Tag: The Fourth Turning

I Just Wish MAGA Republicans Would Be Honest

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear that in late 2024, early 2025, America will find itself at a crossroads. While I suppose it’s possible that we may somehow manage to find a “third way’ whereby we punt our problems down the road another four years, I will be flabbergasted if that actually happens.

What is more likely to happen is we slide into a MAGA themed autocracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) It is clear that the next Republican president the United States has — no matter who it might be — is going to be a fucking fascist.

The MAGA has gone septic within the Republican Party to the point that the moment Republicans control the presidency again, that’s it — we’re going to have to make a decision one way or another as to what is going to happen to America. Are we going to become a white Christian ethno state or not? Are we going to have a complete and total ban on not just abortion, but any form of birth control or not? That’s just the beginning of a litany of extreme policies that are now MAGA Republican orthodoxy.

What will be interesting to see is if our new MAGA autocrat fucks with freedom of speech or if he / she is smart enough to wait a few years for the MAGA consolidation to take effect to move on something so important to Americans. Trump, despite everything, is still too stupid and lazy to actually implement a lot of his fascist dreams.

So, it’s probably going to be his immediate Republican successor who gets to play Augustus Caesar.

I do think, however, that Trump’s incoming agenda during his second term will be so radical that there will be a lot of talk within Blue ranks about some sort of “Resistance Revolution.” But Blues have a far different collective temperament than Reds and I think, in the end, about 1 million smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will leave the country, leaving us Poors to fend for ourselves.

Enjoy this peace before the storm, is all I gotta say. Late 2024, early 2025 is going to be fucking lit.

The Second American Republic is Collapsing

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I look back upon American history and it seems to me we live in the Second American Republic. It was founded upon the death of Lincoln in 1865. But now, we come to another moment in time when either we slide into the ditch of autocracy or find some sort of rebirth.

And it could definitely go either way at the moment.

The key issue, that people too often ignore, is even if we defeat Trump in the general election, there is a good chance that he will unto himself, will spark a civil war. Trump has a vested interest in a civil war because he will see it being his get out of jail card.

That’s the thing that people continue to assume that if they can just defeat Trump that somehow magically everything will be fixed. I’m really nervous that we might somehow defeat Trump, only to have to go through a secession crisis.

So, in general, 2024 is going to be a shit show.

I can’t predict the future, so I suppose it’s possible that we might find some magical, mystery “third way” that will allow us to punt our problems down the road another four years.

But I really find myself worried.

What I Mean By ‘Managing Our Expectations’ in 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Every once in a while, I run into some earnest liberal on Twitter who gets upset when I drolly say that we need to “manage our expectations” for 2024. They get really excited and say that only “WORK” will defeat MAGA.

And, in general, I agree with this sentiment.

But what I mean by “manage our expectations” is we have to accept that when it comes to Trump becoming POTUS again no amount of WORK on an individual basis means jackshit. Yeah, it makes you feel better, but the die is cast — it’s autocracy or civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues) starting in late 2024, early 2025.

We have to start figuring out what we’re going to do when the time comes. Even if all your WORK manages to single-handedly stop Trump from winning in 2024, there is a pretty good change that that, unto itself, could spark Trump to start a civil war.

Then what are you going to do?

That’s what I mean by the era of hope is over and the era of preperation has begun. We all need to do a gut check. We all need to figure out if we’re going to stay and fight or leave the country if necessary. America right now has very late Roman Republic vibes.

America is at the crossroads and either we establish a Third Republic from the ashes of the Second, or we just give up and turn into a Russian-style autocracy. At the moment, I still don’t know which path we’re going to take.

But what I do know is everyone has to pick a side — or a side will be chosen for you.

Right Wing ‘Truthiness’ About Abortion Rights & The Prospect of Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re now in an era where the America Right is so untethered from reality that not just reality but any sense of propriety that they are willing to say fucking anything in furtherance of their bonkers cause. The most recent example of this is Newt Gingrich saying that abortion rights advocates want to murder infants.

Suggesting such a thing is ridiculous in the extreme, and, yet, here we are. They keep blathering on about such something that simply is not true because it “feels true” to them. The Right is so consumed with their hatred of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to believe anything, say anything because it “feels” true.

This is very similar to the Christian persecution porn that occasionally pops up when some Christian claims they were accosted for praying in public. Even though this never fucking happens, the Christians in my life act like they “feel” like it could be true.

This is very disturbing for a number of reasons. It seems to me that it’s a short jaunt from proposing that liberals want to murder infants to accepting the Qanon conspiracies surrounding Hollywood stars.

Such bullshit from people like Gingrich is part of a broader macro trend on the part of the American Right to dehumanize the center-Left to the point that when the time comes, some pretty dark things may happen. It definitely seems within reason that either we slip peacefully into MAGA autocracy when Trump wins in 2024 and ICE starts murdering people like me or Trump loses and we have a National Divorce and civil war.

