Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Second American Civil War (or Revolution), 2026?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have pontificated so much on the possibility of a civil war or revolution to the point that it’s kind of silly for me to talk about it. But, let’s do it anyway.

I just don’t think there will be a civil war in the United States in 2026. Americans are not French and, as such, they are very, very docile. It takes a lot — A LOT — to rile them up.

The only possible way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war (or revolution) in the USA this year is if Trump actively fucked with the 2026 midterms to the point that he invoked the Insurrection Act or even declared martial law. If he declared martial law and tried to actually cancel the 2026 midterms, then, yes, we will have a civil war in the second half of this year.

But, otherwise, I just don’t see it.

Now, while we’re on the subject, I do think that if Trump ran for an illegal third term in 2028, then, yeah, that would cause a civil war or revolution. Big time. But, at the same time, I think Trump’s personal historical reason to exist on a macro basis is to destroy the existing Constitutional order to the point that we may have to convene a Constitutional Convention to fix things once he finally, finally leaves the stage.

But all of that is very, very speculative.

I will note that I have long thought that if there’s a civil war, it will because Blues have had enough, not because of Reds — why would Reds want a civil war, they’re politically ascendant.

Anyway, I can’t predict the future.

The Long-Predicted Vibe Shift Has, At Last, Happened

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the long, long, long predicted vibe shift has happened. We’re in a new era, it seems. Something shifted in our collective consciousness between Christmas and January.

To the point that just in the first few days of 2026, all hell broke loose both domestically and abroad.

Anyway, who knows what all this means.

I do think that 2026 is going to be a pretty monumental year. Usually odd-numbered years are shit, but I think this year is going to be very turbulent and shocking in ways none of us can predict.

I Just Don’t Think We’re Ever Having Free-And-Fair Elections Again In My Lifetime

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is not governing like he ever expects Republicans to ever be out of office again. And, as such, I think this is it. The USA as we’ve known it for 250 years is over. The end, no more.

For the rest of my life, the USA will become poorer and more introverted while the wealthy grow richer and richer. I will also note that I think Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the Constitutional system to the point that we are forced to hold a Constitutional Convention — at some point — to fix things.

Just imagine of Trump ran for an illegal third term and some (Red) states put him on the ballet, while some (Blue) states did not. If that’s not a recipe for a revolution and or civil war, I don’t know what is.

But, then, I think, Trump and MAGA would finally get what they wanted — the total destruction of what’s left of liberal democracy in America.

The Recent Murder Of A Woman In Minnesota By An ICE Agent has Enraged Me, But…Lulz?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m kind of the black sheep politically of my family and while I’m enraged by the murder at the hands of an ICE agent of a hapless woman in Minnesota, relative to my conservative (and gracious) relatives…it’s all a lulz.

So, in a sense, I can only get so upsest.

It does, however, make me wonder what Trump could possibly do that would be “bad” in their opinion. What could Trump do that would at least give them pause for thought. As it stands, I can’t think of anything.

Maybe if he started eating people? Having sex with dead people? Marrying Ivanka? Those seem to be the three things left for him to do that maybe, just maybe, might give MAGA people a reason to be a little less supportive.

But, as it stands, it definitely seems as though Trump is a god-emperor in all but name for about 37% of the electorate. He can break the law with impunity, he can do anything, say anything and the base because they hate trans people will support Trump no matter what.

It’s all very surreal.

‘Melted Ice,’ Lyrics To An ‘Ohio’ Like Pop-Rock Protest Song, Written By Grok

(Verse 1)
Sirens cut the midnight quiet
Blue lights flash on barrio walls
They come in waves like winter storms
Kicking doors, no knock, no call

Children hide beneath the bed
Mothers whisper, “Stay down low”
Fathers vanish into black vans
Where the melted ice runs cold

(Pre-Chorus)
They say it’s just the law
They say it’s keeping order
But the cages glow like embers
In the dark along the border

(Chorus)
Melted ice, melted ice
Hearts frozen then cracked wide
How do you look your children in the face
And tell them this is pride?
Melted ice, melted ice
The promise turned to dust
When the badge becomes a blade
And justice turns to rust

