I believe 2023 is going to suck politically. It’s going to suck so bad that we’re going to look back upon 2022 like we now do the year 2017. In 2017, we were all so wrapped up in the legacy of post-Watergate Washington scandals that we assumed Mueller would fix all our Trumplandia problems and we could have some sort of magical Obama third term.
In other words — I believe Biden will probably be impeached a few times. I believe that any accountability that Trump is held to will only make him stronger. I believe that, in the end, Trump is either going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy (at least) or we’re going to have a civil war that starts between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
I believe all this because the macro trends are just not in our favor. We’re an empire in decline and the tectonic forces at work are probably going to force Blues to make an existential choice of bending a knee to autocracy or leaving the Union.
I don’t really want a National Divorce, but on an abstract basis, it definitely does make a lot of sense. I say this as someone who loves America and am quite content to keep the country together like it is, thank you very much. But if the choice is between the Fourth Reich and Blue States attempting to leave the Union, well, then, things start to get a bit more complicated, now don’t they.
It just seems to me that we’re headed towards a very, very, very dark future, it’s just the specifics haven’t been worked out yet. I’m of the opinion that at the moment we’re probably going to turn into the Fourth Reich, America will leave NATO and WW3 will happen as a result. In the end, MAGA will be directly responsible for just as many people as those that died in WW2.
The fact that antisemitism is going mainstream within MAGA ranks in broad daylight is alarming to say the least. The same dynamic that allowed Trump to come perilously close to destroying American democracy is now at play with the rise of antisemitic MAGA.
Everyone with the actual power to end it is too big a coward to do anything about it. Or they’re silent and hope it all just goes away. But barring something I can’t predict, it’s not going away. I’m not Jewish, but just like how Roe v. Wade was a firebreak for reproductive rights, the taboo against accepting antisemitism into the mainstream without consequences is firebreak against kooks like me getting caught up in the same dragnet that would get Jewish people if things really got that bad.
As such, I have an existential self-interest in making sure antisemitism stays in the shadows where it belongs.
But it definitely seems like we may have crossed the Rubicon. Things have suddenly begun to get dark and growing darker. All of this is happening in the very curious context of Trump having a Jewish daughter and children. How ding-dong squares that particular circle is something I struggle with a lot.
And I would go so far as to say keep an eye on the status of Javanka. If MAGA turns on them in any big way, oh boy. Things really are dark. What is happening in American politics at the moment is very, very surreal.
But I suppose the case could be made that form follows function. If you country has a fascism problem, it’s inevitable that you’re going to have a antisemitism problem, too.
And, like I said, this is all happening in the context of no one being willing to do anything about it because of one person — Donald Trump.
This is a very delicate thing to broach, but as antisemitism goes mainstream within MAGA ranks, we need to start to talk about the political fate of Jewish conservatives. I’m not Jewish — even though growing up I always wanted to be Jewish or black — but I am reading up on the rise of Nazism in Germany and the continued reluctance of a lot of American Jewish conservatives to join the broad anti-MAGA democratic coalition is alarming.
It would greatly help the cause of American democracy if conservative American Jewish people who aren’t currently #NeverTrumpers would stop supporting Trump and MAGA because, well, the movement is growing more and more hostile to Jewish people.
Why this “come to Jesus” (wink) moment hasn’t happened yet is very curious. But I think it’s definitely something to look out for. Whenever it happens, it’s probably going to happen a lot later than it should and could be very nasty and jarring.
The way it might ultimately happen will be not that Jewish conservatives leave MAGA, but, rather, they will be purged from even being anti-anti-MAGA. There may come a tipping point when MAGA is actively going out of its way to be hostile to even otherwise extremely sympathetic Jewish conservatives.
But, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. Maybe the alarming rise of antisemitism in MAGA will abait and we will drift towards an autocracy more like Turkey or Hungary than Nazi Germany.
I’m still very alarmed, though. No good will come of this.
I’ve seen enough — MAGA is American Nazism. Or, put another way, the conditions are there for us to look back after all and said and done and realize that they signs were all there that MAGA would ultimately do as much damage to humanity as the Nazis did.
For the time being, MAGA remains a nebulous hodged podge of hate united by devoted to one man — ding-dong Donald Trump. And because of that there are still a number of different ways this could all end up.
