I can tell from my Webstats that MAGA Republicans who want a National Divorce search for the term and endup at this Website, only to find me arguing that it should be Blues, not Reds who leave the Union.
This is so fucking bonkers.
MAGA is politically ascendant. They are on the cusp of seizing control of the United States and turning the country I love into a fascist, theocratic, autocratic ethnostate. And, yet, they still feel aggrieved and disenfranchised to the point that they think Reds states should leave the Union! It is a testament to what happens when you start taking your own bullshit at face value.
I keep telling the traditionalists that I know all they have to do is be patient and they’re going to get everything, and I mean EVERYTHING that they want politically and then some. But this doesn’t stop them from perceiving any and every slight as oppression.
MAGA Republicans, apparently, feel completely overwhelmed by the oppression of the “woke cancel culture mob” to the point that they are totally oblivious to how they are just a few short months from probably taking control of Congress and being well on their way to establishing a white, autocratic Christian ethno state in 2025 when a Republican — any Republican — is sworn in as POTUS.
It’s all very curious. It’s a testament to the power of Fox News and Right wing podcasts that the Right lives in some sort of la la land where they are the scrapy underdogs who have to fuck their guns to prevent the evil “woke cancel culture mob” from ruining their lives just for being conservative. They think this to the point that they totally and completely miss they are on the cusp of getting exactly what they want.
Around late 2024, early 2025, a least a million “libtards” are going to leave the United States, never to be seen again. Then the country begins to circle the drain and we grow more and more fascist. No need for Red states to leave the Union.
But for the fact that any National Divorce would mean a Second American Civil War, I would now say let’s do this — Blue States need to prepare seriously for secession. I never thought I would get this point, but here we are. MAGA Republicans are ascendant and their dream is my nightmare.
In the end, fascist MAGA Republicans are going to turn the United States into an autocracy, a Russia clone and maybe even a clone of Nazi Germany (if we’re really unlucky.) So, on paper, all things being equal, it’s time for Blue States to bounce, leave the Union and start their own nation where there is equal protection under the law.
And, yet, I don’t really want this. There is no practical way for Blue States to leave the Union without violence. What’s more, just because Blues left the Union with the idea of starting their own center-Left nation, doesn’t mean that ultimately their war aims wouldn’t change and we would endup with a massive battle to find who controls all of the current political territory of the United States.
What’s worse, WW3 would begin during any National Divorce / Second American Civil War — and there is always the risk that the DPRK might lob a few H-bombs our way simply out of spite.
So, we’re back to square one. Blues have to accept that the United States is going to turn into an autocracy in 2025 — baring something I really simply have no way of predicting. As such, I would suggest that if you’re a Blue that you get your affairs in order and begin to game out voting with your feet — leaving the country and never coming back.
At the moment, there is a dog that hasn’t barked when it comes to MAGA and that is Trump demanding a Constitutional Convention. It’s my impression that his “brain,” Steve Bannon is on board with the idea and, as such, it would make a lot of sense that at some point Trump is going to start ranting about the need for one.
I would suggest that the issue is now just a matter of timing.
Either Trump makes a Constitutional Convention the focal point of his 2024 campaign, or he waits until he’s in office to demand one for various idiotic reasons. But given how dark America’s future is, I could totally see one being called a lot sooner than even that — maybe even in the 2023 – 2024 timeframe. That’s definitely something that would juice the base.
The fact that Trump is a lazy idiot has spared us a lot of pain. If Trump was a “Great Man” of history, then he would now be an autocratic president for life. But Trump’s abstract thinking ability is so limited that he just can’t process something like the benefits to MAGA of calling a Constitutional Convention.
It may eventually come around to the idea, but if Trump was anything like Hitler, he would have already stolen the 2020 election and demanded MAGA “enabling acts” be enshrined in a new, MAGA-themed Constitution.
I see the term “constitutional republic” is trending again on Twitter so let’s talk about what that means in the context of the United States continuing to careen towards the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Being so absolute in your belief that the United States is a “constitutional republic” is a tell.