Or, put another way, a lot of macro trends look like they’re coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025, one way or another. We can’t keep punting all our problems down the road. We’ve reached the “put up or shut up” stage for both sides of the political equation.

Either Trump wins and Blues have to figure out if they’re going to do anything about it, or Trump loses and Reds have to figure out if they’re prepared to continue to stay in America since they don’t believe they can get a “fair shake” anymore.

But I am wrong all the time. I suppose it’s a least possible that somehow, someway we will, in fact, do a Third Way like we did in 2020. I have my doubts about that possibility, but I can’t predict the future.

Growing Concern About The Dog That Hasn’t Bitten yet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems clear to me that we have to take seriously the prospect of some sort of significant political event happening because of the 2024 presidential election. Whatever it is that happens could be the biggest domestic event in American history since 1860.

The Right is chomping at the bit to have some sort of excuse for political violence, while the Left is so busy fighting over pronouns as to be waiting for a sucker punch.

The key thing I’m worried about for the more immediate future is the prospect of severe political violence that would indicate that far worst things are in store for late 2024, early 2025. In fact, I would go so far as to say it has been, in general terms, eerily quiet on that front.

Not that I want any such thing to happen, but the Right can only freak the fuck out in rather absurd ways for only so long before some idiot decides to act on it. It’s possible that the convictions associated with the January 6 insurrection have given a lot of fascists pause for thought.

Maybe that’s what’s going on?

But I really worry that soon enough that will change and we may have some sort of co-ordinated political violence that would definitely make it clear that the country is in for serious trouble in late 2024, early 2025. Or not. Maybe I’m really over thinking things and, thankfully, we’ll somehow manage to muddle through like we have so many times in the past.

I dunno. I really don’t. I’m still worried.

Yet Another Attempt To Understand What The Fuck ‘Woke’ Means

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue with the term “woke” is it is so loaded now — and so defined by people who use it for whatever they need it to mean — that it’s really hard to pin down an exact meaning. In general, relative to my point of view, to be “woke” means you are a cultural Leftist who has such a ridged orthodoxy on certain issues that you would rather the United States become a MAGA fascist state than give centrists some wiggle room.

But that’s just me. I suppose in the minds of ambitious Republican politicians, “woke” is a nebulous catch-all of far Left agendas that scare your voters. But because being against the “woke cancel culture mob” polls well, you slather the term over anything — and I mean ANYTHING — that it in anyway seems “liberal.”

Because the term “liberal” has become so hated, so loaded within Republican ranks that you can’t use it at all for any reason. You can’t even use it to describe what the United States is — a liberal democracy.

There is no denying that younger generations have different social expectations that can leave old coots like me at a loss. And, yet, at least I’m willing to admit and acknowledge that just because I don’t understand what the youngins think, doesn’t mean it’s automatically wrong.

But the obsession with this or that thing being “woke” in the minds of MAGA Republicans is part of a broader macro problem — the political center no longer exists in the United States and the two sides are receding from each other at an astonishing rate.

Neither side understands the other and the MAGA Right seems determined to either establish a fascist state in the United States or force the issue of a National Divorce.

In the end, once things grow far more existential in nature, the very notion of this or that thing being “woke” will seem rather quaint.

A Hot Take On Trump’s Mugshot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Soon enough, one won’t be able to figure out the politics of someone wearing a shirt with Trump’s mugshot on it. Either you’re wearing it in support of Trump, or you’re wearing it ironically to remind people of its existence.

But Trump’s mugshot is yet another indication of how we’re rushing towards Something Bad in late 2024, early 2025 because it reminds us of how far apart the two sides are.

The key issue is, of course, who wins the 2024 election.

If Trump wins the 2024 election — as I believe he will — then, lulz, people like me will be so busy worrying about avoiding being sent to a weaponized ICE camp that we won’t really have much time to think about anything else. But if Trump somehow manages to lose — which I find farfetched — then there is a very real possibility of a civil war.

A lot of all of this rests on what the reaction of state Republican Parties. If Trump loses and begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison, do they listen to him? Are we really so divided that that is even a possibility? The Right sure would like to have us think that is a possibility, but I dunno.

The idea that the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world would implode over the fate of a ding-dong like Trump is a bit much. And, yet, here we are. Even during the recent Republican primary debate the notion of a “cold civil war” got slipped in a few times because it was a way to stroke the base.

But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once and we at least SEEM to be in the “gradually” part of that equation. The Right is beginning to believe that they can’t get a fair shake politically for their fascist Nazi views and because of the deep echo of the First Civil War in the minds of a lt of white Southerners, well, there you go.