One is Trump either is defeated by Ron DeSantis or something else forces him into political retirement and we go more of a Turkey or Hungary route. We’ll still be an autocratic illiberal “democracy” but we won’t suffer some of the fascist excesses that I fear might happen. Things will be more gradual. It won’t be until 10 or so years into DeSantis’ reign that it will become clear that we’re going to end up a lot more like Putin’s Russia that we could possibly imagine now.
Then there is the very dark Trump Endgame.
Actually there are a number of different scenarios associated with Trump. One is, Trump, unto himself, starts a civil war and we bomb ourselves into oblivion as Blue States and Red States fight it out. This Second American Civil War might happen for two reasons.
One would be Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that Blue States decide to bounce. The OTHER way we might have a civil war is Trump wins fair and square, but his second term agenda is so fascist, so radical that…Blue States decide to bounce.
Or, I suppose, Trump manages NOT to start a civil war, gets into office and we all wait to see how his equally bonkers and autocratic veep is able to do what once president that Trump was too stupid and lazy to do.
But having said all that, the fact remains — MAGA and Nazism are identical, at least in my mind. I find it hilarious how there are so many well meaning MAGA cocksuckers who are surprised by such comparisons and they are very heartfelt, earnest and patronizing in there efforts to talk to me. I’m sure there were similar Nazis back in the late 1920s and early 1930s as the Nazis grew in power. They often say things like, “Why do they hate us?” Or they get all touchy-feeling and act like it’s all a simple misunderstanding.
Well, fuck that.
There’s going to come a point when if you an earnest, well meaning MAGA person or one of those comically clueless anti-anti-MAGA people that you’re going to have to have a come to Jesus moment one way or another. You’re either going to have to go all-in with MAGA (Nazism) or you’re going to have to turn your back on it all.
There won’t be this fuzy, gray area where you think you have plausible deniability about if you’re a fucking American Nazi or not. Either you are or you aren’t.
We’re careening towards a very dark, very turbulent future where the sides will be just as clearly marked as they were in the 1930s and 1940s. No more quibbling or dodging what’s going on — are you a MAGA Nazi or are you not?
I can not predict the future. In fact, I’m almost always, always wrong. But I am growing more and more alarmed by the demostrable instability in the United States as we careen into the 2024 presidential campaign.
The idea that malignant ding-dong Trump is warming to the siren call of antisemitism in the guise of incel MAGA superfan Nick Fuentes is definitely a “Not great, Bob” moment in modern American politics. That Trump — who has a Jewish daughter he loves so bad that he apparently wants to marry her if he could — would listen to an antisemite like Fuentes is both alarming and perplexing.
It’s a real head scratcher, that.
But it does align with my personal belief that we all way, way overestimate Trump’s abstract cognitive abilities. He is nothing more than a malignant Chancy Gardner from Being There. That’s it — he’s dumb, lazy and pretty much what you see is what you get.
His political acumen is nothing more than a grunt. All of this hidden, of course, because he doesn’t have to do anything but play himself and the bonkers racist misogynistic white Christian hordes will continue to support him because he’s nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for their rage against the browning of America.
He’s not a Great Man of history because he just rides the wave of history, he doesn’t direct it like, say, someone like Hitler might. If Trump was a Great Man, he would be cruising into his third term at the moment, consolidating power ever more tightly along the way.
But, as it is, Trump is kind of limping along, listening to antisemites and ranting about how the “woke cancel culture mob” is out to get him and all other God fearing people. Ugh.
I simply can not figure out if Trump’s historical and political purpose is to simply be a transitional figure that guides America in to fascist autocracy or if he’s supposed to be the reason, unto himself, that we have a Second American Civil War.
It really could go either way.
At the moment, I still lean towards the peaceful establishment of an American Fourth Reich. There will be a lot of grumbling on Twitter — if it still exists at that point — about various Blue states leaving the Union…but in the end, Blue states just don’t have it in them. They’ll bend a knee to autocratic, antisemitic MAGA fascism and at least 1 million wealthy liberals will “vote with their feet” the moment we realize after Election Day 2024 what’s about to happen.
I say this believing that the CONDITIONS exist for a full-fledged National Divorce and, as such, Second American Civil War. That would, of course, prompt a Third World War and the DPRK probably lobing a few H-bombs in the direction of the United States as well.
