Tag: Second American Civil War

America As Failed State


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The America I know and love will end very soon, probably in the winter of 2024 after the presidential election. Either we elect an autocrat who successfully strangles our zombie liberal democracy or he bungles that transition and there’s a civil war.

Now, as I’ve written before there are plenty of “known unknowns” that might delay this choice of autocracy or civil war, but there’s no avoiding the choice at some point. There are plenty of reasons why this is, but the chief reason is the rot at the core of the American political system.

Now that Republicans have become a old fashion fascist party, I just don’t see there being any way for us to escape our doom. The only reason why we escaped our fate in 2020 was Donald Trump was too old, too lazy and too unfocused to get the job done. He flirted with the necessary tactics to destroy America, but in the end he choked.

Really, at this point, I would suggest that only a major regional war with, say North Korea — started at just the right moment in the 2024 presidential cycle — would be enough to punt our impending existential crisis down the road one more presidential cycle. Or, if Elon Musk so disrupted the trucking industry that the far Left and the far Right fused together in opposition to job-killing technology.

Otherwise, we’re fucked by no later than late 2024.

In its own tragic way, I would suggest that in a way a second civil war might at least give us some opportunity for redemption like the first Civil War. Though it would be such a horrific tragedy that such a redemption would only happen because both sides would have suffered equally enough that they would be willing to renew the American Covenant.

If we become an autocracy, then, well, there is no hope. Our new autocratic Republican ruling class will simply keep cutting taxes and social benefits, continue to make it harder for women to have sexual agency and continue to keep minorities under the jackboot of systemic racism. In the end, America and Russia will be politically identical and I get pushed out of a window by ICE agents for being too much a of loudmouth.

‘The Fourth Turning’ Predicts A Major Political Crisis ‘Before 2025’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The spooky thing about the book The Fourth Turning is there is a specific prediction that aligns perfectly with my own thoughts on America’s fate — we’re going to have a severe political crisis of some sort in late 2024 after the presidential election.

Or, put another way, we will have a severe political crisis (second civil war) if the would-be autocrat that Republicans nominate isn’t able to cleanly steal the election and turn us into an autocracy that lasts at least 50 or more years. That specific prediction is enough for me to think the guys involved know what they’re talking about.

One key take away from the big so far right now is the cycle of human history is somewhere between 80 to 130 years. I’ve been toying with a similar idea — that we’ve reached an era where the last people to remember WW2 are dying off and, as such, the idea of the United States as the “essential nation” is being lost as the primary driver of American foreign policy.

As such, we see the rise of MAGA and the idea of Fortress America. If you twin that with the idea that the choice in 2024 is between civil war or autocracy, then The Fourth Turning‘s prediction that “before 2025” all hell is going to break loose jibes up pretty well with that.

We have to begin to prepare for a cataclysmic break with the past in the winter of 2024-2025. If we become an autocracy that pulls all out all our troops from around the world, then I could see WW3 happening at any point after 2025. For me, the issue is the next autocrat is probably going to be a lot less incompetent than Trump and, well, should we not have a civil war, our decent into autocracy will be swift and breathtaking.

All my dystopian hellscape nightmares that I imagined for the Trump Era will just happen four years later.

In 2024, The Choice Is A Second American Civil War Or Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seem as thought we’re careening towards “the fourth turning” as explicated in the book The Fourth Turning. The key thing for me is Trump was such a weird person — and so bad at being president — that what should have happened in 2020 didn’t happen.

So, it’s going to happen in 2024.

And, even then, it hasn’t happened yet.

There are any number of different things that could happen that could speed up or slow down the fucked up things happening in America which make either a second American civil war or a slide into autocracy — or both — inevitable by 2024.

But the key take away from both my personal predictions and those found in The Fourth Turning is we’re on the cusp of unpreceded instability both at home and abroad in the coming years. And when it happens, it’s likely to be dramatic and awe-inspiring. The whole world that we’ve taken for granted for the last 80-odd years is going to go tits up at an astonishing speed.

I say this specifically because the Republican Party is now fascist in the old-school meaning of the word. They are filled with rage and it’s only a matter of time before the Proud Boys morph into something a lot closer to the Nazi SS than we’re willing to admit to ourselves. It’s very possible that 2024’s election will be marred by such political violence that that, by definition, causes it not to be free and fair.