What you’re really saying is you’re tired of the constant hand wringing on the part of Twitter liberals about the imminent demise of America’s democracy to the point that you want to nullify the debate altogether. You generally have a series of talking points that have been fed to you by Right wing podcasts to the point that you don’t even listen to anyone who disagrees with you.
The idea that the United States can be both a constitutional republic AND a democracy at the same time simply does not enter your mind. You dismiss all the democratic traditions and norms that have developed around our constitutional republic over the years and focus on the least democratic elements of it in hopes that you can get your dream of a white autocratic Christian ethnostate.
First of all — fuck you, you autocratic peice of shit.
Second, all this talk on the part of Reds about the United States being a constitutional republic is dangerous because Blues still believe we’re a democracy and, as such, when the final Red power grab happens and they finally extinguish American democracy, there is a greater-than-zero sum possibility of a National Divorce with Blue states being the ones serving the papers. This will, in turn cause a civil war that probably will not only bomb the United States into oblivion but start WW3 along the way, too.
I don’t think that will happen — Blues just don’t have it in them. I think the United States is going to become an illiberal democracy as Reds lean into the idea that our government is a constitutional republic not a democracy to the point that we’re not even a republic anymore, but rather an autocracy.
And that will be that. Wealthy Blues who still believe in American democracy will flee the country en masse, voting with their feet. And for all the glee that Reds will have for finally winning the idiotic argument about constitutional republic versus democracy, there is going to come a moment at some point in the future when they’re going to regret it.
It’s the nature of autocracy to go to extremes. Anyway, good luck, I guess. And fuck MAGA.
Here’s how a National Divorce — a civil war — might play out, staring in late 2024, early 2025.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
The one thing that I can’t figure out is what Blues will do between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that they face the existential choice of bending a knee to fascist MAGA autocracy or they simply leave the Union at the state level like what happened with slave states in 1860 – 1861.
Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war, starting around late 2024, early 2025.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
We’re too far out to game out what will happen, but there are a number of different options. One is, nothing happens other than a lot of wealthy liberals flee the country — maybe 1 million or more — and they all start doing their “Resistance” podcasts in the south of France.
At the moment, that seems the most logical outcome. American democracy ends not with a bang, but with a lot of one way tickets out of the country by people who are wearing MeUndies.
So, it seems safe to say that if there is any secessionist crisis in late 2024, early 2025, it’s going to be because there is a popular groundswell of support all across Blue America for that to happen. And if that happens, then….what? I don’t know. The farthest I can get in this wargaming is maybe a summit of Blue governors is held somewhere….and then….what? Is that when they agree to hold the Secessionist Conventions?
Things quickly grow murky. If Blue States begin to leave the Union, what does the outgoing Biden Administration do? What happens with the U.S. Military? What do they do in the face of such a crisis? Do they simply follow the orders of our new MAGA fascist overlords to crush the secession or do they step in and overthrow civilian rule long enough for the two sides to cool it?
I just don’t know.
But what I do know is something’s gotta give. We can’t keep punting these existential problems down the road anymore. MAGA is so politically ascendant that, by definition, if they have the power to turn us into an autocracy, they will. The only question is, will we endup being like Hungary and Turkey or will we be closer to Russia? Or, even, God forbid, Nazi Germany?
Again, I just don’t know.
And I think this could be one of those things where we won’t know until it happens one way or another. Remember — the first signs of violence will come from coups and counter coups in swing states that really don’t know if they’re a Blue or Red state to the point of leaving or staying in the Union.
For instance, states like Virginia are really two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. And if Virginia was forced to pick a side, it would collapse, probably with there be a coup, then counter coup as each side tied to force the state to go one way or another. Virginia would definitely be a flash point in any National Divorce. We’re talking Yugoslavia levels of clusterfuck.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
One of the more sensitive issues in society today is LGBTQ rights. It’s so sensitive that it’s difficult to even address it without either people yelling at each other or someone getting “canceled” before it’s all over with.
And, yet, it’s definitely something that is tearing the country apart in its own way because the Blues have a very strict orthodoxy about the subject that really alienates people who might otherwise join forces with them to keep our fragile democracy alive.