The whole situation is fucked up. There are no easy answers. And for the time being, we just have to wait and see. Though, I have to say, whenever I find myself looking at content from the MAGA echo chamber, I’m not exactly encouraged that this Union can be saved if Trump loses in 2024.

All Things Being Equal, America Is Going To Have A Civil War If Trump Loses in 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me make one thing clear — I just don’t think Trump is going to lose in 2024. There are macro trends afoot that are going to make it damn near impossible to prevent Trump’s return in 2025.

As such, we need to begin to prepare for the fascist shit-show that will result starting in 2025. The people who would do something about our transition into a Russian-style autocracy — smug, wealthy Twitter liberals — will simply level the country en masse rather than risk their “lives and scared honors” do anything about the final destruction of American democracy.

But, just for “fun” let’s imagine what might happen if Trump manages to lose in 2024.

It definitely seems that Trump would have a vested interest in demanding a “National Divorce” if he lost in 2024. He doesn’t want to go to prison and he’s so stupid that he might begin to rant about the need for a “National Divorce” without realizing that Red States across the country would actually begin to take him up on the issue.

And it’s not going to be some sort of “MAGA revolution” where good olde boys run around shooting all the liberals they can find with their AR-15. It would be National Divorce done at a state level just like the first civil war. Because a lot of America is “purple” on the ground, there would be a massive amount of domestic political refugees as people began to vote with their feet when it became clear that you have to live in a state that fits your personal political views.

The Red States will begin to call up secessionist conventions and away we go. How all that would play out, I just don’t know. It really could go either way for a number of reasons. I do know not only would a lot of people die in the United States for no reason, but WW3 would probably happen as well once it became clear that the United States was too busy bombing itself to worry about keeping the global peace.

But all of that is rank speculation. It could be I’m way overthinking things. I could be that, lulz, we’ll somehow, magically, manage to punt our problems down the road another four years.

And, yet, I’m worried. I’m really worried.

Crunch Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear that I have to stop drifting towards my goal of being a published author. I have to start setting cold, hard metrics that I have to meet on a regular basis. And it’s not just writing that would be involved — I have a small library of books in my To Be Read pile (I’m not joking).

I continue — for the time being — to be in something of an ideal situation when it comes to writing a novel and so I need to show how grateful I am by actually working on it in a more focused, structured manner. I can’t just daydream all the time and expect to be querying within a year.

While I know I need to do this, in practice it’s very, very difficult. I just want to sit around and daydream all the time while actually doing any work on the novel(s) in short bursts every once in a while.

I need structure. I have a second novel gamed out now and if I’m going to have to creative tracks, I can’t continue to drift.

Of course, the great irony of all of this that it’s possible I could do all this hard work and then, lulz, just as I’m querying seriously the entire world goes tits up because fucking Trump single-handedly starts a civil war /revolution.

Ugh. Fucking ugh.

But you have to have hope, I suppose. I can’t just stop everything and wait around to see if The Fourth Turning happens in late 2024, early 2025.

Let’s rock.

Trump’s New World Order: The End of NATO

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With it growing more and more clear that malignant ding-dong Trump is probably going to win re-election in 2024, we have to start taking seriously the consequences of that particular political tragedy.

The most obvious foreign policy clusterfuck that will happen in a Trump second term is the end of NATO. What’s more, Trump will probably do everything in his power to hand over the entirety of Ukraine to the Russians. Given how bonkers and enamored Trump is with Russian-style autocracy, not even a complete rearrangement of the existing post-WW2 world order is out of the question.

And, what’s more, Trump could pull out our 28,000 man “tripwire” in South Korea as all of this is going on.

Now, it is difficult to comprehend exactly how the world’s nations would react to such momentus foreign policy moves on the part of King Ding-Dong I. But such an event would create not just chaos, but something of a power vacuum that would probably be filled by China.

And, in all honesty, I have to admit that in the back of my mind the idea that all the smug Twitter liberals might stop their massive exodus from the states if it was clear that Trump was going to remake not just America, but the world, in his deranged image.

Again, let me be clear — I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns, I hate violence and I’m a man of ideas and peace. Besides, I’m too old to make much of a difference to anything — or anyone — no matter how bad things might get. I suppose some overzealous ICE agent might murder me because I refuse to shut up about what a fucking cocksucker Trump is, but, lulz, other than that, no.

But Trump really gets as bad as we all fear, there is a least a small chance that he may spark something akin to a revolution on the part of Blues. There is always the chance it will fail and MAGA will only consolidate power in its aftermath, but I think we aren’t giving enough credience to the idea that there is a small chance that it won’t be Reds who freak out and take to the streets, but Blues.

I still don’t think that’s possible. Trump is going to win a second term and we will slide peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy. At least 1 million smug wealthy Blues will leave the country starting Election Day and that will be that. Soon enough, the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and I’ll be rounded up.

Wish me luck.