We may look back at 2020 as the last free and fair election in our nation’s history.

The other option is we descend into a second American civil war and we bomb — nuke? — the hell out of each other until we finally decide if America is going to remain a liberal democracy or go full throated fascist. The ultimate outcome of such a war is something I just can’t predict four years away from it.

I have some very strong opinions on how the Blue States could win such a civil war, but no one listens to me and, lulz, I’m a nobody and probably always will be. “Normal” people just see me as a deranged Internet crank who is “both stupid and oblivious.”

But anyway. Maybe the novel I’m working on will be a success enough that I can afford to move to, I don’t know, Perth or something.

Psychohistory, My Personal Dystopian Predictions For America & The Book ‘The Fourth Turning’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Steve Bannon’s favorite book is The Fourth Turning, so some time ago I bought it to figure out if I could understand what made that motherfucker tick.

What I’ve read of it so far is quite good and — here’s the spooky thing — all the ranting I’ve been doing of late about how we’re fucked in about 2024-2025 is also found in The Fourth Turning. In fact, I keep reading the book and getting chills at how accurate I believe their predictions are relative to what I’ve come to assume to be true about our fate.

They aren’t perfect — the book was written in the 1990s — so they don’t get what’s going on right now perfectly right. I think the thing that happened that they could have have predicted is the election of a black president in 2008. They said that things would get fucked up about 2005. So I guess they weren’t too far off. But I’m a big believer in my own form of “psychohistory” in the sense that I think about macro trends a lot and it’s just that Obama was kind of a Great Man who sped up some problems in the country because his election scared the shit out of racists.

So here we are.

When the United States either buckles into civil war or becomes an autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia it’s not going to be pretty. Either way, the entire world order will grow so destabilized that there might be a number of limited nuclear exchanges. If the United States isn’t there to keep India and Pakistan from blowing themselves up, for instance, that’s maybe 300 million dead right there (at least.) Then there’s China and Taiwan. The list goes on.

And, right now at least, our decent into either civil war or autocracy seems rather implacable. There’s nothing we can do to stop it. We can delay it, like we did in 2020 because of the pandemic and Trump being a complete fucking lazy idiot, but we can’t stop it. What The Fourth Turning does it give people like me some sort of underlining historical explanation for why we think what we think.

But let me be clear — there’s no reveled truth. No fate but what we make, as they say. Yet there are just too many things that are coming to a head for, essentially, WW3 not to happen in about four years. Too many Americans are tired of Empire and want to “bring the boys home” so we can become Fortress America and become a white Christian ethno state.

As I said, the issue is, how peaceful is our transition from liberal democracy into an autocracy? That’s pretty much the crux of our fate at this point from a prediction standpoint. There are specific things I simply can’t game out at this point. A lot will be decided which of the half dozen would-be autocrats wins the Republican nomination in 2024 and how popular they are with people who didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 or 2016.

I have a feeling the next autocrat is going to be a lot smoother and the siren call of autocracy will be far to strong in the end. I keep encountering too many people who are obviously autocrat-friendly who didn’t support Trump personally but obviously want some sort of autocratic rule.

In the end, of course, I’ll just be a minority of one if need be. I will never support any fucking autocracy. That’s never going to change, regardless of the year.

Why We’re Going To Have A Second Civil War (Or Turn Into An Autocracy) In 2024-2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re doomed. Because of a number of very specific situations — the pandemic and Trump being a total ding-dong — the United States dodged a catastrophe in 2020. We won’t be as lucky in 2024. There is going to be severe political instability in the winter of 2024-2025. And either there’s a rolling political violence across the country that descends into something akin to a second civil war or we finally fall into Republican minority rule for the next 50 years or more. Here’s why.

FOX Fired Its Election Night State Caller
One of the subtle things that saved our asses was FOX News Election Desk called Arizona. That was a tipping point for the night. This will not happen in 2024. If Trump — or someone like Trump — is anywhere near winning on Election Night the crucial FOX News is going to be on the side of the bad guys, no questions asked. So it could be possible that the Right will never accept a Democrat winning, no matter what. So, either the 2024 election is stolen and we become an autocracy, or the country implodes.