I know — I KNOW — that sounds hysterical at the moment, but I’m just using existing trends and extrapolating them to their logical conclusion around 2024 – 2025.
Anyway, I suppose something could happen to at least punt all this down the road a little bit, maybe yet another POTUS election cycle. I have a novel I’d like to sell and see on the shelves, so I definitely have a vested interest in their NOT being a 2ACW.
Is it possible that as it becomes clear that Ron DeSantis is the only way that Republicans can win the White House 2024…that NOW Trump will face accountability? Will, magically, the wheels of justice begin to turn faster and suddenly throughout 2023 Trump might actually be indicted a few times?
Maybe.
But there are a few problems with this.
One is obvious — any criminal accountability for Trump will turn him into a martyr and the base of the Republican Party will cling to him even fucking tighter. The other is not as obvious, but just as certain — barring something really unexpected, rather than forcing Trump into political retirement, DeSantis winning the nomination would just cause Trump to jump to the Patriot Party.
And, remember, one of the reasons why I think we might have a civil war starting in 2024 – 2025 is Republicans, probably using the newly-validated “Independent Legislature” concept will brazenly steal the the 2024 election. To the point that the country buckles into Turner Diaries-like chaos. (I’ve never read that book, but it’s a shorthand for my worst nightmares about the future of America even though it’s politics are at the far end of the exact opposite of the political spectrum from mine.)
Anyway — the point is, Trump isn’t going anywhere.
He is either going to be the nominee in 2024, or he’ll destroy the Republican Party in the process. And, really, my only question about Trump is — was his historical purpose to be a transitional figure in America’s descent into autocracy, or is he meant to cause a civil war?
Regardless, we’ve officially entered a very, very bumpy time in American history. We either slide into autocracy, have a civil war or maybe have a military junta of some sort. But the America that we have known since the end of the First American Civil War is running on fumes into a dark, dark future. Anything can and will happen and the sooner you start to game out what you’re going to do when the so-called “Fourth Turning” happens, the better.
I don’t believe in the concept of the “Fourth Turning” — it’s just astrology for dudes. But is an effective shorthand for the potential clusterfuck we face in late 2024, early 2025.
One place to keep an eye around that timeframe is New York City. I say this because not only is a lot of Right wing media based out of NYC, but the flagship Trump Tower is there, too. So if the country begins to collapse because of the pressures of the 2024 presidential cycle, then I could see the possibility of there being a popular revolt in NYC directed at Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and Trump Tower.
This sounds very, very fantastical at the moment, but, as they say, one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so…it’s at least possible? As I keep saying, I still don’t think there’s going to be a National Divorce or Second American Civil War. There may be rolling political violence like Bárbara F. Walter keeps writing about, but not the full-scale civil war that I’m nervous about.
Blues just don’t have it in them.
And, yet, if it becomes clear that either the 2024 election is going to be brazenly stolen or the new, incoming MAGA POTUS is going to be really, really radical in their policies…it’s possible, just possible that there might be a massive groundswell for a National Divorce in Blue states — with California and New York City being the two places where the bolts begin to pop off of the country in a rather conspicuous manner.
I don’t know, we don’t quite know the final elements of what will happen in 2024 — especially like what SCOTUS will rule on the “Independant Legislature” concept — so….lulz? I’m always, always wrong and any “Fourth Turning” (giggle) is about 18 months from now. But I would suggest you think seriously about getting the fuck out of the United States if you have the means.
I believe that the so-called “Fourth Turning” is astrology for dudes, but it’s a useful shorthand for what I believe may happen in late 2024 – early 2025 between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
Now, I can’t predict the future. So, lulz, I’m probably wrong. The following is a mixture of entertainment and wild speculation. I’m just working on the assumption that we won’t dodge the bullet that we dodged in 2020 – 2021.
Anyway, with out of the way, a key place to keep an eye on is California. There are two ways that we might find ourselves talking about a Secessionist Crisis when it comes to California. One is, the agenda for the incoming MAGA president is so radical that it forces the issue, while the other is the Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that we all start thinking about Blues leaving the Union.
And, what’s more, there’s the issue of what the agenda of California leaving the Union might be. Would it be just to establish its own nation-state or would it be to join forces with other Blue states to form a new Blue Union? That is really up the air this far out. It could go either way.