The issue of LGBTQ rights — and the topsy-turvy world of center-Left expectations about gender — is something that Reds love, love, love to wallow in because it helps push people who might otherwise support democracy into their arms and, but extension, the arms of fascism.
It’s gotten to the point where my center-Right relatives have the notion that the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “turn everyone gay” at the VERY forefront of their mind. That’s all they want to talk about. It’s their go-to talking point, especially when they might be losing an argument about something else. And Traditionalist conservatives are so all-in with the anti-gay orthodoxy of Reds that they’ve completely bought into the notion that the “woke cancel culture mob” is “grooming” little kids whenever it’s not engaging in infanticide.
The whole thing is loopy and corrosive to the point that it’s like nations of the mind that Blues and Reds live in are totally different. And, soon enough, it could be that they live in two different political nations as well. Only time will tell. We may implode into a MAGA Republican fascist state instead, who knows at the moment.
The issue of gay rights is one of a number of hot button topics — abortion, global climate change and gun control to name a few others — that are now so totally loaded that’s its impossible to have any type of conversation about them with someone you disagree with. The two sides have very strict orthodoxies and that’s that. Neither side will compromise, neither side will budge or even listen to what the other has to say.
And it’s things like that which makes me think we’re careening towards a very dark future — one of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this up. The two sides are too far apart and our politics no longer function.
Either we become all Red (autocracy) or Blues tell Reds to fuck off and leave the Union on the state level. What the U.S. Military will do is very much up in the air and there is at least a chance that we may endup with a military junta for a while instead of the other two choices.
Anyway, get out of the country if you can. Things are dark and getting darker by the moment.
I have long mulled the idea that someone like Ivanka or Lara Trump might somehow find themselves as POTUS, only to be a figure head for their deranged, autocratic veep like Mike Pompeo or Josh Hawley. This would be par for the course for an autocracy because it would give the autocrat the ability to consolidate power and serve, in real terms, a minimum of around 16 years before they had to either become Speaker or change the Constitution to serve longer.
So I sat up and took notice when I learned that everyone’s deranged, power hungry MAGA idiot, Marjorie Taylor Greene, is growing in esteem in Trump’s eyes to the point that he’s even thinking of naming her his veep. This, of course, would put her in the driver’s seat to become POTUS.
I honestly don’t know enough about MTG to know if she would be nothing more of a figure head as she would be in the Velvet Fist scenario or if she has the wearwithal actually be an autocrat unto herself. It’s very curious. In one way, MTG is very Trump-like and would probably not be centered enough to consolidate power like a true autocrat, but at the same time, from what I can tell, she wants to be a power player and so she might be able to pull it off.
The idea of MTG being America’s first Very American Autocrat is loony, but I guess in it’s own way it’s better than having an autocrat named JOSH of all things. But there remains the issue of how politically blood thirsty the fight to be Trump’s autocratic successor is going to be when that moment comes. I just don’t know if MTG is up to that type of fight.
The Traditionalist conservatives I know love Trump because he’s a fighter. They feel “oppressed” because the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “groom” little kids and otherwise turn everyone gay.
They feel they risk having their life ruined — or “canceled” if they should happen to do or say something that doesn’t follow the “woke” media agenda. They think all their favorite stars are having their lives ruined by the “woke mob.”
They are aghast at the potency of the transgender movement — especially when children are involved — and the feel the “what are your pronouns” issue to be as alarming as it is ridiculous.
Throw in a heaping helping of negative polarization and you have a recipe for disaster in the guise of the United States turning into an autocratic white Christian ethostate pretty much the next time Republicans have it in their power to do so.
In short, the United States is fucked.
The center-Left is too divided, too wrapped up in quibbling about how many genders can dance on the head of a pin, to do anything preemptively about the dangers we face. And, really, at the moment, I just don’t see there being a National Divorce.
Blues will ultimately bend a knee to fascism and those who have the means will vote with their feet by leaving the country. That, at the moment, seems to be our immutable fate. The only reason why I don’t absolutely believe this is I can’t predict the future and, as such, we might either have a civil war or some sort of military junta.