(Verse 2)
She was teaching third grade English
He was wiring houses in the heat
Now their names are just case numbers
On a spreadsheet, obsolete

Asylum papers torn to confetti
Dreams scattered on concrete floors
While the news calls it “enforcement”
We call it breaking down the doors

(Pre-Chorus)
They say it’s just procedure
They say it’s nothing new
But every chain-link echo
Screams what we refuse to do

(Chorus)
Melted ice, melted ice
Hearts frozen then cracked wide
How do you look your children in the face
And tell them this is pride?
Melted ice, melted ice
The promise turned to dust
When the badge becomes a blade
And justice turns to rust

(Bridge)
Listen to the buses rolling
Listen to the silence grow
Listen to the names they’re calling
Names we used to know
Somewhere there’s a mother waiting
For a child she’ll never hold
While we scroll past the headlines
And let the story go cold

(Final Chorus – bigger, more urgent)
Melted ice, melted ice
Wake up, it’s not too late
We’re the ones who let it happen
We’re the ones who close the gate
Melted ice, melted ice
Feel it in your bones
When humanity starts melting
No one’s safe, no one’s home

(Outro – quiet, fading)
Melted ice…
Melted ice…
How long will we keep saying
“We didn’t know… we didn’t know…”

Luminal Political Spaces: Anocracy In America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is definitely neither totally fascist nor totally free. Living in such a luminal political space is call an “anocracy.” With the shooting of a hapless driver by ICE today it’s possible Trump may get his chance to invoke the Insurrection Act.

For people like Trump, the Insurrection Act has taken on mythical proportions. They see it as a cure-all to all their woke cancel culture mob problems. Ugh. Anyway, I have long said the only way we get out of this situation is a general strike.

But, alas, not even fucking ICE murdering people in cold blood is going to get us to that point. I think we’re totally and completely fucked.

I think there won’t be free-and-fair elections and this is it. We’re just going to be Trumplandia for the rest of my life. We will get poorer and more fascist as things progress.

It was great living in a free America while it lasted, I guess.

This Greenland Thing Is So Dumb

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in a very, very dumb age. We have a Mad Emperor doing crazy shit here in America and we seem powerless to do anything about it.

The chief example of this is Trump’s fascination with owning Greenland of all things. It’s very, very dumb for lots of reasons because we can get everything we want from Greenland without going through the trouble of upending the entire global order.

And, yet, here we are.

It definitely seems as though Trump is going to destroy NATO in his quest to own Greenland. I suppose that was always the ultimate end goal of Trump’s foreign policy — to destroy NATO.

It’s times like these when I think Trump has got to be a Russian agent, or, at least, a Russian stooge of some sort.

If The USA Takes Over Greenland, We’ll Use The ‘Little Green Men’ Method The Russians Used With Ukraine’s Crimea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the situation on the ground, rather than come in all bombastic with Greenland, I think American “little green men” would slowly creep into Greenland and slowly take it over.

That way, there would not be any big confrontation, but at the end of the day, the USA would effectively own Greenland. (We already do, but lulz, Trump’s bonkers and wants a big win like taking Greenland by force.)

Anyway, as I keep saying, no one listens to me and I could get this right and no one would notice or care.

Oh My God, Trump Kidnapped The President Of Venezuela

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not shocked by Trump very often these days, but Trump kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela actually managed to stun me. I am well aware of what a thug Maduro is, but just kidnapping him out of the blue is a real dick move on Trump’s part.

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela

And, yet, here we are, with people hand waving what Trump has done and praising him for getting rid of a Latin American tyrant. Ok, I get it, but, man, it still makes me queasy.

I guess, if nothing else, I would prefer if there had been some sort of public debate about us abducting the leader of another country — an act of war. Something about how this has been handled is not cool.

And, yet, I guess we’re all going to be so happy that we got rid of a thug that we will just sweep the bad precedent this establishes under the table. What’s next, Trump kidnapping the prime minster of Canada?

My 2026 Predictions

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my predictions for 2026.

Trump Will Fuck With The 2026 Midterms
I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Trump is going to figure out a way to ensure that the 2026 midterms are not free and fair. To the point that there could be some domestic turmoil about it, potentially to January 6th levels, but it will be from Blues, not Reds this time. If Trump does this, it could be some serious shit that goes down as we enter 2027.