Honestly, I just don’t see this happening. Rather than put up a fight, millions of wealthy liberals will actually do what they’ve been grumbling about doing for years now — vote with their feet. Blue states bend a knee to fascism and we wake up 20 years from now with the same POTUS who is, for some reason, babbling about “deNazifying” Canada of all places.
But this particular nightmare scenario is at least something to think about going forward over the course of the next two or so years. Remember, though, I’m always, always, wrong. So, lulz.
I don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene because on one hand, she’s just another deranged MAGA moron and on the other she seems to want to be a real player in Washington. The only reason why this is both alarming and unnerving is she not only has incoming Speaker Kevin McCarthy over a barrel, making all these demands of him, but she’s also apparently in the running to be Trump’s 2024 veep.
MTG
Oh boy.
So, there there is a good chance that we may trade ding-dong Trump for ding-dong MTG at some point after 2025. Should she — gulp — become president either she would be a far more effective version of Trump or she would name someone like fat fuck Mike Pompeo to be her veep and he would would behind the throne. I call this the “Velvet Fist” scenario.
I just don’t know. While I do think it is very, very possible that MTG could become POTUS by being Trump’s veep, her actual ability to turn America into some sort of MAGA hellscape is debatable. But anything is possible, I guess.
I will note, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood that America will have a Second American Civil War increases significantly. Let that marinate in your mind whenever thinking of MTG as POTUS one day.
Ahh, the curious case of one Donald J. Trump in the context of America’s inevitable slouch towards autocracy. It is easy to see Trump as “America’s Hitler” but the more I read up on Hitler, the more I have my doubts. Hitler was a Great Man of History. He bent history to his will and road it like a tamed tiger to great heights.
Reasons why we may have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
Meanwhile, ding-dong Trump is too lazy and stupid to do even the most basic of Great Man plays. I mean, if Trump really was America’s Hitler he would currently be working on his plans for his third term in office and rounding up people like me so we could be put in an ever-burgeoning camp system.
While Hitler was a Great man of History, Trump just limps along, being a vessel, an avatar for the rage of your typical white Christian who is fed up with the so-called “woke cancel culture mob.” He doesn’t do anything. Yeah, he almost destroyed American democracy in 2021, but he was so vague and half-assed in his efforts — waiting until the very, very last possible moment to stay in power — that he was bound to fail.
I would like to take moment to note that one a macro level, it definitely seems as though January 6th, 2021 was the high point of MAGA. Or, if nothing else, it was the one moment when Trump actually had a chance to break the back of American democracy once and for all and effective rule as a dictator, at least on a political level.
We came so close to the end of our democratic republic. So. Very. Close.
Trump’s second term after January 6th would have been violent and chaotic, with the country constantly being on the edge of civil war as Trump consolidated power.
But being a lazy idiot, Trump blew it and so here we are. I think the question we should be asking ourselves is not “Is Trump America’s Hitler” but, “Who will be America’s Putin?”
That’s because it’s more likely at this point that the United States is going to become an “illiberal democracy” like found in Russia as opposed to some MAGA themed Nazi state. Although MAGA becoming American Nazism is still a very real possibility for various reasons because of America’s original sin of race….I think we’re probably going to just slide into autocracy without a shot being fired.
Gradually at first, then more rapidly, someone like DeSantis — or name a Republican — throttle what’s left of American democracy and that will be that. Millions of wealth Blues will flee the country for various parts of the globe. The Constitution will be changed with the addition of MAGA-themed Enabling Acts and away we go.
Some 20 years from now, we’ll wake up and DeSantis — or someone like him — will still be a MAGA POTUS and he’ll be explaining to us why we absolutely have to “deNazify” Canada for this or that reason. I wish I was joking. I’m not. That definitely seems to be our immutable fate at the moment
In fact, the only wild card is, and always has been, Trump himself. If we’re going to have a civil war it will be because either Trump and his allies steal the 2024 election in a rather brazen manner, or their incoming agenda is so fascist in nature that Blue states begin to leave the Union.
And there is, of course, the issue of the “Independent Legislature” concept that SCOUTS is going to take up on December 7th. If they agree with that radical, bonkers concept…the idea that Blues might leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 grows exponentially more likely.
At the moment, of course, all that sounds bonkers. And maybe it is. But it’s definitely something to think about going forward as we careen as a nation towards a very turbulent and dark future.
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