The Macro Problems of the Last 40 Years Are Still There
The deep seated rot within the bowels of the American political system are still there. Republicans are hell bent on turning the United States into a white ethno state where white Christians tell everyone else what to do because they have no policies and all their political views are based on fear. So, in a sense, if it’s not 2024, it will be 2028 and so on. There is going to be a point when these different macro trends are going to come to a head one way or another. Either it will be a civil war or our zombie liberal democracy will finally just be dead.

The Republican Party Is A Fascist Party
Liberal democracy is simply a means to an end for the modern Republican Party. They see it as either a way to take power or keep power. Any form of compromise is weakness. A huge chunk of the Republican Party has slipped directly into such thuggishness that they’re willing to embrace the traditional fascist playbook to achieve their ends. So, once they take over Congress in 2022, that will be the setup a very brazen theft of the 2024 election one way or another. And, really, the issue is do the fascist Republicans bungle the strangling of our zombie liberal democracy and start a civil war or do they get away with it clean?

Known Unknowns
There are a number of things that may come out of the blue to change things so much in the next four years that what is obvious — that on a macro level the United States is fucked — doesn’t happen.

Elon Musk
Four years is a long time. It’s at least possible that on the technological front someone like Elon Musk might pull a rabbit out of a hat that throws everything up in the air. There are 3 million high paying blue collar jobs at risk should Musk perfect the automated semis he’s working on. It’s at least possible in the 2024 presidential cycle that something will happen whereby the far Right and the far Left merge into a new party that is opposed to “soft singularity” technology like automation. But that would be a lot more sooner than I would expect.

North Korea
This is an existential threat to the United States that if it flares up in the next four years could make a lot what I’m worried about very moot. If we have a major regional war the scares the shit out of us, then it’s possible the Biden – Harris Administration will quite easily win a second term.

The Inevitable
Neither Biden nor Trump is immortal and it’s at least possible that one — or both of them — may pull a Justice Scalia on us. If it’s Trump, then that opens up the flood gates for a number of young would-be autocrats to do a lot of shit that Trump wanted to do but was too big an idiot to pull off. If it’s, God forbit, Biden, then it’s possible a President Harris might have the spunk necessary to fight the macro forces that I think have us doomed at the moment.


In 2024, The United States Either Becomes An Autocracy Or Has A Second Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The first thing we have to keep an eye on is someone being shot on the floor of the House. This kind of shit happened all the time between 1830 and 1860 (according to The Field of Blood, a book I’m reading) and it seems inevitable it will happen between now and the winter of 2024.

Having said that, we are so fucked. So very very fucked.

The Republican Party, by definition, sees any policy or legislation on the part of Democrats as illegitimate. Unless, of course, they can claim credit for it so they can win votes and strangle our liberal democracy once and for all.

Anyway, the point is, when the next presidential election cycle rolls around, I just don’t see the American political system being able to withstand its passions. Either we, at last, become an autocracy or there’s a civil war. There are no other options.

We simply don’t have the political strength to punt this particular problem down the road another four years, much less the 20 or 30 years necessary so the browning of America can take place and we get over the hump.

All I can say is, at least my novel will be timely again by the time I try to sell it. And if I do somehow sell it, post-production will push it right into the sweet spot of all my ranting against extremism being very timely.

Cancel Culture, Nostalgia Politics and Breakfast At Tiffany’s


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why the fucking dickhead cocksuckers of FOX News may soon be babbling about the “canceling” of Breakfast At Tiffany’s is the movie pretty much is what “make America great again” means — a return to an era when it costs a white man $50 in New York City for a woman to go to the powder room.

Excuse the low-tech nature of my dystopian hellscape scenario.

The move is extremely white other than Mickey Rooney’s racist neighbor character. So old people and racist, misogynistic idiots who want to fuck their guns can wrap themselves around the movie and say we have to destroy America because we can’t risk the movie being “cancelled.”

Let me be clear — I love Breakfast At Tiffany’s, but I doubt Truman Capote would be all that thrilled for it to be thrown into the maw of the culture wars by fucking cocksuckers who watch FOX News. I mean, what fucking kind of fucking cocksucker watches FOX News? Idiots!