And, yet, the fix is in for Something Bad to happen. We’re past the event horizon for “the Fourth Turning” if you want to invoke that astrology for dudes brand.
In the end, I think we’re just going to shrug and give up our American democratic birthright because we don’t realize the true implications of becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy. Good luck.
What bothers me the most about the concept of the “woke cancel culture mob” “canceling” someone is I honestly don’t really know what being “woke” is and I don’t know what it means, in real terms, to be “canceled.”
I hate the idea that two abstract concepts are at the forefront of the minds of Traditionalists, who are bedrock of any traditional, stable democracy. When you lose Traditionalists, you endup with Good Germans who keep their head down in a fascist autocratic state.
Of course, some of the abstract nature of being “woke” and the power of being “canceled” is by design. The Fox News – Right wing podcast axis goes out of its way to bludgeon Traditionalists with these two concepts in such a way that they live in abject fear of having their lives ruined simply because they’re conservative.
If we all know what “woke” and “canceled” meant, if we could agree on a meaning, then our fears wouldn’t be abstract and, as such, not nearly as scary. But it serves the purposes of the fucking autocratic fascist MAGA Republicans to keep these terms abstract, so, lulz.
Just as MAGA Republicans get frustrated over people like me saying they’re a “threat to democracy” to the point that they don’t believe in democracy anymore, I’m so angry over the rise of fascist MAGA Republican autocracy that I’m really beginning to find the idea — on paper — of a National Divorce rather appealing.
But for the whole bombing ourselves into the Stone Age element of it all – sorting out what constitutes a Blue or Red state alone will be very, very violent — I would be all for it.
Wait, what?
Give me a prosperous, secular Blue Union anyday over an inward looking autocratic fascist MAGA State that was very undemocratic in nature.
I don’t think it will come to that, however. The center-Left just doesn’t have it in them. In the end, wealthy liberals will flee the country — vote with their feet –and get all their My Undies that they hear advertised on Crooked Media podcasts shipped to them in the south of France.
The more I think about it, the more I believe this Union can’t be saved. I hate conflict, hate violence and consider myself a man of peace, a man of ideas. And, yet, I grow more and more alarmed as a center-Left person about the raise of autocratic MAGA Republican fascism in the United States.
So, on paper, there is a very strong case for Blues to serve Reds papers on a National Divorce at some point in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that either Reds are going to steal that election or they’ve won it fair and square and their incoming agenda is simply too radical for Blues to remain in the Union.
But all of this is on paper. I would far rather at least try to figure out some way to punt the ascendant nature of autocratic MAGA fascism down the road a few more election cycles. Yet, I fear late 2024, early 2025 is going to be it — the Fourth Turning, if you’re into that particular astrology for dudes bullshit.
It just seems — on paper, that if Reds finally catch the car, that maybe Blue States should collectively agree to bounce. If Reds want to establish a white Christian ethnostate so bad, then have at it — but without the tax base associated with Blue States.
We may all be antifa one day.
There are so very many problems with this idea.
I just can’t imagine a scenario where Reds would let Blues leave the Union without a Second American Civil War. What’s more, if the United States buckles, then the post-WW2 liberal order will, too, and WW3 will break out. There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you could think up at this point, including the DPRK throwing a few H-bombs towards the United States while we were preoccupied with bombing ourselves into the Stone Age.
But something’s gotta give. America is going to reach a point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that the jig is up. We are either going to be all-Red (autocracy) or split into two nations that hate each other. Or, I supposed, some sort of murky middle ground could occur whereby the U.S. Military steps in and keeps the country together until, maybe, passions subside a little bit.
All of this is still too far out, I can’t game out any scenarios that make much sense at the moment. The first big milestone will be the 2022 elections and when Trump announces for 2024. Those two events will definitely lurch us closer — one way or another — towards the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025.
But I’m always wrong. Maybe somehow we’ll sort things out and my dark, dystopian fears of autocracy, civil war or military junta will just be hysterical. And, yet, to be a Republican in good standing at the moment means to be an autocratic fascist, so lulz.
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