The AI Wall, Or Plateau, Will Be Obvious
I think at some point in 2026, unless something unexpected happens, we’re going to realize that current LLM architecture isn’t going to get us to AGI, much less ASI. This, in turn, could lead to something of a crisis of confidence in the whole AI ecosphere.

It May Become Clear That OpenAI is Netscape, Part Deux
I was alive during the rise and fall of Netscape Communications 30 years ago and I think it’s at least possible that — especially in the context of the limitations of LLM systems becoming obvious — that OpenAI may, in some way, implode. To the point that it is consumed by its business partner Microsoft. A guy from The Verge podcast came up with this one, but I agree with him.

The Economy Will Be In Flux
At some point in the time leading up to the 2026 midterms, three things may have happened: Trump will have appointed a toady to lead the Fed, OpenAI will have imploded and the AI bubble will have burst. If some combination of those things happen, then the pressure on Trump NOT to fuck with the 2026 midterms will grow a lot more intense.

Trump’s Economy May Sour, Restricting His Autocratic Abilities
Right now, because of Trump’s gilded economy, he’s easily able to play tinpot autocrat. We have a “K-shaped” economy and all the wealthy people with power and clout just are too busy counting their money to give a shit about what fucked up shit Trump is up to. But if the economy, in some, sours — probably starting around August or so — then those very same people will suddenly begin to pay closer attention to what dickhead, piece of shit Trump is up to.

The 250 Year Macro Imperial Curse Will Really Kick In
The rule of thumb is empires last about 250 years before all hell breaks loose. And I think 2026 will really prove this theory when it comes to the American Empire. And we’re doing it to ourselves with our eyes wide open because of racism, sexism and greed. So, lulz? I think 2026 will be the year when it really becomes clear that we’re in a mult-polar world now and China will pick up a huge amount of slack that the USA has produced on a geopolitical basis because Trump is a fucking idiot.

My Own Life Will Be In Great Flux
I think, on a personal basis, my own life is going to be thrown up in the air a few times in some pretty unexpected — and expected — ways. I think I’m probably going to finish my scifi dramedy novel, but I also think it will be September before I can really get around to querying. I think that while on paper I have stuck the landing and hit the zeitgeist in just the right way with the novel, I’m simply too old, live in the wrong place and am too much of a loudmouth crank for me to successfully query the novel anytime soon. But at least I’ll have had the fun of seeing how far I could get.

We May Create Our Own Aliens
It is at least possible that we may finally wake up to the reality that even narrow-AI LLM systems are, in some sense, conscious. And, as such, we might just see the first evidence of what I have long predicted — the Right will start to hate on AI, while the Left will start to get “woke” to it being a conscious being and want to protect it in some way. That will be pretty deep. But I think it may be closer to 2027 or 2029 before such things really start to kick in.

AI Job Loss Will Speed Up, In Context
I think that job losses directly related to AI will speed up, but only if the economy really sours. Otherwise, the job losses will increase, but at a slower rate because LLM systems just are not there yet when it comes to doing what our evil corporate overlords want: to do basic things like run the local Quick-e-Mart.

There Will Be At Least One Strange AI Event
Because of improved AI systems, there will be at least one major event like what happened with Kevin Roose of the New York Times with the LLM “Sydney.” Something really weird is going to happen, which is going to be interpreted in a number of different ways and will lead to a lot of debate about the possibility that AI is becoming conscious.

Apple’s Siri Will Be Good, At Last
Because Apple is giving Siri’s software over to Google’s AI, I think Siri will suddenly be just good enough that a lot people will be ecstatic. Google Gemini 3.0 is already best-in-breed as it is, and if you stick in to Siri, a lot of people are going to be astonished at what they can do with it. How many of them will “fall in love with it” as one tech person predicted on a podcast, I don’t know.

There Will At Least One Major Breaking New Event
At least once during the year, we will all pause and go, “Huh.” I don’t know what it is — I just don’t think Trump is going to resign for any reason — but I do think something on the global stage will happen that changes how we view the world. It will probably happen in August, too.