Anyway, I only rant like this because I know we’re just four years away from either a civil war or a final slide into autocracy. It’s cathartic to rant in public, hoping I might get my point across to some MAGA Qanon dipshit who stumbles across this site at the mere mention of “Cancel culture” in the headline.

I still think is tragically amusing that in four years the United States is probably going to finally buckle into anarchy, even though if fucking idiot MAGA people would simply play by the rules of a liberal democracy they could everything they wanted.

But, not, they want to hurt people. Idiots.

Trump & The Dog That Didn’t Bite


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s pathetic how for four years Trump politically terrorized the United States and, now…nothing. For over four years, we’ve been promised that Trump would be “brought down” by this or that criminal investigation and, yet, for the time being it definitely looks as though he’s going to get away with it all.

This ties in to what I long believed — we simply don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump at all for any reasons.

So, for all of you who want some sort of direct comparison between Trump and Hitler, I think that’s it — the January 6th Insurrection definitely has a Beerhall Putsch vibe to it in retrospect. But, let me be clear — history may not repeat but it does rhyme.

As such, it could be any number of would-be autocrats who aren’t Trump who get to play the role of Hitler in this analogy. But let me be clear — the United States’ political system is rotten to its core. The Republican Party is now an American fascist party.

No later than 2024-2025 — barring something huge like aliens or Jesus coming back — will be when either have a civil war or slip into autocracy at the hands of this or that fascist Republican becoming president one way or another.

Any civil war we have will simply be because Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton or…you name it…bungles the transition into autocracy. Once we become an autocracy, our autocrat will purge the media, bring home the troops, bring about a flat tax, pick your shitty policy.

But we have about four years. A lot can happen between now and then. I would, however, recommend you get the fuck out of the county between now and then.

You Fuckers Are Obsessed With A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost all my Website’s traffic now comes from people interested in my dystopian civil war or autocracy scenarios. All I can say is — you have good taste. No, seriously, we as a nation really need to start talking about how real a possibility this is.

The next thing to happen is someone is probably going to get shot on the floor of Congress. It will call for a lots of calls for “thought and prayers” but in the end, nothing will change.

We’re careening towards Americans killing Americans in some pretty massive numbers if you throw in the very real possibility of WMD being stolen and used. The crazy thing to me, still, is if MAGA fucktards would just stay within the bounds of politics, they could get everything — and I mean everything — they wanted. America becomes an autocracy managed by a powerful minority and that will be that.

But, no, fucking cocksucker MAGA-GQP absolutely have to start murdering people to see their vision of American become reality. It’s very sad, but, again, I think if you can, you need to leave the country at some point within the next four years. Things are going to get nasty, nasty, nasty.

And it’s going to happen like a thunderclap.

At some point in late 2024, early 2025, the United States will implode or change dramatically. Either we’re going to have a civil war that lasts until we’ve zapped ourselves into absolute oblivion, or we’re becoming a MAGA autocracy. I honestly don’t see any other options at this point.

We’re doomed. We’re all fucking doomed.

Would Be Autocrat Hot-Take: Mike Pompeo


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Mike Pompeo is such a piece of shit. He’s a big old turd who thinks he can bring about the return of Jesus H. Christ by, I don’t know, using Trump as the Anti-Christ of or something? And, given what a fucking cocksucker he is, if the FBI looks at this post I want them to know that that I REALLY THINK MIKE POMPEO IS PEICE OF SHIT.

He’s so fucking annoying because the moment he becomes president, he’s coming after people like me. I’m just the kind of loudmouth that he’s going to round up and get ICE to shoot in the back of the head. Ugh. At least I have four years to get out of the country, I guess.

There’s something so grating on my nerves about Pompeo. He talks about “swagger” then turns around and sucks up to any foreign leader who helps him politically in his scorched earth desire to become president and bring back Jesus H. Fucking Christ.

I know there’s nothing I can do in real terms, though. Pompeo is one a few would-be autocrats who could probably strangle our liberal democracy in one fell swoop without bungling the transition so we end up having a civil war.

But let me be clear — this is just me pointing out a coming car accident. There’s nothing I can do about any of this. I just need to vent about how the country I love is going to go from a liberal democracy to Pompeolandia within about five years.

Fuck Mike Pompeo. Ugh!