shut up about DEI.

These people are going to pound the perceived problems with DEI into the minds of anyone who will listen. That’s all they’re going to tall about. And, I can tell you from personal experience that any reference to DEI is red meat to the base of the Republican Party.

My far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — are enraged by the very idea of DEI existing at all. It’s very much similar to trans issues in 2023 that was part of the Gay Scare back then. If you want to catch the attention of a Right Wing base member, you invoke DEI.

As we approach the 2024 political silly season, DEI is going to become a very, very touchy subject to the point that any mention of it will be very, very loaded.

Trump Is Actually A Really Weak Candidate In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The case could be made that but for how racism and misogyny are warping American political life, Trump would lose in a rather historic manner. Trump is just a bad candidate.

But the thing you have to accept, though, is because of the MAGA permission structure created by Fox News, et al, is that even though Trump is a weak candidate on a persona level — he could still win.

That’s why it’s so difficult for me to game out what might happen later this year. And that doesn’t even begin to address the very real possibility of a Black Swan event that will throw everything in the air.

So, there are two different forces at work. There are the macro forces that continue to give Trump the Idea momentum and there are the tactical problems with Trump that make him a very, very weak candidate. As such, I dunno. It could go either way.

And, what’s more, there is a real possibility that no matter what happens there could be severe political violence in late 2024, early 2025 because either Trump loses and there’s a civil war or he wins and he causes a Blue Revolution.

So…pray?

We Continue To Overestimate Trump The Man & Underestimate Trump The Idea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is he is, on a personal basis, a very weak malignant ding-dong. He continues to prove day after day that he’s an idiot who is just an avatar who rides the wave of history, rather than bend it to his will. The *idea* of Trump, however, is very, very powerful.

As such, Trump is very dangerous on a political and historical way, but he as a person is so lazy and dumb that he could very well bring the country to its knees if he’s re-elected because of what he represents to the people surrounding him. That’s why even though Trump is a idiot and lazy, the forces around him are smart enough to generate ideas like Agenda 47 and Project 2025.

So, the thing is — Trump is an embarrassing idiot, but a very dangerous embarrassing idiot. Too often, we conflate Trump the man with Trump the political idea. I still continue to worry that Trump in his stupidity could destroy America because he will thrash around in his tyranny in a way that the American people won’t be able to stand.

That, at least, is the nightmare.

If anyone else was in Trump’s position, they would be able to peacefully guide the United States into a Russian-style white Christian ethnostate autocracy. That’s my real nightmare at this point — that Trump will literally snatch people off the street in 2025 and that will lead to America being pushed beyond its political limits and some pretty fucking weird things will happen.

What that might be, I don’t know — and I’m not advocating anything.

But I still have some hope that it’s possible that Biden will win and we’ll punt all of these structural problems down the road for another four years. (I’m still worried that no matter what happens with the 2024 election we will face severe political violence, but that’s just me being paranoid.)

We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck are we going to do about Trump. He tectonic demographic and political history forces that have put him in the situation he’s in are so powerful, so potent that it definitely seems he’s going to become POTUS again, no matter what.

Then the shit is REALLY going to hit the fan.

A second Trump Administration would be a total, fucking catastrophe in a way not seen since 1865. It would be truly ironic if we found ourselves caused by a civil war that Lincoln wanted to prevent in 1860 and one that Trump wanted to cause in 2024.

It’s really going to be interesting to see how bad things get. Everything is so fucked up and there doesn’t seem to be any ready way to fix things going forward. Trump is so dumb and yet so powerful as an idea to the MAGA fascist New Right that, lulz…virtually ANYTHING could happen between now and early 2025.

Sometimes, I Do Agree With Marc Andreessen

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Marc Andreessen retweeted the above image from I assume Reddit and I have to say I agree. There does seem to be some bad juju in the air at the moment. It does seem as though Something Bad is about to happen in the near, near future.

Now, obviously, my interpretation of this potential Bad Thing is different than his. He thinks some sort of woke DEI hellscape is about to happen, while I think the exactly opposite — I think there’s a real risk the United States is going to lurch into an autocratic state.

Sigh.

Marc Andreessen is an very interesting guy. He’s obviously been Red Pilled and he’s so rich that should the absolute worst happen — the United States decend into anarchy because of fucking ding-dong Trump, he can just hop on a jet and flee the country.

But, alas, Poors like me don’t have that option.

So…lulz?

We Continue To Overestimate Trump The Man & Underestimate Trump The Idea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump, besides being a malignant ding-dong, is something of a political terrorist. And he get his power from how people conflate his political power with actual power as a person. Politically, because he is an avatar for some pretty messed up shit in our political system, he is something of a God King.

But as an actual human being, he’s just a lazy, dumb piece of shit.

The point is — if he becomes president again, it will say more about us as a nation than him as a political leader.

He’s not a Great Man. He doesn’t warp history to his personal needs, he just rides its trends. And, at the moment, there is a macro trend towards the United States become a white Christian ethnostate — or being forced to decide if it wants to become one — and, as such, Trump could very well become POTUS again.

This, despite what a fucking idiot he is.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way this fall. And if Trump becomes POTUS again, we will have only ourselves to blame.

Some More Idle Musings About Trump & Hitler From A Political History Standpoint

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The 2024 election could very well give political historians a great deal more insight into Hitler’s democratic assumption of power in 1933. I say this because Trump is demonstrably a weak candidate at this point. And, barring some Black Swan event, he should be in line to lose to Biden in a pretty dramatic way.

But because of two issues, Trump could STILL become POTUS.

One is how fucked up our political system is. Even semi-functioning democracies like ours have a political ebb and flow to them on a macro basis and as such, Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS, no matter what the fuck he does.

The man is above the laws of the state and of politics. He could eat someone. He could murder someone. He could marry Ivanka. He. Can. Do. Anything and STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

The other issue is Trump’s supporters like the “idea” of Trump. They want a white Christian ethnostate where there those sweet, sweet white babies are plentiful and gay people know to be quiet and stay in the closet. Which makes you wonder if that’s what happened with Hitler as he rose to power. To this date, people continue to debate how inevitable it was that Hitler, specifically would become the leader of Germany.

And if Trump is re-elected this year, then the case could be made that the two men are a lot more similar than you might think. Both had a certain momentum to their rise to power and, as such, when the time came, History Found A Way to part the seas so they could take over their nations.

But we’re not there yet. It could go either way. On paper, at least, Trump should lose. But, then, on paper, there was no reason to believe Hitler would be named Chancellor in January 1933.

And yet he was.

As such, I think there is a 50 / 50 chance at the moment that Trump will become POTUS again and all hell will break loose. Some stunning events could happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. Things that we’ve simply never seen before in American political life.

Political opponents might be snatch off the street or flee the country. Thousands of wealthy, well educated people might vote with their feet and leave the country. The idea of “show your papers” might be the central issue of the day. A Constitutional Convention might be a very real possibility.

What’s more, it’s possible that Trump will be so bad at being a tyrant that the Poors in Blue States who don’t have the means to leave the country might actually pull of a General Strike the crashes the economy and forces the U.S. Military to do something about Trump. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

Anyway, I’m waiting for some future historian to write “Hitler And Trump, a Dual Biography.”